The NFL season is over, so it’s time to turn our attention to the NBA. When betting the NFL, the hope with every pick is to bet early on Tuesdays, have a strong number by kickoff and bank on a sharp market to be efficient. The process and results matched. After sweeping three bets on the Super Bowl, the season ended 41-25, hitting 62% of my bets (with average odds of -115), and ending plus-14 units.
The plan for the NBA is mightily similar. I want to beat the closing line in an attempt to gain positive expected value.
Let’s break down NBA All-Star Weekend with a detailed approach to +EV betting that will be a weekly staple when the NBA returns from break.
Victor Wembanyama is back in the mix at All-Star Weekend. (AP Photo/Darron Cummings, File)
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Explaining theoretical hold, how to calculate it and why it matters
Theoretical hold in sports betting refers to the average rake rate or house cut the casino/sportsbook expects to make in a given market. We know books make their money on the house edge obtained by placing a vig on bets customers place. In the most basic sense, if a bettor is hitting 50% of his or her bets on the standard -110 odds, he or she is going to be a losing bettor because of the juice, which requires a 52.38% hit rate to break even.
To calculate the theoretical hold, we take all betting options in a market, convert the odds into implied probabilities represented in percentages, sum the total (which will always be north of 100%) and subtract 100%. The leftover percentage of the summed implied probabilities is the expected house cut. So, when applying this to a game spread or total, we typically see -110 on each bet side. If a -110 correlates to a 52.38% implied probability, then the sum total of two -110 bet options is 52.38 + 52.38 = 104.76%. Subtract 100%, and the book expects to make 4.76% in these standard two-way markets.
Quick aside: the reason why it is theoretical is because sportsbooks’ actual handle on a game is rarely 50/50 on both sides, so in a given market, it depends on which side wins and which betting side took the action. But the house edge of 4.76% still exists.
Applying that to NBA All-Star markets
When looking at the All-Star Weekend betting markets — for markets like 3-Point Contest winner, Slam Dunk Contest winner and All-Star Game MVP — there is a large spike in this theoretical hold. If we convert the current odds on all eight possible 3-Point contenders into implied probabilities, sum the total and subtract 100%, we find a theoretical hold in this particular market to be 13.6%. That means the house cut is expected to be nearly three times that in a standard game market.
When the house cut rises, the bettor’s value decreases. Edges need to be bigger in higher hold markets to justify a bet being placed and to obtain positive expected value. In All-Star weekend, it is hard to know who is going to give maximum effort, let alone identify a true edge by studying player vertical for the Slam Dunk contest, or shot-form consistency metrics and release angles for the 3pt Contest. Understanding what theoretical hold is, how to calculate it and how to evaluate the number generated allows you, as a bettor, to evaluate that specific market and if it is worth exploring for edges.
Players I like
Despite this not being a market I chose to bet into, as a high-level NBA bettor and a massive NBA fan, I am happy to offer a few suggestions on players I like. I understand people will negate the need for a true edge on a small and entertaining bet. So here are the players I would most consider:
Devin Booker, 3-Point Contest winner (+550): Booker is having a down year from an efficiency standpoint, but he is a perfect candidate to target. This is Booker’s third time competing, and he already notched a win. Booker has a textbook release that is fit for this contest.
Looking at other candidates: Norman Powell was an instant cross off for me because the release point on his shot is at the top of his vertical, which is difficult to replicate on 30 shots in just 60 seconds. Jamal Murray and Kon Knueppel are making their debuts; no thanks grabbing a first-time competitor with the nerves that are sure to hit. Bobby Portis has the longest odds and offers the biggest payout, but, to put it nicely, I am not sure why he is even in this contest.
Carter Bryant, Slam Dunk Contest winner (+190): No, he is not related to Vince Carter or Kobe Bryant, but hopefully, he pays homage to those former winners. Carter Bryant is nearly a lab-built dunk participant. He has a 40-inch vertical, he is 6-foot-6 with just under a 7-foot wingspan. The measurables are ideal for this contest — Carter Bryant combines a mix of explosiveness and size to finish some awesome dunks. Look him up on YouTube, and you’ll see compilation videos of his dunks with titles like “He’s a Freak.”
Jaxson Hayes was my first easy elimination from this list. His size makes him too big to dunk with finesse. Hayes finished a midgame breakaway dunk through his legs in live action this season — go look it up. It sounds great in theory, but aesthetically, it is underwhelming for a contest.
All-Star Game MVP Victor Wembanyama (+425): Wemby is the talk of the town heading into his first All-Star Game. Last year, he tried to use game theory optimization alongside teammate Chris Paul in the Skills Competition by not even attempting shots and throwing three balls off the racks to qualify as shots and not waste time. While he was disqualified for doing so, Wembanyama is looking for edges and is outspoken that he is going to try.
The big advantage Wembanyama has is that he is a starter who promises effort and has a build that is guaranteed for an incredibly efficient game. Sure, he will probably shoot five-plus 3-point attempts, but those might be his only non-dunks. He will gobble up rebounds and maybe add some defensive stats and assists. Giannis was always my All-Star MVP favorite, and he took one home a few years ago, going 16-of-16 on easy dunks.
The best way to bet All-Star Weekend
Now that you have my picks, I will let you in on the best way to bet on the events.
There are 16 participants in Saturday’s contests, and you can add four possible candidates for All-Star Game MVP. That’s 20 players who can be put into an All-Star Weekend draft. Find a group of four and draft the participants until all the names are taken. You will have a collection of five contestants each, and if you have the winner in any specific market, you win, let’s say, $20 from each of your friends.
If you have Devin Booker, and he wins the 3-point contest, your three friends give you $20 each for a total of $60. Do this for each contest and winner. There are game-theory approaches on taking multiple dunkers in a shorter field or aiming for a diversified set of candidates. By doing this, you have a stake in the action and eliminate house edge and the market holds that are three times worse than game-to-game markets.
If the goal is skin in the game but not a +EV bet, then the All-Star draft accomplishes that.
HOUSTON — New Clippers guard Darius Garland stood a few feet away from the bench in street clothes attempting to blend in with the group, while coaches urged the players to keep pace with a Rockets team that was struggling out of the gates. A few minutes later, Garland shuffled over behind the stanchion, watching his team play while being interviewed by a sideline reporter. On both occasions, both during the first-quarter timeout and after, Garland’s focus was on everything happening in front of him.
The 26-year-old isn’t an imposing figure by any means; he is soft-spoken and mild-mannered by nature. But his presence could be felt. Garland represents a number of things for the new-look Clippers — the departures of James Harden and Ivica Zubac, the dismantling of one of the NBA’s hottest teams and a paradigm shift for the franchise.
“It’s not easy,” veteran Nic Batum told Yahoo Sports after the team’s 102-95 loss to the Rockets on Tuesday. “Especially when you trade away big pieces. But the thing we got back is pretty huge as well. You still gotta do your job, but it’s going to be an adjustment for sure.”
Tuesday evening’s setting painted a quiet picture against the backdrop of a rather noisy trade deadline and season overall. The coming weeks and months — with the Clippers still under league investigation for possible cap circumvention related to Kawhi Leonard — could prove pivotal for the future course of the franchise. And over the next few days, the entire basketball world will convene at Intuit Dome for All-Star Weekend, once again thrusting this franchise into the national spotlight.
But at least for now, in the eye of the storm, basketball is their focus.
“We love to hoop,” Leonard said with a rare smile after a 19-point fourth quarter in a 105-102 win over the Rockets on Wednesday on the second night of a back-to-back in Houston. “Guys kept their heads in the game and they wanted to compete and that’s what we did. … Every win is important for us whoever we’re playing, because of the seed we’re in right now. We’ve got to move up in the rankings, try to get out of the play-in. That’s our season for us.”
Leonard’s heroics (he finished the game with 27 points, 12 rebounds, 4 assists and 4 steals) pushed the Clippers to an impressive 3-1 record since the Feb. 5 trade deadline — a period that was supposed to mark a pivot away from previous outside expectations. Back-to-backs against the same opponent on the road are a rarity in the NBA schedule, but they allow for a team to reinforce their immediate goals. For Lue, a championship-winning coach with over 15 years of experience, roster turnover isn’t a foreign concept, and his objectives won’t change because of who is or isn’t taking the floor.
“Just gotta get a feel for what the new guys do,” Lue said. “How they play, try to let them be themselves in the confines of what we do offensively and defensively. … Our expectations are still to win and win at a high level. Come out and compete every single night and play hard. No matter who’s on the floor.”
In terms of the new-look personnel — inserting Brook Lopez and Derrick Jones Jr. (and Kris Dunn, until Garland returns) — Los Angeles’ identity is being carved out on the defensive end. The Clippers sit fourth in defensive efficiency since the deadline, allowing just 107.3 points per 100 possessions. Extremely small sample size, yes, but there’s no reason to suggest a major dropoff at that end of the floor as the Dunn-Jones-Leonard-John Collins-Lopez group adds more games under its belt. It’s everything you could ask for in a lockdown lineup; Dunn as a physical point of attack defender; Jones and Collins as athletic passing lane disruptors; Lopez as the backline and Leonard as the end-all, be-all versatile irritant. They’re causing havoc at all levels, generating turnovers on nearly 20% of opponent possessions. The Clippers forced 39 Rockets turnovers in 48 hours. They’re pesky, annoying and in your face.
“We’re able to blitz and cause chaos,” Lue said. “Shoot the gap for steals, turn them over and get out in transition. Being physical and into bodies, protecting the paint and understanding the game plan. When we turn teams over, we’re a different team.”
There’s a lot to be desired offensively, though. Nothing is ever guaranteed from one season to another in this league, but in the blink of an eye, the Clippers went from an emerging offensive juggernaut to this, with all due respect. A healthy Garland should help with more juice in pick-and-rolls and optimal shot creation for teammates. Bennedict Mathurin, who was part of the trade that sent Zubac to Indiana, also gives the Clippers another shot-creator, in addition to being a solid point-of-attack defender.
But the lone constant, Kawhi, is still pretty damn good. Leonard is having a renaissance campaign, the fifth-most impactful player per 100 possessions, according to the LEBRON metric, behind Nikola Jokić, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Victor Wembanyama and Cade Cunningham — MVP candidates. Leonard is quietly posting an absurd 28/6/4 statline on the cusp of a 50-40-90 year. According to Stathead, Leonard is the only player in the NBA with those averages on that efficiency — not to mention a .619 true shooting percentage. There were reports circulating that teams made calls about his availability after the departures of Harden and Zubac but were quickly shut down. Even at 34, he’s shown to be a bona fide go-to scorer, lockdown defender and closer.
Who knows what the Clippers’ immediate future looks like with a Leonard-Garland pairing. The decision to move on from Harden isn’t without risk, even if Los Angeles obtained a younger player who hasn’t reached his prime yet. Will this move prove to be a domino effect in attracting more talent? Again, we’re still talking about the team that sent a future Hall of Famer home in the middle of a road trip and hasn’t received a verdict on alleged financial wrongdoings.
There’s a lot going on in Clipperland right now, which makes the upcoming All-Star Weekend that much more interesting.
Chicago White Sox general manager Chris Getz issued a mea culpa Thursday after wrongly calling one of his more important players a switch-hitter for a month.
Acuña is a right-handed hitter. He was right-handed when the Texas Rangers signed him out of Venezuela in 2018, and he has never dabbled in switch-hitting as far as we can tell. He was still right-handed when the White Sox acquired him for one of their top trade chips.
Still, for some reason, Getz repeatedly referred to Acuña as a switch-hitter in public appearances, as Roundtable’s Sam Phalen compiled:
Great job by many of you flagging this.
Here are FOUR different times this offseason where #WhiteSox GM Chris Getz has referred to Luisangel Acuña as a switch hitter.
That highlight reel made the social media rounds Wednesday, leading to Getz admitting he was wrong, with some tongue-in-cheek comments via MLB.com:
“So I probably have been getting carried away describing his versatility,” Getz joked. “He can play every position on the field. Why does it have to stop there? I called Luisangel and told him that even though he’s just right-handed, we still love him.”
On the one hand, this is silly. Everyone’s made a mistake like that, such as thinking an athlete plays a position he doesn’t. It’s hard to imagine the White Sox declining to pull the trigger on the Robert trade because Acuña is right-handed.
On the other hand, it would be polite to call this a bad look for Getz. An MLB general manager is supposed to have deep knowledge of not just every player on their team but also every player in the minor-league organization. If a no-name outfielder suddenly hits a homer over the batter’s eye in Low-A or a teenage pitcher reaches 100 mph in the Dominican complex, the GM is supposed to know about it.
That applies to players outside the organization, too. A move such as the Robert trade should be coming after hours of legwork evaluating every interested team’s minor-league system for under-appreciated talents. Getz acquiring Acuña is a bet that a guy who was Baseball America’s No. 66 prospect in 2024 can still be an impact talent, despite slashing .248/.299/.341 in 233 MLB plate appearances, and you don’t make those calls unless your staff has pored through reams of data and scouting reports.
So if a GM has something as basic as a player’s handedness wrong, that’s worth remembering.
Getz has worked for the White Sox since 2016 and was promoted to general manager in 2023. His tenure has so far consisted of overseeing a rebuilding system while fielding one of the worst teams in MLB. Despite some interesting moves such as the signing of Munetaka Murakami, Vegas isn’t expecting a much better team this year, with BetMGM pegging the Sox’s over/under at 66.5, third-worst in MLB.
The midseason exhibition will be played in Inglewood, California, at the Los Angeles Clippers’ Intuit Dome on Sunday.
The NBA first moved New York Knicks center Karl-Anthony Towns to Team World last week, opening a 16th and final spot in the Team USA pool for this year’s All-Star Game.
Additionally, after Antetokounmpo was ruled out Thursday, the NBA moved Miami Heat wing Norman Powell — who has ties to Jamaica — to Team World.
Here’s the roster breakdown:
USA Stars
Head coach: J.B. Bickerstaff (Detroit Pistons)
Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors
Devin Booker, Phoenix Suns
Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons
Jalen Duren, Detroit Pistons
Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves
Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder
Jalen Johnson, Atlanta Hawks
Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia 76ers
USA Stripes
Head coach: Mitch Johnson (San Antonio Spurs)
Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics
Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks
Brandon Ingram, Toronto Raptors
Kevin Durant, Houston Rockets
LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers
Kawhi Leonard, Los Angeles Clippers
Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers
De’Aaron Fox, San Antonio Spurs
Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors*
World
Head coach: Darko Rajaković (Toronto Raptors)
Deni Avdija, Portland Trail Blazers
Luka Dončić, Los Angeles Lakers
Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets
Jamal Murray, Denver Nuggets
Pascal Siakam, Indiana Pacers
Alperen Şengün, Houston Rockets
Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks
Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
Norman Powell, Miami Heat
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks*
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder*
“*” denotes unable to play because of injury
How this year’s All-Stars were selected
Fans were responsible for 50% of the vote that picked each conference’s five starters. NBA players (25%) and a media panel (25%) accounted for the other slices of the vote.
NBA head coaches selected 14 reserves, namely James, who’s on an All-Star team for the 22nd consecutive season.
There were no positional requirements for this year’s All-Star lineups. That’s a first for the exhibition, which will soon be played in its 75th iteration.
Why are there 9 participating players on Team World?
Towns, who is Dominican through his late mother, was the first player shifted over to Team World. As a result, there were only 15 players in the Team USA pool. A minimum of 16 was required, hence the addition of Leonard.
When the format was rolled out, it was announced that Silver would have the ability to select additional All-Stars so that each group hit its number.
So that’s how Team World ended up with nine players initially, whereas USA Stars and USA Stripes both started with eight players. The additions of Şengün and Powell gave Team World 11 players, but only nine of them will be participating. Likewise, while USA Stripes will technically have nine All-Stars, only eight of them will play, including Ingram and Fox.
How this year’s All-Star Game will be played
In terms of the game itself, there will still technically be four 12-minute quarters — although each will be its own game. Each of the three teams will play twice during round-robin action. The fourth “quarter” will pit the two teams with the best records to decide a champion.
Point differential will be the post-round-robin tiebreaker if all three teams have 1-1 records.
A look at this year’s All-Star Game uniforms, court
Alongside the NBA All-Star 2026 brand identity, the court design draws inspiration from the Los Angeles Clippers and the architectural structure of the Intuit dome.
The Clippers are hosting this year’s All-Star Game, so it’s fitting the hardwood honors their colorway, as well as the architectural design of the Intuit Dome, which opened ahead of the 2024-25 season and will be used during the 2028 L.A. Olympics.
The All-Star Game jerseys sport an L.A.-inspired script, and there are seven stars orbiting the wordmarks, representing the seven previous All-Star games the city has hosted.
Former lottery pick and All-Rookie team selection Jeremy Sochan has decided to sign with the New York Knicks, ESPN’s Shams Charania reported.
Sochan will join the Knicks once he clears waivers. He reached a buyout agreement with the San Antonio Spurs on Wednesday.
Sochan had interest from 10 teams before deciding on the Knicks, who are contenders in the Eastern Conference, ESPN reported. New York has enough room to sign Sochan to veteran’s minimum contract, prorated for the remainder of the season, and stay below the second apron.
The Spurs selected Sochan with the No. 9 pick out of Baylor in the 2022 NBA Draft. He immediately secured a starting position for San Antonio and earned second-team All-Rookie honors after averaging 11 points, 5.3 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game.
Sochan started 73 games for the Spurs in his second season with similar production. He was a part-time starter in his third season with 23 starts in 54 games, but fell out of the rotation this season on an improved Spurs roster with more competition for playing time.
Jeremy Sochan is reportedly no longer a San Antonio Spur.
Steph Chambers via Getty Images
Sochan averaged 4.1 points while playing 12.8 minutes per game in 28 of San Antonio’s 53 games prior to the news of his release. He played in 11 of San Antonio’s previous 30 games in limited action.
Sochan was on the trade block prior to last week’s NBA trade deadline. But the Spurs didn’t find a trade partner and have opted to release Sochan while providing him an opportunity to find a larger role with another team.
After missing the playoffs for seven consecutive seasons, the Spurs are championship contenders this year with Victor Wembanyama leading the team. San Antonio enters its last game before the All-Star break Wednesday night against the Golden State Warriors at 37-16, good for second place in the Western Conference, 3.5 games behind the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Going into the 2026 MLB season, the contract of Philadelphia Phillies slugger Nick Castellanos was not what you would describe as a prime asset. As expected, the team announced Thursday that Castellanos had been released.
With pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training this week, the outfielder was still technically part of the Phillies organization. But according to The Athletic’s Matt Gelb, there was no locker for Castellanos at the Phillies’ spring training complex in Clearwater, Florida, and the club reportedly told him not to report to the complex this week.
At 33 years old, he’s hardly expected to be better this season, so the Phillies are moving on. A trade would’ve almost certainly seen them eating the vast majority of Castellanos’ 2026 money because this is an area where they have zero leverage, barring multiple teams viewing him as an unlikely bounce-back candidate.
Meanwhile, the Phillies seem set to roll out an outfield of García in right, Brandon Marsh in left and rookie Justin Crawford in center for 2026.
No division spent more money on free-agent contracts this winter than the AL East, which, as a quintet, committed more than $900 million. That’s an impressive figure, considering Tampa Bay’s frugality and Boston’s bevy of trade acquisitions. It’s the rich getting richer, as this division has represented the American League in the World Series the past two years.
But which teams spent well, and which teams spent weirdly? And what exactly were the Rays up to, finagling their way into all those three-way deals? Let’s run through the richest division in baseball and grade their offseasons.
The club’s complete disinterest in retaining the franchise icon, whose Game 7 homer was two outs away from immortality, was fascinating. Perhaps the singular focus on Tucker played a factor. Perhaps both parties were ready to move on. Either way, the Jays will enter 2026 with a worse lineup and an improved infield defense, with Okamoto at third, Ernie Clement at second and Andrés Giménez at short.
Had they landed Tucker, this would be an easy A, but Toronto failed to land a top-tier offensive partner for Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Can the Yankees and Blue Jays repeat as the American League’s top two teams? Can the Red Sox and Orioles bounce back into the mix?
Grant Thomas/Yahoo Sports
New York Yankees
Significant outgoing free agents: RP Devin Williams, RP Luke Weaver, OF Austin Slater
Major moves:
Re-signed OF Cody Bellinger on a 5-year deal
Retained OF Trent Grisham via qualifying offer
Acquired SP Ryan Weathers from the Marlins for four prospects
Re-signed INF Amed Rosario on a 1-year deal
Re-signed 1B Paul Goldschmidt on a 1-year deal
Re-signed RP Paul Blackburn on a 1-year deal
Re-signed SP/RP Ryan Yarbrough on a 1-year deal
Offseason grade: B
The epitome of running it back, New York’s offseason was the transactional equivalent of reheating leftovers. That’s not an egregious strategy, considering how good the 2025 Yankees were, but the sheer scale of the continuity here is striking. In all, the Yankees retained six (!!) free agents from last year’s club and made just one significant external addition.
Keeping Bellinger in pinstripes was downright massive. He’s a perfect fit for the current roster, with his stellar outfield defense a real asset in Yankee Stadium’s spacious left field. Bellinger’s bat isn’t what it once was, but he finished second in WAR among Yankees last year, behind only Aaron Judge, for a reason. He’s a valuable player, one who helps give the 2026 Yankees one of the best lineups in baseball.
Beyond that, it was a generally underwhelming winter in the Bronx. GM Brian Cashman is clearly comfortable banking on another strong year from his offense to go with a returning-from-injury Gerrit Cole and a full season of young flamethrower Cam Schlittler. But it’s hard to give a team with only one new face anything higher than a B. Besides, this bullpen still feels … under-addressed, with Williams and Weaver leaving via free agency.
Boston Red Sox
Significant outgoing free agents: 3B Alex Bregman, SP Lucas Giolito, RP Steven Matz, RP Justin Wilson, OF Rob Refsnyder, SP Dustin May, RP Liam Hendriks
Major moves:
Signed SP Ranger Suárez to a 5-year deal
Acquired SP Sonny Gray from the Cardinals for SP Richard Fitts and a pitching prospect
Acquired 1B Willson Contreras from the Cardinals for SP Hunter Dobbins and two pitching prospects
Acquired INF Caleb Durbin, INF Andruw Monasterio, INF Anthony Seigler and a 2026 Competitive Balance Round B pick from the Brewers for SP Kyle Harrison, INF David Hamilton and SP Shane Drohan
Acquired SP Johan Oviedo, a pitching prospect and a catching prospect from the Pirates for OF Jhostynxon Garcia and a pitching prospect
Traded RP Jordan Hicks and a pitching prospect to the White Sox for a pitching prospect and salary relief
Signed INF Isiah Kiner-Falefa to a 1-year deal
Nontendered 1B Nathaniel Lowe
Offseason grade: B
The rotation is better, the lineup is worse, and we are tired. Boston’s winter was exhausting to follow. I can only imagine how chief baseball officer Craig Breslow feels.
Opting to let Alex Bregman walk after spending all of 2025 lauding his leadership qualities and offensive reliability was a questionable choice. The immediate pivot to Ranger Suárez was odd but should push this rotation from good to excellent. The same is true for the additions of Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo.
But the Red Sox didn’t exit October prematurely last season because they couldn’t prevent runs. No, they fell to the Yankees in the wild-card round because the offense lacked a difference-maker. Roman Anthony, who was hurt for the playoffs, might end up blossoming into that character, but that’s quite a lot to put on the shoulders of a 21-year-old. Willson Contreras is a proven commodity, but he’s closer to good than great. This corner outfield kitchen still has too many cooks between Anthony, Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu. Acquiring Caleb Durbin was a cheeky way to upgrade the infield, but he’s unlikely to compete for MVP votes.
This winter also served to put a bow on last year’s Rafael Devers blockbuster, as two more pieces from that move, Jordan Hicks and Kyle Harrison, were traded away. Jose Bello, a 20-year-old with seven appearances in Low-A, is the only player left in Boston’s organization who was acquired in the Devers deal. It’s yet another reminder that the decision to trade the star was effectively a salary dump and little more. Some of the money saved will go into the pockets of Contreras, Gray, Suárez and others, but it’s difficult to look at this roster and not wonder how much better it would be with Devers in it.
Tampa Bay Rays
Significant outgoing free agents: SP Adrian Houser
Major moves:
Signed OF Cedric Mullins to a 1-year deal
Signed SP Nick Martinez to a 1-year deal
Signed RP Steven Matz to a 2-year deal
Signed OF Jake Fraley to a 1-year deal
Acquired five prospects from the Orioles for SP Shane Baz
Acquired UTL Gavin Lux in from the Cincinnati Reds as part of a three-team trade in which they sent Josh Lowe to the Angels
Acquired 3B Ben Williamson from the Mariners as part of a three-team trade in which they sent a prospect and a draft pick to the Cardinals
Acquired OF Jacob Melton and a pitching prospect from the Astros as part of a three-team trade in which they sent 2B Brandon Lowe, OF Jake Mangum and RP Mason Montgomery to the Pirates
Acquired RP Steven Wilson from the White Sox for OF Everson Pereira and a prospect
Offseason grade: B-
Tampa Bay’s carousel to nowhere continues. This franchise, renowned for both its penny-pinching ways and its ability to uncover hidden value, appears to be taking a small step back entering 2026. Thankfully, the Rays went about it in a fun way, inserting themselves into three different three-way deals.
Quite a bit of talent left town among Baz, Montgomery and both Lowes, with mostly prospects arriving in return. Mullins, Martinez and Matz are all worthwhile additions — a sign that even though the Rays are doubtful to contend, the door is still open just in case.
In the main, this franchise is in something of a holding pattern until its stadium situation is resolved. That has been the case for some time now, though the new ownership group should help push the process forward. Until then, it’ll be more nibbling at the margins and hoping the farm system produces another star to pair with Junior Caminero.
Baltimore Orioles
Significant outgoing free agents: SP Tomoyuki Sugano, C Gary Sánchez
Major moves:
Signed 1B Pete Alonso to a 5-year deal
Acquired SP Shane Baz from the Rays for four prospects and a Competitive Balance Round A draft pick
Acquired OF Taylor Ward from the Angels for SP Grayson Rodriguez
Signed RP Ryan Helsley to a 2-year deal
Re-signed SP Zach Eflin on a 1-year deal
Acquired INF/OF Blaze Alexander from the Diamondbacks for RP Kade Strowd and two prospects
Signed OF Leody Taveras to a 1-year deal
Signed SP Chris Bassitt to a 1-year deal
Offseason grade: A-
After years of frugality, the Orioles finally broke out the checkbook for a top-tier free agent, inking Alonso to a paradigm-shifting, five-year deal. He’ll provide the type of dependable offensive production Baltimore desperately lacked throughout its immensely disappointing 2025. More importantly, his signing was a signal of a new day in Charm City; new owner David Rubenstein is willing to spend at levels the previous leadership group was not.
The two biggest trades of Baltimore’s winter were also significant departures in strategy for president of baseball operations Mike Elias, who has helmed the club since the 2018-19 offseason. Dealing Rodriguez and his four years of control for an impending free agent in Ward was an uncharacteristically aggressive maneuver for the typically calculating Elias. The same is true of the Baz trade, in which Baltimore parted with a cornucopia of prospects to land a potential frontline arm.
This was not a perfect offseason for the O’s — the bullpen could have used another boost, the rotation didn’t get a true ace — but it was a massive step forward. There’s an argument that no team in baseball improved as much as the one in Baltimore.
The National League West is a division of extremes. On one end, we have the back-to-back champion Dodgers, with their payroll that rivals some divisions’ combined spending. On the other hand, we have the Rockies, MLB’s worst team in 2025 and an organization infamous for being way behind the rest of the league. Somewhere in between are the Padres, Giants and Diamondbacks, all dealing with spending constraints while trying to contend in a competitive National League.
How did these five teams do in terms of improving their rosters this winter? Let’s grade ‘em.
Significant outgoing free agents: SP Clayton Kershaw (retired), SP Andrew Heaney (retired), LF Michael Conforto, RP Michael Kopech, RP Kirby Yates
Major moves:
Signed OF Kyle Tucker to a 4-year deal
Signed RP Edwin Diaz to a 3-year deal
Re-signed 2B Miguel Rojas to a 1-year deal
Re-signed RP Evan Phillips to a 1-year deal
Extended 3B Max Muncy on a 2-year deal
Re-signed INF Enrique Hernandez to a 1-year deal
Offseason grade: A+
After the Dodgers became the first team in a quarter-century to win back-to-back World Series titles, the baseball world waited to see what Los Angeles had in store this offseason. Like any team, the Dodgers came into the winter with some roster holes. But with an already loaded lineup, stacked rotation and overwhelming payroll, the idea of more significant additions seemed far-fetched. No matter. Early in the winter, the Dodgers shocked the industry by landing arguably the best closer in baseball, Edwin Díaz, on a three-year, $69 million deal. Díaz gives L.A. something it hasn’t had even in its recent run of dominance: a shutdown closer.
The Dodgers have a superstar-studded roster and have made themselves as close to infallible as any team in recent history. They go into 2026 as the overwhelming favorites to win another title.
Will the Dodgers three-peat in 2026? Will the Rockies rebound from being the worst team in the sport?
Grant Thomas/Yahoo Sports
San Diego Padres
Significant outgoing free agents: RP Robert Suarez, 1B Luis Arraez, 1B Ryan O’Hearn, SP Nestor Cortes, SP Dylan Cease
Major moves:
Re-signed SP Michael King on a 3-year deal
Signed LF Miguel Andujar on a 1-year deal
Offseason grade: C
The Padres, like the Dodgers, have an extremely top-heavy roster when it comes to their talent. And with the combination of Manny Machado, Fernando Tatís Jr. and Jackson Merrill, San Diego has the foundational pieces in the lineup. That’s something many teams around baseball would covet.
Losing Dylan Cease to the Toronto Blue Jays was huge, as it increases San Diego’s need for starting pitching — which they didn’t address prior to the start of spring training. But the Padres were able to re-sign Michael King, who when healthy is one of the better pitchers in the National League. And they were able to add outfielder Miguel Andujar, giving them another solid bat behind Tatis, Machado and Merrill.
It has been an interesting offseason in the Bay, as the Giants have tried to find their way out of the doldrums of mediocrity (321-327 the past four seasons). Given that this is one of the teams in baseball with the resources to make a huge splash, there was reason to believe president of baseball operations Buster Posey would make the most of this offseason. But that’s not exactly what happened.
The two biggest moves of the Giants’ offseason have come in the past few weeks. The team brought in Harrison Bader to play center fielder, allowing Jung-Hoo Lee to shift to right. The Giants then signed Luis Arraez to a one-year deal to play second base, giving them a table-setter atop the lineup. They also signed right-handers Tyler Mahle and Adrian Houser, who should provide quality innings and rotation depth.
In totality, none of these are bad moves, and all are likely to help the Giants be a better team in 2026 than they were in 2025. But in a division with as much high-end talent as the Dodgers and Padres have, you have to wonder if it’ll be enough.
But with so much energy focused on Marte, the D-backs hardly made any significant improvements to the rest of their roster. The biggest splash was probably their trade to acquire eight-time All-Star third baseman Nolan Arenado, though given Arenado’s decline the past few seasons, it was largely a salary dump for the Cardinals. The D-backs’ other two major moves this winter were bringing back right-hander Merrill Kelly after trading him at last summer’s deadline and signing 39-year-old DH/1B Carlos Santana.
Significant outgoing free agents: 2B Thairo Estrada, SS Orlando Arcia, SP German Marquez
Major moves:
Signed UTL Willi Castro to a 2-year deal
Signed SP José Quintana to a 1-year deal
Signed SP Michael Lorenzen to a 1-year deal
Signed SP Tomoyuki Sugano to a 1-year deal
Acquired 2B Edouard Julien and RP Pierson Ohl from the Twins in exchange for SP Jace Kaminska and cash
Offseason grade: D
An “incomplete” might be a better grade to give the Rockies, considering they didn’t do much to improve their major-league roster or farm system. They did sign utility man Willi Castro to a one-year deal and just this week brought in Tomoyuki Sugano and José Quintana to be innings-eaters, but that’s about it. Not exactly needle-moving acquisitions, but … it’s something, right?
Perhaps the Rockies‘ biggest move of the offseason was bringing in longtime baseball (and football) executive Paul DePodesta to be the team‘s new president of baseball operations. That marks the organization’s first major front-office shakeup since the team’s inception in 1993, as Colorado finally brought in someone from outside the organization. That in and of itself is a huge win for the Rockies, but only time will tell if it works.
There were 24 relief pitchers who saw an increase by five or more save opportunities while converting five or more saves in 2025 compared to 2024. When we filter down to which relievers had 15 or more saves in 2025 than in 2024, the list shrinks to eight players. Relievers that met those thresholds include Andrés Muñoz, Aroldis Chapman, Cade Smith, Carlos Estévez, Daniel Palencia, Emilio Pagán, Jeff Hoffman and Will Vest. We have a mixture of relievers with closer experience seeing a higher workload and pitchers who consistently earned save chances with success in 2025.
The visual below shows the relievers who met the previous threshold of five or more save opportunities and five or more saves in 2025 than in 2024:
RPs with 5+ save opps. (Photo by Corbin Young)
On the flip side, the list of relievers who saw their save opportunities and conversions drop by five or more includes Camilo Doval, Emmanuel Clase, José Alvarado, Josh Hader, Kyle Finnegan, Mason Miller and Ryan Helsley. Alvarado was the only reliever with single-digit saves. Doval was leading the Giants in saves (15), though Ryan Walker ate into his save chances, with 10 in the first half of the season before Doval was traded to the Yankees.
RPs with -5 save opps. (Photo by Corbin Young)
Meanwhile, Clase missed the final two months after being investigated for alleged gambling charges, so Cade Smith took on a heftier load. Similar to Doval, Helsley was traded to another team (Mets), and he didn’t convert a save in the second half out of four chances. Helsley signed with the Orioles and should slide into the primary closer for the new team (more on him below). Similarly, Finnegan was traded from the Nationals to the Tigers. Finnegan logged four saves out of five chances in the second half of the season with the Tigers.
This data reminds us that the closer market can have consistent players to target while understanding there can be volatility with trades, injuries and player struggles. We have several potential reliever targets, fades and sleepers to consider during draft season.
Ryan Helsley signed with the Orioles, filling a void with Félix Bautista undergoing shoulder surgery in August 2025. After a career season of 49 saves in 2024, the Cardinals traded Helsley to the Mets, leading to a significant role change. The 2025 ratios were awful for Helsley, though his 4.03 xERA and 15% swinging-strike suggested the skills still existed, with poor luck. Regression was expected for Helsley, though, after a 2.04 ERA, 3.52 xERA and an 18% swinging-strike rate in 2024.
Ryan Helsley’s 10-game rolling average. (Photo by Corbin Young/Fangraphs)
Helsley’s slider was nasty, eliciting a 23.1% swinging-strike rate, as a pitch he throws often to right-handed hitters (52.7%) and lefties (41.8%). He throws a high-velocity, gyro-like slider that makes hitters chase it outside the zone, with a career 40.3% chase rate. We want at least one dominant pitch for a closer, which Helsley possesses.
Meanwhile, Helsley’s four-seamer has been crushed against right-handed hitters (.526 wOBA, .455 xwOBA) and left-handed hitters (.471 wOBA, .375 xwOBA). That’s concerning because Helsley’s four-seam generates above-average induced vertical break while paired with above-average extension that comes from a high arm slot (62 degrees). He might be trying to pound the heater in the zone, expecting to find success, though he may benefit from lowering the zone rates. For context, Helsley threw the four-seamer in the zone 60 to 61% of the time over the past two seasons.
If Helsley makes a small tweak to the four-seam locations, we will have more confidence in his dominance. Regardless, Helsley should be the leading closer option for the Orioles after they relied on Keegan Akin (8 saves), Dietrich Enns (2 saves), and Corbin Martin (2) with Bautista sidelined.
Ryan Walker, Giants (Yahoo ADP 192.3)
Once Doval was traded, Ryan Walker had seven saves with Spencer Bivens (3) and Tristan Beck (2) being the other relievers with save conversions in the second half of the season. Walker comes at hitters from a low arm and cross-body approach, which likely involves volatility in his command. Interestingly, Walker’s swinging-strike rate fell to 9% in 2025 after being around 12-13% in the previous two seasons. That’s slightly concerning to have a reliever earning save chances with below-average stuff from a whiff standpoint.
Ryan Walker slider heatmap. (Photo by Corbin Young/MLB.com)
Walker’s slider typically had been filthy, inducing an 18% swinging-strike rate throughout his career. Unfortunately, Walker’s slider swinging-strike rate fell to 12.8% in 2025. The slider’s pitch movement profiles hadn’t changed much, with 14-15 inches of glove-side sweep. There’s a good chance that the slider’s whiffs and results regressed based on the pitch locations.
Ryan Walker slider xwOBA. (Photo by Corbin Young/MLB.com)
When Walker left the slider in the zone, right-handed hitters were crushing it in 2025. That’s evident by Walker’s slider allowing a .294 wOBA (.307 xwOBA) in 2025 and a .256 wOBA (.271 xwOBA) in 2024 against right-handed hitters when thrown in the zone.
Nonetheless, with Doval gone, Walker should eat up the majority of the Giants’ save chances.
The one wild card involves the Giants having a new manager in Tony Vitello, who comes from the college ranks formerly as the coach at the University of Tennessee. Will Vitello rely on Walker or make it somewhat of a closer committee in San Francisco? Walker’s draft price is somewhat discounted, making him an interesting mid-round second closer to target.
Fades
Daniel Palencia, Cubs (Yahoo ADP 171.1)
The Cubs tried to lean on veteran Ryan Pressly as their closer in 2025, but he struggled and they turned to Daniel Palencia, who was one of the waiver-wire gems at the closer position in 2025. He dealt with a shoulder strain in early September, then returned later that month. There’s a chance Palencia could take another step forward in 2026, given the above-average 13.6% swinging-strike rate. Like other relievers, Palencia struggled with control, though his ball rate improved to 34% after being around 39-40% in the previous two seasons.
Daniel Palencia swing and miss by month. (Photo by Corbin Young)
Palencia’s slider continues to headline his arsenal, with a 19.6% swinging-strike rate in 2025, compared to a career average of 21.5%. The slider added nearly three inches of downward movement in 2025, as a breaking ball that he throws low and away to right-handed hitters. Palencia’s slider generates whiffs and weak contact (.231 wOBA, .175 xwOBA) against right-handed hitters in 2025.
Daniel Palencia wOBA vs. LHB by month. (Photo by Corbin Young)
Unfortunately, left-handed hitters crushed Palencia’s slider (.383 wOBA, .313 xwOBA) and four-seamer (.352 wOBA, .366 xwOBA). That suggests Palencia needs an offering to suppress left-handed hitters or they’ll continue to do damage. He sprinkled in a splitter 38 times (8.6%) that allowed a .147 wOBA (.225 xwOBA) against lefties in 2025. It’s easier said than done, but it would benefit Palencia to work on developing a splitter to attack lefties.
That said, if Palencia struggles to find another pitch to address the issues against left-handed hitters, we could see the Cubs turn toward Phil Maton or Hunter Harvey.
Trevor Megill, Brewers (Yahoo ADP 158.1)
Trevor Megill (6) and Abner Uribe (5) shared save chances in the second half of the 2025 season. Megill dealt with an elbow strain in late August, causing him to miss over one month before returning in late September. It’s concerning when a pitcher ends the season injured; hard to have injury optimism heading into the following season. That’s especially true with Megill, who averaged over one month on the injured list in four of the past five seasons.
Trevor Megill’s 10-game rolling average. (Photo by Corbin Young/Fangraphs)
Megill has been successful, compiling 51 saves over the past two seasons. The skills support Megill’s save chances, evidenced by a 32% ball rate and a nearly 15% swinging-strike rate over the past two seasons. Megill saw the ratios improve late in the 2025 season, with a slight uptick in his swinging-strike rate. We’re not denying Megill’s skills and recent track record, but there’s a good chance Megill misses time again in 2026, opening the door for Uribe.
Uribe’s stuff finally led to save chances in 2025, though there should be some ratio regression, since he had a 2.80 xERA, over one run higher than his actual ERA (1.67). With Uribe’s sinker and slider mix, he provides that optimal groundball and strikeout approach. That’s evident in Uribe’s sinker generating a 64% groundball rate and the slider inducing a 19% swinging-strike rate.
The draft market has been torn on Megill and Uribe, but we prefer to take a chance on Uribe since he possesses the stuff to generate whiffs and weak contact, without the injury history of Megill.
Sleepers
Dennis Santana, Pirates (Yahoo ADP 181.9)
In the second half of the season, Dennis Santana had 10 of the 12 saves for the Pirates. They traded David Bednar to the Yankees, aligning with Santana earning save chances. Bednar struggled in 2024, and Aroldis Chapman stole save opportunities. Santana has been waiting for his chance, and he performed relatively well in 2025.
He might be due for regression since he outperformed his expected ERA (3.96), with an actual ERA of 2.18. Santana showed better control, with a 30% ball rate in 2025 compared to a career ball rate at 34%. Meanwhile, Santana’s swinging-strike rate was above 13% again in 2025, suggesting there’s above-average stuff, but not near-elite. However, Santana does have one near-elite pitch for whiffs via the slider, given a 20.1% swinging-strike rate.
As Santana should, he increased his slider usage to 46.4% in 2025, up from 32.3% in 2024. Santana made a 10 percentage point increase in usage to right-handed hitters (49.3%) with a 20-point jump to lefties (42.5%). Interestingly, Santana’s slider doesn’t have an above-average movement profile, yet it generates weak contact against righties (.207 wOBA, .222 xwOBA) and lefties (.225 wOBA, .270 xwOBA).
Dennis Santana induced pitch movement profiles. (Photo by Corbin Young)
That could suggest Santana commands his slider well since it doesn’t have a filthy movement profile. Or Santana’s slider keeps hitters guessing with another pitch having a similar profile, which can be seen via the induced movement profiles above. It’s probably a mixture of both factors, with the cutter being a harder-thrown version of the slider. Santana’s cutter elicits weak contact (.265 wOBA, .322 xwOBA) to right-handed hitters. However, Santana’s cutters tend to be less effective against lefties (.313 wOBA, .317 xwOBA) in 2025.
Besides Bednar, Santana had the highest game leverage index on the Pirates, showing the team trusts him in high-leverage situations. Santana fits nicely as an RP2 for around 25 saves at a cheaper draft cost.
Pete Fairbanks, Marlins (Yahoo ADP 163.7)
Pete Fairbanks logged 20 or more saves for three consecutive seasons, though he earned 77% of the team’s saves in 2025, which was unusual. For context, Fairbanks had 45% of the team’s saves in 2024 and 60% of the team’s saves in 2023. It’s worth noting that Fairbanks has dealt with his fair share of injuries in 2023 and 2024, causing him to miss over one month in both seasons. Meanwhile, Fairbanks was healthy in 2025.
He signed with the Marlins in December on a one-year deal worth $13 million, so it’s a low-risk investment for the Marlins that they could move at the trade deadline. When healthy, Fairbanks typically performed well with the strikeout skills to support the outcomes. Fairbanks had a 12.8% swinging-strike rate in 2025, with a career low in 2024 (9.5%). However, Fairbanks boasted a swinging-strike rate north of 13% throughout his career.
Interestingly, Fairbanks’s slider took a slight step back from a whiff standpoint, with a 13% swinging-strike rate in 2025 and 10.3% in 2024. That aligns with the overall dip in swinging-strike rate during the past two seasons. The slider’s movement profile suggests more whiffs on breaking pitch that generates 6.5 inches more downward movement than the average slider. Typically, we find pitches that possess more vertical movement tend to elicit more whiffs.
Pete Fairbanks slider heatmaps 2025. (Photo by Corbin Young/MLB.com)
My guess would be slider locations might be an issue, though a reliever’s pitches can be volatile in smaller samples. Based on the slider heatmaps, it looks like he might be throwing it too often in the heart of the zone, which leads opposing hitters to wait on the slider. We’ve heard rumors that the Rays’ pitchers have been instructed to throw their best pitches in the heart of the zone, to see whether opposing hitters can hit them. Fairbanks may want to focus on a location adjustment for the slider if the high-end downward movement isn’t generating the expected whiffs.
Pete Fairbanks slider heatmaps 2024. (Photo by Corbin Young/MLB.com)
The other concern involves Fairbanks having potential left-handed hitter problems. Left-handed hitters have been doing damage and making loud contact against the four-seamer over the past two seasons, with the slider being decent, but not dominant. That’s especially true since left-handed hitters have been crushing the heater, evidenced by a .341 wOBA (.376 xwOBA) in 2025 and a .379 wOBA (.369 xwOBA) in 2024. Fairbanks may want to develop the changeup that he hardly uses, with a career 18% swinging-strike rate. Furthermore, Fairbanks’s changeup allowed a .204 wOBA (.232 xwOBA) against left-handed hitters in a small sample of 40 pitches in 2025.
The Marlins have been rotating relievers as their primary closer. A.J. Puk (15), Tanner Scott (12) and Dylan Floro (7) led the Marlins in saves in 2023. Scott (18) and Calvin Faucher (6) were the only two Marlins’ relievers with five or more saves in 2024. Then Faucher (15) led the team in saves with Ronny Henriquez (7) sneaking into the mix in 2025. Faucher still remains on the Marlins, but Fairbanks showed he can handle the majority of the team’s save opportunities with the Rays across multiple seasons.
The Rays value stuff, as they rank second in Stuff+ behind the Phillies. Griffin Jax possesses near-elite stuff, evidenced by two primary pitches eliciting a swinging-strike rate above 21% via the slider (21.1%) and changeup (27%). Jax’s sweeper is nasty against right-handed hitters, allowing a .149 wOBA (.168 xwOBA). On the flip side, Jax’s changeup serves as a deadly option to lefties, with a .146 wOBA (.150 xwOBA).
Griffin Jax swing & miss % by season. (Photo by Corbin Young)
Edwin Uceta could be in the mix for saves with Jax, making this a muddy reliever room to figure out. Uceta’s arsenal doesn’t grade well in Stuff models, likely because he throws from a lower arm angle (14 degrees), giving him a Luis Castillo-type arm slot. He throws two pitches with an above-average swinging-strike rate, including the four-seam (17.6%) and changeup (19.1%).
Edwin Uceta average arm angle by season. (Photo by Corbin Young)
With the lower armslot, Uceta’s changeup and four-seam seem to have reverse splits, where the changeup performs better against right-handed hitters (.191 wOBA, .258 xwOBA) and four-seam is better against lefties (.221 wOBA, .227 xwOBA).
Uceta’s draft price has been slightly lower than Jax’s. We’ll want to take shots at the Rays’ closer options, but don’t over-invest in either one.