Prospect Information
College: Alabama
Height/Weight: 6’ 1’’/211
Hands: 9 3/8″
Age: 23 (at the time of the 2026 season opener)
Important NFL Combine/Pro Day Numbers
40-Yard Dash: N/A
Vertical Jump: N/A
Broad Jump: N/A
20-Yard Shuttle: N/A
3-Cone: N/A
Model Overview — Why the Model Likes This Profile
My Quarterback Rookie Model evaluates quarterback prospects through several traits that historically translate to fantasy production. The model weighs passing efficiency growth curves, big-time throw creation, vertical passing ability, turnover avoidance, rushing production, physical thresholds and expected draft capital.
Quarterbacks who combine strong passing efficiency with vertical aggression and even modest rushing production historically produce the most reliable fantasy outcomes.
Simpson’s profile checks several of those boxes. His passing efficiency, strong touchdown-to-interception ratio and functional mobility create a balanced quarterback profile capable of producing fantasy value primarily through passing production.
The model sees Simpson as a quarterback whose ceiling depends on the offensive environment but whose profile aligns with quarterbacks that have historically developed into stable NFL starters.
Model Derived Metrics
BMI: 26.7
Functional Athleticism Score (QB model): 0.52
Simpson fits the physical profile of the modern pocket passer who can extend plays when necessary. While he is not a rushing-driven quarterback, he possesses enough mobility to navigate pressure and generate occasional scrambling production.
Quarterbacks with this profile historically generate fantasy value primarily through passing efficiency rather than rushing volume.
Efficiency Metrics
Adjusted Completion Percentage: 75.0% (43rd of 175)
Average Depth of Target: 8.7 (T-95th of 175)
Big Time Throw Rate: 6.2% (T-21st of 175)
Turnover Worthy Play Rate: 2.7% (T-55th of 175)
Drop Rate: 9.3% (T-135th of 175)
Pressure-to-Sack Conversion Rate: 18.8% (109th of 175)
Average Time to Throw: 2.94 seconds (T-141st of 175)
QB Rating: 103.2 (31st of 175)
Passing Production
2025
Games: 14
Completions/Attempts: 294 / 458
Completion Percentage: 64.2%
Passing Yards: 3,494
Yards per Attempt: 7.6
Passing Touchdowns: 28
Interceptions: 5
Dropbacks: 522
Sacks: 30
Sack Rate: 5.7%
Big Time Throws: 30 (6.2%)
Turnover Worthy Plays: 15 (2.7%)
2024
Games: 4
Completions/Attempts: 14 / 25
Completion Percentage: 56.0%
Passing Yards: 167
Yards per Attempt: 6.7
Passing Touchdowns: 0
Interceptions: 0
Dropbacks: 27
Sacks: 1
Sack Rate: 3.7%
Rushing Production
2025
Carries: 70
Rushing Yards: 292
Yards per Carry: 4.2
Rushing Touchdowns: 2
Scrambles: 33 for 207 yards
Designed Runs: 37 for 85 yards
2024
Carries: 8
Rushing Yards: 51
Yards per Carry: 6.4
Rushing Touchdowns: 1
While Simpson is not a dual-threat quarterback, he provides a modest rushing floor through scrambling ability and occasional designed runs.
Positive Indicators
Efficient passing profile
Simpson’s 28:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio reflects one of the cleaner passing profiles in the class.
Controlled aggression
The 6.2% big-time throw rate highlights a quarterback capable of pushing the ball downfield rather than functioning purely as a game manager.
Starter-level workload
Handling over 500 dropbacks in 2025 demonstrates the ability to operate a high-volume passing offense.
Areas of Concern
Time to throw
A 2.94-second average time to throw is slower than that of many NFL starters, raising questions about processing speed against NFL pressure.
Rushing ceiling
Simpson’s mobility helps stabilize his fantasy floor, but it does not project to drive elite fantasy upside.
System dependence
Because his fantasy production will rely heavily on passing volume, landing spot and offensive philosophy will significantly influence his fantasy outcomes.
Historical Model Comps
Justin Herbert
Mitch Trubisky
Jarrett Stidham
Kirk Cousins
Mac Jones
These quarterbacks represent a similar archetype: efficient pocket passers whose fantasy production is driven primarily through passing volume rather than rushing production.
Historical Fantasy Tier Outcomes
Elite QB1: 4.44%
Starter QB1: 18.57%
QB2: 30.00%
Bust / Backup: 46.99%
Historically, quarterbacks with Simpson’s statistical and athletic profile most often develop into either mid-tier starters or depth quarterbacks. While the elite fantasy outcome exists, the most common path is a quarterback who provides QB2-level production if he earns and maintains a starting role.
Early Career Fantasy Outlook
Most likely trajectory
Year 1: QB24–QB30
Year 2–3: QB18–QB26
This range reflects the most common outcome for quarterbacks with Simpson’s statistical and athletic profile. If he earns and maintains a starting role, his fantasy production would most likely land in the low-end QB2 range with occasional streaming value depending on matchup and offensive environment.
Dynasty Translation
Simpson profiles as a quarterback whose fantasy value will be driven primarily through passing efficiency rather than rushing production.
Quarterbacks with this archetype historically develop into stable QB2 options with occasional QB1 seasons in pass-heavy offenses.
If Simpson lands in an aggressive passing environment, his statistical profile suggests he could outperform the typical expectations for quarterbacks without rushing-driven fantasy production.
