Opening Day is less than two weeks away on March 27, but for two of the teams in the National League, the season starts much sooner. The Dodgers and Cubs will begin this year’s regular-season action with two games in Tokyo on Tuesday and Wednesday.
With meaningful baseball just around the corner, Yahoo Sports’ MLB experts are going team by team to preview the season, offering a best-case scenario, worst-case scenario, make-or-break player and season prediction for each team.
We begin with the National League. Check back next week for the teams in the American League.
National League previews by division: NL East | NL Central | NL West
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NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST
Atlanta Braves
Projected record (per FanGraphs, as of March 15): 94-68, 92.6% odds to make the playoffs, 62.0% odds to win the division
What happened last year? The injury gods cast decimation and destruction upon the Atlanta Braves, as reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr., hard-throwing ace Spencer Strider and a cavalcade of other regulars spent significant time on the shelf. A career year from DH Marcell Ozuna and a Cy Young-winning bounce-back from Chris Sale squeaked the Braves into a playoff spot before a wild-card round sweep defeat against the San Diego Padres sent Atlanta packing.
Best-case scenario: Acuña and Strider, two of the game’s best players in 2023, come back with a vengeance. The rest of Atlanta’s still-loaded core — Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, Sean Murphy, Michael Harris, Ozuna, Sale, Matt Olson, Jurickson Profar, Orlando Arcia, Reynaldo Lopez and Spencer Schwellenbach, who have all performed at an All-Star level in one or both of the past two seasons — stays healthy and productive. The Braves win 110 games and the World Series.
Worst-case scenario: Atlanta sinks to fourth place as injuries expose a concerning lack of organizational depth. Acuña, like the last time he returned from ACL surgery in 2022, needs a few months to recapture his electrifying best. The enormous uptick in year-over-year innings for Atlanta’s three best returning arms — Sale (70 more in ‘24), Lopez (69 more), Schwellenbach (58 more) — works on a tape delay to undermine the rotation. The catching situation, a key dynamic in this era of Braves baseball, struggles with the departure of Travis d’Arnaud and the recent injury to Sean Murphy. Blooper, the team’s confrontational mascot, is indicted for tax fraud and ends up serving a year in the slammer.
Make-or-break player: Chris Sale. It was a magical 2024 for the limbed-out lefty. After a half-decade of injuries, the sidewinder came roaring back in his age-35 season to lead the league in strikeouts, post a 2.38 ERA in 177 2/3 innings and earn his first career Cy Young. But can he do it again? Because, well, the Braves kinda need him to. A healthy Chris Sale is a monster; a hurt Chris Sale is a monstrous issue.
Season prediction: Division champs and a nice playoff run. The Braves simply have too many good offensive pieces. Last year was an injury-heavy aberration that can’t possibly happen again. Granted, the lack of depth beyond the starting lineup is a real concern, but there’s just too much established talent on this team to seriously wager against them.
Philadelphia Phillies
Projected record: 87-75, 68.9% odds to make the playoffs, 20.6% odds to win the division
What happened last year? The Phillies won the NL East for the first time since 2011 but crumbled against the Mets in a strikeout-filled NLDS capitulation.
Best-case scenario: A forest of greased poles and a parade down Broad Street. Veteran hitters Bryce Harper, JT Realmuto, Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos and Trea Turner continue to fend off Father Time. The younger trio of Brandon Marsh, Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott reach their full potential. And the pitching staff, which has a shot to be historically good, is boosted by offseason acquisition Jesus Luzardo and top pitching prospect Andrew Painter.
Worst-case scenario: Continuity begets stagnation, and the Phillies miss out on October for the first time since 2021. The bullpen misses Jeff Hoffman and can’t finish games. All-world hurler Zack Wheeler starts showing signs of wear in his age-35 season. The bottom of the lineup, which underwhelmed in 2024, drops down another tier. An important player or two gets hurt, and the Phillies spend October on the couch watching the Eagles and “Landman” instead of at Citizens Bank Park.
Make-or-break player: Trea Turner. The twitchy shortstop, who is under contract in Philly for another nine seasons, had a topsy-turvy second year in the City of Brotherly Love. He was money in the first half but had a below-average hitting line after the All-Star break. Finding a sense of consistency will be huge for Turner, who could soon be thrust back into the leadoff spot.
Season prediction: A wild-card spot and a nice playoff run. This Phillies club is, year-over-year, the most similarly built roster in baseball. Early in the winter, it appeared that president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski was willing to oversee a roster shake-up. But that never came to fruition, and this Phillies club is going into battle with the same soldiers. Once again, the simple, all-encompasing question for this group is: Do they strike out a prohibitive amount in October? Because while the window isn’t closing, the future is most certainly getting hazier. Realmuto and Schwarber are free agents after this season, while the core of other high-paid vets clicks one year closer to decline. The clock is ticking. Can the Phillies make the most of their opportunity?
New York Mets
Projected record: 86-76, 63.8% odds to make the playoffs, 17.1% odds to win the division
What happened last year? The OMG/Grimace Mets captivated baseball and the Big Apple on their way to an improbable October run that crashed to a halt in the NLCS due to a dearth of pitching. Then they gave Juan Soto $765 million in December.
Best-case scenario: An overpowering offense leads this club to a division crown and the first World Series title of the Moneybag Mets era. The Soto-led lineup rakes the way it should, with Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo and Mark Vientos all contributing All-Star-level performances. The MLB pitching coaches conjure more magic from what looks to be an undermanned rotation. Sean Manaea’s oblique strain — he’s expected to be out until April — doesn’t linger, and the lefty hurler continues his brilliance from 2024. Jeff McNeil writes his own Latin pop smash hit, and the Mets kick off an era of dominance in Queens.
Worst-case scenario: A starting pitching catastrophe drops the Mets to an embarrassing fourth-place finish. Manaea and fellow injured starter Frankie Montas turn out to be unavailable for quite a while. None of the other rotation pieces steps up. Alonso’s slow offensive decline continues. Lindor is simply good instead of an MVP candidate. Vientos can’t back up his breakout year. The bullpen leaks runs, and everything goes sideways by the All-Star break.
Make-or-break player: Kodai Senga. In 2023, the Japanese forkballer was a legitimate No. 1 starter, posting an ERA under 3.00 in 166⅓ innings. That earned him a runner-up Rookie of the Year finish and a handful of Cy Young votes. In 2024, Senga battled injuries all year and made just one regular-season start. He returned for a few postseason outings but didn’t look like the same guy. The Mets are desperate for a return to form, but the range of possible outcomes for Senga is downright chasmic right now.
Season prediction: A playoff appearance, a pretty good year, but one that falls short of expectations. The 2024 Mets ran out of gas because they ran out of pitching, an issue that doesn’t seem rectified five months after their NLCS defeat. Don’t get it twisted: This lineup rules, and the Soto Show is going to convert youngsters in New York to the Mets. But it’s difficult to imagine this starting rotation guiding the Mets through the October gauntlet to a World Series title.
Washington Nationals
Projected record: 72-90, 3.1% odds to make the playoffs, 0.2% odds to win the division
What happened last year? The Nats were aggressively meh in 2024, though a few bright spots such as James Wood and Dylan Crews provided encouraging glimpses of a better future.
Best-case scenario: A rejuvenating, surprising, against-the-odds playoff appearance. Wood and Crews are immediately franchise-changing, All-Star-level performers. Shortstop CJ Abrams proves that his stellar first half was the real deal. Nathaniel Lowe and Josh Bell, a pair of veteran sluggers added during the offseason, give the lineup some much-needed depth. Arms such as Jake Irvin, DJ Herz, Mitchell Parker and MacKenzie Gore continue to take steps forward while under-the-radar signings such as Mike Soroka, Trevor Williams and Shinnosuke Ogasawara contribute solid innings.
Worst-case scenario: A deflating fifth place in the NL East raises doubts about the organization’s immediate future. Wood and Crews show that their flaws — swing-and-miss and too many ground balls, respectively — are legitimate concerns. The starting pitching can’t hang, and the Nats are out of most games by the third inning. None of the other young players, such as Jacob Young, Luis Garcia or Keibert Ruiz, plays well enough to solidify themselves as key members of the next good Nats team.
Make-or-break player: MacKenzie Gore. Acquired in the Juan Soto deal, the 26-year-old lefty has shined in spurts but has yet to deliver a full season of excellence. Besides flamethrowing prospect Jarlin Susana, Gore is still D.C.’s best candidate to become a homegrown starting pitcher atop the rotation. That will happen only if he can figure out a way to get right-handed hitters out.
Season prediction: An invigorating, hope-building, fourth-place finish. This Nats team seems like a group on the brink that, with a handful of big-time free-agent additions, could’ve made some serious noise in the wild-card hunt. But there’s a dearth of obvious impact here, particularly on the pitching side. A strong step forward from Gore seems like an absolute must this year. The top objective for the 2025 Nats will be convincing the team’s ownership group that the 2026 Nats are worth investing in.
Miami Marlins
Projected record: 70-92, 1.8% odds to make the playoffs, 0.2% odds to win the division
What happened last year? Coming off a Cinderella playoff appearance in 2023, the Marlins … fired GM Kim Ng, got off to a horrendous start, traded away a treasure trove at the deadline and finished the season with 100 losses.
Best-case scenario: A cheeky, scrappy, fourth-place finish. The rotation could be pretty solid, especially if Sandy Alcantara looks like his old self after a year on the shelf and No. 2 starter Ryan Weathers sustains his spring training velocity jump. Shortstop Xavier Edwards and DH Jonah Bride, who are both coming off stealthy good offensive seasons, build on that to lead the offense.
Worst-case scenario: Worst team in MLB history. This offense could be a cataclysm, a mudslide, a no-good-very-bad-day. Only the Chicago White Sox are projected to have a soggier lineup. It’s really difficult to win baseball games when you don’t score runs.
Make-or-break player: Sandy Alcantara. The 2023 NL Cy Young winner missed all of 2024 while recovering from Tommy John surgery but was named Miami’s Opening Day starter way back on Feb. 13. He’s under team control through the end of 2027 at a very affordable price for a frontline arm. Considering that this Marlins front office has traded away anything of value in recent months, it’ll be interesting to see if/when they pull the ripcord on Alcantara if he has a strong first half.
Season prediction: The pitching is good enough to keep Miami from sinking to historic depths, but the Fish finish with the worst record in the NL. This Marlins team, unfortunately, is designed to lose, so they’ll probably do that a lot. New president of baseball operations Peter Bendix ripped this thing up from the studs to rebuild the organizational foundation from scratch. There are a few interesting players here and there, but it’s going to take a long while before baseball is relevant again in Miami. It seems unlikely that the players destined to change the fortunes of this bizarro franchise are currently employed by the Marlins.
NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL
Milwaukee Brewers
Projected record: 81-81, 33.7% odds to make the playoffs, 22.1% odds to win the division
What happened last year? After Craig Counsell bolted for Chicago and Corbin Burnes was traded right before spring training, the Brewers were written off by many entering 2024. Yet once again, their organizational excellence shined through as Milwaukee took advantage of the mediocrity surrounding it in the division and surged to an NL Central crown in Pat Murphy’s first year at the helm. A heartbreaking exit in the wild-card series preceded a winter that saw yet another wave of familiar faces depart, as shortstop Willy Adames left in free agency and closer Devin Williams was traded to the Yankees.
Best-case scenario: The meteoric ascent of 21-year-old Jackson Chourio continues, giving the Brewers another elite position player alongside star catcher William Contreras. The bullpen doesn’t miss a beat without Williams, and new lefties Nestor Cortes Jr. and Jose Quintana fortify a rotation that clearly needed reinforcements. Rhys Hoskins rediscovers his Philadelphia form and slugs a career-high 35 home runs, which helps to make up for Adames’ absence in the lineup. Fan favorites Christian Yelich and Brandon Woodruff return from their respective surgeries and perform at or near pre-injury levels, pushing Milwaukee to another 90-plus-win season and another division title. The Brewers win a playoff round or two before falling in October to one of the big-market behemoths in the NLCS.
Worst-case scenario: The bullpen regresses just enough without Williams, increasing the burden on a rotation that isn’t quite up to the task. Inconsistency on the mound is compounded by a lineup that falls off harshly after the first handful of hitters, as the bevy of 26-and-under bats fail to demonstrate further progress, leaving the offense in an unreliable state. Organizational competence prevents a totally dismal finish, but the Brewers are out of the mix for the division by September and aren’t nearly good enough to be relevant in what should be a vicious NL wild-card race.
Make-or-break player: Joey Ortiz. While it isn’t settled just yet, Ortiz appears to be the favorite to succeed Adames at shortstop after spending the bulk of his rookie year at third base. Acquired from Baltimore as part of the return for Corbin Burnes, Ortiz looked like quite the pickup when he posted an .891 OPS through the end of May, but he tailed off pretty hard at the plate in the second half. If Ortiz’s plus glove translates to shortstop and he can rediscover his first-half form offensively, the Brewers won’t miss Adames as much as you might expect.
Season prediction: An improved division makes for a more difficult path than last season. The Brewers stay competitive for much of the season and finish with a winning record but don’t have quite enough firepower to secure a wild-card spot.
St. Louis Cardinals
Projected record: 79-83, 23% odds to make the playoffs, 13.9% odds to win the division
What happened last year? The Cardinals improved by 12 wins from their stunningly bad 2023 campaign, yet the 2024 season felt like a similar slog. St. Louis then followed its snoozefest of a season by being the least active team of the winter. The NL Central collectively accounted for just 3.3% of all spending in free agency, lower than any other division, and the Cardinals were the most extreme case: They were the only team in baseball to not sign a single major-league free agent. And despite declaring their intention to trade third baseman Nolan Arenado, they were unable to do so before spring training, leaving their roster virtually unchanged outside of a few departures in free agency (Paul Goldschmidt, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson).
Best-case scenario: This is one of the more difficult teams for which to define a best-case scenario because of how this franchise has talked about its goals for 2025. With baseball operations scheduled to be turned over to Chaim Bloom from John Mozeliak after this season, the Cardinals are viewing this as a transition year of sorts, with the focus on improving the infrastructure at all levels of the organization while prioritizing the development of young players. That also means a willingness to part with veterans via trade, which they obviously attempted with Arenado.
But there is still enough talent on this roster to be competitive if everyone plays to their potential. So is the best case for this organization to keep all the veterans and make a surprise push for the division? Or would they be better served long-term to flop early and execute a dramatic sell-off at the deadline, similar to what they did in 2023? This question makes the Cardinals one of the more interesting teams to monitor over the first couple of months of the season.
Worst-case scenario: A worst-case scenario is a bit more clear: It’s a combination of poor performance from veterans that saps their trade value and failure by the key young players to take steps forward and solidify their roles on the roster. This outcome would result in St. Louis having missed their potential window to cash in on the likes of Ryan Helsley and Erick Fedde in exchange for young talent while also having massive questions about just how good the team is moving forward, which could delay a return to contention further into the future, something this fan base — one unused to long stretches of irrelevance — will have a tough time tolerating.
Make-or-break player: Jordan Walker. It’d be foolish to give up on this guy — he’s younger than top prospect Dylan Crews, for some perspective — but Walker’s sophomore season was undeniably a discouraging step back after a promising rookie campaign. There’s still a path for Walker to become a middle-of-the-order force for St. Louis, but it’s important he gets back on track in a season in which the franchise intends to give him every opportunity to reestablish his once sky-high value.
Season prediction: The Cardinals hover around .500 and are within shouting distance of the wild-card picture as the trade deadline approaches, but they opt to sell off as many veterans as possible in an effort to acquire as much young talent as they can entering the Chaim Bloom Era. These moves not only help boost the farm system but also clear the way for more at-bats and innings for younger players to get their feet wet in the big leagues in the second half. The Cards fade hard in the season’s second half, finishing fourth or fifth, but generally execute the organizational plan for the season and enter the winter with the intention of building a roster that can compete in 2026.
Chicago Cubs
Projected record: 84-78, 53.4% odds to make the playoffs, 40.7% odds to win the division
What happened last year? An ugly skid in May and June had the Cubs contemplating being sellers at last year’s trade deadline, but they instead held on to Cody Bellinger and added another bat in Isaac Paredes in an effort to stay in the mix. An 18-8 record in August appeared to vindicate that decision — the Cubs were two games behind the Mets on Sept. 1 — before the team collapsed in September and missed the postseason for the fifth time in six years. Knowing the clock is ticking entering the final year of his contract, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer acted with a sense of urgency this winter, most notably flipping Paredes and last year’s first-round pick, Cam Smith, to Houston for star outfielder Kyle Tucker in one of the biggest trades of the winter. The Cubs also added several veteran pieces (Ryan Pressly, Matthew Boyd, Justin Turner, Carson Kelly) in hopes of fueling a return to October.
Best-case scenario: The addition of Tucker and the debut of top prospect Matt Shaw elevate this lineup from its longstanding status as a merely solid unit to one of the best position-player groups in the National League. The rotation features three highly effective southpaws in Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele and Boyd, while Pressly anchors a much-improved bullpen that badly needed some veteran stability. Seiya Suzuki continues to rake in his new role as the nearly full-time DH, and Pete Crow-Armstrong’s bat improves to the point that, along with his elite speed and defense, he is one of the best all-around center fielders in baseball. The Cubs win more than 90 games and cruise to a division title in Year 2 under Craig Counsell, and Hoyer gets an extension.
Worst-case scenario: The impressive collection of talent on the roster once again fails to translate to wins. Tucker is good, but as the Cubs struggle to stay in the postseason race, the discussion around him changes from how he can help the Cubs win to whether they should trade him at the deadline. Meanwhile, Smith reaches the big leagues in a hurry and is raking right away for Houston. For Pressly, a decline that began quietly a year ago continues in earnest as he is unable to fix a bullpen that remains a clear weakness. Despite substantial hype, the team stays stuck in neutral, costing Hoyer his job and perhaps necessitating a more dramatic shake-up next winter.
Make-or-break player: Tucker. No need to overcomplicate this one: The 28-year-old outfielder is one of the more important players in baseball in 2025. It’s a lot to ask of a player who has largely played a supporting role in Houston, despite elite production that portrays a superstar, but it’s Tucker’s time to shine for a team that desperately needs him to live up to his potential right away. How he performs will have a big impact not only on the Cubs but also on how many hundreds of millions he commands on the open market next winter. He’s a big deal, plain and simple.
Season prediction: The Cubs finally break through and return to the playoffs as the division winner, albeit the one with the fewest wins and thus without a first-round bye. They notch at least their first playoff win since 2017 but don’t have enough to make the full-blown pennant run the fan base craves. It’s generally considered a successful and encouraging season, but Tucker’s pending departure in free agency casts a shadow of uncertainty entering the winter.
Cincinnati Reds
Projected record: 78-84, 19.5% odds to make the playoffs, 11.5% odds to win the division
What happened last year? The Reds failed to sustain the momentum garnered in 2023, with injuries and underperformance leading to an awful 9-18 stretch in May that effectively sunk any hope of being relevant in the NL race. In an effort to flush their disappointing campaign and get back on track, Cincinnati hired legendary skipper Terry Francona as its new manager, the first big move of what turned out to be an awfully busy offseason that featured several notable additions to both the lineup (Gavin Lux, Austin Hays, Jose Trevino) and pitching staff (Brady Singer, Taylor Rogers, Scott Barlow).
Best-case scenario: Francona not only energizes the franchise but also is able to effectively mix and match with the various chess pieces on the roster who don’t appear to fit together. Lux plays capable defense at multiple positions and hits like he did in the second half of last season, helping to power an offense that benefits significantly from the highly anticipated return of second baseman Matt McLain from injury. Hunter Greene delivers another All-Star campaign atop a rotation that stays healthy, and of course, Elly De La Cruz takes another leap, vaulting into top-five MVP consideration after finishing eighth in 2024. The Reds surge into the wild-card mix and snag a postseason spot in the final week of the season before an early October exit.
Worst-case scenario: Tito doesn’t make much of a difference, as the roster proves to be too flawed on the margins for the team to stay competitive. McLain is rusty in his return, which puts pressure on De La Cruz to shoulder the burden of the offense like he did a year ago. The lineup turns out to be notably undermanned relative to the other NL contenders, and either the bullpen or the rotation severely underwhelms, leaving the Reds stuck in or near fourth place once again, forced to contemplate another offseason of overhaul.
Make-or-break player: Jeimer Candelario. The first year of the corner infielder’s three-year, $45M deal with the Reds was one to forget, as Candelario ranked 165th out of 169 position players (minimum 450 plate appearances) with a -0.4 fWAR. As Cincinnati’s highest paid and most veteran position player, Candelario needs to get back to producing at even an average level if this lineup wants to be anything more than mediocre.
Season prediction: Francona does make a meaningful impact, guiding a hungry Reds club back to relevance in the NL postseason race before coming up short in September, similar to 2023 but with perhaps a few more wins. It’s another year of waiting for a franchise that hasn’t won a playoff series since 1995, the longest drought in MLB.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Projected record: 78-84, 19.8% odds to make the playoffs, 11.8% odds to win the division
What happened last year? Paul Skenes arrived, fundamentally changing the perception of the franchise’s contention window and amplifying Pittsburgh’s relevance tenfold. But the lackluster offense and porous bullpen resulted in an identical record to 2023: 76-86 with a last-place finish. Unsurprisingly (albeit still maddeningly), the Pirates continued to operate on the frugal side over the winter, spending roughly $20 million on six low-impact free agents, ranging from the return of franchise icon Andrew McCutchen to back-end lefty Andrew Heaney. Their biggest trade acquisition — infielder Spencer Horwitz — needed wrist surgery before spring training even started.
Best-case scenario: Skenes wins the NL Cy Young and headlines one of the best rotations in baseball, one that also features continued All-Star-level performance from Mitch Keller and another big step forward from Jared Jones. Prospects Bubba Chandler and Thomas Harrington dominate Triple-A and ultimately replace soft-tossing lefties Heaney and Bailey Falter in a rotation that is the envy of the league by season’s end. Oneil Cruz takes to center field brilliantly and becomes an absolute wrecking ball at the plate, carrying a lineup that is just good enough to support the outstanding pitching staff. The Pirates miss the postseason but win more games (83-plus) than they have since 2015 and demonstrate enough organizational growth to be genuinely optimistic about a postseason push in 2026.
Worst-case scenario: Some portion of the promising pitching staff either gets injured or regresses hard, putting pressure on an ill-equipped lineup to compensate for worse-than-expected run prevention. The Pirates finish in last place again and still don’t have a clear path to build an above-average offense, a problem made worse by the continued unwillingness to spend significant dollars in free agency.
Make-or-break player: David Bednar. Cruz is a quintessential X-factor due to his cathedral ceiling and frustrating floor, and the Pirates need a bunch of hitters to step up if they want to be competitive. But Bednar was the most glaring disappointment in a brutally bad bullpen last year, and the Pirates need him to bounce back. The Pittsburgh native was one of the best closers in baseball for two seasons before things went haywire in 2024, and if he can return to form, that could be the difference between this pitching staff being merely very good and legitimately excellent.
Season prediction: The Pirates’ pitching is formidable enough to avoid a third consecutive 76-win season, but the well-below-average offense keeps them from breaking through as an actual winning team. They win 77-80 games and finish in fourth or fifth place again, extending the National League’s longest playoff drought to a full decade.
NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST
Los Angeles Dodgers
Projected record: 97-65, 97.5% odds to make the playoffs, 84.2% odds to win the division
What happened last year? With Shohei Ohtani in the fold and recording the first 50-50 season in MLB history, the Dodgers cruised to yet another division title despite an onslaught of injuries in the starting rotation. They were challenged by the Padres in the five-game NLDS but handily defeated the Mets and then the Yankees to win the franchise’s first non-pandemic World Series title since 1988. Then they doubled down by soundly winning the offseason with the additions of Blake Snell, Roki Sasaki, Michael Conforto, Tanner Scott and more.
Best-case scenario: The Dodgers do what everyone is afraid of and absolutely demolish the rest of the league, setting the MLB record for wins in a season. Ohtani continues to be a machine, delivering his one-of-one prowess offensively while returning to being one of the league’s best on the mound. Sasaki is the runaway NL Rookie of the Year, Snell mows hitters down, and L.A. captures back-to-back World Series titles.
Worst-case scenario: Disaster strikes, and the Dodgers not only fail to make it back to the World Series but also get knocked out before reaching the NLCS. The team’s rotation is once again decimated by injuries, and the organization struggles to fill holes the way it managed in 2024. Sasaki isn’t ready for the big leagues and disappoints as L.A.’s big-money strategy fails to deliver.
Make-or-break player: Ohtani. It’s tough to envision a season in which Ohtani is a member of the Los Angeles Dodgers and isn’t the team’s make-or-break player. The Dodgers’ success is significantly attributed to his prolific greatness, and even with all the other amazing players on the roster, if Ohtani is unable to perform at his typical levels, L.A. will suffer. We’ve reached a point where his offensive numbers are pretty consistent from year to year, but it’ll be interesting to see how he performs once he resumes pitching full time. With the Dodgers slowing down his ramp-up, it remains to be seen when that will happen.
Season prediction: The Dodgers are an absolute force, and if they play to 90% of their capabilities, they’re going to put together one of the most impressive regular seasons in MLB history, and they’ll probably become the first team to repeat as World Series champions since the Yankees won three straight from 1998-2000. Even if things don’t fall completely into place for L.A. — that often happens in baseball — the Dodgers’ roster might be the best, top to bottom, in league history. They’re going to be a problem for the other 29 teams all year.
San Diego Padres
Projected record: 82-80, 36.1% odds to make the playoffs, 4% odds to win the division
What happened last year? After a confounding and disappointing 2023, the Padres bounced back in 2024. With a crew of star players, they won 93 games and made the Dodgers sweat out the division title in the final weeks of September. As the NL’s top wild card, San Diego easily bounced Atlanta and then had L.A. on the ropes in the NLDS before another disappointing October exit for the Friars. The winter brought a great deal of uncertainty, as an ownership dispute seemed to prevent the organization from doing much of anything in free agency.
Best-case scenario: The Padres finally put it all together, getting great contributions from all of their superstars while Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. earn MVP votes. Last year’s rookie sensation, Jackson Merrill, takes another step forward and solidifies his place as the best center fielder in baseball. Xander Bogaerts plays like the Bogaerts of old. And not only does San Diego find a rhythm on offense, but also its pitching staff helps support a strong lineup, making it one of the NL’s toughest teams and carrying the Padres to the NLCS.
Worst-case scenario: Machado continues to age, as injuries and lack of production lead to a down season. Tatis is unable to recapture the electric form that made him one of the faces of the league. But the actual worst case for the Padres is if the pitching is unable to keep the team in games for the duration of the season. After Yu Darvish, Michael King and Dylan Cease, a rotation full of question marks gets shelled, and the Padres are forced to sell at the deadline.
Make-or-break player: Tatis. There are few players in baseball who captivate the masses like Tatis when he’s on. Whether it’s monstrous homers, Gold Glove defense in right field or his athleticism around the diamond, the man is truly electric. If the Padres are to do anything significant in 2025, they’ll need their two-time All-Star to carry them. We haven’t seen Tatis return to the level he was playing at in 2022, before he was suspended for PEDs, but he has shown signs that player is still there. If he can return to top form, it could be a huge factor in sending the Padres on a deep postseason run.
Season prediction: The Padres will be one of the more interesting this season. On paper they still have plenty of high-end talent, but between the team’s ownership situation and stated desire to cut salary for payroll relief, there are a number of possible outcomes in San Diego. That said, until there are further changes to the roster, the Padres should once again be in the NL wild-card picture, with the opportunity to upset anyone they face in October.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Projected record: 86-76, 59.7% odds to make the playoffs, 9.2% odds to win the division
What happened last year? Coming off an NL pennant, the Diamondbacks were pretty ho-hum in 2024. They won 89 games and were in the wild-card mix until the final day of the season — or, rather, the day after, when they were eliminated after the Mets and Braves both clinched via their bizarre doubleheader. The D-backs surprised everyone with a quietly strong offseason headlined by the unexpected signing of ace Corbin Burnes.
Best-case scenario: The D-backs come out of the gate like a team possessed and show that their new roster has what it takes to compete in baseball’s toughest division. Former NL Rookie of the Year Corbin Carroll returns to his 2024 form and puts himself back in MVP discussions, forming one of the best tandems in the sport alongside 2024 NL MVP finalist Ketel Marte. But the biggest strength is Arizona’s rotation, which is in the conversation for best in MLB, as Burnes, Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez and Brandon Pfaadt pitch the D-backs not only back into the postseason but also all the way to the NLCS with another chance to shock baseball.
Worst-case scenario: The investment in Burnes doesn’t pay off, as the 2022 NL Cy Young Award winner regresses. The rest of Arizona’s rotation does the same, as what was thought to be the team’s strength fails to come to fruition. Carroll’s slow start in 2024 carries into 2025, and the lack of production seeps into the rest of the lineup, causing the offense to be stagnant as the D-backs find themselves on the outside of the postseason picture once again.
Make-or-break player: Marte. He was the D-backs’ best player last season, and he put himself in the conversation as one of the best players in the sport on the way to finishing top-three in MVP voting. He has taken his game to new heights over the past six seasons, and if he’s healthy, there’s no reason he can’t continue to be a force at the top of Arizona’s lineup. Marte is a top-10 player in the game who’ll have another opportunity this season to show the world just how good he is.
Season prediction: The D-backs could be one of the best teams in the National League this season. They added a former Cy Young winner to their rotation, and they made their team better in multiple areas with the addition of first baseman Josh Naylor. Who’s to say Arizona isn’t the third- or fourth-best team in the NL by the time we get to September? The NL wild-card race is guaranteed to be a fight this season, but Arizona has enough to get a say and secure a playoff spot before it’s all said and done.
San Francisco Giants
Projected record: 81-81, 28.4% odds to make the playoffs, 2.6% odds to win the division
What happened last year? After a winter of significant spending, it was another disappointing .500-ish season in San Francisco. New addition Jung-Ho Lee was injured for most of the season as the Giants were largely a non-factor in the playoff picture. After an 80-82 finish, they again were major players in free agency, adding shortstop Willy Adames and veteran Justin Verlander during Buster Posey’s first winter at the helm.
Best-case scenario: When it comes to the Giants, starting pitching is always going to be front and center. If things go well, it’ll mean ace Logan Webb continuing to be one of the best starters in baseball. Adames becomes the big bat San Francisco hoped for as the Giants’ offense finds the power it’s desperately needed. The Giants are in the middle of the wild-card race all season, and their pitching prowess means they constantly put other teams on upset alert.
Worst-case scenario: Buster Posey’s first year as president of baseball operations doesn’t prove fruitful, as the 42-year-old Verlander, Robbie Ray and former top prospect Kyle Harrison are unable to stay healthy, leaving Webb to once again try to carry the team’s rotation. Even worse is another season of stagnant offense, with the addition of Adames’ bat doing little to improve the lineup’s production.
Make-or-break player: Adames. The Giants have been in need of offense for a while, and after adding Korean outfielder Lee last offseason, they acquired the power-hitting shortstop to add some thump in the middle of the order. Adames’ importance as a right-handed run producer can’t be understated. The shortstop is coming off the best season of his career, with career highs in hits, homers, runs and RBI. The ominous stat that has hung over the Giants since the departure of Barry Bonds is that no player has eclipsed 30 homers in the Bay since MLB’s all-time leader in homers did it in 2004. While it’s a tall task for a right-handed hitter in San Francisco, Adames’ consistency is a welcome sight, and his ability to lead a clubhouse will also be a huge benefit.
Season prediction: The addition of Adames notwithstanding, it feels like the Giants’ goal this season is to have the players who were already on the roster improve. It’s not a bad strategy, with solid players such as Lee, Matt Chapman and 2024 All-Star Heliot Ramos entrenched on the roster. Yet it’s fair to wonder if they can be more than just a middling team in baseball’s toughest division. The Giants are going to show flashes, but it’s difficult to imagine a jump back into the postseason in 2025.
Colorado Rockies
Projected record: 63-99, 0.1% odds to make the playoffs, 0% odds to win the division
What happened last year? Another season of irrelevance. In a loaded division full of stars, the Rockies were totally forgettable — and out of the playoff picture virtually immediately. Then, as per usual, the Rockies spent almost no money in the winter.
Best-case scenario: First and foremost, Kris Bryant returns to being a power threat, hitting 30 home runs for the first time since 2019. And it’s not just Bryant who performs. The team’s young core of Ezequiel Tovar, Brenton Doyle and Nolan Jones all become the best versions of themselves as the Rockies make their opponents sweat for the first time in years.
Worst-case scenario: It can’t really get worse for the Rockies than it’s already been, right? Bryant continues to be a shell of his former self, yet again playing less than half the season. Colorado’s young core of players fails to develop, and some even begin to regress as the Rockies sink further into the depths of baseball’s cellar, becoming the worst team in baseball.
Make-or-break player: Bryant. The reality is the Rockies’ make-or-break player for the past three seasons has been Bryant. The former NL MVP hasn’t played more than 80 games in a season since he signed his seven-year, $182 million deal with Colorado in 2022. While the days of Bryant being a perennial All-Star might be in the rearview mirror, there’s nothing that says he can’t still be a real power threat in his 30s. The Rockies need that from him if they are to have any hope of staying afloat.
Season prediction: Honestly, the bar for the Rockies couldn’t be any lower than it already is. They’ve been among the bottom three teams in baseball for the past five years, and it’s hard to imagine they’re not close to that level again in 2025. But they have interesting talent and a solid crop of top-tier prospects who could be on the door of the big leagues. The goal in Colorado should be to play competitive baseball.