NBA playoff picture March 29: All of the scenarios and stakes for postseason contenders down the stretch run

The NBA playoff picture will come into clearer view each day between now and the end of the regular season on April 12. In the meantime, we will provide detailed daily updates on the landscape, including magic numbers, remaining schedules and the stakes for every day’s slate of games. And for those teams not in the postseason hunt, we also breakdown the “race” for the pole position in the upcoming NBA Draft lottery.

Jump to:Eastern ConferenceWestern Conference


(7) Philadelphia 76ers vs. (8) Orlando Magic
(9) Miami Heat vs. (10) Charlotte Hornets

(7) Phoenix Suns vs. (8) LA Clippers
(9) Portland Trail Blazers vs. (10) Golden State Warriors


(1) Detroit Pistons vs. (8) play-in winner
(2) Boston Celtics vs. (7) play-In winner
(3) New York Knicks vs. (6) Atlanta Hawks
(4) Cleveland Cavaliers vs. (5) Toronto Raptors

(1) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (8) play-In winner
(2) San Antonio Spurs vs. (7) play-In winner
(3) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (6) Houston Rockets
(4) Denver Nuggets vs. (5) Minnesota Timberwolves


In the Eastern Conference, the Detroit Pistons, Boston Celtics, New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers, in some order, appear bound for the top four playoff seeds and home-court advantage in the opening round. The Pistons, who hold a four-game lead on the Celtics, are almost certain to capture the East’s No. 1 seed, barring a complete meltdown in the absence of injured Cade Cunningham (collapsed lung).

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Who, exactly, those four teams will play in the opening round is up for grabs, as just two wins separate the fifth seed from the 10th seed. The Toronto Raptors, Atlanta Hawks, Philadelphia 76ers, Orlando Magic, Charlotte Hornets and Miami Heat are all jockeying for position down the stretch of a season that has surpassed 70 games.



Record: 54-20 | Net rating: 8.3 (3rd)

  • Clinched playoff berth

  • Magic number for No. 1 seed: 4

  • Remaining schedule: @OKC, TOR, MIN, @PHI, @ORL, MIL, @CHA, @IND

  • Highest possible finish: No. 1 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: No. 4 seed

What’s at stake: The No. 1 seed and home-court advantage throughout the Eastern Conference playoffs.



Record: (49-24) | Net rating: 7.8 (4th)

  • Magic number for No. 2 seed: 8

  • Remaining schedule: @CHA, @ATL, @MIA, @MIL, TOR, CHA, @NYK, NOP, ORL

  • Highest possible finish: No. 1 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: No. 7 seed

What’s at stake: The No. 2 seed and home-court advantage in the Eastern Conference semifinals.

Record: 48-26 | Net rating: 6.6 (5th)

  • Magic number for No. 3 seed: 7

  • Remaining schedule: @OKC, @HOU, @MEM, CHI, @ATL, BOS, TOR, CHA

  • Highest possible finish: No. 1 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: No. 7 seed

What’s at stake: The No. 2 seed and home-court advantage in the Eastern Conference semifinals.

Record: 46-28 | Net rating: 4.2 (8th)

  • Magic number for No. 4 seed: 5

  • Remaining schedule: @UTA, @LAL, @GSW, IND, @MEM, ATL, @ATL, WAS

  • Highest possible finish: No. 1 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: No. 10 seed

What’s at stake: The No. 4 seed and home-court advantage in the first round.

Record: 41-32 | Net rating: 1.8 (12th)

  • Magic number for No. 5 seed: 9

  • Remaining schedule: ORL, @DET, SAC, @MEM, @BOS, MIA, MIA, @NYK, BKN

  • Highest possible finish: No. 2 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: No. 10 seed

What’s at stake: The No. 5 or 6 seed and a guaranteed playoff berth.

Record: 42-33 | Net rating: 1.7 (13th)

  • Magic number for No. 6 seed: 7

  • Remaining schedule: BOS, @ORL, @BKN, NYK, @CLE, CLE, @MIA

  • Highest possible finish: No. 2 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: No. 10 seed

What’s at stake: The No. 5 or 6 seed and a guaranteed playoff berth.

Record: 41-33 | Net rating: -0.3 (19th)

  • Magic number for No. 7 seed: 8

  • Remaining schedule: @MIA, @WAS, MIN, DET, @SAS, @HOU, @IND, MIL

  • Highest possible finish: No. 3 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: No. 10 seed

What’s at stake: The No. 5 or 6 seed and a guaranteed playoff berth.

Record: 39-34 | Net rating: 0.8 (17th)

  • Magic number for No. 8 seed: 9

  • Remaining schedule: @TOR, PHX, ATL, @DAL, @NOP, DET, MIN, @CHI, @BOS

  • Highest possible finish: No. 3 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: No. 10 seed

What’s at stake: The No. 5 or 6 seed and a guaranteed playoff berth.

Record: 39-35 | Net rating: 2.3 (11th)

  • Magic number for No. 9 seed: Do not control own destiny

  • Remaining schedule: @IND, PHI, BOS, WAS, @TOR, @TOR, @WAS, ATL

  • Highest possible finish: No. 4 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: No. 10 seed

What’s at stake: The No. 5 or 6 seed and a guaranteed playoff berth.

Record: 39-35 | Net rating: 4.7 (6th)

  • Magic number for No. 9 seed: 8

  • Remaining schedule: BOS, @BKN, PHX, IND, @MIN, @BOS, DET, @NYK

  • Highest possible finish: No. 4 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: No. 10 seed

What’s at stake: The No. 5 or 6 seed and a guaranteed playoff berth.


Celtics can clinch a top-four seed and home-court advantage in the first round with a win

Knicks can clinch guaranteed playoff berth with a win


Out West, the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs are bound for the top two seeds, as OKC holds a two-game lead for the league’s No. 1 overall seed.

The Los Angeles Lakers are favorites to capture the West’s No. 3 seed. Beyond them is anyone’s guess.

The Denver Nuggets, Minnesota Timberwolves and Houston Rockets, all but guaranteed the West’s final three guaranteed playoff spots, are separated by one loss. Only one of those teams will earn home-court advantage in the first round.

The four teams for the conference’s play-in tournament field is almost set with the Memphis Grizzlies’ elimination. The Phoenix Suns, Los Angeles Clippers, Portland Trail Blazers and Golden State Warriors appear headed for the Nos. 7-10 seeds.



Record: 58-16 | Net rating: 11.0 (1st)

  • Clinched playoff berth

  • Magic number for No. 1 seed: 7

  • Remaining schedule: NYK, DET, LAL, UTA, @LAL, @LAC, @DEN, PHX

  • Highest possible finish: No. 1 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: No. 2 seed

What’s at stake: The No. 1 seed and home-court advantage throughout the playoffs.

Record: 56-18 | Net rating: 8.3 (2nd)

  • Clinched playoff berth

  • Magic number for No. 1 seed: Do not control own destiny

  • Remaining schedule: CHI, @GSW, @LAC, @DEN, PHI, POR, DAL, DEN

  • Highest possible finish: No. 1 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: No. 2 seed

What’s at stake: The No. 1 seed and home-court advantage throughout the playoffs.



Record: 48-26 | Net rating: 1.5 (14th)

  • Magic number for No. 3 seed: 6

  • Remaining schedule: WAS, CLE, @OKC, @DAL, OKC, @GSW, PHX, UTA

  • Highest possible finish: No. 3 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: No. 7 seed

What’s at stake: The No. 3 seed and home-court advantage in the first round.

Record: 47-28 | Net rating: 4.4 (7th)

  • Magic number for No. 4 seed: 6

  • Remaining schedule: GSW, @UTA, SAS, POR, MEM, OKC, @SAS

  • Highest possible finish: No. 3 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: No. 7 seed

What’s at stake: The No. 4 seed and home-court advantage in the first round.

Record: 45-29 | Net rating: 3.3 (10th)

  • Magic number for No. 5 seed: 8

  • Remaining schedule: @DAL, @DET, @PHI, CHA, @IND, @ORL, @HOU, NOP

  • Highest possible finish: No. 3 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: No. 8 seed

What’s at stake: The No. 4 seed and home-court advantage in the first round.

Record: 44-29 | Net rating: 4.0 (9th)

  • Magic number for No. 6 seed: 6

  • Remaining schedule: @NOP, NYK, MIL, UTA, @GSW, @PHX, PHI, MIN, MIN

  • Highest possible finish: No. 3 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: No. 9 seed

What’s at stake: The No. 4 seed and home-court advantage in the first round.

Record: 41-33 | Net rating: 1.4 (15th)

  • Magic number for No. 7 seed: 6

  • Remaining schedule: @MEM, @ORL, @CHA, @CHI, HOU, DAL, @LAL, @OKC

  • Highest possible finish: No. 3 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: No. 10 seed

What’s at stake: The No. 7 seed and home-court advantage against the No. 8 seed in their opening game of the play-in tournament.

Record: 38-36 | Net rating: 1.3 (16th)

  • Magic number for No. 8 seed: 7

  • Remaining schedule: @MIL, POR, SAS, @SAC, DAL, OKC, @POR, GSW

  • Highest possible finish: No. 5 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: No. 10 seed

What’s at stake: The No. 8 seed and two chances to secure a playoff berth.

Record: 37-38 | Net rating: -1.3 (20th)

  • Magic number for No. 9 seed: 7

  • Remaining schedule: WAS, @LAC, NOP, @DEN, @SAS, LAC, SAC

  • Highest possible finish: No. 6 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: No. 10 seed

What’s at stake: The No. 8 seed and two chances to secure a playoff berth.

Record: 36-38 | Net rating: 0.3 (18th)

  • Magic number for No. 9 seed: 8

  • Remaining schedule: @DEN, SAS, CLE, HOU, SAC, LAL, @SAC, @LAC

  • Highest possible finish: No. 6 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: No. 10 seed

What’s at stake: The No. 8 seed and two chances to secure a playoff berth.


Dylan Cease sets Blue Jays record, debuting with 12 strikeouts in 8-7 walk-off win over Athletics

The Toronto Blue Jays made one of the most eyebrow-raising signings of the offseason, adding pitcher Dylan Cease to a team that took the Los Angeles Dodgers to the 11th inning of Game 7 in the World Series.

Making his first start for Toronto on Saturday, Cease demonstrated why he received a $210 million contract in free agency. The veteran right-hander set a record for a Blue Jays pitching debut with 12 strikeouts in 5 1/3 innings in an 8-7, 11-inning win over the Athletics. He also allowed one run and three hits.

David Price held the previous strikeout record for a Toronto pitcher, whiffing 11 batters in his first appearance for the Blue Jays in 2015 after being acquired from the Detroit Tigers at the trade deadline. Price eventually went 9-1 with a 2.10 ERA in 11 starts, the kind of success that the Blue Jays would love to see from Cease as they pursue another American League pennant.

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However, the Blue Jays’ lineup could only score one run for Cease while he was the pitcher of record, preventing him from earning a win in front of the home crowd at the Rogers Centre.

After walking Nick Kurtz to lead off the sixth inning, Cease gave up an RBI double to Tyler Soderstrom to tie the score at 1-1. Brent Rooker then reached base on a fielder’s choice and Braydon Fisher came in to relieve Cease, who had thrown 90 pitches by that point.

Toronto took a 2-1 lead in the bottom of the inning on an RBI single from Daulton Varsho, but the Athletics rallied for five runs in the top of the seventh. Mason Fluharty relieved Fisher and was hit by two consecutive singles up the middle. The second one caused him to leave the game.

Brendon Little took over for the Blue Jays and struck out Andy Ibáñez before giving up a run-scoring single to Denzel Clarke. Little then walked Kurtz on five pitches before leaving a curveball low, but in the middle of the plate to Shea Langeliers. The Athletics catcher launched the pitch to straight-away center field for a grand slam and 6-2 lead.

Toronto chipped away at its deficit with a Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RBI single in the seventh and run-scoring singles by Jesús Sánchez and Andrés Giménez in the eighth. Tyler Rogers then pitched a 1-2-3 top of the ninth inning, giving the Blue Jays an opportunity to tie the game. Alejandro Kirk then obliged with a solo homer off Michael Kelly, Toronto’s first long ball of the year.

Both teams scored in the 10th. But in the 11th with pinch-runner Nathan Lukes on second base, Athletics reliever Luis Medina intentionally walked Varsho to face Ernie Clement. The Blue Jays second baseman worked the count to a 3-2 count before getting a fastball down the low middle of the zone that he hit to left field, scoring Lukes for Toronto’s second walk-off win in its first two games of the season.

Brewers place Andrew Vaughn on IL, call up top catcher prospect Jeferson Quero

The Milwaukee Brewers are calling up top catcher prospect Jeferson Quero to fill in for Andrew Vaughn, who is going on the injured list with a fractured hamate bone in his left hand. The team officially announced the move before Saturday’s matchup with the Chicago White Sox.

Vaughn injured his hand in the Brewers’ season opener on Thursday and is the second Brewers everyday player to go on the IL early in the season. Jackson Chourio, who fractured his hand during the spring, is expected to miss two to four weeks. Vaughn will likely be sidelined for four to six weeks, MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy reports.

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Quero, 23, was ranked among baseball’s top overall prospects before suffering a torn labrum in 2024. Last season, a hamstring injury suffered in the spring limited him to 69 games. But he returned to post a slash line of .271/.361/.478 with 17 doubles, 11 home runs and 47 RBI in 250 plate appearances at Triple-A.

The catcher came into this season ranked No. 8 among Brewers prospects by MLB.com and fourth by The Athletic.

With William Contreras entrenched at catcher, it’s likely that Quero will be a right-handed bat off the bench with the Brewers. Gary Sánchez, who signed a one-year deal in February, could play more at first base while Jake Bauers gets time in left field during Chourio’s IL stint.

After being acquired from the Chicago White Sox last season, Vaughn split time with Rhys Hoskins at first base before taking over during the second half of the season. He hit .308/.375/.493 with 14 doubles, 9 homers and 46 RBI in 254 PAs.

Michigan and Arizona have shown they’re the 2 best teams in college basketball. It’s just a shame they won’t play for a title

CHICAGO — Even back in November, when the nascent college basketball season was barely a ripple on the national sports radar, Michigan and Arizona were eying each other like boxers in opposite corners, waiting for the bell to ring.

Though their paths did not cross, they were practically mirror images, their dominance made obvious by the wins they were racking up against quality teams — often by big margins. As far back as Thanksgiving week, when Michigan polished off the Players Era tournament with a 40-point win over Gonzaga while Arizona had already banked wins over Florida, UConn and UCLA, it would not have been a hot take to suggest they would be on a collision course for the Final Four.

“There were glimpses of this happening,” Michigan athletic director Warde Manuel said Sunday amid the net-cutting celebration at United Center, where the Wolverines had dominated Tennessee, 95-62. “But there was a long season.”

A long season that will end much as it began: With the two teams who flashed the earliest Final Four potential facing each other in the Final Four.

“We always wanted to play against that team,” Michigan forward Yaxel Lendeborg said. “That’s what everybody goes to college basketball for, to play those blockbuster-type games. They got a bunch of NBA guys. We got a bunch of NBA guys. It’s gonna be a fun matchup, man, and I hope everybody’s ready to play because I am.”

Yaxel Lendeborg and the Michigan Wolverines have won every game this NCAA tournament by more than 20 points. (Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images)
IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect / REUTERS

Is it the de facto national championship game? That’s probably unfair. UConn and Illinois, who will be paired in the other semifinal, are excellent teams.

Should the Final Four be reseeded? Now that’s a good debate topic because it certainly appears that the two best teams — and the two best teams all season long — are going to be playing Saturday night rather than Monday. 

How hard is it to be as good as Michigan and Arizona from start to finish? Well, you saw it Sunday when Duke, the overall No. 1 seed, melted down in the second half against UConn.

College basketball deciding its champion with a single-elimination, six-round tournament has long been the sport’s blessing and curse. It makes the stakes of every game sky high and creates Cinderella storylines out of nowhere. It also means the national champion is sometimes not the best team but rather the team that got hot at the right time and avoided bad luck or injury. The uniqueness of March Madness has made that tradeoff worthwhile. 

But thanks to Michigan and Arizona making it this far, there will be no such caveats this year. 

Even before conference play began, you could have reasonably watched those two teams shred everyone in sight and conclude they were on a level above everyone else. 

This wire-to-wire trend, however, goes against much of what we’ve learned over the decades about college basketball. Sure, there have been a handful of outlier teams that were locked and loaded from the beginning, but coaches have generally looked at the season as a way to prepare and peak for March.

When a team flashes national championship potential so early the way Michigan did — there was a 10-game stretch in November and December when the Wolverines were beating teams by an average of 34.5 points, including some true quality opponents — it’s almost problematic. 

“The most difficult part is that everyone starts getting so much more attention, advice — literally everything they get more of,” Michigan coach Dusty May said. “And it’s difficult not to make it about you because the people you’re talking to are making it about you. There’s just a lot of distracting information, and if you’re not mature and you’re not connected to this group and not willing to be held accountable by the staff and each other, then it’s not going to work. 

“And once it creeps in, it’s almost impossible to weed it out. So our guys never let it in. And trust me, they all had different fires that were ignited.”

Brayden Burries and the Arizona Wildcats haven’t lost since Feb. 14. (Eakin Howard-Imagn Images)
IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect / REUTERS

If you lump this tournament in with last year, where all four No. 1 seeds made it to the Final Four, it seems like we may be moving away from an era of parity in college basketball and toward a cluster of superpowers. Michigan won its four games tournament games by an average of 22.5 points, while Arizona’s margin was 20.5. Neither faced a true second half challenge on their way to winning their regional. 

Tennessee was a top-15 team in the predictive metrics and not some overachieving mid-major, but it was almost comical how overmatched the Vols looked trying to generate decent offense against this Michigan squad. 

“Some teams have a little more room for error than others,” Tennessee coach Rick Barnes said.

In a way, college basketball and college football have switched roles in the NIL era. Whereas there used to be no parity at all in college football because of how stacked the superpowers like Alabama and Georgia used to be, conference commissioners are now talking about expanding the playoff beyond 12 because we might be leaving out viable teams.

Meanwhile, March Madness has played out pretty true-to-form for two straight years. 

It’s hard to know exactly what to make of that. You can point to the transfer portal and the ability for a program like Michigan to go get an established star like the 23-year-old Lendeborg out of UAB, but here’s Arizona with three freshmen in its starting lineup. Perhaps there’s something to the idea that teams like Michigan and Arizona, which play big frontcourt lineups and don’t rely on making a bunch of 3-pointers to win, aren’t as susceptible to being upset. 

Still, college basketball programs are judged by what happens in March. And we have decades of history telling us that it’s extremely hard, and rare, for two teams to be on a collision course all season and actually end up playing each other in the Final Four. 

“This was obviously one of the goals because of the talent we had,” May said. “We have a sign in our locker room — “April Habits” — and from Day 1 we’ve challenged these guys to develop championship-level habits that would allow us to win a Big Ten championship and would also allow us to turn the calendar from March until April. Now we put ourselves in position to do that.”

Even though Michigan and Arizona showed four months ago that they were probably on a level above almost everyone else in college basketball, there was no guarantee they’d actually get to settle it on the floor. So many obstacles to overcome and landmines to avoid. 

But they will finally touch gloves next Saturday in Indianapolis. Let’s get ready to rumble.

Elite 8 winners, losers: UConn comeback, droughts end, Duke chokes again

We have our Final Four.

After four rounds, 64 teams have been sent home and four remain in the hunt for a national championship. Connecticut, Arizona, Michigan and Illinois are en route to Indianapolis, two wins away from winning it all.

Some of the representatives aren’t much of a surprise, as the top-seeded Wildcats and Wolverines have looked like a tier above the rest of the sport, and anything less than a Final Four appearance would have been a disappointment. The Huskies stunned its away back to a familiar place, and Illinois isn’t really a shocker and are far from an underdog after a very successful season, proving worthy of its spot.

The results of the weekend not only impacted the championship race, but the sport as a whole. Here are the winners and losers of the Elite Eight:

Winners

UConn’s comeback

A return to the Final Four didn’t seem possible when Connecticut was down 19 points late in the first half against Duke, but did the Huskies respond.

UConn clawed back in the second half, slowly chipping away at the lead before a 7-0 run put it in striking distance with under four minutes left. The Blue Devils couldn’t stop the momentum and Connecticut pulled out a shocking victory, punctuated by Braylon Mullins’ 3-pointer at the final second. UConn outscored Duke 44-28 in the final 20 minutes for its third trip to the Final Four in four seasons.

It was one of the largest comebacks in NCAA Tournament history, and UConn made Duke the first No. 1 seed to lose a game after being up by at least 15 points at halftime in an ending for the ages.

Big Ten

The Big Ten rolls onto the biggest stage with the conference getting two teams into the Final Four with Michigan and Illinois. It’s the first time the conference has accomplished the feat since 2015 and fourth time since 1999.

The tournament has been a Big Ten showcase after seven of its nine teams won their first round game. It put a record four teams in the Elite Eight, and was guaranteed to get at least one Final Four team with the Illinois-Iowa winner, and could’ve had up to three, but two is still a very successful result.

It’s been the winner of every round so far. Now all that’s left is finishing it on top with a 50% shot at a national championship, the first since 2000. It could be sealed with an all-Big Ten title game, very much possible.

Breaking droughts

The 2026 Final Four is more than two decades in the making for Arizona and Illinois, getting back to the final stage after falling short so many times.

Arizona is in the Final Four for the first time since 2001, a relief on the shoulders of the Wildcats after losing all of its past five Elite Eight appearances. They did it in emphatic fashion with a major second half comeback over Purdue to cruise toward a stress-free finish against the Boilermakers. Illinois was able to put away the surprise run against Iowa to reach the semifinals for the first time since 2005, the last time it was close to winning its first national title.

Two successful programs redeemed years of frustrations, and not only have they finally broken through, but they are viable national championship contenders, with Arizona on the verge of its second title and Illinois on the cusp of its biggest accomplishment yet.

Andrej Stojakovic 

Watch out dad, son can definitely hoop, too. The son of Peja, Andrej Stojakovic came up clutch for Illinois, a catalyst for his team surviving and advancing.

Iowa jumped out to a quick double-digit lead, but Stojakovic came in and helped his team recover quickly and eventually win. He made some clutch shots at the end and most importantly, defended Iowa star Bennett Stirtz down the stretch to prevent any late heroics. Even though Keaton Wagler was the star with 25 points, Stojakovic had 17 points and his plus/minus of +19 was the best on the team, proving how vital he was to his team’s success.

The Elite Eight isn’t the only time Stojakovic has come up big in the tournament, but Illinois may have been cooked if he wasn’t the sparkplug he was against the Hawkeyes. His presence keeps his team’s title hopes alive and well.

Losers

Duke chokes

It’s another stunning March loss for Duke. The top overall seed looked destined for the Final Four after jumping to a 19-point lead against UConn in the first half.

Then came the second half.

The Blue Devils couldn’t stop UConn from rallying at the end, and had the game in its hands in the final seconds, but a shocking turnover turned into a game-winning 3-pointer by the Huskies. UConn outscored Duke 15-5 in the final five minutes. Duke now is the first No. 1 seed in NCAA Tournament history to lose after leading by at least 15 points at halftime, as they were 134-0 in such instances. The 19-point blown lead is tied for the sixth largest in the tournament.

The shocking loss keeps Duke away from winning its first national championship in the Jon Scheyer era, with the last title in 2015. Its the longest the Blue Devils have gone without a championship this century.

SEC

March doesn’t mean more in the SEC as the conference finishes with a dud to follow its historic past season.

It was going to be hard to follow up two teams in the Final Four en route to a national champion, but the SEC didn’t get close to replicating some of that success. It only got one team in the Elite Eight in Tennessee, and it got blown out by Michigan. The SEC will not be represented in the semifinals for the first time since 2023.

To add insult to injury, the conference did not do well against its fellow Power league in the Big Ten. The SEC went 0-5 vs. Big Ten teams in the tournament, which ended up getting two teams to the Final Four. After an amazing showing in 2025, this one has been a forgettable month in the Southeast.

Lower seeds

Make way for the heavyweights. The 2026 Final Four will feature two No. 1 seeds, a No. 2 and a No. 3 seed, another season of no surprise runs to the semifinals.

While it’s no surprise when the favorites at the start of the tournament ended up making it to the final weekend, it’s exactly what happened last season when we had an all-No. 1 group. This marks back-to-back years where the Final Four doesn’t feature a team seeded No. 4 or lower, which hasn’t happened since a three-year streak from 2007-09.

This year’s tournament had upsets and some magical runs, but none of them reached the final stage. Are even really solid teams going to have trouble winning a region, and are true Cinderellas dead?

Tennessee

Another Elite Eight, another exit for Rocky Top. The Volunteers are left searching again for their first Final Four after getting stopped at the doorstep.

Tennessee’s optimism was quickly wiped out early against Michigan, leading to a 33-point rout in one of the largest blowouts in Elite Eight history. While the Vols have nothing to be ashamed about given it was a good run as a No. 6 seed, it’s the third straight season the Vols were eliminated in the regional final.

Rick Barnes has maintained winning in Knoxville, but after coming up short so often, will Tennessee ever get over the hump? 

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Elite 8 winners, losers: UConn, Big 10, Duke headline March Madness ups, downs

Elite 8 winners, losers: UConn comeback, droughts end, Duke chokes again

We have our Final Four.

After four rounds, 64 teams have been sent home and four remain in the hunt for a national championship. Connecticut, Arizona, Michigan and Illinois are en route to Indianapolis, two wins away from winning it all.

Some of the representatives aren’t much of a surprise, as the top-seeded Wildcats and Wolverines have looked like a tier above the rest of the sport, and anything less than a Final Four appearance would have been a disappointment. The Huskies stunned its away back to a familiar place, and Illinois isn’t really a shocker and are far from an underdog after a very successful season, proving worthy of its spot.

The results of the weekend not only impacted the championship race, but the sport as a whole. Here are the winners and losers of the Elite Eight:

Winners

UConn’s comeback

A return to the Final Four didn’t seem possible when Connecticut was down 19 points late in the first half against Duke, but did the Huskies respond.

UConn clawed back in the second half, slowly chipping away at the lead before a 7-0 run put it in striking distance with under four minutes left. The Blue Devils couldn’t stop the momentum and Connecticut pulled out a shocking victory, punctuated by Braylon Mullins’ 3-pointer at the final second. UConn outscored Duke 44-28 in the final 20 minutes for its third trip to the Final Four in four seasons.

It was one of the largest comebacks in NCAA Tournament history, and UConn made Duke the first No. 1 seed to lose a game after being up by at least 15 points at halftime in an ending for the ages.

Big Ten

The Big Ten rolls onto the biggest stage with the conference getting two teams into the Final Four with Michigan and Illinois. It’s the first time the conference has accomplished the feat since 2015 and fourth time since 1999.

The tournament has been a Big Ten showcase after seven of its nine teams won their first round game. It put a record four teams in the Elite Eight, and was guaranteed to get at least one Final Four team with the Illinois-Iowa winner, and could’ve had up to three, but two is still a very successful result.

It’s been the winner of every round so far. Now all that’s left is finishing it on top with a 50% shot at a national championship, the first since 2000. It could be sealed with an all-Big Ten title game, very much possible.

Breaking droughts

The 2026 Final Four is more than two decades in the making for Arizona and Illinois, getting back to the final stage after falling short so many times.

Arizona is in the Final Four for the first time since 2001, a relief on the shoulders of the Wildcats after losing all of its past five Elite Eight appearances. They did it in emphatic fashion with a major second half comeback over Purdue to cruise toward a stress-free finish against the Boilermakers. Illinois was able to put away the surprise run against Iowa to reach the semifinals for the first time since 2005, the last time it was close to winning its first national title.

Two successful programs redeemed years of frustrations, and not only have they finally broken through, but they are viable national championship contenders, with Arizona on the verge of its second title and Illinois on the cusp of its biggest accomplishment yet.

Andrej Stojakovic 

Watch out dad, son can definitely hoop, too. The son of Peja, Andrej Stojakovic came up clutch for Illinois, a catalyst for his team surviving and advancing.

Iowa jumped out to a quick double-digit lead, but Stojakovic came in and helped his team recover quickly and eventually win. He made some clutch shots at the end and most importantly, defended Iowa star Bennett Stirtz down the stretch to prevent any late heroics. Even though Keaton Wagler was the star with 25 points, Stojakovic had 17 points and his plus/minus of +19 was the best on the team, proving how vital he was to his team’s success.

The Elite Eight isn’t the only time Stojakovic has come up big in the tournament, but Illinois may have been cooked if he wasn’t the sparkplug he was against the Hawkeyes. His presence keeps his team’s title hopes alive and well.

Losers

Duke chokes

It’s another stunning March loss for Duke. The top overall seed looked destined for the Final Four after jumping to a 19-point lead against UConn in the first half.

Then came the second half.

The Blue Devils couldn’t stop UConn from rallying at the end, and had the game in its hands in the final seconds, but a shocking turnover turned into a game-winning 3-pointer by the Huskies. UConn outscored Duke 15-5 in the final five minutes. Duke now is the first No. 1 seed in NCAA Tournament history to lose after leading by at least 15 points at halftime, as they were 134-0 in such instances. The 19-point blown lead is tied for the sixth largest in the tournament.

The shocking loss keeps Duke away from winning its first national championship in the Jon Scheyer era, with the last title in 2015. Its the longest the Blue Devils have gone without a championship this century.

SEC

March doesn’t mean more in the SEC as the conference finishes with a dud to follow its historic past season.

It was going to be hard to follow up two teams in the Final Four en route to a national champion, but the SEC didn’t get close to replicating some of that success. It only got one team in the Elite Eight in Tennessee, and it got blown out by Michigan. The SEC will not be represented in the semifinals for the first time since 2023.

To add insult to injury, the conference did not do well against its fellow Power league in the Big Ten. The SEC went 0-5 vs. Big Ten teams in the tournament, which ended up getting two teams to the Final Four. After an amazing showing in 2025, this one has been a forgettable month in the Southeast.

Lower seeds

Make way for the heavyweights. The 2026 Final Four will feature two No. 1 seeds, a No. 2 and a No. 3 seed, another season of no surprise runs to the semifinals.

While it’s no surprise when the favorites at the start of the tournament ended up making it to the final weekend, it’s exactly what happened last season when we had an all-No. 1 group. This marks back-to-back years where the Final Four doesn’t feature a team seeded No. 4 or lower, which hasn’t happened since a three-year streak from 2007-09.

This year’s tournament had upsets and some magical runs, but none of them reached the final stage. Are even really solid teams going to have trouble winning a region, and are true Cinderellas dead?

Tennessee

Another Elite Eight, another exit for Rocky Top. The Volunteers are left searching again for their first Final Four after getting stopped at the doorstep.

Tennessee’s optimism was quickly wiped out early against Michigan, leading to a 33-point rout in one of the largest blowouts in Elite Eight history. While the Vols have nothing to be ashamed about given it was a good run as a No. 6 seed, it’s the third straight season the Vols were eliminated in the regional final.

Rick Barnes has maintained winning in Knoxville, but after coming up short so often, will Tennessee ever get over the hump? 

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Elite 8 winners, losers: UConn, Big 10, Duke headline March Madness ups, downs

Ranking Duke’s worst NCAA tournament losses since its last title, including that collapse vs. UConn

Duke’s March Madness run ended on Sunday at the Elite Eight, and what an ending it was. Despite the best efforts of Cameron Boozer, the Blue Devils blew a 15-point halftime lead, coughed up the ball in the final seconds and watched Braylon Mullins boot them out of the NCAA tournament.

It was a painful loss, but it has company in Duke’s oeuvre of mortifying March Madness exits. This is a very proud program that has seen some of the best NBA prospects of the last decade come through its doors, with no title to show for it since they won it all in 2015 under Mike Krzyzewski. 

You can’t do that without some games that make you want to crawl into a hole in the ground.

Here’s a list of the Blue Devils’ worst NCAA tournament losses in the past 11 title-less years. It’s worth noting the Blue Devils didn’t make the tournament in 2021 when they were 13-11 and had no tournament to play in for 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Three of its losses (2016, 2018, 2023) were also as lower seeds and therefore not included.

Leading scorers: Jayson Tatum, Luke Kennard

Tatum, Kennard and Grayson Allen have gone on to enjoy successful NBA careers, but their time together in college was less than the sum of its parts. 

Duke was ranked No. 1 in the preseason AP Poll with Allen as a National Player of the Year contender and Tatum and Harry Giles looming as the program’s next great freshmen. The best Duke teams under Mike Krzyzewski combined NBA lottery-bound freshmen and veteran leaders, and this one definitely fit the bill.

It was curious, then, that this team didn’t really get going until Kennard, a five-star recruit in his sophomore year, stepped up as the team’s first option on offense and became an All-American. That reworking seemed to save Duke’s season, until it fell apart against a South Carolina team ready for everything they had. 

Duke just couldn’t stop the Gamecocks’ Sindarius Thornwell in the second half, and a season’s worth of dysfunction all came floating back up.

Leading scorers: Kyle Filipowski, Jared McCain

From an NBA standpoint, this is the least-talented Duke team on this list. The No. 4-seeded Blue Devils looked good, not great in their second year under Scheyer, but knocked off No. 1 Houston in the Sweet 16 to set up what looked like an extremely favorable matchup to reach the Final Four.

NC State only reached the tournament because of an unprecedented ACC tournament run, which included a win over Duke. A repeat win for the overachieving Wolfpack was a tall order, right?

Right?

Duke has had better teams lose in the tournament, but there have been only a few times when a loss like that hit so close to home, against an in-state foe they don’t even call their biggest rival. 

Leading scorers: Cameron Boozer, Isaiah Evans

The No. 1 overall seed was at least courteous enough to give us some warning this March Madness run might not go as hoped. They needed comebacks to beat both No. 16 seed Siena and No. 5 seed St. John’s, with the former becoming the first No. 16 seed to hold a double-digit halftime lead over a No. 1 seed.

But Duke didn’t a comeback to beat UConn. It just needed to hold on. Duke led by as many as 19 points in the first half, but Dan Hurley’s group just kept chipping away. Even then, though, Duke just had to hold onto the ball with 10 seconds left, instead of… this.

It was a mortifying collapse. But also not Duke’s most mortifying collapse of the past two years.

Leading scorers: Zion Williamson, R.J. Barrett

Williamson’s NBA career has been rockier than expected, but it cannot be forgotten how much a sensation he was in his only year with Duke, or how he was only their third-best freshman on some recruiting rankings.

Williamson, Barrett and Cam Reddish gave Duke the top three recruits in the country and they absolutely lived up to the hype (in aggregate). That team felt almost inevitable, then No. 2 seed Michigan State showed it was no slouch either. In one of Tom Izzo’s best coaching jobs, the Spartans withstood some inhuman stuff from Williamson to beat the tournament’s top overall seed.

By the standard of missed opportunities, this team might top any on this list. At least last year’s team of Cooper Flagg and Co., whom we could describe as similarly talented, made the Final Four.

Leading scorers: Cooper Flagg, Kon Knueppel

The best that can be said about las year’s loss is that it was a quality matchup, a fellow No. 1 seed, and it required a very questionable call by the officials.

The rest, well, let’s recall how Duke led by as much as 14 in that game, the fifth-largest blown lead in Final Four history, and by nine with less than three minutes left. Flagg appeared to deliver multiple daggers, but Houston just kept sticking around while the Blue Devils offense went absolute-zero cold, with only one field goal in the final 10 minutes.

Duke entered the Final Four as the odds-on favorite to win it all and just needed a semblance of an offense from a team with three projected lottery picks, one of them perhaps the best American prospect since Anthony Davis or LeBron James, to reach the championship game against Florida. 

Instead, it got what would be an all-time worst loss for most programs. But not Duke.

Leading scorers: Paolo Banchero, Wendell Moore Jr.

Let’s be real: Duke could have blown a 50-point lead on Sunday and it would not have been No. 1 on this list.

There is no redeeming facing your biggest rival — the biggest rivalry in all of college basketball — for the first time in the NCAA tournament, in the Final Four, in your legendary coach’s final game, and losing to a No. 8 seed on a complete YOLO run, with Caleb Love providing the dagger.

It does not matter what Duke does from here on out and how many rings Jon Scheyer or a successor end up winning. For the rest of our lives, any Duke fan publicly reminiscing about the great Coach K will have to look over their shoulder, just to make sure there isn’t a smirking UNC fan about to remind them how it all ended.

There’s no beating that.

Suzuki lifts streaking Canadiens to 3-1 win over Hurricanes

RALEIGH, N.C. (AP) — Nick Suzuki scored two goals and had an assist to lead the Montreal Canadiens to a 3-1 win over the Carolina Hurricanes on Sunday.

Suzuki fueled a three-goal second period for the Canadiens, who have won five straight and won all three regular-season games against the Metropolitan Division-leading Hurricanes.

Cole Caufield added a goal and assist for Montreal and goalie Jakub Dobes made 34 saves in his third win of the season over the Hurricanes.

Andrei Svechnikov scored for the Hurricanes, and Frederik Andersen stopped 15 shots.

Suzuki tied the game 1-1 by beating a diving Sean Walker to the net at 6:18 in the second period.

After a Dobes’ glove save on Jordan Staal with 3:13 left in the period, Caufield made it 2-1 after Suzuki drew two defenders to the left circle and gave Caufield a clean look at Andersen.

Montreal scored on the power play after a tripping penalty was called on Eric Robinson with 15 seconds left in the period.

Suzuki leads the Canadiens with 91 points. He has five goals and 12 assists in the past 10 games as Montreal vies for position in a tight playoff race in the Atlantic Division.

Svechnikov gave the Hurricanes a 1-0 lead with a power-play goal at 8:37 in the first period. It was the eighth power-play goal in 16 opportunities for the Hurricanes but they went 0 for 2 the rest of the game.

The Hurricanes have won four of their last six game with both losses to Montreal.

Up next

Canadiens: At Tampa Bay on Tuesday.

Hurricanes: Visit Columbus on Tuesday.

——

AP NHL: https://apnews.com/hub/nhl

Suzuki lifts streaking Canadiens to 3-1 win over Hurricanes

RALEIGH, N.C. (AP) — Nick Suzuki scored two goals and had an assist to lead the Montreal Canadiens to a 3-1 win over the Carolina Hurricanes on Sunday.

Suzuki fueled a three-goal second period for the Canadiens, who have won five straight and won all three regular-season games against the Metropolitan Division-leading Hurricanes.

Cole Caufield added a goal and assist for Montreal and goalie Jakub Dobes made 34 saves in his third win of the season over the Hurricanes.

Andrei Svechnikov scored for the Hurricanes, and Frederik Andersen stopped 15 shots.

Suzuki tied the game 1-1 by beating a diving Sean Walker to the net at 6:18 in the second period.

After a Dobes’ glove save on Jordan Staal with 3:13 left in the period, Caufield made it 2-1 after Suzuki drew two defenders to the left circle and gave Caufield a clean look at Andersen.

Montreal scored on the power play after a tripping penalty was called on Eric Robinson with 15 seconds left in the period.

Suzuki leads the Canadiens with 91 points. He has five goals and 12 assists in the past 10 games as Montreal vies for position in a tight playoff race in the Atlantic Division.

Svechnikov gave the Hurricanes a 1-0 lead with a power-play goal at 8:37 in the first period. It was the eighth power-play goal in 16 opportunities for the Hurricanes but they went 0 for 2 the rest of the game.

The Hurricanes have won four of their last six game with both losses to Montreal.

Up next

Canadiens: At Tampa Bay on Tuesday.

Hurricanes: Visit Columbus on Tuesday.

——

AP NHL: https://apnews.com/hub/nhl

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