When star third baseman Alex Bregman agreed to a deal with the Cubs, he ended a weeks-long deadlock atop the free-agent hitter market. Since sluggers Kyle Schwarber and Pete Alonso agreed to deals with the Phillies and Orioles during the winter meetings in early December, the four remaining premier free-agent bats — Bregman, Kyle Tucker, Bo Bichette and Cody Bellinger — had lingered on the open market into the new year, waiting for interested suitors to step forward with sufficient offers. The Cubs surprised many in the industry by being the first team to pounce, landing Bregman with a five-year, $175 million deal with heavy deferrals. That sparked an intriguing response from Bregman’s former team, the Red Sox, with their reported five-year, $130 million deal with left-hander Ranger Suárez.
Bregman’s decision — and Boston’s pivot to more pitching — offered some clarity on the priorities of the big-market teams involved, in turn providing a narrower selection of potential landing spots for Tucker, Bichette and Bellinger. And with pitchers and catchers scheduled to arrive at their respective complexes in Arizona and Florida in four weeks, reports indicate that we are rapidly approaching a resolution for that trio of star hitters.
With that in mind, here’s the latest on each of their markets and the scenarios still in play for this high-stakes game of musical chairs.
Kyle Tucker
Unlike the ultra-hyped sweepstakes for Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto the past two winters — both of which wrapped up by mid-December — Tucker’s free agency as the top player available has plodded along without much buzz until very recently. The Blue Jays were the first team linked to Tucker when he reportedly visited their spring training complex in Dunedin, near Tucker’s hometown of Tampa, in early December. Evidently that was merely an initial step. But in the month-plus since, Toronto’s interest has sustained, and after the Jays signed third baseman Kazuma Okamoto earlier this month, it became clearer that Toronto was prioritizing pursuing Tucker over retaining homegrown star Bo Bichette.
As Toronto loomed, the baseball world wondered if and when any serious competition for Tucker would emerge. The deep-pocketed Mets and Dodgers were the obvious candidates for different reasons. The Dodgers’ outfield remains a rare weak spot on their star-studded roster, and the Mets haven’t meaningfully improved their roster after a ton of high-profile exits. Still, it was unclear the lengths either club was willing to go to land Tucker.
At first, reports highlighted a basic discrepancy: Toronto was willing to offer a long-term contract, while Los Angeles and New York preferred a shorter deal with a higher average annual value. But it was not until this week that we got a better idea of just how different these offers could be. While the specifics of the Dodgers’ offer remains unclear, several reports have indicated that the Mets have offered Tucker a short-team deal of at least three years with an annual salary averaging around $50 million, a staggering number that would rival Soto’s $51M AAV if completed. Meanwhile, ESPN’s Jeff Passan said Wednesday on Sportsnet that Toronto could be willing to offer Tucker a deal as long as 10 years at a far lower AAV with a much more substantial total amount. Given such a stark difference in the structure of the offers, what Tucker ultimately chooses will say a lot about his priorities.
Once he decides, a new round of intriguing questions will immediately surface. Just how high will the payroll climb for whichever team signs Tucker? Will there be additional moves to offload other salary? If he picks Toronto, will the Mets and/or Dodgers pivot to Bellinger? If he picks the Dodgers or Mets, will Toronto reengage with Bichette or stay focused on adding to the outfield and consider Bellinger?
The order of operations also matters here. If Tucker isn’t the first of this trio to sign, the urgency for his suitors to do whatever it takes to sign him could increase. Which brings us to …
Cody Bellinger
At the outset of the offseason, there were three top-end free agents whose incumbent teams expressed strong intentions to retain them: Schwarber, Bregman and Bellinger. Bellinger is the only one who remains unsigned, but as the other two situations indicate, stated goals of keeping stars in-house don’t always come to fruition in the wild world of free agency.
In the case of Bellinger and the Yankees, it still feels more likely than not that he returns, but the negotiations seem to be at something of a standstill. The biggest sticking point appears to be the length of the deal, as Bellinger and his agent, Scott Boras, are reportedly seeking a seven-year contract, while the Yankees’ most recent offer was five years with an AAV in excess of $30 million, bringing the total north of $150 million guaranteed. That would be right in line with, if not even a bit higher than most industry projections — MLB Trade Rumors and FanGraphs’ Ben Clemens both projected five years, $140M for Bellinger; ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel had six years, $165M; The Athletic’s Tim Britton had seven years, $182M — but Boras and Bellinger evidently aren’t satisfied yet.
It’s unclear what would motivate the Yankees to increase their offer if their competition for Bellinger remains murky at best. This is where Tucker’s decision could loom large if it comes first, as it’s possible Boras is waiting for a Tucker resolution to spark added interest in Bellinger from the teams that fall short with Tucker. That’s a reasonable course to take from a negotiation standpoint, but it’s also plausible that Bellinger is set on staying in the Bronx and the Yankees just need to stretch a bit further — perhaps compromise at six years — to seal the deal, regardless of what happens with Tucker.
Bo Bichette
And then there’s Bo. Bichette now occupies an interesting position atop the market post-Bregman, as the number of teams that both have the spending power to land a star free-agent such as Bichette and are in the market for an infielder is surprisingly small.
The Red Sox looked like natural candidates to pursue Bichette after Bregman bolted, but their agreement with Suárez indicated otherwise, and at this point, Boston appears more likely to add to its offense via trade than with a high-dollar hitter in free agency. And the Sox aren’t the only team that fits that description; other contending clubs such as the Mariners, Giants, Guardians and Royals seem more focused on exploring the trade market for upgrades in the infield, with Brendan Donovan and Nico Hoerner both bandied about as potentially on the move. The Yankees have reportedly checked in on Bichette, too, perhaps as a backup plan for Bellinger, but his fit in the Bronx would require some maneuvers that don’t seem likely at this stage.
With the incumbent Blue Jays focused on adding an outfielder — infielders Ernie Clement and Andrés Giménez are both under contract for three more years, whereas there’s long-term uncertainty in the outfield, with Daulton Varsho and George Springer both slated to hit free agency after this season — a reunion with Bichette does not look especially likely, barring a drastic, late change of plans. As such, Bichette’s longstanding sentiments about wanting to stay a Blue Jay don’t seem to be reciprocated by Toronto enough to make that a reality.
Fortunately for Bichette, an attractive alternative to start a new chapter has emerged late in the process: the Philadelphia Phillies. At first glance, Philadelphia is fairly set in the infield, with superstar anchors Trea Turner and Bryce Harper flanked by Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott at third and second base, respectively. But Bohm is entering the final year of his contract, and the Phillies have been exploring trading him for quite some time. Stott, meanwhile, has blossomed into a steady presence at second for Philadelphia, but he also has experience at third, which could allow Philadelphia to sign Bichette to handle second — an expected transition off his natural shortstop — move Stott to third and trade Bohm.
Add the recent hire of Don Mattingly, with whom Bichette grew close during Mattingly’s three-year stint as Toronto’s bench coach, and Philadelphia offers a level of familiarity and comfort that other suitors cannot. Bichette and the Phillies reportedly had a productive meeting earlier this week. So barring any late entrants to this pursuit — could the Dodgers emerge as suitors with a short-term, high-AAV offer, a la what they’re offering Tucker? — it might be just a matter of constructing an offer worthy of Bichette’s signature. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski usually succeeds in landing his top targets; we’ll see if Bichette becomes his latest superstar addition in a legendary front-office career chock-full of them.