The final month of the NBA regular season is upon us. The playoff races are on. Home-court advantage, top-six seeding and play-in positioning are all on the line.
For the rest of the NBA? It’s high time to Capture the Flagg.
Cooper Flagg is the 18-year-old Duke phenom who, despite a recent ankle injury, remains the consensus No. 1 overall pick at this juncture of the season. The two-way star should still be in high school and yet can reasonably claim to be the best player in college hoops, averaging 18.9 points, 7.5 rebounds and 4.1 assists for one of the top teams in the nation. Despite turning 18 in December, he leads the NCAA in box plus-minus and ranks among college basketball’s best in just about every advanced metric on the planet.
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The NBA has tried to curb outright tanking for prospects like Flagg. Beginning in 2019, the league office capped odds at landing the No. 1 pick at 14 percent for the bottom three teams, removing the incentive to win the race to the very bottom.
But there are plenty of intriguing scenarios that will make the draft lottery must-see TV.
The best team in the NBA, the Oklahoma City Thunder, could land the No. 1 overall pick. So could Victor Wembanyama’s club in San Antonio.
To see how, let’s take a dive into the lottery situation with about 15 games to go for each team. The strength of schedule data comes from Positive Residual’s handy metric that accounts for rest days, game location, altitude and team strength.
THE FOUR FLAGG FAVORITES
Utah Jazz (own)
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Current record: 15-54 (No. 1)
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Current No. 1 odds: 14% (tied No. 1)
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Remaining SOS: .541 (7th hardest)
The Jazz have never selected No. 1 in the draft during the team’s 51-year history dating back to their days in New Orleans. Could this be the year?
There’s an alternate universe in which this pick goes to, you guessed it, the Oklahoma City Thunder. Back in 2021, the Jazz paired a future first-round pick with Derrick Favors to Oklahoma City in order to take his money off the books. Utah’s front office was wise enough to put protections on it for picks 1-10 in the first two years of eligibility (2024, 2025) and 1-8 in the year after (2026). If the Jazz had only placed protections in Year 1, this would have been OKC’s pick to make.
Protections may not have seemed all that necessary at the time of the deal. Remember, Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert were still on the team and unlikely to be bad enough to make an unprotected future first-round pick all that valuable. Maybe they knew they’d make a hard pivot a year later.
Washington Wizards (own pick)
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Current record: 15-52 (No. 2)
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Current No. 1 odds: 14% (tied No. 1)
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Remaining SOS: .458 (9th easiest)
A quick stroll down memory lane. Remember in 2020, when the Wizards sent John Wall and a 2023 first-round pick to the Houston Rockets for Russell Westbrook? Thank goodness the Wizards slapped some 2025 protections on that pick, because otherwise, this wouldn’t be theirs to select.
The first-round pick sent in that trade has not been conveyed because it was 1-14 protected in 2023, 1-12 protected in 2024 and 1-10 protected this year. The pick switched hands a couple times — the New York Knicks currently hold the rights to the protected first-round pick, which will turn into two second-round picks if it lands inside the top-6 picks in the 2026 draft — and Wizards fans have to be thrilled the team put aggressive protections on it.
At 15-52, the Wizards have a solid chance at maintaining the 14 percent odds even though they play in the Eastern Conference and thus have a soft-ish schedule going forward. It will be interesting to see the active rosters for Washington and Utah on Wednesday night.
Charlotte Hornets (own)
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Current record: 17-50 (No. 3)
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Current No. 1 odds: 14.0% (tied No. 1)
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Remaining SOS: .509 (14th hardest)
With new owners Rick Schnall and Gabe Plotkin taking over for Michael Jordan, winning the rights to the No. 1 overall pick to select Flagg, the in-state hero, could be the big splash the franchise so desperately needs.
Since taking Larry Johnson No. 1 overall in 1991, Charlotte has always been the bridesmaid, not the bride, when it comes to the NBA Draft. The franchise picked second in the Victor Wembanyama draft, second in the Anthony Davis draft, second in the Dwight Howard draft and second in the Shaquille O’Neal draft. In related news, the team hasn’t reached the Eastern Conference finals in its 35-year history.
Despite being in the East, the Hornets face a fairly tough schedule with games against OKC and Boston (twice) in their future. The Jazz better watch their backs.
New Orleans Pelicans (own)
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Current record: 18-51 (No. 4)
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Current No. 1 odds: 12.5% (No. 4)
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Remaining SOS: .535 (10th hardest)
What a disastrous season. After the Dejounte Murray torn Achilles and the Brandon Ingram trade, the Pelicans ensured they’d never see the vaunted Murray-Ingram-Williamson trio play a single game together in New Orleans. Injuries continue to plague the Pelicans this season, with the franchise having lost a Western-Conference-high $55 million worth of salary missed due to injury, per Spotrac.com.
Luckily for them, the Pelicans still have the full rights to their first-round pick, which is not something the Atlanta Hawks can say after they traded for Murray in 2022 (more on that later). Despite winning the Anthony Davis and Zion Williamson sweepstakes in 2012 and 2019, respectively, New Orleans won just five playoff games with Davis in uniform and not a single one with Zion. Maybe Flagg can change the tide in the Big Easy. With one of the tougher remaining schedules in the league, they could be atop the draft lottery come May.
FLIRTING WITH FLAGG
Brooklyn Nets (own)
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Current record: 23-45 (Tied No. 5)
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Current No. 1 odds: 9.7%
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Remaining SOS: .484 (12th easiest)
Cooper Flagg would quickly change what is currently the most anonymous team in the NBA.
Apologies to D’Angelo Russell, but Brooklyn could use a new face of the franchise. After sending the No. 3 pick to Houston (Reed Sheppard) in last year’s draft as part of the ill-fated James Harden trade, the Nets will thankfully be in control of their first-rounder this season. If the team was still in New Jersey, I could see how landing Rutgers’ Ace Bailey or Dylan Harper might be seen as a soothing consolation to the Flagg sweepstakes. But this is all about the Duke kid.
Toronto Raptors (own)
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Current record: 24-45 (No. 7)
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Current No. 1 odds: 7.5%
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Remaining SOS: .392 (Easiest)
When Andrea Bargnani was your last No. 1 pick, I can understand why the Raptors might not be fully committed to the tank. Instead, by trading for Brandon Ingram and signing him to a three-year extension, they seem to be fully committed to being mid. Counterpoint: They haven’t even played him yet and seem more than content to keep him and his ankle on ice.
Which might be a good thing if they’re trying to land the No. 1 pick. Despite the Raptors routinely benching their best players in crunchtime, victories have been piling up — winners in six of their last nine — thanks to a cupcake schedule. Threatening to ruin their pingpong-ball dreams, only two of their final 13 matchups will come against winning ball clubs. Let’s see how creative the Raps can get.
Philadelphia 76ers (own)
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Current record: 23-45 (No. 6)
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Current No. 1 odds: 9.8%
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Remaining SOS: .436 (3rd easiest)
Can you imagine if the 76ers lost out on Cooper Flagg because they wanted to get off Al Horford’s contract when Flagg was 13 years old? Thankfully for Philadelphia, that won’t happen. The Sixers owe this pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder as part of the Horford salary-dump trade, but luckily implemented top-6 protection on the first-rounder. The Thunder could be realistically looking at a lottery pick after winning the 2025 NBA Finals. If the pick doesn’t convey this season, it will roll over to 2026 and we do this all over again.
The Sixers have essentially pulled the plug on the season, shutting down Paul George and Joel Embiid for the season (Tyrese Maxey next?). Part of that calculus may have to do with their soft schedule going forward (third easiest) and their precious chances at capturing Flagg.
TEAMS IN LOTTERY LIMBO
Miami Heat (own)
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Current record: 29-39 (tied No. 9)
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Current No. 1 odds: 3.8%
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Remaining SOS: .413 (2nd easiest)
The bottom has fallen out ever since they traded Jimmy Butler. Sitting on an eight-game losing streak, Erik Spoelstra has never dropped this many games in a row in his illustrious coaching career. They’re not outright tanking, which, as noble as that might be, doesn’t say much about the quality of this once-proud roster. The Heat are just not competitive anymore.
The slide is poor timing because in all likelihood the Heat would rather make the playoffs and owe their 2025 lottery-protected pick to OKC and be done with that Sam Presti obligation. Yes, if the Heat miss the playoffs, they will get an outside shot at Cooper Flagg, but there’s a potentially devastating cost: OKC then receives Miami’s 2026 unprotected first-round pick in the A.J. Dybantsa sweepstakes.
Chicago Bulls (own)
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Current record: 29-39 (Tied No. 9)
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Current No. 1 odds: 3.7%
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Remaining SOS: .503 (15th hardest)
When the Bulls raise Derrick Rose’s jersey to the rafters, will they envision saving a spot for the team’s next No. 1 overall pick? We’ll see how the pingpong balls shake out, but the Bulls have their work cut out for them. From last season’s team, they traded both Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan to Sacramento and held on to Nikola Vucević at the deadline, seemingly having one foot in and one foot out of a full-blown reset.
Although president of basketball operations Artūras Karnišovas declared last month the Bulls are “not OK with being in the middle,” they’re in the thick of the standings and rank smack in the middle in terms of strength of schedule going forward. That’s about where they were when they won the chance to draft Rose in 2008 — ninth.
Portland Trail Blazers (own)
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Current record: 30-39 (No. 11)
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Current No. 1 odds: 2.0%
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Remaining SOS: .538 (9th hardest)
The Blazers surprised the NBA universe by going a league-best 10-1 over an 11-game stretch, and have been streaky ever since.
As someone who contributes to their broadcast, I totally understand anyone’s difficulty in pegging this team. As long as Deni Avdija — averaging 20.9 points, 9.6 rebounds and five assists in March — is on the floor, they will be competitive. Rather than bench their best players down the stretch like their opponents, the Blazers pulled out wins against Toronto and Washington recently. Trekking against a tough schedule going forward, it’ll be an uphill climb for Portland to make it to the West play-in even if Avdija’s playing at an All-Star level.
Dallas Mavericks (own)
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Current record: 33-36
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Current No. 1 odds: 1.0% (No. 13)
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Remaining SOS: .498 (15th easiest)
My how cruel the basketball gods have been. As ESPN’s Bobby Marks pointed out, the Mavericks are in danger of forfeiting games due to a lack of available players, which, I guess, would invent a new level of tanking. In any event, losing games will help their Cooper cause. Something — ANYTHING — to wake Mavs fans out of this nightmare season.
Dallas owns its first-round picks in 2025 and 2026, so a sudden all-out rebuild can’t be out of the realm of possibility. Anthony Davis appears ready for a G League ramp up, but the Mavs might just shut this whole thing down and hope this atrocity turns into some lottery luck. Remember, they flagrantly tanked in 2023 and ended up with prized Duke big man, Dereck Lively II. Is Flagg next?
THE TERRIFYING SCENARIOS
San Antonio Spurs (own and Atlanta)
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Current record: 28-39 (No. 8)
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Current No. 1 odds: 6% (6% own + ATL’s)
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Remaining SOS: .559 (own), .474 (ATL)
Victor Wembanyama and Cooper Flagg? Oh, it’s possible. After Wembanyama was shut down with deep vein thrombosis in his shoulder and De’Aaron Fox opted for pinkie surgery, the Spurs are fielding a B-Team these days.
Should the Spurs miss the jackpot with their own pick, they can still land the No. 1 overall selection, thanks to the 2022 Dejounte Murray trade. In that transaction, the Spurs received Danilo Gallinari and four first-round picks, including Atlanta’s unprotected 2025 pick.
But getting Flagg with Atlanta’s pick will be a long shot. Since trading Murray to the Pels this past summer, the Hawks have hovered just below .500 and seem locked for the play-in tournament (currently the seventh seed). If the Hawks sink in the play-in and miss the playoffs, the Spurs can pray Atlanta wins the lottery for the second year in a row, which has happened more often than you think. The Cleveland Cavaliers did it in 2013 (Anthony Bennett) and 2014 (Andrew Wiggins, traded to Minny for Kevin Love). In 1992 and 1993, the Orlando Magic picked first to get Shaquille O’Neal and Chris Webber, the latter of whom they traded to Golden State for Anfernee Hardaway and three firsts.
Yeah, a Cooper Flagg and Victor Wembanyama frontcourt is in play. You thought the Tim Duncan and David Robinson combo was a legendary frontline. Can you imagine if Flagg and Wemby played their entire careers together?
OKC Thunder (Philadelphia’s and LA Clippers’)
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Current record: 56-12
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Current No. 1 odds: 0.0% (LAC in playoffs)
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Remaining SOS: Philly .436 (3rd easiest); LAC .558 (5th hardest)
Flagg joining the MVP frontrunner Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, All-Star Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren is also not out of the question. Yes, the Thunder have Philadelphia’s first-round pick this season, but it is top-6 protected, meaning it will only convey to OKC if it lands outside the top half-dozen slots on draft lottery night. Simply put, OKC can’t win the Flagg sweepstakes with Philly’s pick.
But the Thunder have another sneaky shot at the No. 1 pick via the L.A. Clippers.
In the 2019 Paul George trade, the Thunder netted the rights to swap the Clippers’ first-round pick in 2025, which, as of now, has a 16.7 percent chance of landing in the lottery, per dunksandthrees.com projections. Currently, the Clippers occupy the No. 8 seed in the West and have a much tougher schedule than Golden State and Minnesota in the fight for the coveted No. 6 seed. And Sacramento, who is sitting 3.5 games back at No. 9, has an easier schedule, too (and there’s an LAC-SAC date on April 11). If the Clips don’t lock in a playoff spot at the No. 6 seed, they are a bad play-in tournament away from handing OKC a literal lottery ticket. And given James Harden’s age and the injury history of Kawhi Leonard, a late-season tailspin isn’t outside the realm of possibility.
As an aside, in trading a boatload of picks to OKC for George, did the Clippers not learn their lesson from 2011? That year, the Clippers packaged their unprotected 2011 first-round pick to Cleveland to acquire Mo Williams and shed salary. The Clippers finished 32-50, giving them the eighth-best odds to “win” the lottery. And that, my friends, is how the Cavs landed Duke’s one-and-done phenom with the No. 1 overall pick, Kyrie Irving. Will Clippers history repeat itself?
Houston Rockets (via Phoenix)
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Current record: 44-25
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Current No. 1 odds: 1.5% (No. 12)
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Remaining SOS: Phoenix .598 (hardest)
The Rockets are another top team that could plausibly land Flagg this summer, thanks to the Phoenix Suns’ continued mediocrity. It went a little under the radar, but this past June the Rockets acquired the Nets’ 2025 swap rights with Phoenix in a rare trade involving just draft picks.
That’s a low-key valuable draft asset once you consider the Suns have the hardest schedule in the NBA going forward with a collective win percentage of .598 and have another matchup against Houston on March 30. Phoenix owner Mat Ishbia paying $366 million in payroll (with tax) to miss the playoffs and watch a West rival add Flagg with the Suns’ pick would be an all-time fumble.
Other potential playoff/play-in teams to monitor that could get in the Flagg Sweepstakes: Sacramento (top-12 protected), Golden State (top-10 protected) and Orlando.