The 2026 MLB season is almost here and that means you’re likely prepping for your fantasy baseball draft. One of the best ways to prepare is to do as many mock drafts as possible. Of course, sometimes it’s tough to find an accurate representation of your league settings by using the public mock draft lobby.

Not to fear! If you’re a Yahoo Fantasy+ subscriber, you have access to the Instant Mock Draft tool, allowing you to practice your draft in seconds. You can test different strategies, pick from various draft slots and experiment with roster construction as many times as you want, anytime, instantly. Now is a great time to subscribe to Yahoo Fantasy+, so you can use the wealth of tools for your draft prep

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In this series, we’re going to be using the Instant Mock Draft tool to pick from each of the 12 slots in a 12-team fantasy baseball league. We’re of course beginning our series with the No. 1 overall pick. Who will it be? Aaron Judge or Shohei Ohtani? Let’s get after it.

Note: We’re using Yahoo’s default points league settings for these mock drafts.

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Full Roster

C: Shea Langeliers, Athletics
1B: Alec Burleson, Cardinals
2B: Brice Turang, Brewers
SS: Francisco Lindor, Mets
3B: Noelvi Marte, Reds
OF: Aaron Judge, Yankees
OF: Jackson Merrill, Padres
OF: Luis Robert, Mets
UTIL: Colson Montgomery, White Sox
UTIL: Jacob Wilson, Athletics
SP: Cristopher Sánchez, Phillies
SP: Jacob deGrom, Rangers
RP: David Bednar, Yankees
RP: Raisel Iglesias, Braves
P: Kyle Bradish, Orioles
P: Trevor Rogers, Orioles
P: Shane McClanahan, Rays
P: Ryan Weathers, Yankees
Bench: Dylan Crews, Nationals
Bench: Austin Wells, Yankees
Bench: Jac Caglianone, Royals
Bench: Abner Uribe, Brewers
Bench: Andrew Painter, Phillies

Roster Analysis

Can’t go wrong at the top: I went with Judge over the Dodgers’ slugger but I don’t really think you can go wrong with either pick with the No. 1 overall choice — it’s that close. I’m a Yankees fan (yeah, yeah, whatever), so that factored in. It’s never bad to have your team’s best player on your fantasy squad, especially when it comes to Judge. I think the Yankees’ star has a slightly higher ceiling and I wonder if L.A. decides to rest Ohtani a bit more late in the season with the playoffs top of mind.

Roster building blocks: We took a balanced approach after my initial pick. Lindor is on track to play on Opening Day despite the hamate bone surgery. To me, he’s in a great offensive environment and you could argue he should be going in the first/early second round. I’ll take that value. I like the idea of having an anchor starting pitcher and Sánchez is in his prime and is on a Phillies squad that should compete for the NL East title again.

Balancing risk vs. reward: We added another top-end ace in deGrom to pair with Sanchez. The two-time Cy Young winner appears back on track after a resurgent 2025. There’s always injury risk, especially with a pitcher who will turn 38 this season. But I’m fine taking that risk if deGrom ends up in the Cy Young conversation again. Langeliers was a reach but I wanted to make sure I grabbed a catcher in Scott Pianowski’s top tier. The position is pretty thin and Langeliers may be the best-hitting catcher behind Cal Raleigh.

Waiting on closers: Points-league scoring seems to devalue relief pitchers and closers in general, so I felt OK waiting at the position. We grabbed Yankees closer David Bednar, since we can expect him to get plenty of save opportunities so long as he keeps the job. Raisel Iglesias was my other closer add. If the Braves stay healthy and bounce back, he should get plenty of work.

Team building challenges: The corner infield spots caused me a bit of trouble with the positions thinner as the draft went on. The Cardinals could be pretty bad this season but there’s a lot to like about Burleson entering his age-27 season. He really improved last season and could have finished with 20+ HRs and 80+ RBI with an OPS over .800 had he not missed some time.

Shifting to upside: We took some shots on some sleeper pitchers, including Ryan Weathers, Shane McClanahan and Andrew Painter. Yahoo analyst Corbin Young wrote about Weathers in his top breakout candidates at SP for 2026. Again, the Yankees bias is real for me but Weathers feels like a great low-risk, high-reward type of pick late in drafts. Painter, a once top prospect, should get a chance to showcase his stuff at the next level. He’s still just 22 years old despite logging over 200 minor-league innings.

We wrapped things up with Nationals OF Dylan Crews, who was listed as a potential breakout for analyst Fred Zinkie. Similar to Painter, Crews was among the top prospects in baseball last season but hasn’t put it all together yet. If he’s an everyday player, Crews has 20+ HR upside.

Takeaways with drafting No. 1: I love drafting from this slot in all fantasy formats (and it isn’t just because you get to pick one of the top players). Having the back-to-back picks at the turn allows you to plan ahead more, not worrying so much about ADP and where you’re selecting. You don’t have to fret as much about other managers sniping picks, which is also a plus.

When you’re able to add Judge (or Ohtani), you can put more of an emphasis on pitching and making some risk-reward picks on offense. Let Judge or Ohtani, plus your second pick, anchor your offense. Then, you can go out and grab your guys, your favorite sleepers, regardless of ADP and ranking.

The word sleeper has become a nebulous term in the fantasy world, with various definitions depending on who you ask. But we all can agree that if you hit on a sleeper at the fantasy baseball draft table, you’ll be happy. Let’s assume the most general of sleeper definitions — a reasonably inexpensive commodity who has a decent chance to outkick his ADP — and move alone from there. 

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Here are some sleepers I like from the outfield in 2026. 

OF Daylen Lile, Nationals (214.9 ADP) 

The market is giving you a giveaway draft price here; please take advantage. Lile wasn’t overmatched in his first run through the majors, slashing .299/.437/.498 with nine homers and eight steals over 91 games. And the steal count is going to rise — he possesses a speed score in the 92nd percentile, and he had a silly 11 triples in 91 games last year. Some say the triple is a dying play in modern baseball — Lile is single-handedly bringing it back. His stolen-base success rate will rise as he gains experience. 

The Nationals were patient with Lile at the front of his debut, but he was hitting cleanup at the end of last season. This year, he’s slotted in the No. 3 spot, after James Wood and CJ Abrams and ahead of Dylan Crews. I probably can’t sell you on the bottom of the Washington lineup, but the top needs little defense. 

OF Ramon Laureano, Padres (215.1 ADP)

Laureano was probably the most underrated outfielder in fantasy baseball last year — he was the No. 29 outfielder in 5×5 value — and I initially had him as a double-digit value on my tiered rankings. I’m a little concerned the Nick Castellanos signing could create a logjam in the San Diego outfield, and ultimately, I decided to be prudent with Laureano’s ranking, mindful that he’s in his 30s and has never logged 500 at-bats in a season. Still, he’s an above-average hitter, and hopefully the Padres will give him some leash. 

Nobody picked outside the top 200 is a sure thing, but Laureano has already shown upside to be excited about. 

OF Kerry Carpenter, Tigers (205.2 ADP) 

Carpenter doesn’t take many walks and he’s never hit left-handed pitching much — the Tigers have generally platooned him — so at first glance, you’re thinking he’s a capped-ceiling player. But Carpenter showed some progress in limited work against lefties last year (three homers, .400 slugging) and Detroit is considering giving him more exposure to southpaws this season. 

So you have two paths to make your money on Carpenter this year. If he approaches 500 at-bats, 30-plus homers and 85-plus RBI are reachable targets. And if the platoon sticks, at least he can focus on what he normally does: mashing right-handed pitching. Carpenter is also in the prime part of his career arc, stepping into his age-28 season. Carpenter is probably a better pick for leagues that allow for regular lineup tinkering, but no matter your format, consider his positives. 

OF Wilyer Abreu, Red Sox (210.3 ADP) 

I’m not going to cheat and call Abreu a breakout player, because we’ve seen growth the last two years. If he doesn’t get hurt in the second half of 2025, Abreu likely gets home with 30 homers and 100 RBI. His .256 career average isn’t a problem, and although Boston’s outfield is congested — this roster is still begging for one more trade — Abreu’s Gold Glove defense marks his spot in the lineup. If Abreu didn’t get hurt last year, his ADP would surely be 30-50 slots higher this spring. 

OF Justin Crawford, Phillies (205.1 ADP) 

The ADP is on the rise but it’s still going to be reasonable all spring, so consider the upside case with this intriguing rookie. Crawford hasn’t developed power yet, but he was a .334/.411/.452 player at Triple-A last year, with 46 steals in 112 games. And that came while navigating his age-21 season; time is on his side. 

Crawford is in camp as a non-roster invitee, given a chance to win the bigger half of Philly’s center field platoon. But with Johan Rojas facing a PED suspension, Crawford has a shot to take this job all for himself. Crawford’s defense is MLB-ready — the Phillies will appreciate having a good defender join their outfield, for once — and he’s not going to have the bat knocked out of his hands. 

Crawford also checks the pedigree box, as he’s the son of former All-Star Carl Crawford. You’ll see similarities in their games.  

1B/OF Alec Burleson, Cardinals (175.7 ADP) 

I’m putting Burleson at the bottom of today’s list because he might be more of a value pick than a true sleeper. Again, amigos, I’m not hung up on definitions. I’m just trying to give you some appealing players to target in your drafts, guys you can make a profit on. Burleson applies. 

Burleson figured out lefties in 2025 and no longer has any worry about being platooned. His contact skills are excellent and he still might grow into a 25-30 homer guy. He also qualifies at first base, which has quietly become a difficult fill in recent seasons. The Cardinals will probably have Burleson in the No. 3 slot all year, ideal for volume and run production. 

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We are far from the heyday of the AL Central. In 2025, the five clubs in this group produced 387 wins, which tied the NL West for the fewest by any division. Given that the NL West included the World Series champion Dodgers but was dragged down by the 43-win Rockies, it’s fair to say the AL Central was the weakest group overall.

If any team is going to lead this division back to glory, it’s likely the Tigers. Detroit has the best pitcher in the American League (Tarik Skubal), a solid offense and an ]

Chicago White Sox

Projected record (per FanGraphs, as of March 4): 69-93, 1.2% odds to make the playoffs, 0.5% odds to win the division

What happened last season? The lengthy rebuild continued on the South Side, as the White Sox won just 60 games, 10 fewer than the next-worst American League team. Still, they were much better than in their historically bad, 41-win 2024 season. The improvements came from a total team effort, as no Chicago player achieved a 3.0 WAR, but 11 reached a mark of 1.3 or better. Infielder Colson Montgomery needed just 71 games to lead the team with a 2.7 WAR, as he went deep 21 times. Catcher Kyle Teel was the other notable newcomer, as he produced a lofty .375 OBP over 78 games. And while Shane Smith endured a rough stretch in the middle of the season, he finished as the club leader in pitching WAR (2.2) while logging a respectable 3.81 ERA over 29 starts and being named an All-Star.

What happened in the offseason? Although the White Sox are heading in the right direction, they aren’t ready to be major players in the free-agent market. That said, they made many roster improvements this winter, primarily with the signing of Japanese slugger Munetaka Murakami. The 26-year-old is a strikeout-prone power hitter who might not have reached his peak yet already has a 56-homer season and several 30-homer campaigns on his résumé. The organization also looked overseas to help the rotation, signing lefty Anthony Kay, who pitched in Japan for two years. Sean Newcomb was added to compete for a rotation spot, and he could help the bullpen if those plans don’t work out. Erick Fedde was a last-minute addition before spring training. He struggled last year but posted a 3.11 ERA in 21 starts with the White Sox in 2024. In the bullpen, Seranthony Domínguez was added on the expectation that he can take over the closer’s role. Austin Hays was the other notable signing, as he owns a respectable lifetime .748 OPS and should play often in right field. Finally, there was a significant trade, in which Chicago sent disappointing outfielder Luis Robert Jr. to the Mets for a package that included Luisangel Acuña, who could become a lineup regular right away.

Best-case scenario for 2026: To be clear, there is no chance that the 2026 White Sox play in October. Success this season will be measured by the improvements of young players, not wins and losses. To that end, Montgomery and Teel need to repeat their rookie-year achievements across a full campaign. Murakami must make a smooth transition to America, and Chase Meidroth and Miguel Vargas must continue their ascension toward being useful major-league regulars. On the pitching side, it would be nice to see Smith or Sean Burke take the next step. And by the summer, notable prospects Noah Schultz and Hagan Smith should be ready to debut. Overall, White Sox fans can hope to have an exciting young team to cheer for down the stretch.

Worst-case scenario: The pain might not be over for Sox fans. There isn’t a pitcher on the roster who has great odds of making notable strides this year. Schultz and Hagan Smith might not be ready to contribute, as Schultz was inconsistent last season, and Smith has yet to reach Triple-A. On the offensive side, Montgomery has potential for a sophomore slump after striking out in 29.2% of his rookie-year plate appearances. The same worries come with Murakami, who received tepid interest from major-league teams thanks to his jarring swing-and-miss tendencies. There’s also a dearth of relievers with exciting skill sets, which is bad news for a team with few starters who can consistently throw six innings. No one should be surprised if Chicago loses 100 games for a fourth straight season.

Make-or-break player: Colson Montgomery. The 23-year-old might have the most upside of anyone on the Sox’s roster. After all, he hit 21 home runs in 71 games in his rookie season. He also struck out 29.2% of the time, and any regression in that area would put him into dangerous territory in terms of holding down a full-time role. Montgomery could finish 2026 among the major-league home run leaders, or he could hit .210 and see his playing time reduced. The hope is that he will be closer to the former than the latter. 

Season prediction: Unfortunately, the White Sox seem likely to finish last in the American League for one more season. The rebuilding Twins might be there to break Chicago’s fall, but there is still more talent in Minnesota than there is on the South Side. However, there could be bright spots for the Sox this year in the forms of Murakami, Hays, Acuña, Shane Smith, Teel and Montgomery. For now, fans will have to focus on individual performances rather than team success.

For NBA offenses that struggle in half-court situations, the question of structured offense versus a read-and-react system is a sliding scale that differs from team to team. Younger, less experienced players tend to benefit from set playcalls, with the idea that as games and seasons are accumulated, they’ll eventually be able to conduct possessions on their own based on what an opposing defense presents. 

A team like Houston, which has been a bottom-third half-court offense since head coach Ime Udoka took over in 2023, is an interesting case study. As far as age is concerned, the Rockets sit firmly in the middle when both minutes and usage are taken into account, which makes sense given how Udoka tends to approach things. Not too young of a group to need instruction, not too old to give full autonomy.  

“It’s a balance,” Udoka said late last month. “We’re not the fastest-paced team, but I don’t want to stop and call plays every time. I think at times, you need to get the proper look or shot. But that’s where we talk about the growth of our young guys. Understanding what to get and when to attack — Amen [Thompson] and Reed [Sheppard] are in that boat. At the same time, I don’t want to slow down and have them thinking too much. Use their strengths and not take away their aggressiveness.”

Specifically concerning Sheppard, the former No. 3 pick who has seen his playing time double due to his emergence as a reliable playmaker and bona fide floor spacer, Udoka’s words are poignant. The Rockets have won four out of their last five games, with Sheppard averaging 19.2 points, 5 assists and 4.2 rebounds per game, shooting an impressive 46.3% from 3 on nearly 11 (!) attempts — in addition to 2.2 steals and 1 block a night. He’s third in minutes during that span and second in net rating while posting the best assist-to-turnover ratio on the team. 

Sheppard’s recent improvement as a creator is noteworthy. Whether it’s because of a confidence boost, growing IQ or both, Sheppard looks poised with the ball in his hands, capable of making wraparound passes, finding downhill threats or simply keeping plays alive. According to Second Spectrum, Sheppard’s 63 assist points created over the past five games wedge him between Stephon Castle and LaMelo Ball — a good indication of his growth.

In other words, he’s looked every part of a legitimate NBA starter. A really frickin’ good one. 

Because of the similarities both Sheppard and the injured Fred VanVleet share, a lot of what Sheppard is able to accomplish this season will naturally be viewed through that lens. VanVleet is widely regarded as one of the premier floor managers, with a knack for limiting turnovers while being able to keep an offense organized. (Houston’s half-court issues last season were more from spacing, personnel and tactical issues that VanVleet’s structure couldn’t always accommodate.)

I’ve previously referred to Sheppard as a low-risk initiator, but there’s a “potentially very good reward” caveat that needs to be added. It’s one thing to be a trusted source of ball security — his 10.4 turnover rate is in the 83rd percentile among guards, according to Cleaning the Glass. It’s another to be that good of an outside shooter and relocator playing next to Kevin Durant, one of the most gravitationally inclined players in NBA history. It’s even more mind-boggling considering Houston’s insistence on taking any shot but a 3. The Rockets are 28th in 3-point rate, but have quietly climbed to 22nd over the past five games — mostly due to Sheppard’s presence. He’s simply too good of a shooter on a low-volume team to be buried on the bench, especially when you consider what he can do with the ball in his hands. 

(The book is out on Houston, and in the postseason teams will throw every zone possible at the Rockets and force them to beat them from deep. Sheppard’s spacing has the potential to alter Udoka’s game plan, a necessity if they have any hopes of making a deep playoff run in a few weeks.)

But what is Sheppard’s ultimate role on this team and where/how do you fit him in? He’s currently been inserted into the starting lineup while Jabari Smith Jr. manages an ankle injury, but Udoka told reporters that Smith will slot back into his original role upon his return, pushing Sheppard back to the reserves. 

In all honesty, the question of starting or coming off the bench truly doesn’t matter as much as who closes games, which is where Sheppard can truly make his mark. The Rockets remain one of the league’s more confusing clutch units, with the third-worst turnover rate and a bottom-10 net rating despite the No. 1 offensive rebounding rate. Most of Sheppard’s minutes are shared with the starters plus reserve big Clint Capela, and it’s clear Houston has been pushing the combined development of Sheppard and Thompson for its long-term success. 

Still, it’s critical that Sheppard is given both the time, freedom and personnel to have his greatest output. Udoka has tried both approaches — allowing Sheppard to operate on the fly and calling him over to go through actual sets — and that combination is how the second-year guard can flourish, quickly. 

“It’s a little bit of both,” Sheppard told Yahoo Sports recently of how he sees the floor in real time. “The defense isn’t going to be the same every game or every trip down the court, so having some plays in your back pocket that you can go to no matter what.”

The Sheppard question is one that will surface repeatedly between now and the end of the season. It’s understood that Udoka has a preference for defensive-minded players, and Sheppard is a playmaker in that regard. Yes, his size and frame make him a target — and he could become a focal point in the playoffs — but there’s no denying his mentality in competing at that end of the floor. Sheppard is in the 76th percentile in DARKO DPM, a defensive impact metric per 100 possessions, and is 84th in Stop%, a Databallr combination of steals, blocks and offensive fouls drawn per 100 possessions.

There’s no doubt that Sheppard has the tools to be a very impactful player for a very long time. But the frequency in which he’s given the opportunity, how that affects Houston’s order of operations and the marriage of both is the biggest underlying factor of the Rockets’ success, both now and in the future. 

It was early December in 2013 when the Los Angeles Lakers’ Facebook page posted a two-minute video of a jersey floating in the wind. Tens of thousands of captivated fans couldn’t wait to reshare and comment as dramatic music played over the social media post. 

The No. 24 jersey hung in the sky as sunshine pierced through some clouds. Then, over the course of the next 120 seconds, a thunderous storm battered the jersey until it tore in half. 

Finally, after a beam of light, the jersey was made whole. 

The symbolism relayed the message: Kobe Bryant was back. “Seasons of Legend. The Lakers announce Kobe’s return,” the post’s caption read. The then 35-year-old Bryant, who had torn his Achilles less than eight months prior, was returning in near-record time, missing just 21 Lakers regular-season games with an injury that infamously had ended NBA careers.

Unfortunately, Bryant’s comeback season lasted only six games. Just nine days after his return, Bryant suffered a serious knee injury in the same leg of his torn Achilles, quickly dimming all the excitement over his fast return. His season was over and Bryant’s playing abilities were never the same.

Boston Celtics star Jayson Tatum has idolized Bryant and his Mamba Mentality ever since Tatum was a child. The 28-year-old has said Bryant’s story has driven him to become the NBA player he is today. As Tatum nears his own return from an Achilles tear, he should continue to take lessons from Bryant’s career. The Lakers star’s historic 2013 return offers a cautionary tale about what could happen in a highly anticipated and quick midseason return.

Tatum should also take heed of the rehab schedule of another NBA legend, one that tells the greatest Achilles tear story of all time: Kevin Durant.

Kobe vs. KD: A contrast in Achilles recoveries

Watching Kevin Durant dominate in the year 2026, an uninformed observer would never guess the Houston Rockets All-Star tore his Achilles tendon just as he entered his thirties. Durant’s injury occurred in the 2019 NBA Finals while playing for the Golden State Warriors and he took the next season off as he joined his new team, the Brooklyn Nets.

While Bryant struggled to return to his pre-Achilles form, Durant’s superstar status hasn’t wavered. The 37-year-old is averaging an unthinkable 27.6 points with white-hot efficiency in the six seasons since the longest tendon in the human body snapped in his leg. His post-Achilles-tear résumé, consisting of six All-Star appearances and two All-NBA nominations, shines brighter than most players’ entire careers. 

Julio Aguilar via Getty Images

To be clear, no two Achilles tears are the same. Different mechanisms of injury, different bodies and all that. Beyond the difference in age between Bryant and Durant at the time of their injuries — Bryant was 34, Durant was 30 — the most interesting dynamic is a contrast of time in another dimension: recovery time. 

Durant’s absence from NBA games lasted 18 months, more than twice that of Bryant’s eight months.

We will never know if Durant would have fared as well in the back nine of his career if he returned midseason in 2019-20. Complicating matters was the COVID-19 pandemic that disrupted everything in March of that season, including Durant’s injury rehab process with the Nets. Durant decided not to pursue a comeback in The Bubble when the Nets resumed the season in late July. Instead, he took extra time to get himself ready for the following season, which would begin in December 2020.

In an interview with Andscape’s Marc J. Spears, Durant said the decision to not play in the 2019-20 season was made well before the pandemic hit.

“My season is over,” Durant said in June 2020. “I don’t plan on playing at all. We decided last summer when it first happened that I was just going to wait until the following season. I had no plans of playing at all this season. It’s just best for me to wait. I don’t think I’m ready to play that type of intensity right now in the next month. It gives me more time to get ready for next season and the rest of my career.”

Though Durant missed some time in 2020-21 dealing with various injuries, his play on the floor didn’t seem to suffer at all. Leading the Nets in the postseason, the long layoff may have paid dividends. He scored a scorching 34.3 points per game in the playoffs, the most of any player who suited up at least 10 games during that postseason.

Plenty of speculation has surrounded Tatum about when he may return this season, if at all. If Tatum decides to sit out the season, he would give himself about 17 and a half months of a layoff before next season kicks off in mid-October — basically the Durant timeline.

Should Tatum suit up for the Celtics this week, though, he’d be returning about 10 months after he went down in the closing minutes of Game 4 of last year’s Eastern Conference semifinals against the New York Knicks. In this sense, he’s given himself two months of a buffer behind Bryant’s timeline when the Laker legend got back on the floor in December following his April injury. But it still would be a remarkably quick timetable in the modern era. A 10-month return would mark the shortest post-Achilles absence for a starting player since the 2015-16 season when Rudy Gay came back in under nine months with the Sacramento Kings.

For another comparison, Tatum can look at fellow former All-Star Dejounte Murray. 

Achilles recovery timelines are getting longer lately

Last Tuesday, the New Orleans Pelicans guard scored 13 points in a home win over the Warriors, making his return from his Achilles tear suffered in January of the 2024-25 season. Thirteen is also a notable number because it represents the number of months that it took for the former All-Star to get back on the floor.

Murray’s timeline is increasingly becoming the norm. According to Yahoo Sports research supported by injury expert Jeff Stotts of Instreetclothes.com, Murray marks the 30th player since 2005-06 to return to playing NBA games after suffering an Achilles tear in the league. The Pelicans guard headlines a growing number of players who are taking longer than a year to return from the major tendon rupture.

In the decade between the 2005-06 and 2014-15 seasons, there were 12 instances of an NBA player returning from an Achilles injury and, on average, those players spent 10.4 months away from the game. Bryant took only eight months. Same went for Elton Brand and Mehmet Okur, who barely took eight months to hit the hardwood again following their Achilles tears. In 2015, Wes Matthews took 7.7 months to return from his Achilles tear and still enjoyed an impactful nine-year post-Achilles run in the NBA while playing for several playoff teams until he was 37 years old.

At the time of Brandon Jennings’ Achilles tear, he was averaging 15.4 points as a 25-year-old with the Detroit Pistons. As one of the more talented young players in the game, Jennings took a little over 11 months to return, getting back on the floor in December. The Pistons moved him later that season and, after bouncing around the league for three years, he never averaged double-digit points again. 

Lately, the timelines have gotten longer. In the Achilles ruptures from 2015-16 to 2024-25, the timeline stretched from 10.4 months on average to 13.6 months. In that sample, only two of the 18 players (Rudy Gay and Dru Smith) returned well ahead of the 10-month mark, something that happened with regularity in the previous decade.

Klay Thompson spent nearly 14 months away from the NBA floor after he tore his Achilles in November 2020, perhaps delayed because of his earlier ACL injury. More recently, Brandon Clarke and Thanasis Antetokounmpo also saw more than 12 months pass before they took the floor again.

It’s not as simple as to say that longer is always better. DeMarcus Cousins, who was a four-time All-Star before he tore his Achilles in January 2018 with the Pelicans, came back the following January with the Warriors. He needed 12 months to get back onto the court, but never regained his All-Star status and was out of the league by 2022. 

Recovery timelines don’t always lend themselves to perfect apples-to-apples comparisons. Nothing about injury data is squeaky clean. A return to play could be artificially delayed because the player is waiting for the start of the season. COVID and lockout-shortened seasons could also affect an NBA player’s recovery time in ways out of his control. But in general, as we await Tatum’s return, it does seem that players are taking longer to get back onto the court. 

Tatum and Boston’s ticking clock

For Tatum, there are positive signs that he’s on track to a full recovery. Because his surgeon, Dr. Martin O’Malley, was in New York at the time of the injury in a game that happened to be at Madison Square Garden, Tatum was able to have his Achilles stitched in quick order. According to Tatum’s documentary series aired on NBC, O’Malley had an opening in his calendar at 3 p.m. the next day and made time for Tatum.

“There’s pretty strong data,” O’Malley said, “that if you do [Achilles surgery] within 24 hours [of injury], patients have better outcomes.”

In O’Malley’s view, Tatum’s recovery was headed in the right direction early on. “I don’t think I’ve seen a person’s calf look as strong as his,” he said in September. “At six or eight weeks he was doing double heel rises. He worked his calf so hard that the side effect of loss of strength, I don’t think he’s going to have any.”

The Celtics have been tight-lipped about possible return dates. The team confirmed he has been practicing with the team and the G League Maine Red Claws when the opportunity arises. 

While other players could decide to return in 12 or 13 months, Tatum may not have that luxury. The Celtics’ season could be over by then. There are 21 games left in Boston’s regular season, which ends in a little over a month on April 12. That would mark 11 months since the injury. As the No. 2 seed in the East, the Celtics are expected to make a deep playoff run that could reach the NBA Finals in June. But if they’re a first-round out, a 12-month timetable for Tatum goes out the window, with his return rolling over to October. It’s worth noting that of the 30 Achilles returns to play since 2005, none came during the playoffs when gradual ramp-ups aren’t as easy.

If the Durant plan is in place, Tatum would eye next season for his debut. But if Tatum and his medical team believe he’s ready to go now, he wouldn’t be copying KD. Or Kobe. He’d be writing his own story.

Coming off a second consecutive World Series victory — this time a seven-game thriller over the Toronto Blue Jays — the Los Angeles Dodgers are once again the betting favorites at sportsbooks to win the World Series and complete the sport’s first three-peat since the 1998-2000 New York Yankees.

This year, though, Los Angeles is an even bigger favorite than the last two seasons.

The Dodgers (+225 at BetMGM; higher at some other sportsbooks) have their shortest preseason World Series odds as a franchise since at least 1985, per Sports Odds History. Los Angeles had +350 odds in the preseason in 2024 and +240 odds last year. The Dodgers also have the shortest World Series odds of any MLB team in more than 20 years. 

The last time a team had shorter odds to win it all was the 2003 Yankees (+200) — a team that made the World Series but lost to the Florida Marlins. Recent history hasn’t been kind for preseason World Series favorites — the team with the best preseason World Series odds has won it all only four times since 2001, and that includes the Dodgers the last two seasons — but Los Angeles may have so much talent that it doesn’t matter.

“There’s a significant gap in talent as well,” Halvor Egeland, BetMGM trading strategy manager, told Yahoo Sports, “The Dodgers are in a tier of their own.”

To wit, no other MLB team has World Series odds in the single digits. The New York Yankees (10-1), Seattle Mariners (13-1), Toronto Blue Jays (13-1) and New York Mets (14-1) have the next-best odds. The Dodgers have a win total of 103.5 — the next highest win total is the New York Mets and Yankees at 90.5.

Los Angeles has the most wagers and most dollars wagered to win the World Series at multiple sportsbooks.

“The Dodgers are by far taking the most action in terms of bets and handle,” Egeland noted. “They are our biggest liability among competitive teams. The Mariners and Blue Jays round out the top three in both categories [handle and wagers] but it’s a relatively sizable gap.”

The short odds aren’t stopping the betting public from backing Los Angeles to get its three-peat, though, including putting the Dodgers in the currently en vogue futures parlay.

“The Dodgers are definitely the most bet team with the most handle and one of the teams we do most poorly on, even though they have the shortest odds,” said Eric Biggio, MLB trader at Caesars Sportsbook. “People are also putting Los Angeles to win the World Series in futures parlays with Scottie Scheffler to win the Masters, Oklahoma City to win the NBA title, etc.”

It’s not a surprise that the public loves the Dodgers, as the team has won the NL West crown in a shocking 12 of the past 13 seasons and made the postseason every year. Los Angeles is a prohibitive favorite at -650 to win the NL West again this season, an implied probability of 86.7%. 

The Colorado Rockies have the longest odds to win the World Series, at 1,000-1 odds.

We wrote about sleeper starting pitchers, and now we’ll discuss potential breakouts heading into the 2026 fantasy baseball season. Sometimes there’s overlap in sleepers and breakouts, but the main difference involves confidence in a player breaking out in the following season. To define breakout starting pitchers, we’re looking at players who could drastically outperform their draft cost in the following season. 

[Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Baseball league for the 2026 MLB season]

The draft market could be discounting this player, or we found skills to support a repeat or an improved level heading into the 2026 season. Here, we’ll provide five breakout candidates at the starting pitcher position based on the advanced data and underlying metrics. 

MacKenzie Gore, TEX

MacKenzie Gore was the only starting pitcher with three pitches eliciting a swinging-strike rate at 18% or higher. That includes Gore’s slider (19.5%), changeup (20%) and cutter (18.8%). It’s worth noting that Gore introduced a cutter in 2024, which he primarily threw to right-handed hitters (6%) in 2025, as his fourth-most thrown pitch. It was a small sample of Gore’s cutters, but they were effective for whiffs against righties and weaker contact (.253 wOBA, .259 xwOBA).

Gore changed his pitch mix against left-handed hitters, showing he understands that he needs to throw his best pitch (slider) more often. That’s evidenced by Gore throwing his slider 44.3% of the time against left-handed hitters (2025), up from 4.9% in 2024. Historically, Gore relied heavily on the four-seamer against lefties in 2024 (52.3%) and 2023 (57.1%).

Gore’s pitch mix change against lefties should continue to be fruitful because hitters destroyed the four-seamer in 2025 (.451 wOBA, .387 xwOBA) and 2024 (.385 wOBA, .373 xwOBA). Theoretically, Gore’s four-seamer should generate more whiffs and better results, given the movement profile. Gore’s four-seamer has above-average induced vertical break (IVB) with elite extension (89th percentile).

That suggests Gore’s four-seam locations could improve since he tends to throw it in the zone too often. When Gore threw the four-seamer in the zone in 2025, it led to a 12.6% swinging-strike rate, .367 wOBA and .382 xwOBA. Unfortunately, that’s not much better than when Gore throws the four-seamer outside the zone (.364 wOBA, .371 xwOBA). That hints at Gore’s four-seamer being unable to elicit weak contact, partially because it lacks arm-side fade. 

Thankfully, Gore likely knows that and continues to evolve his pitch mix to lower the four-seam usage. Beside the whiffs, Gore’s control can be an issue, with a 37% ball rate in 2025. The wild card in Gore’s favor involves the significantly better defense behind him on the Rangers. Last season, the Rangers’ team defense ranked first in defensive runs saved (DRS), while the Nationals (Gore’s former squad) ranked 27th. In Outs Above Average, the Rangers ranked sixth and the Nationals ranked 29th. 

Gore should provide plenty of strikeouts and a potentially improved WHIP, which could be better than his career norm (1.40). If Gore posts a 1.25 WHIP, there will be tons of value in the improved team context in 2026, as a starting pitcher breakout and sleeper. It’s a low-risk, high-reward draft selection. 

Ryan Weathers, NYY

Injuries have been a problem for Ryan Weathers, who hasn’t logged 100 innings throughout his five MLB seasons. In a small sample of 38 innings, Weathers posted a career-best swinging-strike rate (13.6%) after missing nearly 150 days (144) on the injured list for a strained forearm and lat strain. We saw Weathers’ four-seam velocity reach 96.9 mph in 2025, a career high. During a recent spring training outing, Weathers threw his four-seam harder, averaging 98.5 mph against the Nationals.

It might be scary for a pitcher with an extensive injury history to be ramping up their velocity early in spring training. However, we know that increased velocity can be beneficial from a whiff and weak contact standpoint. Notably, Weathers’ changeup and sinker were thrown over 1.5 mph harder in his recent spring training performance. Weathers made a pitch mix change by lowering his four-seam usage and bumping up sweeper usage. Monitor that adjustment, though it could be small-sample noise. 

The main concern for the changeup would be losing downward movement with the additional velocity. Theoretically, it could lead to fewer whiffs, especially to right-handed hitters. For context, Weathers’ changeup elicited a 20.7% swinging-strike rate, over five percentage points above the league average.

In Weathers’ spring training outing, he tinkered with throwing more sweepers, particularly to lefties (45%). Weathers threw sweepers 27.8% of the time in 2025, but we saw him experiment with heavy sweeper usage at 35.1% in 2024 against left-handed hitters. That would be an optimal approach because Weathers’ sweeper remains one of his best pitches, allowing a .221 wOBA (.153 xwOBA). Interestingly, the changeup was relatively effective against lefties (.250 wOBA, .184 xwOBA). Weathers threw his changeup more against left-handed hitters in 2025 (18.3%) across a small sample, up from 10.8% in 2024. 

Weathers has been going past pick 200 as one of the final picks in drafts. Expect his ADP to rise, but the price bakes in the injury risk for a potential breakout season in 2026. The increased velocity, pitch mix change and improved team context support the upside scenario. 

Trevor Rogers, BAL

We need to go back to 2021, when Trevor Rogers had an ERA under 4.00, before the 1.18 ERA in 2025. There will be a regression for Rogers, given his 3.56 xERA. The four-seam velocity improved to 93.1 mph in 2025, up from 91.9 mph in 2024 and much closer to the 93-95 mph before that. Rogers boasts an above-average 12.7% swinging-strike rate, headlined by his slider (17.6%) and changeup (14.3%).

The changeup used to be nastier, with peak seasons generating a 20% swinging-strike rate (2023) compared to a career average at 15.4%. Rogers’ changeup possesses an above-average movement profile, similar to the peak seasons for whiffs. That suggests there’s a good chance Rogers’ changeup whiffs bounce back to the near-elite levels in 2026.

Interestingly, his changeup has been decent but not dominant against right-handed hitters, particularly in terms of contact quality. That’s evident in Rogers’ changeup, which allowed a .248 wOBA (.308 xwOBA) in 2025, slightly better than in 2024 (.334 wOBA, .300 xwOBA). We typically find changeups being effective against opposite-handed hitters, especially if they can generate whiffs. Overall, Rogers tends to locate the changeup well, low and below the zone against righties.

However, it’s worth highlighting Rogers’ changeup found success against left-handed hitters (.166 wOBA, .244 xwOBA, 17% swinging-strike rate) in the small sample of 136 changeups over the past two seasons (2024-2025). Since Rogers throws from a low arm angle (22 degrees), his sinker seems to tunnel with the changeup and fade toward his arm side at an above-average rate. However, Rogers tends to struggle with the sinker command, given the sporadic heatmaps and inconsistent outcomes over the past two seasons. 

Rogers added a sweeper in 2025, throwing it 11% of the time versus left-handed hitters and 6.4% of the time against righties. The sweeper is a slower version of the slider, with downward movement that’s nearly identical, yet sweeps over two inches toward his glove side compared to the slider. Although it’s Rogers’ fifth-most-used pitch against either side of the plate, it provides something different, more toward his glove side than the rest of his arsenal. 

Rogers already showed us the potential ace-like upside in 2025 across 109 innings. Assuming the outcomes regress, there are still above-average strikeout skills. We could argue that Rogers already broke out in 2025, but the draft price around pick 150 suggests drafters don’t believe in sustainable success in 2026. Prioritize Rogers as a potential full-season breakout starting pitcher where he significantly outperforms his projected value. 

Emmet Sheehan, LAD

Like Rogers, some might say Emmet Sheehan already broke out in 2025 after a 73-inning sample with a 2.82 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 23% K-BB%, and 16.2% swinging-strike rate. That’s near-elite upside for a starting pitcher, though it’s a limited sample throughout his MLB career. We can’t emphasize enough how rare it is to find a starting pitcher with a swinging-strike rate at 16% or higher. In 2025, Sheehan trailed Tarik Skubal (16.8%) as the only two starting pitchers with a 16% swinging-strike rate, with a minimum of 50 innings pitched.

For context, Blake Snell (16.3%) and Garrett Crochet (16.2%) reached that mark in 2024, with Spencer Strider (18.9%) and Tyler Glasnow (16.4%) as the only two in 2023 with a swinging-strike rate at 16% or higher. During Sheehan’s debut season, his slider (19.6%) and changeup (22%) were nasty pitches in terms of swinging-strike rate. For context, the slider and changeup were 3-7 percentage points above the league average in swinging-strike rate.

However, we saw Sheehan’s slider take a step forward, eliciting a 23.3% swinging-strike rate. Meanwhile, Sheehan’s changeup regressed to a 13.6% swinging-strike rate in 2025. Sheehan threw from a higher arm angle (35 degrees) in 2025 compared to 30 degrees in 2023. That coincided with Sheehan’s changeup losing over 4 inches of arm side fade. Thankfully, Sheehan continued to find success via the changeup against left-handed hitters, allowing a .155 wOBA (.201 xwOBA) in 2025.

If Sheehan’s slider and changeup can be above-average pitches for whiffs and weak contact, that would unlock another level. That’s mainly because he already throws a four-seamer that added over 2 inches of induced vertical break (17.9 inches). Sheehan’s four-seam went from mediocre to above-average in IVB in 2025, as a heater he locates in the upper third of the zone. 

Sheehan’s strikeout skills can reach those near-elite levels, though it’s a matter of health and volume for him in 2026. Assuming the ratios regress, Sheehan should have a breakout season where he hits career highs across most categories, even if it’s on a per-inning basis. That said, drafters haven’t been sleeping on Sheehan, as he currently holds an ADP of 155.3, and that could climb.

Nick Lodolo, CIN

Nick Lodolo had his best season in 2025, but the draft market has been cautious on him heading into 2026. Maybe it’s because Lodolo’s skills have been consistent (boring) and his home park remains in Cincinnati (one of the best hitter’s parks in MLB), but there are several aspects to like in Lodolo as an SP2 or SP3 with upside. Lodolo lowered his arm angle in 2025 (15 degrees) compared to around 19-22 degrees. That leads to Lodolo’s pitch movement profiles being heavier into horizontal movement. 

Lodolo’s changeup (14.1%) and curveball (19.5%) have been key pieces of his arsenal from a swinging-strike standpoint in 2025, similar to his career averages. Interestingly, Lodolo started throwing more changeups to right-handed hitters in 2025 (27.5%) compared to 2024 (20.2%). The changeup continued to be one of his better pitches against righties (.246 wOBA, .301 xwOBA) as one of three pitches, allowing a wOBA under .300, including the four-seam (.258 wOBA, .249 xwOBA) and curveball (.259 wOBA, .233 xwOBA).

Lodolo’s curveball has been his only pitch that moves toward his glove side, coming from a lower arm angle. He relied heavily on the curveball in 2025 (43.8%) compared to 2024 (37.3%) and 2023 (49.5%) against left-handed hitters. That aligns with the quality outcomes via the curveball against left-handed hitters, leading to a .263 wOBA (.166 xwOBA) in 2025 compared to a .271 wOBA (.180 xwOBA) in 2024. 

Interestingly, Lodolo continued to lower his arm angle when throwing the curveball from 18.8 degrees (2024) to 15.9 degrees (2025). He has been using a slightly lower vertical release point with the horizontal release fluctuating throughout his career. Although it’s unusual, Lodolo’s curveball has been his best pitch, ranking 13th in Stuff+ for curveballs among pitchers with 100 innings pitched. 

Hunter Greene (48 ADP) and Chase Burns (127 ADP) have been garnering tons of love in the Reds’ starting rotation. However, don’t forget about Lodolo, who goes later in drafts, but hasn’t been valued as a potential breakout starting pitcher in 2026.