It’s flown under the radar a bit, drowned out by higher-wattage, Wilt-abutting feats of offensive significance, but the Los Angeles Clippers earned their own bit of NBA history this week — a perhaps ignominious honor, but an honor all the same.

You might recall the Clippers were, well, down horrendous earlier this season. What was constructed to be the oldest NBA roster ever got off to a positively disastrous start, going 3-18 from early November through mid-December amid an unsettling investigation into reports the organization deliberately sought to circumvent the salary cap to sign Kawhi Leonard in 2019, a raft of injuries to a number of key contributors (including, most notably, Leonard) and the near-immediate curdling and stunning end of Chris Paul’s return to the franchise. A week before Christmas, they sat at 6-21, a half-game out of last place in the West, with the NBA’s third-worst defense and the point differential of a 24-win team.

No team in NBA history that had fallen 15 games below .500 had ever clawed its way back to a winning record in that same season … until now. Wednesday’s emphatic 153-128 drubbing of the Minnesota Timberwolves brought the Clippers to 33-32 on the season — back above .500 for the first time since Halloween, making them the first team in NBA history to get all the way back into the black after being so deep in the red.

The Clippers have won six of their last seven, moving ahead of the injury-wracked and sputtering Warriors into eighth place in the Western Conference. At 6.5 games back of the sixth-place Wolves with just 17 games left, it’s nearly impossible that the Clips will be able to climb out of the play-in tournament; the public–facingprojectionmodels give them single-digit odds of rising all the way up to sixth over the final month.

If they can advance out of the play-in, though, they’ll be the proverbial Team Nobody Wants To Face in Round 1 — a team that boasts the NBA’s second-best record and fifth-best net rating since Dec. 20, that has outscored opponents by 9.4 points per 100 possessions since drastically overhauling its roster at February’s trade deadline, that is undefeated since newcomer Darius Garland’s debut two weeks ago … and that can enter damn near any matchup with a legitimate reason to believe it has the best player in the series.

After that dominant victory over the Wolves, head coach Tyronn Lue was asked what was working so well in an offensive explosion that tied the Clippers’ franchise mark for the most points ever scored in a regulation game. His answer, according to Clippers beat reporter Justin Russo, was two words long: “Kawhi Leonard.”

The Clippers felt like a relative winner of the 2026 NBA trade deadline, if only because their decisions to trade James Harden (a 36-year-old All-Star point guard who can enter unrestricted free agency this summer) for Garland (a 26-year-old All-Star point guard under contract through 2028) and Ivica Zubac (an about-to-turn 29-year-old starting center) for 23-year-old Bennedict Mathurin, 24-year-old Isaiah Jackson and what could be a mid-lottery pick in the highly touted 2026 NBA Draft seemed to signal an organizational understanding that the time had come to look to the future. Those moves suggested a dawning awareness that the championship contender the franchise had hoped was on the horizon ever since 2019 just wasn’t coming, and that the most prudent course of action would be to start focusing on building the next competitive iteration of Clippers basketball.

“Obviously, you need luck in this league,” Leonard told reporters after the Harden trade. “With shots, with injuries, with everything, so it’s just how it played out. I wanted to give it another run, but it didn’t happen that way, so now we’re here. […] [That era is] over. Guys are gone.”

One thing the Clippers didn’t do, though — in spite of significant reported interest — was trade Kawhi. And that matters. Because, as it turns out — even after all the load management and letdowns, all the injuries and investigations — “the next competitive iteration of Clippers basketball” might still just be “the one with Kawhi on it.”

Leonard is averaging a career-high 28.3 points per game, tied for seventh in the NBA, to go with 6.4 rebounds and 3.8 assists, shooting 50.3% from the field, 38% from 3-point range and 90.6% from the foul line — good for a true shooting percentage of 63%. He’s shooting 75% at the rim and 51% from midrange, both matching or exceeding career highs; he is scoring more, and more efficiently, than he has in his entire 14-year career, all while being tied for the league lead in steals and ranking just outside the top 15 in total deflections.

Out of 91 players getting at least 55 touches per game, Leonard ranks first in points per touch, ahead of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Victor Wembanyama and every other high-volume scorer in the game. He is drawing every team’s best perimeter defender every night, demanding in-your-jersey attention to one of the league’s highest degrees, and rendering it irrelevant with maddeningly metronomic consistency. (Leonard has scored 20 or more points in 43 consecutive games, which might not sound like a lot at this particular moment, but is, I assure you, a lot — the second-longest such streak in Clippers franchise history, and the 14th-longest since the introduction of the 3-point line in 1979.)

His ability to just disregard a defense’s best-laid plans and most honorable intentions, repeatedly getting to his spots for those automatic line-drive midrange pull-ups, can be awe-inspiring … even to the other best scorers in the world.

“In all honesty, Kawhi might be one of the best players to ever play the game when he’s healthy,” Minnesota superstar Anthony Edwards told reporters after watching Leonard hang 40-plus on his Wolves for the second time in just over a month. “I think a lot of his peers feel the same way about him. If he’s healthy, 100%, ain’t no stopping Kawhi. So I mean, you gotta deal with it. And he dealt it to us tonight. Again.”

Yes, it’s that time of year again: Winter’s turning to spring, Lucy’s holding the football, and Leonard — looking fully healthy after dealing with an early-season ailment — is dealing it to … well, everyone.

As ever, Leonard’s brand of ball — high-volume, high-efficiency scoring; extremely low-turnover play; additive work as a defensive rebounder and secondary facilitator — makes him one of the highest-impact players in the sport, and an advanced statistical darling. For the season, he ranks second in DARKO daily plus-minus; third in player efficiency rating and regularized adjusted plus-minus; fifth in box plus-minus, value over replacement player, estimated plus-minus and The BBall Index’s LEBRON; and ninth in win shares and win shares per 48 minutes. The Clippers have outscored opponents by 7 points per 100 non-garbage-time possessions in his minutes — equivalent to a top-five net rating over the course of the full season — and have been outscored by 6.5 points-per-100 when he’s not on the court. That plus-13.5 on/off swing is the third-largest in the NBA among players who’ve logged at least 1,000 minutes, behind only Nikola Jokić and Wembanyama.

That sort of résumé would put him in the company of upper-echelon MVP candidates like Gilgeous-Alexander, Jokić and Wembanyama, though the Clippers’ status as a play-in squad would likely prevent him from climbing too far up the ballot … if, that is, he even winds up meeting the 65-game requirement for year-end awards consideration. Entering Friday’s meeting with the Chicago Bulls, Leonard has played in 51 of the Clippers’ 65 games, meaning he can miss only three games the rest of the way.

The Clippers have gone 29-22 in those 51 appearances, compared to 4-10 without him — and 25-9 with Leonard in the lineup, a 60-win pace, since Dec. 20. That includes five wins in five tries since the addition of Garland — a hiccup-quick, high-volume and high-accuracy 3-point shooter who’s also an elite pick-and-roll playmaker when healthy.

The Clips have outscored opponents by 40 points in 77 minutes with both Leonard and Garland on the floor, scoring a scorching 136.3 points per 100 possessions. (They’ve also won the non-Kawhi minutes when Garland’s there to run the show, which is a handy bonus.) They’re still getting to know one another and ironing out the kinks, but the early returns have been very promising — and, to hear the new arrival tell it, the learning curve hasn’t been nearly as steep as you might think.

“It’s pretty easy to play with him,” Garland recently told reporters. “Because everybody’s afraid of him.”

Each week during the 2025-26 NBA season, we will take a deeper dive into some of the league’s biggest storylines in an attempt to determine whether trends are based more in fact or fiction moving forward.

Last week: Expect Jayson Tatum to be Jayson Tatum again this season

Fact or Fiction: The NBA will have another 100-point scorer

We are here to see if anyone could ever score 100 points again, which is a bit of a silly question, because if someone has done it before, chances are it could happen again.

But Wilt Chamberlain’s 100 points were anomalous in a way that made it feel like it was not possible to match his output in the modern era, even with the 3-point line.

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After all, only Kobe Bryant had ever scored 80 points in a game — until Tuesday night, when the Miami Heat’s Bam Adebayo erupted for 83 points (on 43 field-goal attempts and 43 free-throw attempts), forever altering what we thought possible in the NBA.

If Adebayo can score 83, then surely someone — more of a scorer — could net 100, or so the thinking goes. Adebeyo ranks 33rd among all NBA players in points per game (20), even after his historic night. Heck, if Adebayo had converted 13 of his 22 3-point attempts, just as Damian Lillard did on his 71-point night, he would have gotten to 101.

So, there we have identified something: One may need to play with both the force of Adebayo — the relentlessness to attack the basket over and over again, drawing fouls in the process — and the finesse of Lillard, who can and will take and make a ton of 3s.

Here is how everyone who has scored 70 points got there — on 2s, 3s and free throws.

Joel Embiid	70 points	23-39 2P	1-2 3P	21-23 FT
Devin Booker	70 points	17-29 2P	4-11 3P	24-26 FT
David Robinson	71 points	25-39 2P	1-2 3P	18-25 FT
Donovan Mitchell	71 points	15-19 2P	7-15 3P	20-25 FT
Damian Lillard	71 points	9-16 2P	13-22 3P	14-14 FT
Elgin Baylor	71 points	28-48 2P	0-0 3P	15-19 FT
David Thompson	73 points	28-38 2P	0-0 3P	17-20 FT
Luka Dončić	73 points	17-20 2P	8-13 3P	15-16 FT
Kobe Bryant	81 points	21-33 2P	7-13 3P	18-20 FT
Bam Adebayo	83 points	13-21 2P	7-22 3P	36-43 FT
Wilt Chamberlain	100 points	36-63 2P	0-0 3P	28-32 FT

So, you also need to take a ton of shots, both in the field and at the free-throw line.

The 63 field goals Chamberlain attempted in his 100-point game also stand as a record. Chamberlain attempted 50 or more field goals on 14 occasions, another record. Only four other players across six occasions in NBA history — Joe Fulks (three times in the 1940s), Elgin Baylor (December 1961), Rick Barry (February 1967) and Bryant (April 2016) — have ever attempted 50 or more field goals in a single game.

Only once in the past 50 years has anyone attempted 50 field goals, and that took the spectacle of Bryant’s farewell game to make happen. He scored 60 points in his exit and easily could have gotten to 80 again, had he been more efficient. (Story of his career.)

That is what shooting 50 shots in a game is, after all: a spectacle. But so is playing the Washington Wizards, as Adebayo did on Tuesday. Tanking is a joke, so why not lean against it, and try your ass off against them, shooting 50 shots in the process. Players should be salivating at the thought of facing a team that has given up on its season.

On only 203 occasions in the 79-year history of the NBA has someone attempted 40 field goals in a game. Chamberlain accounts for 103 of them. It happens about once a year on average. It did not happen last season. It has happened twice this year, once by Adebayo and once when Cade Cunningham scored 46 points on 14-of-45 shooting.

Had Cunningham been hot instead, he could have easily gotten to 70-plus points.

And that’s the thing. When you shoot a ton, you score a ton, or you better score a ton.

Only nine active players have attempted 40 field goals in a game — Russell Westbrook (three times), James Harden, Dejounte Murray, Jalen Brunson, Tyrese Maxey, Booker, Embiid, Cunningham and Adebayo — and they averaged 57.9 points in those games. What if they attempted 50 shots? Or 60 shots? They might average in the 70s or 80s.

If enough people were to attempt 50 shots in a game, someone would get hot, and once that happens, you can get to 80 points pretty quick, especially if the 3-point line is involved. Go 35-for-50 — within the realm of possibility — making 20 2s and 15 3s, and you are at 85 points before you ever get to the free-throw line. Now, imagine 60 shots.

It is probably no coincidence that the only 100-point game happened on the one night in NBA history someone decided to attempt more than 60 field goals in a single game.

Give Nikola Jokić 63 shots, as Chamberlain took on March 2, 1962, and, statistically speaking, on average, he would score 79 points before he even attempts a free throw.

The free throws are what separated Chamberlain. He made 28 of 32 of them on the night he broke the record. If that seems like a lot, it is because it is. Only six times in NBA history has someone attempted more than those 32 free throws in one game, and all of them were centers who were put their on purpose — Wilt, Dwight Howard, Andre Drummond and DeAndre Jordan — until Adebayo changed the game Tuesday.

His 43 free-throw attempts were the most in NBA history — four attempts more than the previous record (which Howard, a 56.7% career free-throw shooter, set twice). If someone can get to the line that many times, of course a 100-point game is possible.

It might even be probable.

Now, it might sound simple: All you must do is take more field goals than most anyone has ever taken in a single game and take more free throws than most anyone has ever taken in a single game, do it on the same night, and you will see extraordinary results.

But it is true. On four occasions, someone has attempted 40 or more field goals and 30 or more free throws on the same night — Chamberlain (three times) and Adebayo — and that has yielded three of the four highest-scoring games of all time. Go figure.

Which is what made Bryant’s 81-point game so special. He did it on only 20 free-throw attempts, meaning he just shot his way there. And people can shoot better now. Let Stephen Curry attempt 46 shots, and see how long it takes for him to get to 81 points.

Let him shoot 63 times, and he might walk into 100 points.

But people do not let you shoot, once it gets to a certain point, as we saw with Adebayo on Tuesday. Opponents have pride. Even the Wizards. So, you have to take it, and to take it you have to play with a ferocity that Curry may not be able to match.

It is why Adebayo found himself in such a perfect storm. He tries so freaking hard. And, if the other team is not trying, and nobody else is around to score, what is best for the team is that Adebayo goes nuts, and he always does what is best for the team.

Bryant was different. He tried like hell, too, but his team at the time of his 81-point game was built for him to be its singular scorer. He had already attempted 40 or more shots in a game twice in the month before his career performance, scoring 58 and 50 points, both on sub-50% shooting. He was, believe it or not, due for his 81-point night.

Let Luka Dončić or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander go on a heater, shooting 45 times a night over a month-long stretch. See how long it takes one of them to get to their 80-plus points.

That is how this works. Probabilities in time are inevitabilities, and as the probability of a 70- or 80-point game increases, an inevitability of a 101-point outlier becomes likelier.

You are telling me someone will not score 20 2s, 15 3s and 15 free throws in a night, equaling 100 points? Even if that player does not exist at this point, if Victor Wembanyama has taught us anything, it is that such a person will exist at some point.

He just has to have the will to get up 40, 50 or 60 shots on a night, to get to the free-throw line 20-30 times, too, and his opponent must lack the will to stop him. A perfect storm. They happen, as we saw Tuesday. What if someone more efficient comes along? It will happen, inevitably, and maybe it will put an end to tanking in the process.

Determination: Fact. There will be another 100-point scorer. Adebayo proved that.

You think the Dodgers are breaking baseball? Try being another team in the National League West. Los Angeles has won this division in 12 of the past 13 seasons, and its win total in the season of that lone second-place finish (106) is tied for the team’s second-best mark over that 13-year stretch.

There was a sense that the Dodgers were toying with the competition for much of last season, as they used their depth to rest any pitcher with a minor ailment before turning their full roster loose down the stretch and winning a second straight World Series title.

After adding Kyle Tucker and Edwin Díaz in the offseason, the Los Angeles juggernaut might be stronger than ever. Given that the Padres might’ve taken a small step backward this winter and the Giants have hovered around .500 for several seasons, the Dodgers should comfortably finish ahead of the pack again in 2026.

The quest for San Diego, San Francisco and Arizona will be to earn a wild-card berth, which might be too much to ask. Meanwhile, the Rockies will be looking for any improvement after a historically bad 2025 season.

Read more previews: NL East | NL Central | AL East | AL Central | AL West

Los Angeles Dodgers

Projected record (per FanGraphs, as of March 13): 99-63, 98.9% odds to make the playoffs, 93.5% odds to win the division

What happened last season? The Dodgers plodded along during the regular season, posting their lowest winning percentage (.574) since 2018, which was still good enough to win the NL West for the 12th time in 13 years. They rolled through the National League in the postseason, going 9-1 against the Reds, Phillies and Brewers, before winning one of the most memorable World Series in MLB history with an extra-innings, Game 7 victory over the Blue Jays. Yoshinobu Yamamoto was named World Series MVP, and Shohei Ohtani won the NL MVP award for the second straight year. The team’s slow start in 2025 was mainly due to an injury-riddled rotation. The starters eventually returned to action and were excellent in October. The lineup was much more stable and led the senior circuit in runs scored.

What happened in the offseason? The rich got richer over the winter. After dealing with ninth-inning inconsistencies throughout 2025, the Dodgers solved that problem by signing the best closer on the open market, Edwin Díaz. And those who responded to that signing by saying the Dodgers were ruining baseball got even more fodder for their outrage when the team signed the consensus top free agent, outfielder Kyle Tucker. On a smaller scale, World Series hero Miguel Rojas and utilityman Enrique Hernández were each re-signed for another season. Los Angeles didn’t lose a single player who made substantial contributions last year.

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Best-case scenario for 2026: As absurd as it sounds, the season will be a disappointment if the Dodgers finish as anything other than World Series champions. Their offense is loaded, with Tucker (career .865 OPS) joining a group that has finished no lower than second in runs scored the past four seasons. The lineup includes five players who logged an OPS over .840 last year, and that doesn’t include superstar Mookie Betts or accomplished slugger Teoscar Hernández. The rotation is as deep as the lineup and could be the best in baseball if Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell and Roki Sasaki can stay healthy. And with a new anchor in Díaz, the bullpen suddenly features a solid group of setup men, including Tanner Scott, Alex Vesia and Blake Treinen. Plus, Ohtani is the greatest player the sport has ever seen and seems to find a way to get better each season. Only a rash of poorly timed injuries or terrible October luck would cause the Dodgers to finish short of their ultimate goal.

Worst-case scenario: The Dodgers finished 17th in ERA last season, as injuries to the rotation and some disappointments in the bullpen held the pitching staff back for most of the year. Similar issues could emerge in 2026, considering that Glasnow and Snell have lengthy injury histories. Sasaki, Treinen and Scott all struggled last season. Weaknesses can be shored up at the trade deadline, but if injuries happen late in the season, the Dodgers might be unable to use their wealth and prospect pool to fix their problems. It’s harder to envision the offense slowing down, but there’s certainly a chance the Dodgers’ bats could be stifled in October. After all, the Blue Jays were two outs away from disposing of the Dodgers last fall.

Make-or-break player: EdwinDíaz. The Dodgers showed last year that they could survive an injury or slump from virtually any player. Still, Díaz is the one man on this team who is being counted on to single-handedly stabilize a weakness. Los Angeles ranked 21st in bullpen ERA last season while the All-Star closer was having a stellar campaign with the Mets. If Díaz can repeat his recent success in 2026, the Dodgers will be a team without a weakness.

Season prediction: The Dodgers are heavy World Series favorites and will likely get the job done for a third straight season. Sure, there will be some bumps in the road, but the front office has the intelligence, financial backing and prospect pool to work around any setbacks.

Read more: NL West offseason grades

San Diego Padres

Projected record: 80-82, 22.4% odds to make the playoffs, 1.2% odds to win the division

What happened last season? The Padres kept the Dodgers in their sights all season, and though they couldn’t keep pace with their archrivals, they comfortably grabbed a wild-card spot with a 90-win season. Unfortunately, an offense that was mediocre throughout the year caught up with the team in October, when the Padres scored five runs in three games while losing to the Cubs in the wild-card round. By design, San Diego’s bullpen was the team’s strength. Mason Miller was added at the trade deadline, joining a group that included Robert Suarez, Jason Adam, Adrian Morejon and Jeremiah Estrada. They led the majors by a wide margin with a 3.06 ERA. There were fewer stellar performances in the rotation, though Nick Pivetta deserves credit for a breakout season in his first year with the club.  

What happened in the offseason? It’s hard to avoid the conclusion that the Padres got worse over the winter. Sure, Dylan Cease struggled last season, but his ability to eat innings will be missed in the rotation. And although the bullpen has the depth to withstand the loss of Suarez, his absence weakens a stellar group. The lineup will miss Luis Arraez and Ryan O’Hearn, who did their part to support the team’s stars. Retaining Michael King with a three-year contract was a necessary move. And there’s hope that Sung-Mun Song, who arrived from the KBO, and Miguel Andujar, who signed a reasonable, one-year contract, can make contributions. The same can be said for Nick Castellanos, who joined the Padres after being released by the Phillies at the outset of spring training.

Best-case scenario for 2026: The Padres can survive the roster departures if some of their key players fare better in 2026 than they did in 2025. Since missing the entire 2022 season, Fernando Tatis Jr. has been good (.803 OPS); the Padres need him to be great. After all, he logged a .965 OPS from 2019 to ‘21 and should be in his prime right now. There’s also considerable room for third-year outfielder Jackson Merrill to improve on a disappointing sophomore season. Merrill, who will turn 23 in April, produced an .826 OPS as a 21-year-old rookie in 2024. Xander Bogaerts could also turn things around after two lackluster seasons. Thanks to the relief corps, the Padres’ rotation doesn’t have to be great. But getting more than 15 starts from King will help, as will the return of Joe Musgrove, who missed all of 2025. If everything goes well, this team can win 90 games.

Worst-case scenario: The rotation is the most vulnerable part of the team. Pivetta will be hard-pressed to repeat such a stellar year, and there’s no guarantee that Musgrove will make meaningful contributions. There is also a lack of exciting options for the final two rotation spots, and the lineup lacks depth. Jake Cronenworth, Gavin Sheets, Andujar and Song have mediocre offensive abilities. If Tatis and Merrill cannot improve their performances, this will be an average offense at best. And if the team is consistently losing after five innings, it won’t matter how dominant the bullpen is.

Make-or-break player: Joe Musgrove. The Padres desperately need their ace to return to form. When healthy, the right-hander is an excellent starter who can produce a low-3.00s ERA over 150 to 180 innings. By Opening Day, he will have had more than 17 months to recover from October 2024 Tommy John surgery. If they can stay healthy, the Padres’ front three of Musgrove, Pivetta and King would rival the rotations of most teams in the NL.

Season prediction: Unless the Padres’ ever-creative president of baseball operations, A.J. Preller, pulls a rabbit out of his hat, this team will fall short of a postseason berth. San Diego lacks depth in the lineup and rotation, and several other NL teams got better over the winter. Although it will be close, the Padres should still have enough firepower to stay ahead of the Giants and Diamondbacks and finish second in the division.

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San Francisco Giants

Projected record: 83-79, 38.1% odds to make the playoffs, 2.9% odds to win the division

What happened last season? A multiyear string of mediocrity in San Francisco continued. The Giants finished 81-81, marking the fourth year in a row they won between 79 and 81 games. Their mediocrity was somewhat balanced, as they ranked 10th in ERA and 17th in runs scored. Logan Webb was the team’s lone standout player, as he led the majors with 207 innings, ranked third with 224 strikeouts and finished fifth in pitching WAR (5.5). There were a few other solid contributors, such as Willy Adames and Matt Chapman. Patrick Bailey continued to be baseball’s best defensive catcher. But there were also negatives, namely Rafael Devers, who was disappointing after arriving in a shocking June trade. 

What happened in the offseason? The Giants’ biggest splash of the offseason came with their managerial hiring, as they brought in Tony Vitello from the University of Tennessee. Vitello, known for his passionate and candid style, has never coached in professional baseball at any level. In free agency, the Giants landed a quartet of second- or third-tier players but were never seriously involved with the marquee names. There were two additions to the rotation, as Tyler Mahle signed a one-year contract and Adrian Houser joined the team on a two-year deal. Both starters pitched well last year, although Houser’s success was surprising and Mahle was limited by a shoulder injury to 16 outings.

Center fielder Harrison Bader and infielder Luis Arraez were the top lineup additions. The 31-year-old Bader is coming off his best offensive season but is typically a more mediocre hitter (career 96 wRC+). Strong defensive skills are his calling card. Arraez, who will likely hit leadoff and work at second base or as DH, is baseball’s best contact hitter but makes average contributions overall, due to his poor defensive skills and lack of power and speed.

Best-case scenario for 2026: Although the Giants cannot challenge the Dodgers, they could rise up to second place in this division and contend for a postseason berth. To make that happen, they’ll need Devers to return to the superstar form he showed for several seasons in Boston. It would also help if top prospect Bryce Eldridge has a smooth transition to the majors after getting his feet wet in September. San Francisco will have an effective rotation if Webb and Robbie Ray are backed by Mahle, Houser and Landen Roupp. And while Ryan Walker stumbled when handed the closer’s role at the start of 2025, he has the skills to fare better this time around. 

Worst-case scenario: If the additions of Arraez and Bader fail to make a notable impact, this lineup will be average at best. Aside from Devers, the players in the top half of the lineup are solid, not special. And while the offense profiles as a high-floor, low-ceiling group, the rotation could really let the team down. Ray logged a 5.54 ERA in the second half of 2025. Mahle made 24 starts the past three seasons combined, Houser has mediocre career numbers (4.06 ERA, 1.36 WHIP) and Roupp averaged fewer than five innings per start last year. The relief corps also lacks proven options. Finishing fourth in the division is a possibility for the Giants.

Make-or-break player: Ryan Walker. The Giants’ closer needs to stabilize the relief corps by logging a 30-save season. He’s the only member of the group who has both the swing-and-miss skills and the major-league experience to handle the ninth inning. He went 7-for-9 in save chances last year after Randy Rodríguez was lost for the season. The results were inconsistent, but the right-hander dealt with poor luck last year (.318 BABIP, 67.2% strand rate). He could be much better this time around. 

Season prediction: The Mets’ late-season collapse kept the Giants and several other teams in the wild-card race longer than they deserved. They probably won’t be as lucky this year. Another season hovering around .500 is the most likely expectation, and that would put the San Francisco front office in a tough spot at the trade deadline. This team needs two more impactful players: one for the lineup and one for the rotation.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Projected record: 82-80, 34% odds to make the playoffs, 2.4% odds to win the division

What happened last season? Arizona entered July sitting at 42-42 before posting a 9-16 record over the next month, which forced the front office to make some tough decisions. In the end, the D-backs were among the most aggressive sellers at the trade deadline, swapping Eugenio Suárez, Josh Naylor and Merrill Kelly for a collection of prospects. The offense wasn’t the problem, as even with the departures of key players, Arizona finished sixth in baseball in runs scored. Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte continued to be game-changers, and Geraldo Perdomo was one of baseball’s biggest breakouts of 2025. 

The problems were on the mound. After signing a $210 million contract in the offseason, Corbin Burnes lasted just 11 starts before requiring Tommy John surgery. Others struggled to pick up the slack, as Zac Gallen, Brandon Pfaadt and Eduardo Rodriguez spent most of the season trying to get their ERAs below 5.00. The bullpen was no better, as most of the key pieces were sidelined by injuries.

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What happened in the offseason? The biggest moves of Arizona’s winter came a few days before Christmas, when the front office brought back Kelly on a two-year contract, and on the eve of Valentine’s Day, when Gallen returned on a one-year pact. Those two will lead the rotation, which might include oft-injured righty Michael Soroka, who arrived on a one-year deal. The only other notable move was a trade to add Nolan Arenado. The rebuilding Cardinals kicked in plenty of money to get Arenado off their roster, as his offensive numbers have declined sharply for three straight seasons. The D-backs will hope the former superstar has enough left in the tank to be a respectable hitter in the bottom half of their lineup. Finally, Carlos Santana was added on an inexpensive, one-year deal. The 39-year-old has a solid .777 career OPS, but his play fell off dramatically last year. Unfortunately, the D-backs’ offseason ended in disappointment, as Carroll needed February surgery on a broken hamate bone and could miss Opening Day.

Best-case scenario for 2026: The lineup should be able to do its part. Carroll shouldn’t miss too much of the regular season. He and Marte are among the best hitters in baseball, and Perdomo’s breakout was well-supported by skill improvements. Catcher Gabriel Moreno can give the team a big boost by staying healthy, and Adrian Del Castillo and Jordan Lawlar are two prospects ready to make significant contributions. Kelly and Ryne Nelson give the rotation two pitchers who can be relied on, and though they struggled last year, Gallen, Rodriguez and Pfaadt have solid records and should bounce back. If the rotation exceeds expectations, Arizona can stay in the postseason race into the second half.

Worst-case scenario: The most likely scenario is that the pitching staff dooms any chance of the D-backs having a winning season. Behind Kelly, Gallen and Nelson, there’s a serious lack of skill and depth. Soroka last logged a 100-inning season in 2019. Rodriguez and Pfaadt are likely to be ineffective, and the organization lacks MLB-ready pitching prospects who profile as more than innings-eaters. The bullpen is in even worse shape, as there are no surefire candidates for high-leverage roles. And while the lineup won’t be the team’s weakness, it might not be a notable strength this season. Arenado, Alek Thomas, Del Castillo and Lawlar are just as likely to be below-average hitters as they are to be impact players.

Make-or-break player: Gabriel Moreno. Getting more games out of the catcher would go a long way toward boosting this team’s chances to compete. His strong on-base skills make the 26-year-old an excellent candidate to bat out of a premium lineup spot. And as a plus defender at the most important position, his availability is essential to get the most out of a mediocre pitching staff. There might also be more power potential in his bat, as his quality of contact and fly-ball rate have steadily risen in recent years. 

Season prediction: This figures to be a retooling year in Arizona, while the organization waits to get Burnes back in 2027. Success this season might look like determining which players, particularly among Del Castillo, Lawlar, Pfaadt, Nelson and Thomas, can be part of the next wave of success. There will also be more trade rumors around Marte in July, and the front office will have to decide whether to recoup a package of prospects or keep Marte in hopes of competing in 2027.

Colorado Rockies

Projected record: 65-97, 0.2% odds to make the playoffs, 0.0% odds to win the division

What happened last season? To say 2025 was a forgettable year is a massive understatement. The Rockies got off to the worst start in MLB history, winning just eight of their first 50 games. They finished 43-119, which tied the 2003 Tigers for the second-worst record in the past 60 years. Their minus-424 run differential was the worst of any team since 1900 and indicative of a squad that not only lost a lot but also was blown out of many contests. Amid the rubble, there were a couple of positives. Hunter Goodman enjoyed a breakout season. He represented Colorado in the All-Star Game and led NL catchers in home runs (31) and RBI (91). Mickey Moniak was another success story. Released by the Angels near the end of spring training, Moniak joined the Rockies and had the best season of his six-year career.

What happened in the offseason? After such a miserable season, the Rockies were in no position to be major players in free agency. They did, however, add a couple of pieces. Utilityman Willi Castro arrived on a two-year contract. He can play virtually anywhere, which will be helpful for manager Warren Schaeffer, who lacks reliable options at most infield spots. There was also a minor trade to land outfielder Jake McCarthy. As someone who rarely strikes out and runs the bases well, he could be a perfect fit at Coors Field. Veteran pitchers were added in the form of Michael Lorenzen, Jose Quintana and Tomoyuki Sugano, who all signed one-year contracts. Lorenzen can handle a variety of roles but will likely be needed in the rotation. Sugano was unimpressive (4.64 ERA) across 30 starts as a 35-year-old rookie last season. Quintana enters his age-37 season on the heels of a solid 24-start campaign (3.96 ERA) with the Brewers.

Best-case scenario for 2026: The 2026 Rockies’ season will be measured by the development of young players. Goodman needs to cement his status as a top catcher by repeating his breakout season. Brenton Doyle must recover his 2024 form, and Ezequiel Tovar needs to to bounce back from an injury-impacted campaign. Jordan Beck can build on a respectable showing in his first full season in the majors. Two of the organization’s top prospects, Charlie Condon and Cole Carrigg, should be ready to debut by the second half. And former first-round draft pick Chase Dollander has plenty to prove after going 2-12 with a 6.52 ERA his rookie season. This season will be a successful one for Colorado if the front office can sit down in October and identify 10 players who can eventually be part of the next winning team.

Worst-case scenario: The Rockies might not be much better than they were last season. The offense should improve, perhaps pushing the team to 50 wins. But the pitching staff is a mess, and there are few bright spots on the horizon. All of the organization’s notable prospects are position players, which means the same cast of characters who combined for a 5.97 team ERA will be tasked with producing better results this year. That isn’t likely to happen.

Make-or-break player: Ezequiel Tovar needs to get his career back on track after hip and oblique injuries wreaked havoc on his 2025 season. Still just 24 years old and entering the third season of a seven-year contract, Tovar is one of the core pieces of this organization’s future. With better health, he should be able to match the 26 homers he hit in 2024. Currently, his lack of on-base skills make him a poor option to hit out of a premium lineup spot, but he made minor strides with his plate discipline last season, and this should be the year he finally posts an OBP over .300. Tovar could also improve his baserunning, as he has 56th-percentile sprint speed but has swiped just 22 bases in 414 career games.

Season prediction: We’re beginning another dismal season in Colorado. Forget a winning record; the Rockies can strive to match the progress of the 2025 White Sox, who went from 41 wins to 60. Colorado’s 597 runs scored last year marked a franchise-low for a 162-game season. If Tovar, Doyle, Beck, Goodman and Moniak can form the foundation of a respectable lineup and improve that run total, the organization’s die-hard fans should at least have something to cheer about.

The 2026 MLB season is almost here and that means you’re likely prepping for your fantasy baseball draft. One of the best ways to prepare is to do as many mock drafts as possible. Of course, sometimes it’s tough to find an accurate representation of your league settings by using the public mock draft lobby.

Not to fear! If you’re a Yahoo Fantasy+ subscriber, you have access to the Instant Mock Draft tool, allowing you to practice your draft in seconds. You can test different strategies, pick from various draft slots and experiment with roster construction as many times as you want, anytime, instantly. Now is a great time to subscribe to Yahoo Fantasy+, so you can use the wealth of tools for your draft prep.

[Yahoo Fantasy+ unlocks premium draft tools, player projections and more]

In this series, we’re going to be using the Instant Mock Draft tool to pick from each of the 12 slots in a 12-team fantasy baseball league. In this piece, we’ll be drafting from the No. 9 overall pick. We went with a balanced approach in this draft, alternating between selecting two batters and two pitchers.

More Mock Drafts

• No. 1 Pick

• No. 2 Pick

• No. 3 Pick

• No. 4 Pick

• No. 5 Pick

• No. 6 Pick

• No. 7 Pick

• No. 8 Pick

• No. 9 Pick

Note: We’re using Yahoo’s default points league settings for these mock drafts.

Full Roster

C: Ben Rice, Yankees
1B: Salvador Pérez, Royals
2B: Brice Turang, Brewers
SS: Jacob Wilson, Athletics
3B: Matt Chapman, Giants
OF: Ronald Acuña Jr., Braves
OF: Kyle Schwarber, Phillies
OF: Dylan Crews, Nationals
UTIL: Brendan Donovan, Mariners
UTIL: Luis Arráez, Giants
SP: Bryan Woo, Mariners
SP: Logan Webb, Giants
RP: David Bednar, Yankees
RP: Aroldis Chapman, Red Sox
P: Emmet Sheehan, Dodgers
P: MacKenzie Gore, Rangers
P: Matthew Boyd, Cubs
P: Aaron Nola, Phillies
Bench: Shane Smith, White Sox
Bench: Noah Cameron, Royals
Bench: Willi Castro, Rockies
Bench: Andrés Giménez, Blue Jays
Bench: Reid Detmers, Angels

Strategy overview: The idea here was balance and I like how things turned out. We also prioritized utility with how the roster is constructed. Four players have dual-position eligibility and two players have tri-eligibility. This isn’t something you should worry too much about while you’re drafting, but if the opportunity presents itself, it’ll make some roster decisions easier and serves as a nice tiebreaker when you’re debating who to take. It also helps if injuries pop up (which they will) and if players struggle at a certain position (which they also will).

Bats are best: Unless I can corner the market on elite starting pitchers and snag both Paul Skenes and Garrett Crochet at the back-end of the first and early-second, I’m going to almost always prioritize a bat in the first round. Acuña possesses the highest ceiling of players who are falling to the back-half of the first, so we opted to go that route (even though one of my other mocks has me reaching on him a bit). The Acuña-Schwarber stack gives me two NL MVP candidates who solidify the outfield position.

[Draft your Yahoo Fantasy Baseball team for the 2026 MLB Season]

World Woo Webb: I was able to grab two top-10 starters, according to Yahoo’s expert rankings from Scott Pianowski and Fred Zinkie. Woo and Webb are both starters in their primes in good situations, players you can “set and forget” in your lineup if they stay healthy. We didn’t take too many risks in this draft, at least not initially.

Webb has finished top-10 in NL Cy Young voting in three straight seasons. Woo had great numbers in 2025 (2.94 ERA, 198 Ks over 186.2 IP) but gave up a lot of longballs. If he can keep more pitches in the park, he could be an AL Cy Young finalist.

Not just for points: If you’re in a category league and not a points league — like the Yahoo default — this roster also appears to be very balanced. I snagged guys like Turang, Wilson, Arráez and Giménez to counter likely low averages for players like Schwarber, Chapman and possibly Pérez. You could also group Crews in there but he’s young enough that we should see some improvement.

Heated rivalry: Taking the Yankees and Red Sox closers wasn’t some weird narrative type of play. Like I said, we alternated between batters and pitchers, and it just made sense to grab two reliable closers in the seventh and eighth rounds. Similar to my two SPs, we shouldn’t have to worry too much about job security when it comes to Bednar and Chapman. Both are ranked in the top-10 RPs in our rankings.

Takeaways from the 9th pick: This felt a bit cookie-cutter in terms of strategy but was effective. I wasn’t scrambling to fill one of my starter spots late in the draft because I ignored a position or had a massive run on batters/pitchers. You do have to force a few picks, so it’s not the perfect approach if you really like a batter or pitcher who happens to fall to you. You can’t just blindly go 2-2 the entire draft. Stray from the path if you need to. But if you make a priority list of players you really like going into your draft, you can easily execute this strategy and feel like you came away with a win.