To borrow a line from Bob Dylan, in the AL West, the times they are a-changin’. After winning four straight division titles and seven over eight seasons, the Astros regressed last summer and surrendered divisional supremacy to the Mariners. Seattle had long possessed the pitching staff to emerge from this group, and a magical season from Cal Raleigh keyed an improved lineup that finally gave the team the offense it needed. The Mariners’ magical run got them one win away from playing in the World Series for the first time in franchise history.
Looking ahead, this is still Seattle’s division to lose. The Astros retooled over the winter but didn’t necessarily improve. The Rangers took steps to repair a disappointing offense and will hope their surprisingly effective pitching staff can exceed expectations for a second straight year. The Angels are far off the pace, and while the Athletics are trending in the right direction, they still have a long way to go.
Read more: ]
Best-case scenario for 2026: Although they’re underdogs, the Rangers have a path to the postseason. It starts with pitching, where deGrom needs to log another 30-start season, Eovaldi must maintain his step forward from last year, and Gore needs to rediscover the form that led to a 3.02 ERA in the first half of 2025. Leiter is still young enough to take a step forward, and Kumar Rocker hasn’t come close to reaching his ceiling. If everything breaks right, the Rangers could have an outstanding rotation. Offensively, the key will be for several 2025 disappointments to have bounce-back seasons. That list includes Pederson, Burger, Carter and Josh Jung. There’s also a chance that Wyatt Langford goes from good to great, and getting a healthy season from Seager would make a big difference. If most of those things happen, Texas will find itself in the race for the top spot in the AL West.
Worst-case scenario: In all likelihood, there’s too much uncertainty for this roster to break through. Due to age and injury history, deGrom and Eovaldi are major regression candidates. And the bullpen is unlikely to pull off another magic act in which they turn a group of no-name relievers into an effective group. The most likely scenario is for what was a league-leading pitching staff to fall back closer to the pack. It’s also wishful thinking to expect more than half of the lineup to fare better than last season. A more likely scenario is that a couple of hitters improve, which gives Texas a respectable lineup but nothing more than that.
Make-or-break player: Nathan Eovaldi. The Rangers lack rotation depth and will be in big trouble if either Eovaldi or deGrom spends time on the IL. Eovaldi is arguably the bigger injury risk of the two, given that he finished last season with a rotator cuff strain. There’s also uncertainty with Eovaldi in terms of his per-inning effectiveness. The right-hander was an effective starter for many years before taking his game to another level in 2025. While he’s unlikely to repeat his 1.73 ERA, achieving a mark in the low 3.00s will make him a terrific co-star alongside deGrom.
Season prediction: The Rangers seem set to fall a few games short of a postseason berth. Winning the AL West is unlikely, as the Mariners have a deeper roster, especially on the mound. And the wild-card spots will be hotly contested by the Astros and several AL East teams. Texas will likely stay in the postseason race until late September but ultimately fall short due to a lack of depth in the bullpen and lineup.
Athletics
Projected record: 79-83, 25.3% odds to make the playoffs, 9.1% odds to win the division
What happened last season? After a lengthy rebuild and an unceremonious departure from Oakland, things started to look up for the Athletics. The club posted its highest win total (76) since 2021, which was primarily the result of an offense that finished 12th in runs scored. And the A’s improved throughout the season, with a 41-34 record after July 1. Nick Kurtz debuted in late April and instantly became one of baseball’s most feared sluggers en route to being named AL Rookie of the Year. His 1.002 OPS would’ve ranked third in baseball if he had enough plate appearances to qualify. Fellow rookie Jacob Wilson was just as dominant in the batting average department, as his .311 mark placed third among qualified hitters. There were also productive veterans, as Brent Rooker had another excellent season, Tyler Soderstrom showed notable improvement, and Shea Langeliers was one of baseball’s top hitters in the second half.
What happened in the offseason? As a team that is still rebuilding and has not yet moved into its permanent home, the Athletics were predictably quiet over the winter. They managed to swing one notable trade when they picked up Jeff McNeil from the Mets. McNeil will play second base and should be helped by the switch to a hitter-friendly home park. The rest of the roster mostly remained status quo. JJ Bleday was the most notable departure, as he was designated for assignment before joining the Reds.
Best-case scenario for 2026: Although reaching the postseason is a stretch, there’s a scenario in which this team slugs its way into September contention. The offense is still scratching the surface of its immense potential, especially with an offense-inducing home park on its side. Kurtz and Wilson should each appear in 25-30 more games than last year. Langeliers will be the second coming of Cal Raleigh if he can build on his second-half performance, and Lawrence Butler still has the breakout potential that he failed to deliver on last year. The team’s Achilles’ heel is the pitching staff, but getting 30 respectable starts from Luis Severino, Jeffrey Springs, Jacob Lopez and Luis Morales would give the offense a chance to win more games.
Worst-case scenario: While it’s a near-certainty that the 2026 Athletics will score runs, a pitching staff that finished 27th in ERA last year will likely be their undoing. Severino has been vocal about the fact that he isn’t happy with his current situation, and Lopez and Springs are the only members of the rotation who had more than a few effective starts last year. Even avid baseball fans would be hard-pressed to name anyone in the A’s bullpen, which makes sense given the lack of track record for most members. While the organization has a few pitching prospects who will debut this year, none has the skill set to make an impact right away. Aside from blind optimism, there’s no reason to expect significant improvement from this group.
Make-or-break player: Jacob Lopez. For the Athletics to reach the next level, someone needs to emerge as a true ace in the rotation. While there are no obvious candidates on the roster, Lopez has the best shot. The left-hander has significant swing-and-miss skills (11.0 K/9 rate in 2025) and in seven of his 17 starts last year, Lopez threw at least six innings while giving up two or fewer earned runs. He can be prone to homers, and his control skills fluctuated wildly from one start to the next last year. But the potential is there, with consistency being the key next step.
Season prediction: The Athletics are going to be the most exciting non-contender in baseball in 2026. Their offense will crack the top 10 in runs scored, making the team a regular headline-grabber. But the pitching staff will be their undoing, as the club probably isn’t ready to climb much higher than 25th in runs allowed. In a best-case scenario, the Athletics rise to third in the AL West and give their front office reasons to invest in pitching staff additions next winter.
Los Angeles Angels
Projected record: 73-89, 5.3% odds to make the playoffs, 1.6% odds to win the division
What happened last season? The Angels endured another disappointing season, finishing last in the AL West for a second straight year and running their streak of losing records to 10 campaigns. A poor start (9-16 in April) and finish (8-18 in September) doomed their season, but they were only two games under .500 when they took the field on July 30. The offense flashed plenty of power, finishing fourth in the majors in homers, as Jo Adell and Taylor Ward hit more than 35 each, and Mike Trout and Zach Neto each went deep 26 times. But any offensive success was more than offset by a pitching staff that ranked 28th in ERA. Injuries were not the issue, as five pitchers made at least 23 starts. None logged an ERA under 3.99 or a WHIP below 1.28. Last winter, the front office made moves designed to produce a winning team, which made it even more embarrassing for the Angels to finish behind the rebuilding A’s for a second straight year.
What happened in the offseason? As per usual, the Angels made several offseason moves but might not have improved their roster. They started with a significant trade, shipping Ward to Baltimore for starting pitcher Grayson Rodriguez, who missed all of 2025 due to an elbow injury. It was a risky move to get a discounted pitcher who was once expected to be an ace and is still just 26 years old. Their second trade was a smaller one, acquiring Vaughn Grissom from the Red Sox for outfielder Isaiah Jackson. Like Rodriguez, Grissom was once expected to be an impact player; he could become the Angels’ starting second baseman. In January, the Angels replaced Ward by acquiring Josh Lowe from the Rays. Lowe flashed an exciting skill set when he hit .292 with 20 homers and 32 steals in 2023, but he experienced a steep decline while dealing with injuries the past two years. The Angels’ only notable free-agent signings were veteran reliever Kirby Yates, who was one of baseball’s best closers two years ago before struggling with injuries and ineffectiveness in his lone season with the Dodgers, and Yoan Moncada, who posted a solid .783 OPS in 84 games with the Angels last year.
Best-case scenario for 2026: You really have to squint to find a path to the postseason, but here goes nothing. The lineup could be better than the one that ranked 25th in runs scored last year, if Lowe effectively replaces Ward and Grissom hits for average. After all, Adell and Neto are on the upswing, and Trout is a generational talent who could have some kind of late-career resurgence. Catcher Logan O’Hoppe is also much better than he showed when he logged a .629 OPS last season. For the pitching staff to make significant progress, Rodriguez and Yates will have to pitch as well as they did in 2024. They’ll also get Robert Stephenson back from injury, and he could combine with Yates and Drew Pomeranz to form an effective late-inning trio.
Worst-case scenario: This could be the year the rebuilding Athletics pull away from the Angels. Unless Lowe turns around a two-year slump, the lineup will really miss Ward. As things stand, the bottom-four hitters in the regular lineup either posted an OPS below .700 last season or didn’t appear in the majors at all. And if the gamble on Rodriguez doesn’t pay off, the Angels’ pitching staff will be much worse than the lineup. There’s no one to eat innings behind Yusei Kikuchi and José Soriano, who are subpar staff leaders. And the bullpen is depending on Yates in his age-39 season, Pomeranz in his age-37 campaign and Stephenson, who threw 10 innings last year. The Angels could post the worst ERA in the American League.
Make-or-break player: Grayson Rodriguez. It would be hard to give this title to anyone other than the 26-year-old, who was tabbed one of baseball’s best prospects in 2022. He fared well in his initial two seasons with the Orioles and was ascending toward ace status when he logged a 3.59 FIP and a 10.0 K/9 rate in his 2024 sophomore campaign. Then injuries caused him to miss all of 2025. If Rodriguez is healthy, the Angels will finally have a leader for their staff. But it’s an ominous sign that a Baltimore team that was looking for starting pitching this offseason chose to trade away one of the most talented arms on the roster. Make no mistake: The acquisition of Rodriguez was a huge gamble for an Angels organization that lacked the prospect capital to trade for a skilled, healthy starter.
Season prediction: In 2026, the Angels will finally succumb to the need for a full rebuild. They have tried to put Band-Aids on their problems for several years, all while wasting Trout’s prime years and watching his body slowly break down. This will be the year they finally give up and trade multiple veterans for younger players. There are some pieces in place for the future; Neto, Adell, Nolan Schanuel and Rodriguez are all under 27 and have considerable skills. The Angels will get off to a slow start, and if they’re smart, they’ll follow the lead of the 2025 Twins and trade away everything that isn’t nailed to the floor at the deadline, which will finally start them on the road toward sustainable success. The Angels haven’t reached the postseason since 2014, which makes it obvious that their current course isn’t working.