NBA playoff picture March 26: All of the scenarios and stakes for postseason contenders down the stretch run

The NBA playoff picture will come into clearer view each day between now and the end of the regular season on April 12. In the meantime, we will provide detailed daily updates on the landscape, including magic numbers, remaining schedules and the stakes for every day’s slate of games. And for those teams not in the postseason hunt, we also breakdown the “race” for the pole position in the upcoming NBA Draft lottery.

Jump to:Eastern ConferenceWestern Conference


(7) Philadelphia 76ers vs. (8) Miami Heat
(9) Charlotte Hornets vs. (10) Orlando Magic

(7) Phoenix Suns vs. (8) LA Clippers
(9) Portland Trail Blazers vs. (10) Golden State Warriors


(1) Detroit Pistons vs. (8) play-in winner
(2) Boston Celtics vs. (7) play-In winner
(3) New York Knicks vs. (6) Toronto Raptors
(4) Cleveland Cavaliers vs. (5) Atlanta Hawks

(1) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (8) play-In winner
(2) San Antonio Spurs vs. (7) play-In winner
(3) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (6) Houston Rockets
(4) Denver Nuggets vs. (5) Minnesota Timberwolves


In the Eastern Conference, the Detroit Pistons, Boston Celtics, New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers, in some order, appear bound for the top four playoff seeds and home-court advantage in the opening round. The Pistons, who hold a four-game lead on the Celtics, are almost certain to capture the East’s No. 1 seed, barring a complete meltdown in the absence of injured Cade Cunningham (collapsed lung).

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Who, exactly, those four teams will play in the opening round is entirely up for grabs, as just two wins separate the fifth seed from the 10th seed. The Toronto Raptors, Atlanta Hawks, Philadelphia 76ers, Orlando Magic, Charlotte Hornets and Miami Heat are all jockeying for position down the stretch of a season that has surpassed 70 games.

Technically, the Milwaukee Bucks and Chicago Bulls are still alive for postseason contention, though they are locked in a different kind of race — one for lottery odds.



Record: 52-20 | Net rating: 7.9 (3rd)

  • Clinched playoff berth

  • Magic number for No. 1 seed: 6

  • Remaining schedule: NOP, @MIN, @OKC, TOR, MIN, @PHI, @ORL, MIL, @CHA, @IND

  • Highest possible finish: No. 1 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: No. 4 seed

What’s at stake: The No. 1 seed and home-court advantage throughout the Eastern Conference playoffs.



Record: (48-24) | Net rating: 7.8 (4th)

  • Magic number for No. 2 seed: 10

  • Remaining schedule: ATL, @CHA, @ATL, @MIA, @MIL, TOR, CHA, @NYK, NOP, ORL

  • Highest possible finish: No. 1 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: No. 9 seed

What’s at stake: The No. 2 seed and home-court advantage in the Eastern Conference semifinals.

Record: 48-25 | Net rating: 6.8 (5th)

  • Magic number for No. 3 seed: 7

  • Remaining schedule: @CHA, @OKC, @HOU, @MEM, CHI, @ATL, BOS, TOR, CHA

  • Highest possible finish: No. 1 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: No. 7 seed

What’s at stake: The No. 2 seed and home-court advantage in the Eastern Conference semifinals.

Record: 45-28 | Net rating: 4.0 (8th)

  • Magic number for No. 4 seed: 6

  • Remaining schedule: MIA, @UTA, @LAL, @GSW, IND, @MEM, ATL, @ATL, WAS

  • Highest possible finish: No. 1 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: No. 10 seed

What’s at stake: The No. 4 seed and home-court advantage in the first round.

Record: 41-32 | Net rating: 1.7 (12th)

  • Magic number for No. 6 seed: 8

  • Remaining schedule: @BOS, SAC, BOS, @ORL, @BKN, NYK, @CLE, CLE, @MIA

  • Highest possible finish: No. 2 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: No. 10 seed

What’s at stake: The No. 5 or 6 seed and a guaranteed playoff berth.

Record: 40-32 | Net rating: 1.6 (13th)

  • Magic number for No. 6 seed: 10

  • Remaining schedule: NOP, ORL, @DET, SAC, @MEM, @BOS, MIA, MIA, @NYK, BKN

  • Highest possible finish: No. 2 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: No. 10 seed

What’s at stake: The No. 5 or 6 seed and a guaranteed playoff berth.

Record: 40-33 | Net rating: -0.3 (19th)

  • Magic number for No. 7 seed: 9

  • Remaining schedule: @CHA, @MIA, @WAS, MIN, DET, @SAS, @HOU, @IND, MIL

  • Highest possible finish: No. 3 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: No. 10 seed

What’s at stake: The No. 5 or 6 seed and a guaranteed playoff berth.

Record: 39-34 | Net rating: 2.6 (11th)

  • Magic number for No. 8 seed: 9

  • Remaining schedule: @CLE, @IND, PHI, BOS, WAS, @TOR, @TOR, @WAS, ATL

  • Highest possible finish: No. 3 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: Out of the postseason

What’s at stake: The No. 5 or 6 seed and a guaranteed playoff berth.

Record: 38-34 | Net rating: 4.7 (6th)

  • Magic number for No. 9 seed: 9

  • Remaining schedule: NYK, PHI, BOS, @BKN, PHX, IND, @MIN, @BOS, DET, @NYK

  • Highest possible finish: No. 3 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: Out of the postseason

What’s at stake: The No. 5 or 6 seed and a guaranteed playoff berth.

Record: 39-34 | Net rating: 0.7 (17th)

  • Magic number for No. 10 seed: 2

  • Remaining schedule: @TOR, PHX, ATL, @DAL, @NOP, DET, MIN, @CHI, @BOS

  • Highest possible finish: No. 3 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: Out of the postseason

What’s at stake: The No. 5 or 6 seed and a guaranteed playoff berth.



Record: 29-43 | Net rating: -5.5 (25th)

Record: 29-43 | Net rating: -4.3 (23rd)

What’s at stake: Whichever team finishes with a worse record will receive a 20.3% chance at a top-four pick and a 4.5% chance at the No. 1 pick. And whichever team finishes with a better record will get a 13.9% shot at top four and a 3% shot at No. 1.

However, if the Bucks do ultimately land the No. 1 pick in the draft lottery — or any selection higher than the New Orleans Pelicans — it will convey to the Hawks.



Out West, the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs are bound for the top two seeds, with OKC holding a two-game lead for the league’s No. 1 overall seed.

The Los Angeles Lakers, with their recent nine-game winning streak, moved in as heavy favorites to capture the conference’s No. 3 seed. Beyond them is anyone’s guess.

The Denver Nuggets, Minnesota Timberwolves and Houston Rockets, who are all but guaranteed the West’s final three guaranteed playoff spots, with just one loss separating them. Only one of those three teams will earn home-court advantage in the first round.

The four teams for the conference’s play-in tournament field is almost set with the Memphis Grizzlies’ elimination on Wednesday. The Phoenix Suns, Los Angeles Clippers, Portland Trail Blazers and Golden State Warriors appear headed for the Nos. 7-10 seeds.



Record: 57-16 | Net rating: 10.8 (1st)

  • Clinched playoff berth

  • Magic number for No. 1 seed: 8

  • Remaining schedule: CHI, NYK, DET, LAL, UTA, @LAL, @LAC, @DEN, PHX

  • Highest possible finish: No. 1 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: No. 2 seed

What’s at stake: The No. 1 seed and home-court advantage throughout the playoffs.

Record: 55-18 | Net rating: 8.0 (2nd)

  • Clinched playoff berth

  • Magic number for No. 2 seed: 1

  • Remaining schedule: @MIL, CHI, @GSW, @LAC, @DEN, PHI, POR, DAL, DEN

  • Highest possible finish: No. 1 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: No. 3 seed

What’s at stake: The No. 2 seed and home-court advantage in the Western Conference semifinals.



Record: 47-26 | Net rating: 1.3 (15th)

  • Magic number for No. 3 seed: 7

  • Remaining schedule: BKN, WAS, CLE, @OKC, @DAL, OKC, @GSW, PHX, UTA

  • Highest possible finish: No. 2 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: No. 7 seed

What’s at stake: The No. 3 seed and home-court advantage in the first round.

Record: 46-28 | Net rating: 4.4 (7th)

  • Magic number for No. 4 seed: 8

  • Remaining schedule: UTA, GSW, @UTA, SAS, POR, MEM, OKC, @SAS

  • Highest possible finish: No. 3 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: No. 7 seed

What’s at stake: The No. 4 seed and home-court advantage in the first round.

Record: 45-28 | Net rating: 3.6 (10th)

  • Magic number for No. 5 seed: 9

  • Remaining schedule: DET, @DAL, @DET, @PHI, CHA, @IND, @ORL, @HOU, NOP

  • Highest possible finish: No. 3 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: No. 8 seed

What’s at stake: The No. 4 seed and home-court advantage in the first round.

Record: 43-29 | Net rating: 3.9 (9th)

  • Magic number for No. 6 seed: 7

  • Remaining schedule: @MEM, @NOP, NYK, MIL, UTA, @GSW, @PHX, PHI, MIN, MIN

  • Highest possible finish: No. 3 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: No. 10 seed

What’s at stake: The No. 4 seed and home-court advantage in the first round.

Record: 40-33 | Net rating: 1.0 (15th)

  • Magic number for No. 7 seed: 7

  • Remaining schedule: UTA, @MEM, @ORL, @CHA, @CHI, HOU, DAL, @LAL, @OKC

  • Highest possible finish: No. 3 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: No. 10 seed

What’s at stake: The No. 7 seed and home-court advantage against the No. 8 seed in their opening game of the play-in tournament.

Record: 37-36 | Net rating: 1.3 (14th)

  • Magic number for No. 8 seed: 8

  • Remaining schedule: @IND, @MIL, POR, SAS, @SAC, DAL, OKC, @POR, GSW

  • Highest possible finish: No. 5 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: No. 10 seed

What’s at stake: The No. 8 seed and two chances to secure a playoff berth.

Record: 37-37 | Net rating: -1.3 (20th)

  • Magic number for No. 9 seed: 8

  • Remaining schedule: DAL, WAS, @LAC, NOP, @DEN, @SAS, LAC, SAC

  • Highest possible finish: No. 6 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: No. 10 seed

What’s at stake: The No. 8 seed and two chances to secure a playoff berth.

Record: 35-38 | Net rating: 0.3 (18th)

  • Magic number for No. 10 seed: 3

  • Remaining schedule: WAS, @DEN, SAS, CLE, HOU, SAC, LAL, @SAC, @LAC

  • Highest possible finish: No. 6 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: No. 10 seed

What’s at stake: The No. 8 seed and two chances to secure a playoff berth.

Arizona AD reveals important detail about path to keeping Tommy Lloyd

Arizona Wildcats athletic director Desiree Reed-Francois gave CBS Sports college basketball insider Jon Rothstein an important update regarding Tommy Lloyd’s status as UA basketball head coach after this season:

“Tommy has done a phenomenal job,” Reed-Francois told Rothstein on Thursday, March 26. “He’s one of the best coaches in America. We have been engaged with his representatives about a new contract since before the start of the NCAA Tournament. Those discussions will continue and it is our goal that he retires as a Wildcat.”

If Arizona has been in contact with Lloyd’s reps since before the NCAA Tournament started, they gained a head start on negotiations with the current Wildcats head coach that other programs did not have. For instance, the primary opening college basketball analysts routinely see Lloyd as a top fit for is North Carolina. The university did not even fire its head coach (Hubert Davis) until March 24.

If the negotiations are fluid, there’s little doubt that the UNC opening has driven up the price.

UA has performed better than UNC over the past four years, making each of the past three Sweet 16s (including this year’s) when UNC has missed the second round these past two seasons. North Carolina, however, is the better historical program, winning six national championships compared with Arizona’s one.

Arizona needs as many advantages as it can have in this arms race, and if the program had already been working on a new contract for Lloyd before March Madness began, they are taking advantage of him being in the building and looking to beat other programs to the punch.

Employing one of the highest-paid coaches in college basketball, Arizona was able to extend Lloyd through the 2029-30 season last offseason. Lloyd’s Wildcats took on Arkansas (No. 4 seed) on March 26.

This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: AD gives major detail on where UA is at with Tommy Lloyd contract saga

Houston Rockets jersey history No. 10 – Terry Teagle (1993)

The Houston Rockets have had players donning a total of 52 different jersey numbers (and have one not part of any numerical series for Houston assistant coach and general manager Carroll Dawson) since their founding at the start of the 1967-68 season, worn by just under 500 players in the course of Rockets history.

To honor all of the players who wore those numbers over the decades, Rockets Wire is covering the entire history of jersey numbers and the players who wore them since the founding of the team all those years ago right up to the present day.

With seven of those jerseys now retired to honor some of the greatest Rockets of all time to wear those jerseys, there is a lot of history to cover.

And for today’s article, we will continue with the eighth of 21 who wore the No. 10, wing alum Terry Teagle. After ending his college career at Baylor, Teagle was picked up with the 16th overall selection of the 1982 NBA Draft by the Houston Rockets.

The Broaddus, Texas native played the first two seasons of his pro career with Houston before he was cut in 1984, later playing with the Detroit Pistons, Golden State Warriors, and Los Angeles Lakers before returning to Houston for the final season of his career in 1993.

During his time suiting up for the Rockets, Teagle wore only jersey Nos. 20 and 10 and put up 7.7 points, 1.9 rebounds, and 1.5 assists per game.

All stats and data courtesy of Basketball Reference.

This article originally appeared on Celtics Wire: Rockets jersey history No. 10 – Terry Teagle (1993)

El Hijo Del Vikingo Shares Thoughts On WWE-AAA Integration

El Hijo del Viking wrestling Chad Gable – WWE

Nearly one year ago, WWE became the majority owner of Lucha Libre AAA Worldwide. In the months since, WWE has brought the AAA product more in line with its own, which (according to Dave Meltzer) has yielded positive and negative results. Unsurprisingly, though, divisive AAA star El Hijo del Vikingo had glowing things to say about the transition during a recent interview with Denise Salcedo.

“It’s a win-win for everyone in the company,” Vikingo said. “Here in Mexico, tickets sell out, people are left outside the arenas. They’re packed and everyone wants to see El Hijo del Vikingo.”

The wrestler believes that the acquisition has made it so that many WWE fans have started watching AAA and vice-versa. As an added benefit, Vikingo gets to work with figures that he looked up to as a child, including The Undertaker, who has taken on a prominent backstage role in AAA.

Another aspect of the change that Vikingo is excited about is the ability to face new opponents. He named Dominik Mysterio as an example, though he may regret those words today. Shortly after the interview took place, Mysterio defeated Vikingo to retain the AAA Mega Championship.

Looking ahead, Vikingo has ambitions outside the AAA side of the deal, as well.

“I will enter the main roster of WWE,” Vikingo stated. “We already entered the video game. Now, we are going to enter the main roster. Those are my short-term plans.”

Vikingo has yet to appear on the WWE main roster, though he did wrestle at both of last year’s Worlds Collide events, featuring WWE and AAA talent on one card. Earlier this year, it was reported that unlike many of his AAA co-stars, Vikingo is signed to a WWE deal.

If you use any of the quotes in this article, please credit Denise Salcedo and provide a h/t to Wrestling Inc. for the transcription.

Read more: Why WWE Won’t Rehire These Current Wrestlers

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Read the original article on Wrestling Inc.

Julian Nagelsmann tips hand on Germany lineup selections

HERZOGENAURACH, GERMANY – MARCH 25: Kai Havertz of Team Germany talks to the media during a training session at adidas Homeground on March 25, 2026 in Herzogenaurach, Germany. (Photo by Alexander Hassenstein/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Former Bayern Munich and current German national team head coach Julian Nagelsmann wants to get Arsenal attacker Kai Havertz firmly back into the mix for Die Mannschaft and will start him against Switzerland on Friday.

“Kai Havertz will start. He’s been away for a long time, we want to give him minutes. He also needs to get back into the rhythm with us,” Nagelsmann said during his press conference (as captured by @iMiaSanMia).

In addition to Havertz, Nagelsmann said that he would start Nico Schlotterbeck and Jonathan Tah at center-back.

“Jonathan Tah and Nico Schlotterbeck will start tomorrow. Antonio Rüdiger is extremely committed, regardless of his role, whether it’s from the start, from the bench, or not at all. He has assured us that he will give his all. There will certainly be games where he plays from the start. We hope no one gets injured, but as long as the other two remain fit, that’s how it will be for now,” said Nagelsmann.

Finally, Nagelsmann confirmed that his starting midfield would consist of Leon Goretzka and Angelo Stiller. Not having Aleksandar Pavlović or Felix Nmecha available will allow the manager to test some other players out for the role.


If you are looking for more Bayern Munich and German national team coverage, check out the latest episodes of Bavarian Podcast Works, which you can get on Acast, Spotify, Apple, or any leading podcast distributor…

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Iowa State unsure if All-America forward Joshua Jefferson will play in Sweet 16 vs. Tennessee: ‘It’s really Joshua’s decision’

Iowa State had little trouble defeating Kentucky without injured forward Joshua Jefferson in the second round of the NCAA tournament.

With with a trip to regional final at stake against 6 seed Tennessee, the Cyclones would obviously prefer to play Friday’s Sweet 16 game with their All-America forward on the court.

As of Thursday, Jefferson’s status with a sprained left ankle is still unclear. And ultimately, per head coach T.J. Otzelberger, the decision will be Jefferson’s.

“It’s really Joshua’s decision,” Otzelberger said Thursday, per ESPN’s Pete Thamel. “We’re going to support him and love him and have his back in whatever he decides to do.”

Jefferson injured his ankle early in Iowa State’s first-round win over Tennessee State. The second-seeded Cyclones then rolled to an 82-63 win over 7 seed Kentucky despite Jefferson’s absence.

Jefferson’s now officially a game-time decision for an Iowa State team seeking to advance to the program’s first regional final since 2000. He was able to take the floor for shootaround on Thursday.

Iowa State will go through another shootaround on Friday. How Jefferson responds will likely determine whether he’s able to play Friday night.

Jefferson told reporters Thursday that he’s still dealing with “a good amount of pain.”

“Still a good amount of pain,” Jefferson said before shootaround. “If I can just play through hurt, I can play through hurt.”

He clarified that the decision will come down to whether he’s still injured or just hurt ahead of tip-off.

“Throughout my career, definitely had to play hurt a lot, but I think there’s a difference between hurts and injured,” he said. “So just trying to get to that hurt point right now.”

If Jefferson doesn’t play and Iowa State manages to beat Tennessee without him, he sounds optimistic about playing in a regional final on Sunday.

“Three more days would definitely help,” he continued. “I think we’re capable of getting to that Sunday game. Just handle this first one, and we’ll get there when we get there.”

Ravens sign center Danny Pinter, who spent 5 seasons with the Colts

OWINGS MILLS, Md. (AP) — The Baltimore Ravens have signed center Danny Pinter.

The team announced the move Thursday. The 29-year-old Pinter has played all five of his NFL seasons with the Indianapolis Colts.

Pinter has played 77 games in his NFL career, making 10 starts. The Ravens have an opening at center after star Tyler Linderbaum left in free agency for the Las Vegas Raiders.

___

AP NFL: https://apnews.com/hub/nfl

2026 NFL draft: Arizona Cardinals had combine visit with LB Jake Golday

The Arizona Cardinals are deep into their player evaluations for the 2026 NFL draft. Part of that process was having formal interviews with a number of prospects at NFL combine at the beginning of the month.

We know one of the players they met with — Cincinnati linebacker Jake Golday.

Golday, speaking with SI.com’s Justin Melo, revealed that he had a “bunch of formals” at the combine, and that list of teams included the Arizona Cardinals.

The Cardinals could use help at linebacker. Mack Wilson is entering the final year of his contract, Owen Pappoe enters the final year of his, and 2025 rookie Cody Simon’s time on the field as a starter resulted in an 0-9 record with six games allowing over 30 points.

Golday is Melo’s third-ranked linebacker in the draft.

He converted from the edge to off the ball. He is 6-4 1/2 and 239 pounds and ran the 40 at the combine in 4.62 seconds. He had 105 total tackles in 2025 and had 3.5 sacks, six tackles for loss, three pass breakups and a forced fumble.

He is likely a Day 2-3 player, and that is right in the range where the Cardinals could afford to get a linebacker.

As the draft approaches, keep an eye on Golday and what is said about him.

Get more Cardinals and NFL coverage from Cards Wire’s Jess Root and others by listening to the latest on the Rise Up, See Red podcast. Subscribe on SpotifyYouTube or Apple podcasts.

This article originally appeared on Cards Wire: 2026 NFL draft: Arizona Cardinals had combine visit with LB Jake Golday

University of Houston graduates say sports helped bring them together as married couple

Nafis Bhuiyan and his wife, Zerin, aren’t just fans of University of Houston hoops; they live it.

When you walk into their Richmond home, photos, merch, and Cougar-red everywhere. This is a family built on Houston basketball.

“We’re both graduates of the University of Houston. That’s a pride factor there. That’s my school. I have a tie to the program,” Nafis said.

So much so that the couple said Cougar athletics didn’t just give them memories, but also helped bring them together.

They even took their engagement photos on the field at Robertson Stadium just before it was torn down in 2012.

“Our foundation is sports,” Zerin said.

While they were students, the basketball program didn’t exactly bring them joyful memories.

“The program was in the dumps. I mean, hardly any students went there. The arena was old,” Nafis said.

Then came Kelvin Sampson and everything changed. And for this Cougar family, the winning culture became a way to come together.

“We go to the games. Whenever they are on the road, we watch. Do your projects early so we can sit there and watch the games together,” Nafis said.

The couple learned from Kelvin Sampson right from their own home.

“Being a dad, I always try to make it a teachable moment. You need to hustle. You’re a future Cougar, you have to play like the Jamal Shead’s, like the LJ Cryer’s,” Nafis said.

“He doesn’t like boastfulness. He likes humility. These are life lessons the kids can learn,” Zerin said.

And now, the next generation is all in.

“My oldest, her favorite player is Emanuel Sharp. When she plays, she wears number 21 because of him.

For Nafis and Zerin, this isn’t just basketball, it’s now about family and tradition.

“Our lives revolve around cougar basketball,” Nafis said.

For updates, follow Mo Haider on Facebook, X and Instagram.

Moise Kean might be waking up

KMB resurgence. | Grzegorz Wajda/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

Moise Kean was Serie A’s best striker last year. He finished second to Mateo Retegui for capocannoniere but he was more important to his team’s success and warped opposing defenses due to his supercharged threat in behind in a way Retegui doesn’t. Expectations were sky-high for the man crowned Italy’s number 9 heading into the World Cup but, like everyone else at Fiorentina, he’s fallen flatter than a schiacciatta this year: After scoring 19 goals in the league last year, he’s got just 8 this season and has achieved some astonishing lowlights.

Much has been made of Kean’s woeful domestic form and some of that criticism is fair. Kean’s got the highest xG in Serie A this year per Understat at 15.36, which means he should’ve scored about twice as many goals as he has. He’s getting chances, averaging 4.35 shots/90 (2nd-highest among players with 900 minutes) so it’s not a matter of his team failing to set the table. The Moose just hasn’t been good enough. Over these final few games, though, I believe that he’ll improve significantly for five reasons.

The first reason is tactical. Kean’s greatest strength is his threat in behind. To maximize that threat, he needs as much of the pitch as possible to attack. Over the first half of the season, Fiorentina’s narrowness allowed opponents to collapse on him, packing central areas and crowding him out. Paolo Vanoli settled on Manor Solomon and Fabiano Parisi on the wings as guys who naturally stay wide, stretching opposing defenses horizontally and creating more gaps for Kean to exploit. Add that to a more balanced midfield (thanks to Cher Ndour’s emergence) and Kean has more space to operate and more consistent service and support.

The second reason is health. Kean played through a right ankle injury for several months that negatively impacted him both physically and technically. While his nuclear straight-line speed never left, he lost some of his agility. More importantly, he lost interest in playing with his back to goal; given the agricultural treatment he regularly receives from centerbacks, he was trying to protect himself from further injury. His touch deteriorated too, making it harder for him to bring down long balls and finish. While xG said that he should’ve scored more, his own body made those chances much more difficult. From what I can tell, he’s just about healthy again.

The third reason for optimism is just the vibes. Strikers run on confidence and Kean even more so than many strikers; it’s no coincidence that his best seasons have come in places where managers placed trust in him. Fiorentina’s attitude under Stefano Pioli was rotten and Vanoli’s primary challenge has been undoing that damage. As the Viola inch away from relegation, the tension leaks out of everyone on the team, allowing them to play looser and better. That should help the Moose as much as anyone and maybe more.

Fourth, I think that cascading confidence will improve the team as a whole and that those improvements will do more for Moise than anyone else. Kean’s pace in behind, as I mentioned earlier, is his most dangerous quality. Everyone knows that and generally sits deep to negate that. The best way to force opponents to take the bus out of park is to put them at a deficit. As they throw bodies forward, space opens up behind. It’s slightly circular (elliptical?) logic but having his teammates chip in more goals means the Moose will have more chances to score, increasing his confidence and thus his likelihood of scoring.

Finally, I’m banking on math. Kean’s 2024-2025 was unsustainably hot. His 2025-2026 is unsustainably cold. Things generally re- or progress to the mean, particularly when the context points them in that direction. Kean’s too talented to keep misfiring forever. The gambler’s fallacy is at play but I trust a good player to be good sooner than later. As the rest of the team gets it together, Kean’s odds of snapping out of his funk increase apace.

After scoring in 3 straight games last month, it seemed that Kean was all the way back. He’s yet to notch in March but just clinched Italy’s win over Northern Ireland with a marvelous strike, setting up a showdown with Edin Džeko’s Bosnia and Herzegovina to determine which goes to the World Cup this summer. It’s the 5th consecutive game he’s scored in for the Azzurri (the first to do so since Toto Schillacci in 1990), emphasizing both his importance to Gennaro Gattuso and his sheer talent.

The thing about truisms like “form is temporary, class is permanent” is that they’re true. That applies to Kean as much as anyone. Everyone who’s seen him play since he was a teenager has known that he’s got all the talent in the world. I’ll always back a fuoriclasse to do cool stuff, especially one with a track record of doing cool stuff. I don’t gamble on anything but I’d put money on Kean finding his feet ahead of the World Cup and dragging Fiorentina out of the drop zone.