March 2026
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2026 Fantasy Baseball: Which standout 2025 stats can be replicated and which can be ignored?
The beauty of baseball involves extensive data and advanced stats available for us as fans and fantasy baseball managers. The downside, if we can call it that, involves over 200 players being drafted in most Yahoo leagues, with some deeper formats drafting 450 or more. If you’re like me and love diving into players, it takes time. Instead of digging into every fantasy-relevant player on all teams, we want to take the time to find outliers.
Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Baseball league for the 2026 MLB season]
Sometimes these outliers can win or lose us weeks (in head-to-head formats) or win or lose us leagues. Breakout players and busts come from situations where the luck factors and skills either aligned in a positive or negative way. One of the biggest questions we ask heading into the following season is whether a player can replicate their success or we should ignore their struggles from the previous year.
We’ll touch on luck factors for hitters and pitchers to keep in mind, plus examine several hitters and pitchers; the goal for the player-level examination is to provide a path for how we might decide whether a player can replicate their success or if we can ignore the struggles from the previous season.
During the season, we should be able to follow a similar path, though the sample might be smaller, which makes the decisions more difficult.
Be Mindful of Hitter Luck Factors
BABIP or Hit Rate
As we mentioned in the introduction to the advanced stats article, we want to examine a player’s data and compare it to their career norms instead of the league average. The same goes for skills, advanced metrics and luck factors. One luck factor is batting average on balls in play (BABIP) or hit rate. Often, we can find hitters have outlier-level (high or low) batting averages related to their high or low BABIP. A player’s BABIP qualifies as a luck factor, meaning there will be variance, but sometimes it isn’t as controllable.
However, we have some hitters who run higher BABIPs because they put the ball in play often, especially with fewer home runs since BABIP removes homers and strikeouts. Speed becomes a factor because faster players may have better batting averages when they put the ball into play. Examples would be José Caballero, Chandler Simpson, Oneil Cruz and Trea Turner, all of whom have high stolen base totals while running higher BABIPs because they’re fast athletes.
Since BABIP doesn’t include home runs, hitters who have higher flyball rates tend to have lower BABIP since flyballs that aren’t home runs tend to be outs. Think about Cal Raleigh, Kyle Schwarber or other elite power hitters who put the ball in the air often; they tend to have lower batting averages and BABIPs. Sure, they could have a higher batting average like Nick Kurtz, but many might be skeptical of a repeat based on the plate discipline and hitter profile.
Home Run to Flyball Rate (HR/F)
Another luck factor is the home run to flyball rate, which is the percentage of home runs per flyball. Like BABIP, check how a hitter fares in HR/F based on their career averages instead of the league norm. If hitters post higher exit velocities, their median projection for HR/F should be around 15-20%. In the near-elite to elite power range, we find hitters post HR/F at 18% or significantly above 20%. However, hitters with a 20% HR/F tend to be the 75th to 90th percentile outcomes.
Often, breakout performances come from players who combine luck and skill. For example, Aaron Judge posted a 30% HR/F over the past four seasons, with over 50 home runs in three out of four seasons. That coincides with Judge’s elite and outlier power metrics. Besides the power skills and exit velocities, the consistent launch angles to hit flyballs matter. Think about some hitters that hit the ball hard, but most often on the ground, like Christian Yelich, Cruz, James Wood and Yandy Díaz. That said, we’ll look at hitters who could see their HR/F rate regress in 2026.
Hitter Skills
The skills for hitters involve plate discipline, power and speed. Plate discipline includes chase, swing, and contact rates. It’s somewhat more difficult to make more contact or improve plate discipline for hitters, though sometimes we find slight variations. That’s notable because hitters can hit the ball hard via bat speed training and strength programs. An example would be Brice Turang, who started hitting the ball harder with better bat speeds, separating himself from the likes of Steven Kwan.
We can typically trust that a hitter can sustain the power skills, especially if they’ve shown it over a decent sample. The idea that it’s unsustainable for a hitter to repeat involves situations where there are mediocre or below-average power skills, yet a hitter’s outcomes (home runs) were higher than expected. Of course, there are instances where the home park factors into the hitter’s outcomes like in Cincinnati, Colorado, Seattle and New York (Yankees). If a hitter typically hit the ball hard, and it fell in a recent season or parts of the season, we could speculate on an injury, assuming it was reported. That’s especially true for back, oblique, lower body, and hand injuries since all components have a key role in swinging hard.
It helps to have hitters who have above-average speed and athleticism when we’re looking at stolen bases. A minor-league track record for stolen bases can give us a slight signal, though the team contexts matter more. It’s probably a bit harder to track which teams tend to run, though we can figure that out via stolen base opportunities. We’ve seen some managers, like Dan Wilson and Dave Martinez, have their players run more often on the base paths, especially with the new stolen base rules in recent seasons. However, it’s not a perfect correlation because the players on the team matter. As we mentioned with injuries, we find hitters stealing less often if there was an injury, especially a lower-body one.
We’ll focus on four hitters who can replicate their previous season or decide whether we should ignore them.
Can These Hitters Replicate the Previous Season or Should We Ignore?
Can Jonathan Aranda Replicate the High Batting Average?
When a hitter like Jonathan Aranda posts a .409 BABIP, we should expect regression. Aranda was fortunate in 2025 from a batting-average standpoint, especially since he hit a ton more line drives after being groundball-heavy. Line drives can be fluky to rely on, though he showed a strong hit tool in the minors and decent plate discipline with a league-average contact rate (77.1%) in 2025. Aranda doesn’t have the speed or athleticism to maintain high BABIPs, so expect Aranda’s to regress in 2026, closer to .250 or .260 like the projections suggest, instead of something over .300.
Will Nick Kurtz Replicate 2025?
There’s no denying Nick Kurtz’s power, given his 77.2 mph bat speed and 72.6% fast swing rate. Kurtz struggles to make contact (64%), yet we would take his .278 xBA since he crushes the ball. When hitters like Kurtz have elite power skills, they can sustain higher home run rates (HR/F). The 90th percentile HR/F for hitters with his type of power was around 25%, so Kurtz lives in the elite range of outcomes. It’s weird to see Kurtz have a high BABIP (.364) given his high flyball (43%) approach. It helps that Kurtz plays his home games in Sutter Health Park again in Sacramento because it tends to boost hitting, with 40 expected home runs in their home park.
We could see his BABIP regress, meaning his batting average will shift somewhere between his xBA and around .260, as the projections suggest. Since Kurtz struggles to make contact, we might expect his batting averages to be below .250. However, it’s worth noting that Kurtz used a patient approach with a 22.2% chase rate, nearly six points below the league average. There was a similar trend with Kurtz’s swing rates, hinting at him being patient and selective.
Kurtz can replicate 2025, though it will come over a large sample of plate appearances, meaning the per-plate appearance data likely won’t sustain. When hitters struggle to make contact, we want them to punish the ball with their bat speed and exit velocities. That’s what Kurtz does. Kurtz’s luck factors should regress slightly, making him a high-risk, high-reward hitter given the skills and price.
Will Oneil Cruz’s Batting Average Bounce Back?
When on the clock, sometimes Oneil Cruz will tease you in the draft after going 21/22 with a .259 BA in 2024, which dipped down to 20/38 and a .200 BA in 2025. Like Kurtz, Cruz struggles to make contact with his massive 6-foot-7 frame. On the surface, Cruz’s luck factors impacted the batting average, evidenced by a .347 BABIP in 2024, down to a .262 BABIP in 2025.
Interestingly, Cruz maintained his contact rates yet seemed to attempt for a more patient approach. That’s evident in Cruz’s chase, swing and zone swing rates dropping by 3-5 percentage points in 2025, compared to 2024. Groundballs have been an issue, with a 47-48% groundball rate. However, Cruz crushes flyballs and line drives when he elevates the ball, ranking third in average exit velocity on flyballs and line drives (EV on FB/LD) at 99.4 mph behind Shohei Ohtani (100.4 mph) and Kyle Schwarber (99.5 mph). That’s nearly 1 mph harder than Cruz’s EV on FB/LD in 2024 (98.5), ranking fifth.
Cruz’s batting average should bounce back since he hits the ball hard while possessing elite speed (93rd percentile) and athleticism. However, Cruz’s batting average might be closer to his career xBA (.233) than his 2025 batting average. For what it’s worth, Cruz is currently hitting a clean 1.000 with two home runs in three at-bats in the World Baseball Classic.
Will George Springer Replicate 2025?
George Springer focused on swinging faster last season, with a 73.7 mph bat speed and a 40.2% fast swing rate. Furthermore, Springer boasted a career-best barrel rate per plate appearance (10.8%), over three percentage points higher than his career norm (7.2%). He went from mediocre power skills from 2022 to 2024 to ballooning to above-average in 2025. We should expect home run regression because Springer’s 32 home runs likely overperformed based on expectations. It’s a matter of regression to what, though, because Springer’s home run projections have been just under 25 home runs for most.
Springer’s home run projection feels like a reasonable outcome, with the stolen bases a sneaky part of his profile. There’s still above-average speed and athleticism for Springer, though he remains efficient with a 94% stolen base conversion rate over the past two seasons with a decent 11-12% stolen base opportunity percentage.
Bake in some home run regression, but 23-25 home runs and 12-15 stolen bases remain a probable outcome to somewhat replicate the 2025 season.
Can These Starting Pitchers Replicate Last Season or Should We Ignore?
There have been mixed thoughts on whether pitchers can control BABIP and hits. Like a hitter’s BABIP, pitchers can be fortunate if they strand runners at a high rate, compared to their career averages. However, high-end pitchers will strand runners because of their strikeout skills. We heard similar conversations about whether pitchers can control the contact quality. However, there’s enough research to show us that pitchers can generate whiffs and weak contact based on the pitch movement profiles and locations.
Generally speaking, pitches with plenty of downward movement should generate more whiffs and ones with more horizontal fade and sweep can elicit weak contact. Skilled pitches can prevent hits and hard contact. Typically, these skilled pitchers elicit swings and misses, making them priority targets in drafts. We’ll examine four pitchers and their stats from 2025 to decide whether they can replicate their previous season or whether we should ignore them.
Can Cade Horton Replicate 8th-Best ERA (2.53)?
Cade Horton posted elite ratios in his rookie season. However, Horton might have one of the bigger gaps between his ERA and xERA, suggesting to be cautious on him replicating his 2025 season. Horton’s skills were mediocre, not mind-blowing, evidenced by a 13% strikeout minus walk rate (K-BB%), 34% ball rate and 11.5% swinging-strike rate. In the minor leagues, we saw Horton post 13-15% swinging strike rates, so there could be more whiffs in the future.
That’s especially true when we consider Horton nearly had two pitches with a 20% swinging-strike rate. Horton’s slider (19%) and changeup (21.5%) led his arsenal from a swinging-strike rate, theoretically helping him against either side of the plate. The sweeping slider possesses above-average downward movement, but the changeup lacks an above-average movement profile.
Thankfully, Horton’s sweeper (.209 wOBA, .219 xwOBA) performed well against right-handed hitters, with the four-seam allowing a wOBA under .300 (.255), yet a .374 xwOBA. Besides the sweeper and four-seamer, no other pitches fared well with a wOBA under .300 against right-handed hitters. We saw similar outcomes against left-handed hitters, with his changeup allowing a .163 wOBA (.237 xwOBA) and the curveball giving up a .231 wOBA (.233 xwOBA).
The data points to being cautious on Horton replicating his rookie season.
Will Yoshinobu Yamamoto provide ace-like outcomes again?
After shoulder injuries in 2024, Yoshinobu Yamamoto pitched like an ace, with a 2.49 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 20% K-BB% and a 13% swinging-strike rate across 173 innings. He continued that dominance into the playoffs, throwing an additional 37 innings, with a 1.45 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 18.8% K-BB% and a 3.05 Skill Interactive ERA (SIERA). There have been some with concerns about Yamamoto’s workload of over 200 innings when combining the regular and postseason, especially since many of the Dodgers’ starting pitchers have injury concerns.
Yamamoto’s 3.04 xERA suggests some regression, but the skills point toward a near-elite starting pitcher. He maintained his pitch mix against left-handed hitters, but made a slight adjustment to right-handed hitters by lowering his four-seam usage by nearly 10 percentage points (32.1%). That coincided with Yamamoto throwing more sinkers (14.5%) and cutters (11.1%) against right-handed hitters in 2025. Both the sinker and cutter were thrown 8-9 percentage points higher in 2025 against righties.
There’s a good chance Abbott might give up more home runs, especially since there’s a small margin for error when pitchers like him rely on their command. Abbott averaged a 104 Location+, with all five pitches having a Location+ at 103 or higher, aligning with the command we see in the heatmaps. The slider is the only pitch with an above-average swinging-strike rate (18.4%), with his changeup (12.9%) and cutter (13.9%) being the other two offerings missing bats at a double-digit rate.
Be cautious with Abbott, though 2024 might be a more reasonable outcome (3.72 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) while giving up more home runs. Abbott’s draft cost bakes in the regression, so we don’t need to overcount it for 2026. We shouldn’t ignore the success because Abbott profiles as a command-over-stuff starting pitcher.
Should or Shouldn’t We Ignore Shane Baz’s Rough Patch in 2025?
Shane Baz was recovering from Tommy John surgery in 2024 and pitched well with a 3.06 ERA and 1.06 WHIP across 79 innings. There was optimism for Baz heading into 2025, but the outcomes didn’t align with expectations. Baz threw 166 innings, with awful results (4.87 ERA, 1.33 WHIP), yet Baz’s 3.84 xERA suggests poor luck. That’s notable because Baz’s skills sustained from 2024 into 2025, evidenced by a 34% ball rate and 12% swinging-strike rate.
Besides Baz’s BABIP and strand rate regression in an unfavorable way, he gave up more home runs, with a 15% HR/F in 2025, up from 9% in 2024. It’s worth noting that Baz played in George Steinbrenner Field in 2025, which ranked sixth in home run park factor, tying them with the Athletics’ home park. Baz pitched in a hitter-friendly home park in 2025, which looks similar in 2026 while playing in Camden Yards (5th-best home run park factor).
Baz added a cutter in 2025, which looked like a harder version of his slider with gyro-slide movement. For context, Baz’s cutter had very little horizontal movement, yet lost 10 inches of downward movement (25.6 inches) compared to the slider (35.6 inches). Baz’s cutter hasn’t been dominant against right-handed hitters, allowing a .325 wOBA (.283 xwOBA) in 2025 as his third-most used pitch (14.3%) behind the four-seam (46.3%) and knuckle curve (32.3%).
Baz’s slider used to be his best pitch for whiffs with a 21-23% swinging-strike rate in 2021 and 2022. However, those were smaller samples and Baz made adjustments to the arsenal after recovering from Tommy John surgery in 2024. Baz tends to have some reverse splits, with poorer results against right-handed hitters than left-handed hitters. That’s evident in his knuckle curve being the primary quality offering against righties (.268 wOBA, .270 xwOBA). However, Baz has multiple quality pitches against left-handed hitters, including the changeup (.270 wOBA, .245 xwOBA) and knuckle curve (.255 wOBA, .214 xwOBA).
Baz will be a stuff (107 Stuff+) over command (98 Location+) starting pitcher. That suggests we should chase pitchers like Baz, as a low-risk, high-upside option. Don’t ignore Baz in drafts based on the poor results from 2025.
2026 Fantasy Baseball Park Factors: Ranking the best (and worst) MLB stadiums by hitting boosts
Throughout the season, fantasy baseball writers will often refer to certain ballparks as hitter-friendly or pitcher-friendly. While we use those broad definitions to save space and maintain the flow of a paragraph, those terms do not always give the full picture of a ballpark. Additionally, some writers use the terms incorrectly, as they cling to impressions of ballparks that are outdated or were never accurate.
[Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Baseball league for the 2026 MLB season]
Here are the highlights of the 2025 Statcast ballpark data, which should be useful when setting draft rankings and lineups throughout the coming season:
|
Best Overall Park Factors (2025) |
Worst Overall Park Factors (2025) |
|
Coors Field (COL) 115 |
T-Mobile Park (SEA) 91 |
|
Sutter Health Park (ATH) 108 |
Globe Life Field (TEX) 91 |
|
Comerica Park (DET) 105 |
Progressive Field (CLE) 95 |
|
Dodger Stadium (LAD) 104 |
Petco Park (SD) 95 |
|
Oriole Park at Camden Yards (BAL) 103 |
PNC Park (PIT) 96 |
|
Fenway Park (BOS) 103 |
Kauffman Stadium (KC) 97 |
|
Rogers Centre (TOR) 103 |
loanDepot park (MIA) 97 |
|
|
Daikin Park (HOU) 97 |
|
|
Busch Stadium (STL) 97 |
|
Best HR Parks (2025) |
Worst HR Parks (2025) |
|
Dodger Stadium (LAD) 137 |
PNC Park (PIT) 66 |
|
Oriole Park at Camden Yards (BAL) 121 |
Busch Stadium (STL) 77 |
|
Rogers Centre (TOR) 118 |
Globe Life Field (TEX) 80 |
|
Citizens Bank Park (PHI) 117 |
Kauffman Stadium (KC) 83 |
|
Comerica Park (DET) 114 |
loanDepot park (MIA) 84 |
|
Sutter Health Park (ATH) 112 |
Oracle Park (SF) 84 |
|
|
Fenway Park (BOS) 84 |
Hitter-friendly parks
Coors Field
The hitter’s paradise in Colorado remains the top ballpark by a mile. It enhances home runs and batting average while reducing strikeouts. Most pitchers need to be benched in Colorado. Coors could help Rockies’ offseason additions Willi Castro and Jake McCarthy have their best seasons.
Sutter Health Park
Minor League parks often play well for hitters, which makes it unsurprising that the Athletics temporary home is a bandbox that maximizes power numbers and overall scoring. The time at Sutter Health is the best thing that could have happened to an organization that is flush with emerging offensive stars, such as Nick Kurtz, Jacob Wilson and Shea Langeliers.
Comerica Park
This one is surprising, as Comerica is usually more of a neutral park. In 2025, it was a top-five venue for both homers and runs. Hitters are known to have problems in Detroit during the cold weather in the spring, but the park played very well for hitters during the warmer months. Personally, I’m going to need to see more proof in 2026 before I value Comerica as a true hitter-friendly venue. It’s something to monitor as the season progresses.
Dodger Stadium
Many fans are so busy attributing the Dodgers’ high-scoring offense to their terrific talent that they overlook the contributions of a home ballpark that has become the best in baseball for producing home runs. The homer-happy nature of Dodger Stadium is another reason to want Kyle Tucker on your 2026 roster.
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Camden Yards ranked second in terms of inducing home runs, which led to a fifth-place finish in overall park factor. The changes to the outfield wall had significant effects, which is good news for the newest Orioles, such as Taylor Ward and Pete Alonso.
Pitcher-friendly parks
T-Mobile Park
T-Mobile is annually among the best venues for hurlers, as it not only suppresses run scoring but also accentuates strikeouts. Partly thanks to a historic season from Cal Raleigh, the Mariners ranked ninth in runs scored (766) last season. The club last scored more than 768 runs in 2007, which means that even with a talented group, their offense may be hampered by their park and take a small dip this year.
Globe Life Park
Globe Life has quickly emerged as one of baseball’s toughest parks on hitters. Corey Seager has managed to thrive anyway, but players such as Marcus Semien, Joc Pederson, Jake Burger, Adolis García and Jonah Heim have all had disappointing fantasy seasons as members of the Rangers in recent years. Fantasy managers shouldn’t get too carried away with projections for Texas hitters, including newcomer Brandon Nimmo.
Progressive Field
The combination of Progressive Field and Cleveland’s mediocre lineup should result in the Guardians finishing near the bottom of the league in runs scored for a second straight year. It’s another reason that I suggest being wary of investing too much in José Ramírez, who is supremely talented but needs to overcome some limiting factors this year.
Petco Park
Petco has long been known as a pitcher’s park. There isn’t much to glean from this selection from a fantasy perspective, as the Padres didn’t add many fantasy-relevant players in the offseason.
PNC Park
The Bucs’ home park plays well for doubles and triples, but in 2025, it was the toughest park in baseball to hit a home run. In fact, its HR park factor of 66 was far lower than the 29th total (77, Busch Stadium). The Pirates added a trio of power hitters in the offseason, Brandon Lowe, Marcell Ozuna and Ryan O’Hearn, who may be adversely affected by their new venue.
Myths, dispelled
— American Family Field in Milwaukee is widely regarded as a hitter’s park but leaned slightly to pitchers last year.
— Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati continues to accentuate home runs but was an average park for overall offense. The same thing can be said about Yankee Stadium.
— Oracle Park is regarded as one of the best venues for pitchers but was in the middle of the pack last season. It remains a tough park to hit home runs, though.
Handedness splits
|
Best Overall Park Factor – RHB (2025) |
Worst Overall Park Factor RHB – 2025 |
|
Coors Field (COL) 115 |
Globe Life Field (TEX) 90 |
|
Sutter Health Park (ATH) 108 |
T-Mobile Park (SEA) 91 |
|
Chase Field (ARI) 106 |
Rate Field (CWS) 94 |
|
Rogers Centre (TOR) 105 |
Petco Park (SD) 95 |
|
Dodger Stadium (LAD) 105 |
Wrigley Field (CHC) 95 |
|
|
Citi Field NYM (95) |
|
Best Overall Park Factor – LHB (2025) |
Worst Overall Park Factor LHB – 2025 |
|
Coors Field (COL) 115 |
T-Mobile Park (SEA) 92 |
|
Sutter Health Park (OAK) 108 |
Progressive Field (CLE) 92 |
|
Oriole Park at Camden Yards (BAL) 108 |
Globe Life Field (TEX) 93 |
|
Comerica Park (DET) 106 |
PNC Park (PIT) 94 |
|
Fenway Park (BOS) 105 |
Petco Park (SD) 95 |
|
Citi Field (NYM) 105 |
|
— Citi Field was one of the most favorable parks for left-handed hitters but near the bottom of the list for righty batters. Unfortunately, three of the Mets most prominent newcomers, Bo Bichette, Marcus Semien and Luis Robert Jr., bat from the right side.
— Fenway Park is slightly favorable for right-handed hitters but one of the best parks in baseball for lefty batters, thanks to the pesky pole. Unfortunately, the newest members of Boston’s lineup, Willson Contreras and Caleb Durbin, bat from the right side.
— Chase Field and Rogers Centre had some similarities last year, as both parks were favorable for right-handed hitters and neutral for lefties. Fortunately, Toronto newcomer Kazuma Okamoto and D-backs addition Nolan Arenado bat from the right side.
What if Kyler Murray went back to baseball?
As the first day of the NFL’s free agent frenzy ended with former Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray still in the wind, a debate-show topic flickered to life: What if Kyler went back to baseball? Sure, he’ll almost surely sign with the Vikings, Jets or some other QB-needy organization, but … what if? Could Murray pull an Involuntary Jordan and jump from his chosen sport to his second one?
Murray established himself as a legitimate two-sport prospect coming out of high school. After one full season of baseball at Oklahoma, the Athletics thought highly enough of his prospects to select him ninth overall in the 2018 MLB Draft.
“He had power, speed, bat speed, defensive ability that gave you the glimpse of what he could be,” one longtime baseball scout told Yahoo Sports. “If it all came together, the impact — he had All-Star-type of potential.”
In the 51 games of his 2018 season at Oklahoma, Murray averaged .296 with 10 home runs, a .398 on-base percentage and a .556 slugging percentage. Scouts projected him as a center fielder, with the speed to chase down balls and the arm to whip the ball back into the infield on a rope. (Baseball bonus: opposing ballplayers can’t intercept relay throws.)
Murray’s athleticism was on a big-league track in college, and even now, he could play himself into professional-level performance within a season or so. The exception — and it’s a big one — is contact. Hitting the baseball is the toughest act in sports, requiring a consistent repetition that Murray simply didn’t have because he bounced back and forth between the gridiron and the diamond.
“Being able to hit the ball is the most important thing from the scouting side, and the most uncertain with him,” the scout said. “That’s the hardest thing to project. He was just behind on exposure, pure at-bats, things of that nature.”
Still, the scout believes that had Murray dedicated himself to baseball, he could have figured out hitting in relatively short order.
“Somebody that’s able to play NFL quarterback is probably able to figure out a lot of things,” the scout said. “Hitting a baseball is a very challenging thing, but I also assume reading a defense is challenging.”
Scouts knew from the jump that Murray favored football over baseball, not least because football offered more immediate financial rewards. The Athletics gave him a signing bonus of $4.66 million … but scouts estimate he would have had to work his way upward for around six years, with no guarantees, to sign a massive baseball contract. The Cardinals, by contrast, signed Murray to a fully guaranteed $35 million rookie deal. Not much of a choice there.
When the A’s signed Murray to that initial deal, Billy Beane, then the A’s VP of baseball operations, termed him “one of the most dynamic athletes that we’ve selected since I’ve been here.” High praise from the guy who inspired “Moneyball.”
Even though Murray returned most of the signing bonus, the A’s still hold his rights, and the door to the clubhouse remains open. “Kyler is an elite NFL quarterback and I’m sure there are plenty of opportunities for him to continue his football career,” Athletics GM David Forst told MLB.com last week. “That said, he and his baseball representatives know that we’re always open to him exploring a return to baseball with the A’s if that time ever comes.”
Murray isn’t the only NFL standout who had a real future in baseball if he’d wanted it. Scouts to this day wonder how high the Eagles’ A.J. Brown could have risen; some projected him to have even more talent at the plate than Murray. Brown signed with the Padres out of high school and worked out with the team while in college at Ole Miss, but obviously opted to stick with football.
Giants quarterback Jameis Winston had an even clearer path to the pros. As a closer for Florida State, Winston threw heat that could have had him in the majors in a hurry. The Rangers selected him in the 2012 MLB Draft, but Winston opted not to sign so that he could continue pitching for the Seminoles … and, along the way, win both a Heisman and a national championship, too.
For old-school fans of two-sport stars like Bo Jackson and Deion Sanders, the challenges that face their potential heirs are a bit disappointing. Each sport requires such dedication, such specialization and such a time commitment that two-sport dabbling is effectively impossible now. But, hey, if the Jets end up being Murray’s only option … never say never, right?
Standout performers at the WBC: Luis Arraez, Ozzie Albies, Junior Caminero among those making a statement in pool play
The World Baseball Classic is in full swing, and this past weekend of pool play provided memorable highlights and emotional vignettes that captured what international baseball is all about. The stakes will grow only higher as teams get eliminated and the knockout stage begins, but the first few days of competition have given us a ton to chew on.
Here’s a sampling of the biggest swings from the WBC so far and what they mean for the main characters involved, both for the remainder of this tournament and for the upcoming MLB season.
MLB stars lead the way for Team Japan
It took just three games for Samurai Japan to qualify for the knockout stage, earning wins against Chinese Taipei, Korea and Australia to clinch a spot in the quarterfinals on its quest for a fourth WBC title. There are 13 players tournament-wide who have hit multiple home runs in pool play, and three of them are atop Japan’s lineup: Shohei Ohtani, Seiya Suzuki and Masataka Yoshida, all with two apiece.
After dominating Chinese Taipei without much trouble, the next two contests were more challenging than many anticipated for Japan, but its biggest stars delivered the big swings when the team needed them — none bigger than Yoshida’s two-run, go-ahead blast in the bottom of the seventh against Australia:
MASATAKA YOSHIDA GIVES TEAM JAPAN THE LEAD! #WORLDBASEBALLCLASSICpic.twitter.com/j6EM0RTwWc
— World Baseball Classic (@WBCBaseball) March 8, 2026
A huge contributor to Japan’s WBC title run three years ago, Yoshida’s major-league career has unfolded in bizarre fashion since then due to myriad factors, including his uneven performance, the volatile Red Sox roster construction and injuries. But for Japan, Yoshida is an unquestioned superstar, dating to his NPB days and especially on the international stage. A shoulder injury limited his availability and impact for much of last season, but he was sneaky stellar in September and during Boston’s brief postseason appearance.
While his defensive limitations and bloated contract make him a tough fit on Boston’s roster, his bat still belongs at the highest level in some form, and it’ll be fascinating to see how his career progresses from here — as part of Japan’s WBC title defense efforts and then back in the majors.
Luis Arraez multi-homer WBC game AGAIN?!
Speaking of that small group of players with multiple homers, how about Luis Arraez? The newest San Francisco Giants infielder is showing out on the international stage again, going yard twice Saturday in Venezuela’s 11-3 win over Israel.
Luis Arraez CONNECTS for Team Venezuela 😤 #WorldBaseballClassicpic.twitter.com/RaL2YDBLf2
— World Baseball Classic (@WBCBaseball) March 8, 2026
Known more for his batting average than his power, Arraez is the first player ever with multiple multi-homer games in the WBC. (His first surprise slugging surge came in 2023, when he homered twice in Venezuela’s heartbreaking loss to Team USA in the quarterfinals.) That he is the first to achieve this homer-related feat is all the more remarkable considering he has just one multi-homer game in his entire major-league career. That was Sept. 15, 2023, as a member of the Miami Marlins and also at loanDepot Park, the site of his WBC heroics.
LUIS ARRAEZ AGAIN 😤
He has three hits and FIVE RBI! pic.twitter.com/sy8e1b77GO
— World Baseball Classic (@WBCBaseball) March 8, 2026
Arraez joined his national team this spring after a fascinating trip through free agency that culminated in a one-year, $12 million deal with San Francisco, indicating industry-wide skepticism that the three-time batting champion has a broad enough skill set to warrant a more lucrative, multi-year contract.
Now he’ll have the opportunity to reestablish his value in the new-look Giants lineup, with the bat and also with the glove as the expected every-day second baseman. Before that, Arraez promises to remain a central figure in Venezuela’s pursuit of its first WBC title, notably batting third in a lineup stacked with star power.
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Darell Hernaiz walks it off for Puerto Rico
One of the biggest storylines entering this year’s Classic was the disappointment over Francisco Lindor and Carlos Correa being unable to participate due to insurance issues, a particular letdown with Puerto Rico serving as the host for Pool A play. With that discouraging cloud looming over the island, it was fantastic to see the passionate home crowd in San Juan treated to two terrific performances from Puerto Rico out of the gate, even without two of its biggest stars.
First came a 5-0 shutout of Colombia that began with four scoreless innings from Seth Lugo and ended with closer Edwin Díaz entering to his iconic trumpets and slamming the door with three strikeouts. Then on Saturday, a nail-biter against Panama ended with a Darell Hernaiz walk-off solo home run in the bottom of the 10th:
IT’S GONE!
PUERTO RICO WINS!
DARELL HERNAIZ, WALK-OFF HOME RUN! pic.twitter.com/L2kIDmzi5N— World Baseball Classic (@WBCBaseball) March 8, 2026
Hernaiz was a good candidate to be on Puerto Rico’s roster regardless of Lindor’s and Correa’s absences. But the fact that the player starting at shortstop only because Lindor couldn’t play was the one to deliver such a big swing was a refreshing bit of positive baseball karma for a Puerto Rican team that certainly deserves it. And for Hernaiz, a 24-year-old still working to establish himself in the majors with the A’s, a swing like that could instill a healthy dose of confidence entering the regular season — once his run as a surprisingly important cog in Puerto Rico’s lineup comes to an end.
Absolutely love Darell Hernaiz’s reaction to Francisco Lindor’s excited FaceTime after Hernaiz’s walk-off homer
Baseball is the BEST pic.twitter.com/NfuBPpsdz9
— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) March 9, 2026
Ozzie Albies makes history
Remarkably, Hernaiz’s walk-off blast wasn’t even the first one of the day, as earlier Saturday, Ozzie Albies delivered the first walk-off home run in WBC history to help the Netherlands take down Nicaragua in a captivatingly close contest.
OZZIE ALBIES!
A #WORLDBASEBALLCLASSIC WALK-OFF HOMER FOR TEAM NETHERLANDS 🇳🇱 pic.twitter.com/T2HRyL233M
— World Baseball Classic (@WBCBaseball) March 7, 2026
Albies’ humongous hack on a first-pitch fastball from Nicaragua reliever Angel Obando vaulted the Netherlands from a 3-1 deficit to a 4-3 triumph with two outs in the bottom of the ninth, marking an emotional victory for that Dutch squad and a devastating defeat for a Nicaragua team seeking its first WBC win. The Netherlands’ chances of advancing out of Pool D remain slim, but Albies’ big moment was an encouraging sign for him entering a pivotal 2026 with the Braves, for both player and club.
Atlanta has already endured a rough spring training, with elbow injuries to Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep followed by a 162-game PED suspension for Jurickson Profar (which also rendered him unavailable for the Netherlands, a double-whammy for Albies as a teammate). Albies could be a key ingredient to getting Atlanta back on track in 2026, and he has plenty to prove coming off a poor campaign in which he posted a career-worst 87 wRC+.
The Braves still picked up his $7 million option for this season, but he’ll need to bounce back if the Atlanta lineup is going to be anywhere near as formidable as it hopes to be. As the longest-tenured player on the roster, Albies is at a crossroads in his career, and how he performs this season will likely determine whether his time in Atlanta finally nears its end or he remains a main character for the Braves moving forward.
Junior Caminero is way more than just a water boy
It was last June when Rays slugger Junior Caminero sat down with journalist Yancen Pujols and announced his plea to manager Albert Pujols to be included on the Dominican Republic roster for the World Baseball Classic, even if just as the water boy. Caminero recognized then that several more accomplished third basemen were ahead of him on the Dominican depth chart, but he was passionate about finding a way to be included in the tournament.
JUNIOR CAMINERO 3-RUN BLAST 😤 pic.twitter.com/iO6L3mBOU4
— World Baseball Classic (@WBCBaseball) March 8, 2026
Combine a gigantic second half with the Rays with the absence of guys such as José Ramírez and Rafael Devers on the Dominican roster, and Caminero now finds himself in the heart of Team D.R.’s laughably loaded lineup, doing a whole lot more than fetching water for his more famous teammates. The 22-year-old has already torched two jaw-dropping homers: a go-ahead, two-run blast to center field against Nicaragua and a laser-beam, three-run shot to left field against the Netherlands that put the game out of reach.
IT’S GONE 😤
JUNIOR CAMINERO IS AN ELECTRIC FACTORY ⚡️ pic.twitter.com/SCOYIV7yg4
— World Baseball Classic (@WBCBaseball) March 7, 2026
It’s possible that Caminero’s performance in this tournament will be viewed as his coming out party as a superstar in his own right, a fitting encore to his runner-up Home Run Derby performance last summer. His electric, right-handed swing should be a staple in our game for years, and how he continues to grow as a hitter will be fascinating to watch. Caminero’s biggest test this season will be the transition back to the less-hitter-friendly Tropicana Field, as his production last year was markedly better at George M. Steinbrenner Field (.954 OPS) than on the road (.743 OPS). It’d be foolish to doubt a player of Caminero’s caliber, but it’s something to monitor.
KBO stars step up for Korea
Joining Japan in advancing from Pool C is Korea, whose dramatic victory over Australia on Monday ensured it would hold the tiebreaker in a three-way knot with Australia and Chinese Taipei. Breaking through to the final eight was an enormous achievement for Korea, which finished third and runner-up in the first two editions of the WBC (2006 and 2009) but failed to advance out of the group stage in the three tournaments since. Korea’s roster is captained by San Francisco Giants outfielder Jung-Hoo Lee and bolstered by American-born big leaguers with Korean heritage such as Jahmai Jones, Shay Whitcomb and Dane Dunning.
In this tournament, Lee has looked terrific, both at the plate and in right field, where he is preparing to play after primarily manning center for the Giants the past two seasons. But the real breakout stars of pool play were two still playing in KBO: 22-year-old third baseman Do Yeong Kim and 25-year-old first baseman Bo Gyeong Moon. Kim was the 2024 KBO MVP with the Kia Tigers but dealt with injuries that limited him to just 30 games in 2025. He’s clearly healthy now, delivering several impressive swings at some key moments in pool play that showcased both his talent and his poise:
Kia Tigers 3B Do-yeong Kim was the 2024 KBO MVP as a 20-year-old (38 HR, 40 SB, 1.067 OPS) but hamstring injuries limited him to just 30 games in ’25
he homered vs. Hanshin & Orix in pre-WBC NPB friendlies and just hit this HUGE go-ahead HR for Koreapic.twitter.com/aHU0pUsZ6k
— Céspedes Family BBQ (@CespedesBBQ) March 8, 2026
Moon has been a rock-solid bat for the LG Twins the past several seasons, but his showing in this tournament has been otherworldly, starting with a grand slam against Czechia and followed by another big homer against Australia. Moon’s seven hits and 11 RBI (!) are both tops among all players in pool play.
Bo Gyeong Moon CRUSHES one!
Team Korea is on the board early 🇰🇷 #WorldBaseballClassicpic.twitter.com/2RXPLnwUwP
— World Baseball Classic (@WBCBaseball) March 9, 2026
Now off to Miami for the quarterfinals, Korea will play whichever team finishes first in Pool D — likely the winner of Wednesday’s epic clash between Venezuela and the Dominican Republic. If Korea is to pull off what would be a significant upset over either of those foes, chances are Kim or Moon will need to provide another spark or two to make it happen.
Thunder’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ties Wilt Chamberlain for most consecutive 20-point games, hits game-winner to beat Nuggets
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander keeps making history.
The Oklahoma City Thunder star recorded his 126th consecutive game with at least 20 points and tied Wilt Chamberlain for the obscure NBA record Monday night at the Paycom Center.
Gilgeous-Alexander achieved the feat with a 3-pointer in the third quarter of OKC’s 129-126 win over the Denver Nuggets to give him 22 points .
SGA. 126 STRAIGHT 20+ POINT GAMES.
TIES WILT CHAMBERLAIN FOR THE LONGEST STREAK IN NBA HISTORY. pic.twitter.com/SgyGxv6qm3
— NBA (@NBA) March 10, 2026
But it was what Gilgeous-Alexander did at the end of the game that really turned heads.
The two teams were locked in a battle in the fourth quarter, and it looked like Gilgeous-Alexander had sealed the win with a 3-pointer from the top of the floor with just 13.6 seconds left in the game. That put the Thunder up by four.
But Nikola Jokić answered with a 3-pointer of his own, and Jamal Murray sank a single free throw after he drew a foul from Jaylin Williams in the process of Jokic’s bucket to complete the rare two-man, four-point play. Just like that, the game was tied up.
JOKIĆ DRILLS THE 3 AND THE NUGGETS HAVE A CHANCE AT A 4-POINT PLAY! pic.twitter.com/goQMIr4SKo
— NBA (@NBA) March 10, 2026
But Gilgeous-Alexander, seemingly unbothered, expertly worked past Spencer Jones on the wing and drained the step-back game-winner. Jones could only watch, shoulders slumped as the 3 fell.
SGA CALLS GAME.
STEPBACK 3 TO WIN A THRILLER VS. DENVER 🚨 pic.twitter.com/sIrFsI3Ft0
— NBA (@NBA) March 10, 2026
Gilgeous-Alexander came just shy of recording what would have been his third career triple-double on Monday night while pushing the Thunder to the win. He had 35 points, 15 assists and nine rebounds after shooting 14-of-21 from the field.
Williams added 29 points and 12 rebounds for the Thunder, who now sit at an NBA-best 51-15 on the season. Ajay Mitchell added 24 points off the bench, too.
Jokić had a triple-double for the Nuggets with 32 points, 14 rebounds and 13 assists. Murray finished with 21 points and eight rebounds, and Tim Hardaway Jr. added with 28 points on eight 3-pointers off the bench. The Nuggets now sit at 39-26 after the loss, their second straight.
Gilgeous-Alexander’s streak dates to Oct. 30, 2024, when he scored 18 points in a win over the San Antonio Spurs. Since then, the point guard has been consistently churning out high double-digit performances, occasionally dipping down toward 20 but never falling below it.
He entered Monday’s game averaging 31.6 points per game across the first 53 games of the 2025-26 season. Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged more than 30 points per game across his last four seasons in Oklahoma City and led the league in scoring during his 2024-25 MVP campaign, with 32.7 points per game.
Chamberlain set the 20-point games record across the 1961-1963 seasons, while playing for the now-Golden State Warriors. During that stretch, the Warriors moved from Philadelphia to San Francisco, with Chamberlain continuing to put up 20-plus points per game in that time.
The Thunder play the Boston Celtics at home on Thursday, meaning Gilgeous-Alexander only has to wait a few days to try to pass Chamberlain’s mark.
But regardless, the Thunder keep winning. With six straight in the books now, they look very much like a team ready to defend their championship during the final stretch of the regular season.