Well, that’s one way to clinch a playoff berth.

Victor Wembanyama drained a game-winner to lift the San Antonio Spurs past the Phoenix Suns on Thursday night. The 101-100 win was enough to secure the franchise its first playoff spot since the 2018-19 campaign, when Gregg Popovich was still the head coach.

With the Spurs down by a point in the final seconds at the Frost Bank Center, Wembanyama caught an inbounds pass and stalled a bit on the wing. With time ticking down, he dribbled once and hit a bucket over an outstretched Oso Ighodaro just outside of the lane. That shot, which fell with 1.1 seconds left on the clock, was enough to lift the Spurs to the one-point win and spark a huge celebration on the court.

Wembanyama finished with 34 points and 12 rebounds in the win. He went 10 of 20 from the field with three steals. 

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After the game, Spurs sixth man Keldon Johnson led teammates and the arena’s fans in serenading Wembanyama with an “M-V-P” chant.

The Spurs entered halftime in a seven-point hole, and slowly crawled back into the game in the second half. After Jordan Goodwin hit a 3-pointer for the Suns with 73 seconds left, San Antonio held Phoenix scoreless the rest of the way to spark the comeback win. Wembanyama hit a pair of free throws and then De’Aaron Fox made an easy bucket to cut the deficit back to a point. Rasheer Fleming missed a pair of free throws, which set up Wembanyama’s game-winner.

Collin Gillespie led the Suns with 24 points and six assists in the loss, which dropped them to 39-31 on the season. Devin Booker finished with 22 points, and Ighodaro had 15 points, 7 rebounds and 7 assists. 

Fox added 23 points and seven rebounds for the Spurs. Julian Champagnie finished with 14 points, and Devin Vassell had 12. The win was the team’s fourth straight and its 20th in a 22-game stretch that has launched the Spurs up the Western Conference standings. They are now second, three games back from the Oklahoma City Thunder and more than seven games ahead of the Los Angeles Lakers. 

While a playoff appearance was almost certainly going to happen this season based on how the Spurs have been playing in recent weeks, it’s now a done deal. The Spurs are in.

There’s no bigger payday than the one awaiting baseball players on the other side of free agency. We saw nine players this offseason take home contracts worth north of $100 million over the course of the deal. Nearly 20 free agents got deals worth $20 million annually or more. Some of those names who got paid big were top fantasy baseball assets in 2025, including Dylan Cease, Pete Alonso, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker and Cody Bellinger.

We all know money talks, so here are some of the most notable soon-to-be free agents in 2027, playing for their next contract, who are worth keeping an eye on going into the 2026 fantasy baseball season.

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Note: We’re excluding players with opt-out clauses (Bo Bichette) and those with club options (Ozzie Albies, Luis Robert Jr., William Contreras), sticking to unrestricted free agents, per Sportrac.

Batters

Jazz Chisholm Jr., 2B/3B, Yankees

Jazz is a true UFA in 2027 and enters this season making just under $12 million. His market value should land him above $20 AAV, so long as he has another strong season in the Bronx. Last year, Chisholm finished with career highs in homers (31) and RBI (80) while stealing over 30 bags with an .813 OPS. The 28-year-old made his second All-Star appearance and ranked fourth in WAR among second basemen at 4.2.

Chisholm has solid placement in a Yankees lineup that should finish toward the top in terms of scoring. There’s no reason he can’t duplicate his numbers from last season and has even stated his lofty expectations for himself publicly going into free agency in 2027. Right now, Jazz is a consensus second-round pick at a weak 2B position, so you aren’t getting much value in terms of ADP. But if Chisholm wants that big payday, he should duplicate or exceed his numbers from 2025.

Randy Arozarena, OF, Mariners

The 2021 AL Rookie of the Year was dealt to the Mariners from Tampa Bay prior to the deadline back in 2024. We all remember his magical run during 2020 with 10 HRs in 20 games before the Rays lost to the Dodgers in the World Series. His career trajectory has been slowly on a downward angle since then, though he did set a career high with 27 HRs last season in Seattle.

Arozarena’s borderline 30-30 season may get fantasy managers and GMs a bit hype but his underlying numbers aren’t that great. He set another career high with 191 strikeouts in 160 games and is on the other side of 30 years old. Still, Arozarena has that next contract in mind, giving him plenty of motivation along with the M’s World Series hopes. As the OF24 on Yahoo, Arozarena isn’t the worst outfield target in the middle rounds of your draft.

Alec Bohm, 1B/3B, Phillies

Bohm once looked like the future at one of the corner infield positions for the Phillies. But after 2025, there’s a good chance this is his last chance to prove himself in Philly. Bohm only played 120 last season after a strong 2024 in which he had 15 HRs and 97 RBI. His power went down from a .168 ISO to .123 last season, when he missed time due to a fractured rib.

He has three homers in 10 games this spring and has a lot to prove to get paid this upcoming offseason. If Bohm can get his power back and hit 20+ dingers, there’s a good chance he becomes a strong sleeper pick late in your fantasy draft. His ADP right now on Yahoo is 196.4, meaning he’s going undrafted in plenty of leagues. Bohm isn’t a bad final pick given the depth at 1B and 3B this season.

Honorable mentions: Adolis García, Brandon Lowe, Gleyber Torres, Luis Arráez, Taylor Ward

Pitchers

Tarik Skubal, Tigers

As the SP1 overall on Yahoo, there’s not much that needs to be covered with Skubal’s pending free agency. There’s a good chance the Tigers opt to deal the ace prior to the deadline this season, before he could potentially walk in free agency before 2027. The two-time back-to-back AL Cy Young winner doesn’t have much else to prove but we also know he wants to get that big contract.

Skubal should set the market with the biggest SP contract in MLB history, which could be in the $45 million per season range. The highest-paid pitcher on an AAV basis is Phillies ace Zack Wheeler at $42 million per season. You could make a case for Paul Skenes or Garrett Crochet as the top pitching option in fantasy baseball. But if you need a tie-breaker of sorts, you could look at Skubal’s pending free agency.

Freddy Peralta, Mets

The Mets acquired Peralta from the Brewers this offseason to shore up the rotation. He should operate as New York’s ace, set to pitch on Opening Day vs. the Pirates against Skenes. Peralta will turn 30 years old this summer but has been one of the more consistent pitchers in baseball over the past three seasons. He’s coming off a career-high 17 wins for Milwaukee in 2025, finishing with a sub-3.00 ERA for the second time in his career.

If all goes well in his first season in Queens, Peralta should see over 170 innings, 200+ strikeouts and be in the NL Cy Young race. He’ll have one of the best offenses in baseball backing him up and has plenty of incentive to perform at a high level again. As the SP15 on average in Yahoo drafts, Peralta presents plenty of value if he can replicate last season’s effort for the Brewers.

David Bednar, Yankees

The 31-year-old pitched well in New York as the closer after being dealt by the Pirates prior to the deadline last season. He posted 10 saves with a 12.8 K/9 and sub-1.00 WHIP over 22 appearances for the Yanks. With Devin Williams and Luke Weaver across town in Queens this season, Bednar takes over as the no-doubt closer for a Yankees team that is the favorite to win the AL East.

Bednar is being drafted as the RP6 on Yahoo but would it surprise anyone if he led the American League in saves? He led the NL in saves with 39 back in 2023 for a Pirates team that won just 76 games. There’s also a good chance the Yanks cut Bednar loose after 2026 to make room for promising young prospect, Carlos Lagrange. Bednar is a great closer target in the mid-rounds of drafts this season playing for a new deal.

Honorable mentions: Trevor Rogers, Shane Bieber, Brady Singer, Pete Fairbanks, Bryan Abreu, Casey Mize

With the 2026 MLB season approaching, you’re in the heat of your drafts. Yahoo analysts Scott Pianowski, Fred Zinkie and Corbin Young go around the table, sharing the batter and pitcher they’re most excited to draft this season.

Batters were most excited to draft

Plenty of value in Milwaukee

I’m glad I already have some Juan Soto shares, a fun and automatic pick if he’s there at fourth overall. He’s in the prime of his career, now stealing bases and insulated by a deep New York lineup. Maybe the timing is right for an MVP run. 

For some of my value picks, I’ll gravitate to Milwaukee, the best value-driven franchise in baseball. Brice Turang is one of those underrated players who does everything well. Andrew Vaughn has post-hype sleeper written all over him. And the quality of the Milwaukee defense will also push several of their pitchers to ADP-winning seasons as well. — Scott Pianowski

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Breakout coming for Twins infielder?

I’m predicting a Keaschall breakout and am trying to draft him on all of my teams. He showed last year that he has plenty of plate patience (9.2% walk rate) and can limit whiffs (14.0% strikeout rate). The infielder has a terrific batting eye, as his 20% chase rate is an excellent mark. He makes up for a mediocre quality of contact by keeping his batted ball on a low trajectory (45.8% ground ball rate, 20.3% line drive rate) and utilizing his 85th percentile average sprint speed.

From a premium spot in the Twins lineup, Keaschall will hit .285 with 90 runs, 35 steals and a double-digit homer total. The icing on the cake is that Keaschall is eligible at second base, which is one of the weakest fantasy positions this season. I see him as a clone of Cubs’ Nico Hoerner, with the added bonus of being available 2-3 rounds later in drafts. Some managers may be scared off by the amount of time Keaschall missed in 2025, but his fractured forearm was a fluke injury and not a reflection on the 23-year-old’s durability. Managers in category leagues can prioritize power hitters and balanced contributors in the early rounds before grabbing Keaschall as their primary speedster in Round 10. — Fred Zinkie

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Bounce back in Queens

If I’m feeling risky, it’s Luis Robert Jr. Robert joins the Mets after being on one of the worst franchises in baseball. On a per-plate appearance basis, Robert would average 18 home runs and 36 stolen bases over the past two seasons if we projected him for 550 plate appearances. Injuries have been a concern, but there’s a chance that Robert puts in extra work to remain healthy with an improved team context.

Besides 2023, Robert hasn’t hit 20 home runs, though the power skills exit with a career 10.1% barrel rate and 75.6 mph bat speed, both above the league norm. Furthermore, the Mets’ home park ranked 7th in Home Run Park Factors compared to 18th for the White Sox. That should boost Robert’s home run chances in a more hitter-friendly venue for right-handed hitters. 

Making contact can be an issue for Robert, but he crushes the ball when he hits it. What’s somewhat impressive involves Robert showing improved plate discipline by chasing less often over the past two seasons. He went from a 38.6% chase rate in 2023 to 35.6% in 2024 and 32.1% in 2025. That coincided with Robert’s zone swing rates dipping to 71.7% in 2024 and 74.3% in 2025, four percentage points below the league average. Robert looks like he made an actionable approach to improve plate discipline, which can be challenging, while continuing to hit the ball hard. 

If I’m looking for a discount on a solid player, it’s Bryan Reynolds, who averaged 24 home runs and five or more stolen bases for four straight seasons. He had his worst season from a production standpoint since his rookie year in 2019 when we toss out the 2020 season. From a skills standpoint, most of Reynolds’s advanced metrics look similar. Reynolds had a 73.5% contact rate, 10.1% barrel rate and 72.2 mph bat speed, all within 1-2 percentage points of his career norms. 

He expressed frustration with the outcomes in 2025 after feeling like he was hitting the ball well, which the underlying metrics indicate. Buy the dip on Reynolds because there’s a good chance he makes a mechanical adjustment and the skills point to a similar player moving forward. — Corbin Young

Pitchers were most excited to draft

A Tale of Two Logans

I hope a handful of my pitching staffs are helmed by either of the two Logans — Gilbert and Webb. Both righties are in big parks and tied to good defenses and competitive teams. I also like how both have proven the ability to succeed without maxing out on velocity, which could give them an assist in staying healthy (I acknowledge that Webb did have a Tommy John surgery, but it was 10 years ago). I’ll have both names on speed dial as I navigate the third and fourth rounds. — Scott Pianowski

Don’t ‘Mis’ out on this potential

I’ll take all of the Jacob Misiorowski shares. Remember the 2025 MLB All-Star Game and the controversy surrounding the decision to name Misiorowski as the NL starter? If you told me at that time that he would be available past pick 100 in 2026 drafts, I would have thought you were crazy. Misiorowski struggled at times in the second half (5.36 ERA) but still recorded a ridiculous 12.1 K/9 rate and solid 3.93 FIP over that stretch. And when many fantasy managers had turned their attention to football, he was one of the stars of October. In the NLDS, the flamethrower earned two wins while allowing one run over seven innings. He followed up that performance by striking out nine Dodgers over five innings in his lone NLCS appearance.

Among starting pitchers, only Hunter Greene logged a higher average fastball velocity than Misiorowski, who has 200-strikeout potential in his first full season. Managers who are passing on Misiorowski in favor of boring veterans such as Kevin Gausman or Sonny Gray are making a big mistake. He’s one of the most talented youngsters to enter the Majors in recent years and benefits from being part of an organization that consistently maximizes the effectiveness of their starters. After all, if Milwaukee pitching coach Chris Hook and turn Chad Patrick and Quinn Priester into effective starters, he can make Misiorowski a superstar. — Fred Zinkie

Don’t sleep on Cease

This is the year that I’m planning to wait on starting pitchers to attack those breakout picks in the middle and sleepers late in the draft. Trust the skills of Dylan Cease, though we have WHIP concerns. Cease was unlucky from a BABIP perspective, yet maintained a strong 20% K-BB% and 15.6% swinging-strike rate. A reminder from an advanced stats piece that K-BB% strongly correlates with Skill Interactive ERA or SIERA. Cease had a 3.58 SIERA in 2025, similar to 2024 (3.46). 

He has a dominant slider that generates a swinging-strike rate above 20% (21.3%), which he relies on heavily to right-handed hitters (45.3%), leading to positive outcomes (.273 wOBA, .233 xwOBA). The challenge comes against left-handed hitters, with the slider and curveball performing well when he finds success. Cease toyed with a changeup, but look for him to throw more sinkers or make a small tweak to the arsenal against left-handed hitters. He provides volume and strikeout upside at the price. — Corbin Young

The beauty of baseball involves extensive data and advanced stats available for us as fans and fantasy baseball managers. The downside, if we can call it that, involves over 200 players being drafted in most Yahoo leagues, with some deeper formats drafting 450 or more. If you’re like me and love diving into players, it takes time. Instead of digging into every fantasy-relevant player on all teams, we want to take the time to find outliers.

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Sometimes these outliers can win or lose us weeks (in head-to-head formats) or win or lose us leagues. Breakout players and busts come from situations where the luck factors and skills either aligned in a positive or negative way. One of the biggest questions we ask heading into the following season is whether a player can replicate their success or we should ignore their struggles from the previous year. 

We’ll touch on luck factors for hitters and pitchers to keep in mind, plus examine several hitters and pitchers; the goal for the player-level examination is to provide a path for how we might decide whether a player can replicate their success or if we can ignore the struggles from the previous season.

During the season, we should be able to follow a similar path, though the sample might be smaller, which makes the decisions more difficult. 

Be Mindful of Hitter Luck Factors 

BABIP or Hit Rate

As we mentioned in the introduction to the advanced stats article, we want to examine a player’s data and compare it to their career norms instead of the league average. The same goes for skills, advanced metrics and luck factors. One luck factor is batting average on balls in play (BABIP) or hit rate. Often, we can find hitters have outlier-level (high or low) batting averages related to their high or low BABIP. A player’s BABIP qualifies as a luck factor, meaning there will be variance, but sometimes it isn’t as controllable. 

However, we have some hitters who run higher BABIPs because they put the ball in play often, especially with fewer home runs since BABIP removes homers and strikeouts. Speed becomes a factor because faster players may have better batting averages when they put the ball into play. Examples would be José Caballero, Chandler Simpson, Oneil Cruz and Trea Turner, all of whom have high stolen base totals while running higher BABIPs because they’re fast athletes.

Since BABIP doesn’t include home runs, hitters who have higher flyball rates tend to have lower BABIP since flyballs that aren’t home runs tend to be outs. Think about Cal Raleigh, Kyle Schwarber or other elite power hitters who put the ball in the air often; they tend to have lower batting averages and BABIPs. Sure, they could have a higher batting average like Nick Kurtz, but many might be skeptical of a repeat based on the plate discipline and hitter profile.   

Home Run to Flyball Rate (HR/F)

Another luck factor is the home run to flyball rate, which is the percentage of home runs per flyball. Like BABIP, check how a hitter fares in HR/F based on their career averages instead of the league norm. If hitters post higher exit velocities, their median projection for HR/F should be around 15-20%. In the near-elite to elite power range, we find hitters post HR/F at 18% or significantly above 20%. However, hitters with a 20% HR/F tend to be the 75th to 90th percentile outcomes.

Often, breakout performances come from players who combine luck and skill. For example, Aaron Judge posted a 30% HR/F over the past four seasons, with over 50 home runs in three out of four seasons. That coincides with Judge’s elite and outlier power metrics. Besides the power skills and exit velocities, the consistent launch angles to hit flyballs matter. Think about some hitters that hit the ball hard, but most often on the ground, like Christian Yelich, Cruz, James Wood and Yandy Díaz. That said, we’ll look at hitters who could see their HR/F rate regress in 2026.

Hitter Skills

The skills for hitters involve plate discipline, power and speed. Plate discipline includes chase, swing, and contact rates. It’s somewhat more difficult to make more contact or improve plate discipline for hitters, though sometimes we find slight variations. That’s notable because hitters can hit the ball hard via bat speed training and strength programs. An example would be Brice Turang, who started hitting the ball harder with better bat speeds, separating himself from the likes of Steven Kwan. 

We can typically trust that a hitter can sustain the power skills, especially if they’ve shown it over a decent sample. The idea that it’s unsustainable for a hitter to repeat involves situations where there are mediocre or below-average power skills, yet a hitter’s outcomes (home runs) were higher than expected. Of course, there are instances where the home park factors into the hitter’s outcomes like in Cincinnati, Colorado, Seattle and New York (Yankees). If a hitter typically hit the ball hard, and it fell in a recent season or parts of the season, we could speculate on an injury, assuming it was reported. That’s especially true for back, oblique, lower body, and hand injuries since all components have a key role in swinging hard. 

It helps to have hitters who have above-average speed and athleticism when we’re looking at stolen bases. A minor-league track record for stolen bases can give us a slight signal, though the team contexts matter more. It’s probably a bit harder to track which teams tend to run, though we can figure that out via stolen base opportunities. We’ve seen some managers, like Dan Wilson and Dave Martinez, have their players run more often on the base paths, especially with the new stolen base rules in recent seasons. However, it’s not a perfect correlation because the players on the team matter. As we mentioned with injuries, we find hitters stealing less often if there was an injury, especially a lower-body one. 

We’ll focus on four hitters who can replicate their previous season or decide whether we should ignore them. 

Can These Hitters Replicate the Previous Season or Should We Ignore?

Can Jonathan Aranda Replicate the High Batting Average?

When a hitter like Jonathan Aranda posts a .409 BABIP, we should expect regression. Aranda was fortunate in 2025 from a batting-average standpoint, especially since he hit a ton more line drives after being groundball-heavy. Line drives can be fluky to rely on, though he showed a strong hit tool in the minors and decent plate discipline with a league-average contact rate (77.1%) in 2025. Aranda doesn’t have the speed or athleticism to maintain high BABIPs, so expect Aranda’s to regress in 2026, closer to .250 or .260 like the projections suggest, instead of something over .300. 

Will Nick Kurtz Replicate 2025?

There’s no denying Nick Kurtz’s power, given his 77.2 mph bat speed and 72.6% fast swing rate. Kurtz struggles to make contact (64%), yet we would take his .278 xBA since he crushes the ball. When hitters like Kurtz have elite power skills, they can sustain higher home run rates (HR/F). The 90th percentile HR/F for hitters with his type of power was around 25%, so Kurtz lives in the elite range of outcomes. It’s weird to see Kurtz have a high BABIP (.364) given his high flyball (43%) approach. It helps that Kurtz plays his home games in Sutter Health Park again in Sacramento because it tends to boost hitting, with 40 expected home runs in their home park. 

We could see his BABIP regress, meaning his batting average will shift somewhere between his xBA and around .260, as the projections suggest. Since Kurtz struggles to make contact, we might expect his batting averages to be below .250. However, it’s worth noting that Kurtz used a patient approach with a 22.2% chase rate, nearly six points below the league average. There was a similar trend with Kurtz’s swing rates, hinting at him being patient and selective. 

Kurtz can replicate 2025, though it will come over a large sample of plate appearances, meaning the per-plate appearance data likely won’t sustain. When hitters struggle to make contact, we want them to punish the ball with their bat speed and exit velocities. That’s what Kurtz does. Kurtz’s luck factors should regress slightly, making him a high-risk, high-reward hitter given the skills and price. 

Will Oneil Cruz’s Batting Average Bounce Back?

When on the clock, sometimes Oneil Cruz will tease you in the draft after going 21/22 with a .259 BA in 2024, which dipped down to 20/38 and a .200 BA in 2025. Like Kurtz, Cruz struggles to make contact with his massive 6-foot-7 frame. On the surface, Cruz’s luck factors impacted the batting average, evidenced by a .347 BABIP in 2024, down to a .262 BABIP in 2025. 

Interestingly, Cruz maintained his contact rates yet seemed to attempt for a more patient approach. That’s evident in Cruz’s chase, swing and zone swing rates dropping by 3-5 percentage points in 2025, compared to 2024. Groundballs have been an issue, with a 47-48% groundball rate. However, Cruz crushes flyballs and line drives when he elevates the ball, ranking third in average exit velocity on flyballs and line drives (EV on FB/LD) at 99.4 mph behind Shohei Ohtani (100.4 mph) and Kyle Schwarber (99.5 mph). That’s nearly 1 mph harder than Cruz’s EV on FB/LD in 2024 (98.5), ranking fifth. 

Cruz’s batting average should bounce back since he hits the ball hard while possessing elite speed (93rd percentile) and athleticism. However, Cruz’s batting average might be closer to his career xBA (.233) than his 2025 batting average. For what it’s worth, Cruz is currently hitting a clean 1.000 with two home runs in three at-bats in the World Baseball Classic.

Will George Springer Replicate 2025?

George Springer focused on swinging faster last season, with a 73.7 mph bat speed and a 40.2% fast swing rate. Furthermore, Springer boasted a career-best barrel rate per plate appearance (10.8%), over three percentage points higher than his career norm (7.2%). He went from mediocre power skills from 2022 to 2024 to ballooning to above-average in 2025. We should expect home run regression because Springer’s 32 home runs likely overperformed based on expectations. It’s a matter of regression to what, though, because Springer’s home run projections have been just under 25 home runs for most. 

Springer’s home run projection feels like a reasonable outcome, with the stolen bases a sneaky part of his profile. There’s still above-average speed and athleticism for Springer, though he remains efficient with a 94% stolen base conversion rate over the past two seasons with a decent 11-12% stolen base opportunity percentage.

Bake in some home run regression, but 23-25 home runs and 12-15 stolen bases remain a probable outcome to somewhat replicate the 2025 season. 

Can These Starting Pitchers Replicate Last Season or Should We Ignore?

There have been mixed thoughts on whether pitchers can control BABIP and hits. Like a hitter’s BABIP, pitchers can be fortunate if they strand runners at a high rate, compared to their career averages. However, high-end pitchers will strand runners because of their strikeout skills. We heard similar conversations about whether pitchers can control the contact quality. However, there’s enough research to show us that pitchers can generate whiffs and weak contact based on the pitch movement profiles and locations. 

Generally speaking, pitches with plenty of downward movement should generate more whiffs and ones with more horizontal fade and sweep can elicit weak contact. Skilled pitches can prevent hits and hard contact. Typically, these skilled pitchers elicit swings and misses, making them priority targets in drafts. We’ll examine four pitchers and their stats from 2025 to decide whether they can replicate their previous season or whether we should ignore them. 

Can Cade Horton Replicate 8th-Best ERA (2.53)?

Cade Horton posted elite ratios in his rookie season. However, Horton might have one of the bigger gaps between his ERA and xERA, suggesting to be cautious on him replicating his 2025 season. Horton’s skills were mediocre, not mind-blowing, evidenced by a 13% strikeout minus walk rate (K-BB%), 34% ball rate and 11.5% swinging-strike rate. In the minor leagues, we saw Horton post 13-15% swinging strike rates, so there could be more whiffs in the future.

That’s especially true when we consider Horton nearly had two pitches with a 20% swinging-strike rate. Horton’s slider (19%) and changeup (21.5%) led his arsenal from a swinging-strike rate, theoretically helping him against either side of the plate. The sweeping slider possesses above-average downward movement, but the changeup lacks an above-average movement profile.

Thankfully, Horton’s sweeper (.209 wOBA, .219 xwOBA) performed well against right-handed hitters, with the four-seam allowing a wOBA under .300 (.255), yet a .374 xwOBA. Besides the sweeper and four-seamer, no other pitches fared well with a wOBA under .300 against right-handed hitters. We saw similar outcomes against left-handed hitters, with his changeup allowing a .163 wOBA (.237 xwOBA) and the curveball giving up a .231 wOBA (.233 xwOBA). 

The data points to being cautious on Horton replicating his rookie season.

Will Yoshinobu Yamamoto provide ace-like outcomes again?

After shoulder injuries in 2024, Yoshinobu Yamamoto pitched like an ace, with a 2.49 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 20% K-BB% and a 13% swinging-strike rate across 173 innings. He continued that dominance into the playoffs, throwing an additional 37 innings, with a 1.45 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 18.8% K-BB% and a 3.05 Skill Interactive ERA (SIERA). There have been some with concerns about Yamamoto’s workload of over 200 innings when combining the regular and postseason, especially since many of the Dodgers’ starting pitchers have injury concerns. 

Yamamoto’s 3.04 xERA suggests some regression, but the skills point toward a near-elite starting pitcher. He maintained his pitch mix against left-handed hitters, but made a slight adjustment to right-handed hitters by lowering his four-seam usage by nearly 10 percentage points (32.1%). That coincided with Yamamoto throwing more sinkers (14.5%) and cutters (11.1%) against right-handed hitters in 2025. Both the sinker and cutter were thrown 8-9 percentage points higher in 2025 against righties. 

There’s a good chance Abbott might give up more home runs, especially since there’s a small margin for error when pitchers like him rely on their command. Abbott averaged a 104 Location+, with all five pitches having a Location+ at 103 or higher, aligning with the command we see in the heatmaps. The slider is the only pitch with an above-average swinging-strike rate (18.4%), with his changeup (12.9%) and cutter (13.9%) being the other two offerings missing bats at a double-digit rate. 

Be cautious with Abbott, though 2024 might be a more reasonable outcome (3.72 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) while giving up more home runs. Abbott’s draft cost bakes in the regression, so we don’t need to overcount it for 2026. We shouldn’t ignore the success because Abbott profiles as a command-over-stuff starting pitcher. 

Should or Shouldn’t We Ignore Shane Baz’s Rough Patch in 2025?

Shane Baz was recovering from Tommy John surgery in 2024 and pitched well with a 3.06 ERA and 1.06 WHIP across 79 innings. There was optimism for Baz heading into 2025, but the outcomes didn’t align with expectations. Baz threw 166 innings, with awful results (4.87 ERA, 1.33 WHIP), yet Baz’s 3.84 xERA suggests poor luck. That’s notable because Baz’s skills sustained from 2024 into 2025, evidenced by a 34% ball rate and 12% swinging-strike rate.

Besides Baz’s BABIP and strand rate regression in an unfavorable way, he gave up more home runs, with a 15% HR/F in 2025, up from 9% in 2024. It’s worth noting that Baz played in George Steinbrenner Field in 2025, which ranked sixth in home run park factor, tying them with the Athletics’ home park. Baz pitched in a hitter-friendly home park in 2025, which looks similar in 2026 while playing in Camden Yards (5th-best home run park factor). 

Baz added a cutter in 2025, which looked like a harder version of his slider with gyro-slide movement. For context, Baz’s cutter had very little horizontal movement, yet lost 10 inches of downward movement (25.6 inches) compared to the slider (35.6 inches). Baz’s cutter hasn’t been dominant against right-handed hitters, allowing a .325 wOBA (.283 xwOBA) in 2025 as his third-most used pitch (14.3%) behind the four-seam (46.3%) and knuckle curve (32.3%). 

Baz’s slider used to be his best pitch for whiffs with a 21-23% swinging-strike rate in 2021 and 2022. However, those were smaller samples and Baz made adjustments to the arsenal after recovering from Tommy John surgery in 2024. Baz tends to have some reverse splits, with poorer results against right-handed hitters than left-handed hitters. That’s evident in his knuckle curve being the primary quality offering against righties (.268 wOBA, .270 xwOBA). However, Baz has multiple quality pitches against left-handed hitters, including the changeup (.270 wOBA, .245 xwOBA) and knuckle curve (.255 wOBA, .214 xwOBA). 

Baz will be a stuff (107 Stuff+) over command (98 Location+) starting pitcher. That suggests we should chase pitchers like Baz, as a low-risk, high-upside option. Don’t ignore Baz in drafts based on the poor results from 2025.

After looking at ballpark effects on hitters on Tuesday, we will turn our attention to hurlers. Overall, the impact on pitchers will be the exact opposite as the impact on hitters. For example, if Coors Field is a hitter’s paradise, it’s also a death blow to the fantasy baseball value of any pitcher. But there is more nuance in some circumstances.

For example, strikeout tendencies by ballpark matter more for pitchers, as those totals are more directly tied to their fantasy production. And although home run tendencies matter greatly for hitters, the impact on pitchers is more closely tied to pure run production, unless the pitcher is especially prone to allowing homers.

[Draft your Yahoo Fantasy Baseball team for the 2026 MLB Season]

Here are some ballpark tendencies from 2025 that fantasy managers will want to know before drafting and setting their lineups.

Best Overall Park Factors (2025)	Worst Overall Park Factors (2025)
T-Mobile Park (SEA) 91	Coors Field (COL) 115
Globe Life Field (TEX) 91	Sutter Health Park (ATH) 108
Progressive Field (CLE) 95	Comerica Park (DET) 105
Petco Park (SD) 95	Dodger Stadium (LAD) 104
PNC Park (PIT) 96	Oriole Park at Camden Yards (BAL) 103
Kauffman Stadium (KC) 97	Fenway Park (BOS) 103
loanDepot park (MIA) 97	Rogers Centre (TOR) 103
Daikin Park (HOU) 97
Busch Stadium (STL) 97

Classic Pitchers Parks

T-Mobile Park

Although the Mariners have several pitchers who are coveted in fantasy circles, it’s fair to wonder if their home park embellishes their true talent. After all, last season Seattle hurlers produced a 3.28 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP at home, in comparison to a 4.50 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP on the road. That’s the difference between being the baseball pitching staff in baseball and a bottom-10 group. Fortunately, fantasy managers can bake in the T-Mobile advantage to the long-time Seattle starters who remain with the team this year.

Globe Life Field

Life is tough for hitters in the AL West, as Globe Life Field has quickly separated from the pack to join T-Mobile in their own tier of offense-suppressers. In fact, Globe Life could be the worst park for hitters, as it is not only tied with T-Mobile in overall park factor, but it ranked 28th (ahead of Busch Stadium and PNC Park) in terms of producing home runs.

Although the durability of Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi remains in question, they are both likely to be excellent on a per-game basis. And MacKenzie Gore has a good chance for a breakout season now that he has been moved from the Nats to the Rangers. Finally, although Jack Leiter has not yet shown exciting skills, he is still a former notable prospect who will continue to benefit from his home venue.

The best of the rest

The next tier of pitcher-friendly parks includes several venues that are well-known for aiding hurlers, including Petco Park (Padres), PNC Park (Pirates), Busch Stadium (Cardinals), Kauffman Stadium (Royals), loanDepot park (Marlins) and Daikin Park (Astros).

Hitter-friendly parks

Coors Field

There is no need to spend significant time reminding everyone that Coors Field remains undefeated in terrorizing pitchers. The Rockies rarely produce a viable fantasy pitching option, and most opposing pitchers should be benched in Coors Field. Colorado’s deep rebuild and lackluster roster are the only reasons to be a little more liberal with road starters at Coors, especially early in the season when the weather remains cold.

Sutter Health Park

Luis Severino has been vocal about his dislike for the Athletics temporary home. He likely isn’t the only one, as the Athletics logged a 4.96 ERA at home and a 4.42 mark on the road last season. The team has a few pitchers who could be sleepers this season, especially Jacob Lopez and Luis Morales. Unfortunately, the hitter-friendly nature of their home venue makes them less appealing in the final rounds of drafts.

The best of the rest

Comerica Park (Tigers) played surprisingly well for hitters last season, not that Tarik Skubal noticed. It is part of the second tier of hitter-friendly parks, along with Dodger Stadium (Dodgers), Oriole Park at Camden Yards (Orioles), Rogers Centre (Blue Jays) and Fenway Park (Red Sox).

Strikeout superiority

Some fans may not be aware that, in addition to having an impact on batted balls, some parks have qualities that lead to more or fewer strikeouts. Here are the parks at each end of the spectrum.

Best Strikeout Park Factors (2025)	Worst Strikeout Park Factors (2025)
T-Mobile Park (SEA) 113	Coors Field (COL) 89
Daikin Park (HOU) 110	Busch Stadium (STL) 90
Citizens Bank Park (PHI) 107	Kauffman Stadium (KC) 91
Angel Stadium (LAA) 106	Chase Field (ARI) 92
American Family Field (MIL) 106	Fenway Park (BOS) 93
Progressive Field (CLE) 106	Rogers Centre (TOR) 94

T-Mobile Park

Not only does Seattle’s venue suppress scoring, but it also helps with strikeouts to a greater degree than any other venue. The ridiculous benefits of this park is a good reason to choose Logan Gilbert or Bryan Woo from the second tier of aces.

Daikin Park

The park formerly known as Minute Maid is the second-best venue for racking up whiffs. Unfortunately, beyond Hunter Brown, Houston lacks starters who are known for their swing-and-miss abilities. Still, Daikin Park could help newcomer Tatsuya Imai and offseason addition Mike Burrows exceed expectations.

The best of the rest

The second tier of strikeout stadiums includes Citizens Bank Park (Phillies), Angel Stadium (Angels), American Family Field (Brewers) and Progressive Field (Guardians). This would normally be the part where I mention starting pitchers who joined these teams in the offseason, but unfortunately, these four clubs failed to invest heavily in the offseason pitching market.

Strikeout suppressers

Coors Field

Is there any part of pitching that this park doesn’t ruin? The answer is no.

Busch Stadium

The venue in St. Louis is a polarizing one, as it limits scoring but also limits strikeouts. To make the problem even worse, the Cardinals have several starters who already struggle to put batters away. The ceiling is incredibly low for Matthew Liberatore, Dustin May and Michael McGreevy.

Kauffman Stadium

Although Cole Ragans is unfazed by the tendencies of his home park, the rest of the Royals rotation lacks the swing-and-miss ability to overcome this venue. That list includes Michael Wacha, Kris Bubic, Seth Lugo and Noah Cameron.

The worst of the rest

The next tier of venues that reduce strikeout totals includes Chase Field (Diamondbacks), Fenway Park (Red Sox) and Rogers Centre (Blue Jays). The Blue Jays added two notable pitchers (Dylan Cease, Cody Ponce), as did the Red Sox (Sonny Gray, Ranger Suárez). Fantasy managers may wish to knock a few whiffs off their projections.

Throughout the season, fantasy baseball writers will often refer to certain ballparks as hitter-friendly or pitcher-friendly. While we use those broad definitions to save space and maintain the flow of a paragraph, those terms do not always give the full picture of a ballpark. Additionally, some writers use the terms incorrectly, as they cling to impressions of ballparks that are outdated or were never accurate.

[Draft your Yahoo Fantasy Baseball team for the 2026 MLB Season]

Here are the highlights of the 2025 Statcast ballpark data, which should be useful when setting draft rankings and lineups throughout the coming season:

Best Overall Park Factors (2025)	Worst Overall Park Factors (2025)
Coors Field (COL) 115	T-Mobile Park (SEA) 91
Sutter Health Park (ATH) 108	Globe Life Field (TEX) 91
Comerica Park (DET) 105	Progressive Field (CLE) 95
Dodger Stadium (LAD) 104	Petco Park (SD) 95
Oriole Park at Camden Yards (BAL) 103	PNC Park (PIT) 96
Fenway Park (BOS) 103	Kauffman Stadium (KC) 97
Rogers Centre (TOR) 103	loanDepot park (MIA) 97
	Daikin Park (HOU) 97
	Busch Stadium (STL) 97

Best HR Parks (2025)	Worst HR Parks (2025)
Dodger Stadium (LAD) 137	PNC Park (PIT) 66
Oriole Park at Camden Yards (BAL) 121	Busch Stadium (STL) 77
Rogers Centre (TOR) 118	Globe Life Field (TEX) 80
Citizens Bank Park (PHI) 117	Kauffman Stadium (KC) 83
Comerica Park (DET) 114	loanDepot park (MIA) 84
Sutter Health Park (ATH) 112	Oracle Park (SF) 84
	Fenway Park (BOS) 84

Hitter-friendly parks

Coors Field

The hitter’s paradise in Colorado remains the top ballpark by a mile. It enhances home runs and batting average while reducing strikeouts. Most pitchers need to be benched in Colorado. Coors could help Rockies’ offseason additions Willi Castro and Jake McCarthy have their best seasons.

Sutter Health Park

Minor League parks often play well for hitters, which makes it unsurprising that the Athletics temporary home is a bandbox that maximizes power numbers and overall scoring. The time at Sutter Health is the best thing that could have happened to an organization that is flush with emerging offensive stars, such as Nick Kurtz, Jacob Wilson and Shea Langeliers.

Comerica Park

This one is surprising, as Comerica is usually more of a neutral park. In 2025, it was a top-five venue for both homers and runs. Hitters are known to have problems in Detroit during the cold weather in the spring, but the park played very well for hitters during the warmer months. Personally, I’m going to need to see more proof in 2026 before I value Comerica as a true hitter-friendly venue. It’s something to monitor as the season progresses.

Dodger Stadium

Many fans are so busy attributing the Dodgers’ high-scoring offense to their terrific talent that they overlook the contributions of a home ballpark that has become the best in baseball for producing home runs. The homer-happy nature of Dodger Stadium is another reason to want Kyle Tucker on your 2026 roster.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards

Camden Yards ranked second in terms of inducing home runs, which led to a fifth-place finish in overall park factor. The changes to the outfield wall had significant effects, which is good news for the newest Orioles, such as Taylor Ward and Pete Alonso.

Pitcher-friendly parks

T-Mobile Park

T-Mobile is annually among the best venues for hurlers, as it not only suppresses run scoring but also accentuates strikeouts. Partly thanks to a historic season from Cal Raleigh, the Mariners ranked ninth in runs scored (766) last season. The club last scored more than 768 runs in 2007, which means that even with a talented group, their offense may be hampered by their park and take a small dip this year.

Globe Life Park

Globe Life has quickly emerged as one of baseball’s toughest parks on hitters. Corey Seager has managed to thrive anyway, but players such as Marcus Semien, Joc Pederson, Jake Burger, Adolis García and Jonah Heim have all had disappointing fantasy seasons as members of the Rangers in recent years. Fantasy managers shouldn’t get too carried away with projections for Texas hitters, including newcomer Brandon Nimmo.

Progressive Field

The combination of Progressive Field and Cleveland’s mediocre lineup should result in the Guardians finishing near the bottom of the league in runs scored for a second straight year. It’s another reason that I suggest being wary of investing too much in José Ramírez, who is supremely talented but needs to overcome some limiting factors this year.

Petco Park

Petco has long been known as a pitcher’s park. There isn’t much to glean from this selection from a fantasy perspective, as the Padres didn’t add many fantasy-relevant players in the offseason.

PNC Park

The Bucs’ home park plays well for doubles and triples, but in 2025, it was the toughest park in baseball to hit a home run. In fact, its HR park factor of 66 was far lower than the 29th total (77, Busch Stadium). The Pirates added a trio of power hitters in the offseason, Brandon Lowe, Marcell Ozuna and Ryan O’Hearn, who may be adversely affected by their new venue.

Myths, dispelled

— American Family Field in Milwaukee is widely regarded as a hitter’s park but leaned slightly to pitchers last year.

— Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati continues to accentuate home runs but was an average park for overall offense. The same thing can be said about Yankee Stadium.

— Oracle Park is regarded as one of the best venues for pitchers but was in the middle of the pack last season. It remains a tough park to hit home runs, though.

Handedness splits

Best Overall Park Factor – RHB (2025)	Worst Overall Park Factor RHB – 2025
Coors Field (COL) 115	Globe Life Field (TEX) 90
Sutter Health Park (ATH) 108	T-Mobile Park (SEA) 91
Chase Field (ARI) 106	Rate Field (CWS) 94
Rogers Centre (TOR) 105	Petco Park (SD) 95
Dodger Stadium (LAD) 105	Wrigley Field (CHC) 95
	Citi Field NYM (95)

Best Overall Park Factor – LHB (2025)	Worst Overall Park Factor LHB – 2025
Coors Field (COL) 115	T-Mobile Park (SEA) 92
Sutter Health Park (OAK) 108	Progressive Field (CLE) 92
Oriole Park at Camden Yards (BAL) 108	Globe Life Field (TEX) 93
Comerica Park (DET) 106	PNC Park (PIT) 94
Fenway Park (BOS) 105	Petco Park (SD) 95
Citi Field (NYM) 105

— Citi Field was one of the most favorable parks for left-handed hitters but near the bottom of the list for righty batters. Unfortunately, three of the Mets most prominent newcomers, Bo Bichette, Marcus Semien and Luis Robert Jr., bat from the right side.

— Fenway Park is slightly favorable for right-handed hitters but one of the best parks in baseball for lefty batters, thanks to the pesky pole. Unfortunately, the newest members of Boston’s lineup, Willson Contreras and Caleb Durbin, bat from the right side.

— Chase Field and Rogers Centre had some similarities last year, as both parks were favorable for right-handed hitters and neutral for lefties. Fortunately, Toronto newcomer Kazuma Okamoto and D-backs addition Nolan Arenado bat from the right side.

The word sleeper has become a nebulous term in the fantasy world, with various definitions depending on who you ask. But we all can agree that if you hit on a sleeper at the fantasy baseball draft table, you’ll be happy. Let’s assume the most general of sleeper definitions — a reasonably inexpensive commodity who has a decent chance to outkick his ADP — and move alone from there. 

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Here are some sleepers I like from the outfield in 2026. 

OF Daylen Lile, Nationals (214.9 ADP) 

The market is giving you a giveaway draft price here; please take advantage. Lile wasn’t overmatched in his first run through the majors, slashing .299/.437/.498 with nine homers and eight steals over 91 games. And the steal count is going to rise — he possesses a speed score in the 92nd percentile, and he had a silly 11 triples in 91 games last year. Some say the triple is a dying play in modern baseball — Lile is single-handedly bringing it back. His stolen-base success rate will rise as he gains experience. 

The Nationals were patient with Lile at the front of his debut, but he was hitting cleanup at the end of last season. This year, he’s slotted in the No. 3 spot, after James Wood and CJ Abrams and ahead of Dylan Crews. I probably can’t sell you on the bottom of the Washington lineup, but the top needs little defense. 

OF Ramon Laureano, Padres (215.1 ADP)

Laureano was probably the most underrated outfielder in fantasy baseball last year — he was the No. 29 outfielder in 5×5 value — and I initially had him as a double-digit value on my tiered rankings. I’m a little concerned the Nick Castellanos signing could create a logjam in the San Diego outfield, and ultimately, I decided to be prudent with Laureano’s ranking, mindful that he’s in his 30s and has never logged 500 at-bats in a season. Still, he’s an above-average hitter, and hopefully the Padres will give him some leash. 

Nobody picked outside the top 200 is a sure thing, but Laureano has already shown upside to be excited about. 

OF Kerry Carpenter, Tigers (205.2 ADP) 

Carpenter doesn’t take many walks and he’s never hit left-handed pitching much — the Tigers have generally platooned him — so at first glance, you’re thinking he’s a capped-ceiling player. But Carpenter showed some progress in limited work against lefties last year (three homers, .400 slugging) and Detroit is considering giving him more exposure to southpaws this season. 

So you have two paths to make your money on Carpenter this year. If he approaches 500 at-bats, 30-plus homers and 85-plus RBI are reachable targets. And if the platoon sticks, at least he can focus on what he normally does: mashing right-handed pitching. Carpenter is also in the prime part of his career arc, stepping into his age-28 season. Carpenter is probably a better pick for leagues that allow for regular lineup tinkering, but no matter your format, consider his positives. 

OF Wilyer Abreu, Red Sox (210.3 ADP) 

I’m not going to cheat and call Abreu a breakout player, because we’ve seen growth the last two years. If he doesn’t get hurt in the second half of 2025, Abreu likely gets home with 30 homers and 100 RBI. His .256 career average isn’t a problem, and although Boston’s outfield is congested — this roster is still begging for one more trade — Abreu’s Gold Glove defense marks his spot in the lineup. If Abreu didn’t get hurt last year, his ADP would surely be 30-50 slots higher this spring. 

OF Justin Crawford, Phillies (205.1 ADP) 

The ADP is on the rise but it’s still going to be reasonable all spring, so consider the upside case with this intriguing rookie. Crawford hasn’t developed power yet, but he was a .334/.411/.452 player at Triple-A last year, with 46 steals in 112 games. And that came while navigating his age-21 season; time is on his side. 

Crawford is in camp as a non-roster invitee, given a chance to win the bigger half of Philly’s center field platoon. But with Johan Rojas facing a PED suspension, Crawford has a shot to take this job all for himself. Crawford’s defense is MLB-ready — the Phillies will appreciate having a good defender join their outfield, for once — and he’s not going to have the bat knocked out of his hands. 

Crawford also checks the pedigree box, as he’s the son of former All-Star Carl Crawford. You’ll see similarities in their games.  

1B/OF Alec Burleson, Cardinals (175.7 ADP) 

I’m putting Burleson at the bottom of today’s list because he might be more of a value pick than a true sleeper. Again, amigos, I’m not hung up on definitions. I’m just trying to give you some appealing players to target in your drafts, guys you can make a profit on. Burleson applies. 

Burleson figured out lefties in 2025 and no longer has any worry about being platooned. His contact skills are excellent and he still might grow into a 25-30 homer guy. He also qualifies at first base, which has quietly become a difficult fill in recent seasons. The Cardinals will probably have Burleson in the No. 3 slot all year, ideal for volume and run production. 

We wrote about sleeper starting pitchers, and now we’ll discuss potential breakouts heading into the 2026 fantasy baseball season. Sometimes there’s overlap in sleepers and breakouts, but the main difference involves confidence in a player breaking out in the following season. To define breakout starting pitchers, we’re looking at players who could drastically outperform their draft cost in the following season. 

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The draft market could be discounting this player, or we found skills to support a repeat or an improved level heading into the 2026 season. Here, we’ll provide five breakout candidates at the starting pitcher position based on the advanced data and underlying metrics. 

MacKenzie Gore, TEX

MacKenzie Gore was the only starting pitcher with three pitches eliciting a swinging-strike rate at 18% or higher. That includes Gore’s slider (19.5%), changeup (20%) and cutter (18.8%). It’s worth noting that Gore introduced a cutter in 2024, which he primarily threw to right-handed hitters (6%) in 2025, as his fourth-most thrown pitch. It was a small sample of Gore’s cutters, but they were effective for whiffs against righties and weaker contact (.253 wOBA, .259 xwOBA).

Gore changed his pitch mix against left-handed hitters, showing he understands that he needs to throw his best pitch (slider) more often. That’s evidenced by Gore throwing his slider 44.3% of the time against left-handed hitters (2025), up from 4.9% in 2024. Historically, Gore relied heavily on the four-seamer against lefties in 2024 (52.3%) and 2023 (57.1%).

Gore’s pitch mix change against lefties should continue to be fruitful because hitters destroyed the four-seamer in 2025 (.451 wOBA, .387 xwOBA) and 2024 (.385 wOBA, .373 xwOBA). Theoretically, Gore’s four-seamer should generate more whiffs and better results, given the movement profile. Gore’s four-seamer has above-average induced vertical break (IVB) with elite extension (89th percentile).

That suggests Gore’s four-seam locations could improve since he tends to throw it in the zone too often. When Gore threw the four-seamer in the zone in 2025, it led to a 12.6% swinging-strike rate, .367 wOBA and .382 xwOBA. Unfortunately, that’s not much better than when Gore throws the four-seamer outside the zone (.364 wOBA, .371 xwOBA). That hints at Gore’s four-seamer being unable to elicit weak contact, partially because it lacks arm-side fade. 

Thankfully, Gore likely knows that and continues to evolve his pitch mix to lower the four-seam usage. Beside the whiffs, Gore’s control can be an issue, with a 37% ball rate in 2025. The wild card in Gore’s favor involves the significantly better defense behind him on the Rangers. Last season, the Rangers’ team defense ranked first in defensive runs saved (DRS), while the Nationals (Gore’s former squad) ranked 27th. In Outs Above Average, the Rangers ranked sixth and the Nationals ranked 29th. 

Gore should provide plenty of strikeouts and a potentially improved WHIP, which could be better than his career norm (1.40). If Gore posts a 1.25 WHIP, there will be tons of value in the improved team context in 2026, as a starting pitcher breakout and sleeper. It’s a low-risk, high-reward draft selection. 

Ryan Weathers, NYY

Injuries have been a problem for Ryan Weathers, who hasn’t logged 100 innings throughout his five MLB seasons. In a small sample of 38 innings, Weathers posted a career-best swinging-strike rate (13.6%) after missing nearly 150 days (144) on the injured list for a strained forearm and lat strain. We saw Weathers’ four-seam velocity reach 96.9 mph in 2025, a career high. During a recent spring training outing, Weathers threw his four-seam harder, averaging 98.5 mph against the Nationals.

It might be scary for a pitcher with an extensive injury history to be ramping up their velocity early in spring training. However, we know that increased velocity can be beneficial from a whiff and weak contact standpoint. Notably, Weathers’ changeup and sinker were thrown over 1.5 mph harder in his recent spring training performance. Weathers made a pitch mix change by lowering his four-seam usage and bumping up sweeper usage. Monitor that adjustment, though it could be small-sample noise. 

The main concern for the changeup would be losing downward movement with the additional velocity. Theoretically, it could lead to fewer whiffs, especially to right-handed hitters. For context, Weathers’ changeup elicited a 20.7% swinging-strike rate, over five percentage points above the league average.

In Weathers’ spring training outing, he tinkered with throwing more sweepers, particularly to lefties (45%). Weathers threw sweepers 27.8% of the time in 2025, but we saw him experiment with heavy sweeper usage at 35.1% in 2024 against left-handed hitters. That would be an optimal approach because Weathers’ sweeper remains one of his best pitches, allowing a .221 wOBA (.153 xwOBA). Interestingly, the changeup was relatively effective against lefties (.250 wOBA, .184 xwOBA). Weathers threw his changeup more against left-handed hitters in 2025 (18.3%) across a small sample, up from 10.8% in 2024. 

Weathers has been going past pick 200 as one of the final picks in drafts. Expect his ADP to rise, but the price bakes in the injury risk for a potential breakout season in 2026. The increased velocity, pitch mix change and improved team context support the upside scenario. 

Trevor Rogers, BAL

We need to go back to 2021, when Trevor Rogers had an ERA under 4.00, before the 1.18 ERA in 2025. There will be a regression for Rogers, given his 3.56 xERA. The four-seam velocity improved to 93.1 mph in 2025, up from 91.9 mph in 2024 and much closer to the 93-95 mph before that. Rogers boasts an above-average 12.7% swinging-strike rate, headlined by his slider (17.6%) and changeup (14.3%).

The changeup used to be nastier, with peak seasons generating a 20% swinging-strike rate (2023) compared to a career average at 15.4%. Rogers’ changeup possesses an above-average movement profile, similar to the peak seasons for whiffs. That suggests there’s a good chance Rogers’ changeup whiffs bounce back to the near-elite levels in 2026.

Interestingly, his changeup has been decent but not dominant against right-handed hitters, particularly in terms of contact quality. That’s evident in Rogers’ changeup, which allowed a .248 wOBA (.308 xwOBA) in 2025, slightly better than in 2024 (.334 wOBA, .300 xwOBA). We typically find changeups being effective against opposite-handed hitters, especially if they can generate whiffs. Overall, Rogers tends to locate the changeup well, low and below the zone against righties.

However, it’s worth highlighting Rogers’ changeup found success against left-handed hitters (.166 wOBA, .244 xwOBA, 17% swinging-strike rate) in the small sample of 136 changeups over the past two seasons (2024-2025). Since Rogers throws from a low arm angle (22 degrees), his sinker seems to tunnel with the changeup and fade toward his arm side at an above-average rate. However, Rogers tends to struggle with the sinker command, given the sporadic heatmaps and inconsistent outcomes over the past two seasons. 

Rogers added a sweeper in 2025, throwing it 11% of the time versus left-handed hitters and 6.4% of the time against righties. The sweeper is a slower version of the slider, with downward movement that’s nearly identical, yet sweeps over two inches toward his glove side compared to the slider. Although it’s Rogers’ fifth-most-used pitch against either side of the plate, it provides something different, more toward his glove side than the rest of his arsenal. 

Rogers already showed us the potential ace-like upside in 2025 across 109 innings. Assuming the outcomes regress, there are still above-average strikeout skills. We could argue that Rogers already broke out in 2025, but the draft price around pick 150 suggests drafters don’t believe in sustainable success in 2026. Prioritize Rogers as a potential full-season breakout starting pitcher where he significantly outperforms his projected value. 

Emmet Sheehan, LAD

Like Rogers, some might say Emmet Sheehan already broke out in 2025 after a 73-inning sample with a 2.82 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 23% K-BB%, and 16.2% swinging-strike rate. That’s near-elite upside for a starting pitcher, though it’s a limited sample throughout his MLB career. We can’t emphasize enough how rare it is to find a starting pitcher with a swinging-strike rate at 16% or higher. In 2025, Sheehan trailed Tarik Skubal (16.8%) as the only two starting pitchers with a 16% swinging-strike rate, with a minimum of 50 innings pitched.

For context, Blake Snell (16.3%) and Garrett Crochet (16.2%) reached that mark in 2024, with Spencer Strider (18.9%) and Tyler Glasnow (16.4%) as the only two in 2023 with a swinging-strike rate at 16% or higher. During Sheehan’s debut season, his slider (19.6%) and changeup (22%) were nasty pitches in terms of swinging-strike rate. For context, the slider and changeup were 3-7 percentage points above the league average in swinging-strike rate.

However, we saw Sheehan’s slider take a step forward, eliciting a 23.3% swinging-strike rate. Meanwhile, Sheehan’s changeup regressed to a 13.6% swinging-strike rate in 2025. Sheehan threw from a higher arm angle (35 degrees) in 2025 compared to 30 degrees in 2023. That coincided with Sheehan’s changeup losing over 4 inches of arm side fade. Thankfully, Sheehan continued to find success via the changeup against left-handed hitters, allowing a .155 wOBA (.201 xwOBA) in 2025.

If Sheehan’s slider and changeup can be above-average pitches for whiffs and weak contact, that would unlock another level. That’s mainly because he already throws a four-seamer that added over 2 inches of induced vertical break (17.9 inches). Sheehan’s four-seam went from mediocre to above-average in IVB in 2025, as a heater he locates in the upper third of the zone. 

Sheehan’s strikeout skills can reach those near-elite levels, though it’s a matter of health and volume for him in 2026. Assuming the ratios regress, Sheehan should have a breakout season where he hits career highs across most categories, even if it’s on a per-inning basis. That said, drafters haven’t been sleeping on Sheehan, as he currently holds an ADP of 155.3, and that could climb.

Nick Lodolo, CIN

Nick Lodolo had his best season in 2025, but the draft market has been cautious on him heading into 2026. Maybe it’s because Lodolo’s skills have been consistent (boring) and his home park remains in Cincinnati (one of the best hitter’s parks in MLB), but there are several aspects to like in Lodolo as an SP2 or SP3 with upside. Lodolo lowered his arm angle in 2025 (15 degrees) compared to around 19-22 degrees. That leads to Lodolo’s pitch movement profiles being heavier into horizontal movement. 

Lodolo’s changeup (14.1%) and curveball (19.5%) have been key pieces of his arsenal from a swinging-strike standpoint in 2025, similar to his career averages. Interestingly, Lodolo started throwing more changeups to right-handed hitters in 2025 (27.5%) compared to 2024 (20.2%). The changeup continued to be one of his better pitches against righties (.246 wOBA, .301 xwOBA) as one of three pitches, allowing a wOBA under .300, including the four-seam (.258 wOBA, .249 xwOBA) and curveball (.259 wOBA, .233 xwOBA).

Lodolo’s curveball has been his only pitch that moves toward his glove side, coming from a lower arm angle. He relied heavily on the curveball in 2025 (43.8%) compared to 2024 (37.3%) and 2023 (49.5%) against left-handed hitters. That aligns with the quality outcomes via the curveball against left-handed hitters, leading to a .263 wOBA (.166 xwOBA) in 2025 compared to a .271 wOBA (.180 xwOBA) in 2024. 

Interestingly, Lodolo continued to lower his arm angle when throwing the curveball from 18.8 degrees (2024) to 15.9 degrees (2025). He has been using a slightly lower vertical release point with the horizontal release fluctuating throughout his career. Although it’s unusual, Lodolo’s curveball has been his best pitch, ranking 13th in Stuff+ for curveballs among pitchers with 100 innings pitched. 

Chase Burns (127 ADP) has been garnering tons of love in the Reds’ starting rotation. However, don’t forget about Lodolo, who goes later in drafts, but hasn’t been valued as a potential breakout starting pitcher in 2026.

There were 24 relief pitchers who saw an increase by five or more save opportunities while converting five or more saves in 2025 compared to 2024. When we filter down to which relievers had 15 or more saves in 2025 than in 2024, the list shrinks to eight players. Relievers that met those thresholds include Andrés Muñoz, Aroldis Chapman, Cade Smith, Carlos Estévez, Daniel Palencia, Emilio Pagán, Jeff Hoffman and Will Vest. We have a mixture of relievers with closer experience seeing a higher workload and pitchers who consistently earned save chances with success in 2025.

[Draft your Yahoo Fantasy Baseball team for the 2026 MLB Season]

The visual below shows the relievers who met the previous threshold of five or more save opportunities and five or more saves in 2025 than in 2024:

On the flip side, the list of relievers who saw their save opportunities and conversions drop by five or more includes Camilo Doval, Emmanuel Clase, José Alvarado, Josh Hader, Kyle Finnegan, Mason Miller and Ryan Helsley. Alvarado was the only reliever with single-digit saves. Doval was leading the Giants in saves (15), though Ryan Walker ate into his save chances, with 10 in the first half of the season before Doval was traded to the Yankees.

Meanwhile, Clase missed the final two months after being investigated for alleged gambling charges, so Cade Smith took on a heftier load. Similar to Doval, Helsley was traded to another team (Mets), and he didn’t convert a save in the second half out of four chances. Helsley signed with the Orioles and should slide into the primary closer for the new team (more on him below). Similarly, Finnegan was traded from the Nationals to the Tigers. Finnegan logged four saves out of five chances in the second half of the season with the Tigers. 

This data reminds us that the closer market can have consistent players to target while understanding there can be volatility with trades, injuries and player struggles. We have several potential reliever targets, fades and sleepers to consider during draft season. 

More positional previews

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• First Base

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• Outfield

• Starting Pitcher

• Relief Pitcher

Proactive Picks

Ryan Helsley, Orioles (Yahoo ADP 140.5)

Ryan Helsley signed with the Orioles, filling a void with Félix Bautista undergoing shoulder surgery in August 2025. After a career season of 49 saves in 2024, the Cardinals traded Helsley to the Mets, leading to a significant role change. The 2025 ratios were awful for Helsley, though his 4.03 xERA and 15% swinging-strike suggested the skills still existed, with poor luck. Regression was expected for Helsley, though, after a 2.04 ERA, 3.52 xERA and an 18% swinging-strike rate in 2024.

Helsley’s slider was nasty, eliciting a 23.1% swinging-strike rate, as a pitch he throws often to right-handed hitters (52.7%) and lefties (41.8%). He throws a high-velocity, gyro-like slider that makes hitters chase it outside the zone, with a career 40.3% chase rate. We want at least one dominant pitch for a closer, which Helsley possesses. 

Meanwhile, Helsley’s four-seamer has been crushed against right-handed hitters (.526 wOBA, .455 xwOBA) and left-handed hitters (.471 wOBA, .375 xwOBA). That’s concerning because Helsley’s four-seam generates above-average induced vertical break while paired with above-average extension that comes from a high arm slot (62 degrees). He might be trying to pound the heater in the zone, expecting to find success, though he may benefit from lowering the zone rates. For context, Helsley threw the four-seamer in the zone 60 to 61% of the time over the past two seasons. 

If Helsley makes a small tweak to the four-seam locations, we will have more confidence in his dominance. Regardless, Helsley should be the leading closer option for the Orioles after they relied on Keegan Akin (8 saves), Dietrich Enns (2 saves), and Corbin Martin (2) with Bautista sidelined. 

Ryan Walker, Giants (Yahoo ADP 192.3)

Once Doval was traded, Ryan Walker had seven saves with Spencer Bivens (3) and Tristan Beck (2) being the other relievers with save conversions in the second half of the season. Walker comes at hitters from a low arm and cross-body approach, which likely involves volatility in his command. Interestingly, Walker’s swinging-strike rate fell to 9% in 2025 after being around 12-13% in the previous two seasons. That’s slightly concerning to have a reliever earning save chances with below-average stuff from a whiff standpoint.

Walker’s slider typically had been filthy, inducing an 18% swinging-strike rate throughout his career. Unfortunately, Walker’s slider swinging-strike rate fell to 12.8% in 2025. The slider’s pitch movement profiles hadn’t changed much, with 14-15 inches of glove-side sweep. There’s a good chance that the slider’s whiffs and results regressed based on the pitch locations.

When Walker left the slider in the zone, right-handed hitters were crushing it in 2025. That’s evident by Walker’s slider allowing a .294 wOBA (.307 xwOBA) in 2025 and a .256 wOBA (.271 xwOBA) in 2024 against right-handed hitters when thrown in the zone.

Nonetheless, with Doval gone, Walker should eat up the majority of the Giants’ save chances.

The one wild card involves the Giants having a new manager in Tony Vitello, who comes from the college ranks formerly as the coach at the University of Tennessee. Will Vitello rely on Walker or make it somewhat of a closer committee in San Francisco? Walker’s draft price is somewhat discounted, making him an interesting mid-round second closer to target.

Fades

Daniel Palencia, Cubs (Yahoo ADP 171.1)

The Cubs tried to lean on veteran Ryan Pressly as their closer in 2025, but he struggled and they turned to Daniel Palencia, who was one of the waiver-wire gems at the closer position in 2025. He dealt with a shoulder strain in early September, then returned later that month. There’s a chance Palencia could take another step forward in 2026, given the above-average 13.6% swinging-strike rate. Like other relievers, Palencia struggled with control, though his ball rate improved to 34% after being around 39-40% in the previous two seasons.

Palencia’s slider continues to headline his arsenal, with a 19.6% swinging-strike rate in 2025, compared to a career average of 21.5%. The slider added nearly three inches of downward movement in 2025, as a breaking ball that he throws low and away to right-handed hitters. Palencia’s slider generates whiffs and weak contact (.231 wOBA, .175 xwOBA) against right-handed hitters in 2025.

Unfortunately, left-handed hitters crushed Palencia’s slider (.383 wOBA, .313 xwOBA) and four-seamer (.352 wOBA, .366 xwOBA). That suggests Palencia needs an offering to suppress left-handed hitters or they’ll continue to do damage. He sprinkled in a splitter 38 times (8.6%) that allowed a .147 wOBA (.225 xwOBA) against lefties in 2025. It’s easier said than done, but it would benefit Palencia to work on developing a splitter to attack lefties.

That said, if Palencia struggles to find another pitch to address the issues against left-handed hitters, we could see the Cubs turn toward Phil Maton or Hunter Harvey. 

Trevor Megill, Brewers (Yahoo ADP 158.1)

Trevor Megill (6) and Abner Uribe (5) shared save chances in the second half of the 2025 season. Megill dealt with an elbow strain in late August, causing him to miss over one month before returning in late September. It’s concerning when a pitcher ends the season injured; hard to have injury optimism heading into the following season. That’s especially true with Megill, who averaged over one month on the injured list in four of the past five seasons.

Megill has been successful, compiling 51 saves over the past two seasons. The skills support Megill’s save chances, evidenced by a 32% ball rate and a nearly 15% swinging-strike rate over the past two seasons. Megill saw the ratios improve late in the 2025 season, with a slight uptick in his swinging-strike rate. We’re not denying Megill’s skills and recent track record, but there’s a good chance Megill misses time again in 2026, opening the door for Uribe. 

Uribe’s stuff finally led to save chances in 2025, though there should be some ratio regression, since he had a 2.80 xERA, over one run higher than his actual ERA (1.67). With Uribe’s sinker and slider mix, he provides that optimal groundball and strikeout approach. That’s evident in Uribe’s sinker generating a 64% groundball rate and the slider inducing a 19% swinging-strike rate. 

The draft market has been torn on Megill and Uribe, but we prefer to take a chance on Uribe since he possesses the stuff to generate whiffs and weak contact, without the injury history of Megill. 

Sleepers

Dennis Santana, Pirates (Yahoo ADP 181.9)

In the second half of the season, Dennis Santana had 10 of the 12 saves for the Pirates. They traded David Bednar to the Yankees, aligning with Santana earning save chances. Bednar struggled in 2024, and Aroldis Chapman stole save opportunities. Santana has been waiting for his chance, and he performed relatively well in 2025. 

He might be due for regression since he outperformed his expected ERA (3.96), with an actual ERA of 2.18. Santana showed better control, with a 30% ball rate in 2025 compared to a career ball rate at 34%. Meanwhile, Santana’s swinging-strike rate was above 13% again in 2025, suggesting there’s above-average stuff, but not near-elite. However, Santana does have one near-elite pitch for whiffs via the slider, given a 20.1% swinging-strike rate. 

As Santana should, he increased his slider usage to 46.4% in 2025, up from 32.3% in 2024. Santana made a 10 percentage point increase in usage to right-handed hitters (49.3%) with a 20-point jump to lefties (42.5%). Interestingly, Santana’s slider doesn’t have an above-average movement profile, yet it generates weak contact against righties (.207 wOBA, .222 xwOBA) and lefties (.225 wOBA, .270 xwOBA). 

That could suggest Santana commands his slider well since it doesn’t have a filthy movement profile. Or Santana’s slider keeps hitters guessing with another pitch having a similar profile, which can be seen via the induced movement profiles above. It’s probably a mixture of both factors, with the cutter being a harder-thrown version of the slider. Santana’s cutter elicits weak contact (.265 wOBA, .322 xwOBA) to right-handed hitters. However, Santana’s cutters tend to be less effective against lefties (.313 wOBA, .317 xwOBA) in 2025. 

Besides Bednar, Santana had the highest game leverage index on the Pirates, showing the team trusts him in high-leverage situations. Santana fits nicely as an RP2 for around 25 saves at a cheaper draft cost.

Pete Fairbanks, Marlins (Yahoo ADP 163.7)

Pete Fairbanks logged 20 or more saves for three consecutive seasons, though he earned 77% of the team’s saves in 2025, which was unusual. For context, Fairbanks had 45% of the team’s saves in 2024 and 60% of the team’s saves in 2023. It’s worth noting that Fairbanks has dealt with his fair share of injuries in 2023 and 2024, causing him to miss over one month in both seasons. Meanwhile, Fairbanks was healthy in 2025.

He signed with the Marlins in December on a one-year deal worth $13 million, so it’s a low-risk investment for the Marlins that they could move at the trade deadline. When healthy, Fairbanks typically performed well with the strikeout skills to support the outcomes. Fairbanks had a 12.8% swinging-strike rate in 2025, with a career low in 2024 (9.5%). However, Fairbanks boasted a swinging-strike rate north of 13% throughout his career. 

Interestingly, Fairbanks’s slider took a slight step back from a whiff standpoint, with a 13% swinging-strike rate in 2025 and 10.3% in 2024. That aligns with the overall dip in swinging-strike rate during the past two seasons. The slider’s movement profile suggests more whiffs on breaking pitch that generates 6.5 inches more downward movement than the average slider. Typically, we find pitches that possess more vertical movement tend to elicit more whiffs.

My guess would be slider locations might be an issue, though a reliever’s pitches can be volatile in smaller samples. Based on the slider heatmaps, it looks like he might be throwing it too often in the heart of the zone, which leads opposing hitters to wait on the slider. We’ve heard rumors that the Rays’ pitchers have been instructed to throw their best pitches in the heart of the zone, to see whether opposing hitters can hit them. Fairbanks may want to focus on a location adjustment for the slider if the high-end downward movement isn’t generating the expected whiffs.

The other concern involves Fairbanks having potential left-handed hitter problems. Left-handed hitters have been doing damage and making loud contact against the four-seamer over the past two seasons, with the slider being decent, but not dominant. That’s especially true since left-handed hitters have been crushing the heater, evidenced by a .341 wOBA (.376 xwOBA) in 2025 and a .379 wOBA (.369 xwOBA) in 2024. Fairbanks may want to develop the changeup that he hardly uses, with a career 18% swinging-strike rate. Furthermore, Fairbanks’s changeup allowed a .204 wOBA (.232 xwOBA) against left-handed hitters in a small sample of 40 pitches in 2025. 

The Marlins have been rotating relievers as their primary closer. A.J. Puk (15), Tanner Scott (12) and Dylan Floro (7) led the Marlins in saves in 2023. Scott (18) and Calvin Faucher (6) were the only two Marlins’ relievers with five or more saves in 2024. Then Faucher (15) led the team in saves with Ronny Henriquez (7) sneaking into the mix in 2025. Faucher still remains on the Marlins, but Fairbanks showed he can handle the majority of the team’s save opportunities with the Rays across multiple seasons. 

Griffin Jax/Edwin Uceta, Rays (Yahoo ADPs: 204, 203.3)

The Rays value stuff, as they rank second in Stuff+ behind the Phillies. Griffin Jax possesses near-elite stuff, evidenced by two primary pitches eliciting a swinging-strike rate above 21% via the slider (21.1%) and changeup (27%). Jax’s sweeper is nasty against right-handed hitters, allowing a .149 wOBA (.168 xwOBA). On the flip side, Jax’s changeup serves as a deadly option to lefties, with a .146 wOBA (.150 xwOBA).

Edwin Uceta could be in the mix for saves with Jax, making this a muddy reliever room to figure out. Uceta’s arsenal doesn’t grade well in Stuff models, likely because he throws from a lower arm angle (14 degrees), giving him a Luis Castillo-type arm slot. He throws two pitches with an above-average swinging-strike rate, including the four-seam (17.6%) and changeup (19.1%). 

With the lower armslot, Uceta’s changeup and four-seam seem to have reverse splits, where the changeup performs better against right-handed hitters (.191 wOBA, .258 xwOBA) and four-seam is better against lefties (.221 wOBA, .227 xwOBA).

Uceta’s draft price has been slightly lower than Jax’s. We’ll want to take shots at the Rays’ closer options, but don’t over-invest in either one.

Top-12 RP rankings

1. Mason Miller, Padres

2. Edwin Díaz, Dodgers

3. Cade Smith, Guardians

4. Andrés Muñoz, Mariners

5. Jhoan Duran, Phillies

6. Devin Williams, Mets

7. David Bednar, Yankees

8. Aroldis Chapman, Red Sox

9. Jeff Hoffman, Blue Jays

10. Ryan Helsley, Orioles

11. Raisel Iglesias, Braves

12. Ryan Walker, Giants