NBA Panic Meter Power Rankings: Which teams should be most concerned about the first round — and the future?

The first round of the 2026 NBA playoffs has been so wild that they demand some power rankings in one form or another. We cannot sit idly by while the top-seeded Detroit Pistons are in danger of losing in the opening round or Nikola Jokić’s Denver Nuggets face elimination. We have to sort them, putting some order into the chaos.

So, we decided on Panic Meter Power Rankings, sorting the 16 teams from least to most concerned about their first-round series, about the future — about everything.

The NBA’s defending champions hold a 3-0 series lead against the eighth seed. It would be shocking if they were to lose a game in the first round. That said, they are not without concern, as Jalen Williams is week-to-week with a left hamstring strain. Not that they need him against Phoenix. But hamstring strains are no joke. They tend to linger, especially for someone who has experienced lingering injuries all season.

The Celtics took both games in Philadelphia, including Game 4 by 32 points — their second 32-point win of the series — and carry a 3-1 lead back to Boston on Tuesday. It looks like it’s shaping up to be OKC/Boston. The most likely outcome, it appears, and BetMGM agrees, is that the last two champs meet in the NBA Finals. That hasn’t happened since 2018.

The Spurs hold a 3-1 lead, and the only one they lost was the one in which Victor Wembanyama smacked his chin against the hardwood, suffering a concussion. He’s back now, as good as ever, finishing a +28 in 34 minutes of a decisive Game 4 win. Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper are incredible. They are the best young nucleus in the game, and that includes the Thunder. They just have to keep Wemby healthy.

The Lakers should hope Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves return soon, because if Kevin Durant beats them back, the Rockets could get on a roll that Los Angeles does not want to be a part of. And, yes, I am implying that they could become the first team ever to lose a series when leading 3-0. These Rockets have it in them, if they can just catch fire, but the return of Dončić or Reaves should pour water on them.

What do the Blazers have to worry about? Sure, they will lose to the Spurs, probably in five games. But nobody figured them for the second round anyhow. A lot of folks didn’t have them penciled in for the seventh seed, either. But Deni Avdija is a Playoff Guy, as his downhill game translates to a postseason style of play. And they have the defense, too. They just need one more (big) piece. Will a new owner spend to get it?

The Magic were left for dead two weeks ago. Coach Jamahl Mosley was sure to be fired. But they have resuscitated themselves. They dominated the Hornets in the second play-in tournament game and stole a 2-1 lead against the top-seeded Pistons in the first round, looking a lot like the team everyone expected at the start of the season, tough and connected. Would an upset be enough to save Mosley’s job?

The Suns outperformed expectations all season. They’ve just met a Thunder team that is deeper and better constructed. They found something in Jordan Ott, a coach who instilled a winning culture when there was none. Same goes for Dillon Brooks. He brought an attitude to this team. Now, they need more talent. How they get it without control of their draft picks and much financial flexibility is another question.

The Raptors managed to even things up in their first-round series with the Cavaliers, and that’s all anyone could ask for in Toronto, where they have a ton of good players and not a great one. Giannis Antetokounmpo, anyone? The Blazers, who should make a run at the two-time MVP, will have competition for his services. But first Toronto must finish a first-round series, where a win would be gravy on a wholesome season.

The Hawks, without Trae Young, whom they traded for scraps, are locked in a 2-2 series with the third-seeded Knicks. One of those scraps was the expiring contract of CJ McCollum, who has earned a new contract in Atlanta. Might they be a Giannis suitor? The playoffs have certainly boosted the market for the superstar’s services. Can the Hawks bounce back from a blowout in Game 4 to extend their audition even further?

The Sixers have performed about as well as could have been expected, given the fact they weren’t even guaranteed a playoff spot. They have largely been without Joel Embiid, whose contract may be the worst in the league. He returned for Game 4, but his inability to play defense two weeks from an appendectomy was not a shock. Philadelphia continues to ride with Embiid, for better or worse. Mostly worse.

The Knicks, whose owner James Dolan issued a Finals-or-bust ultimatum this season, do not look like serious title contenders, as they are deadlocked with the Hawks through four games. Coach Mike Brown’s offense is sputtering at times, and there are inherent defensive issues within the pick-and-roll combination of Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns. They have limitations, and they are hitting them.

Yes, the Timberwolves hold a 3-1 lead over the Nuggets. And, yes, they have played a terrifying brand of defense against the NBA’s 2023 champions. But they lost Donte DiVincenzo for the remainder of the season to an Achilles tear and Anthony Edwards for multiple weeks to a knee injury. Games 5 and 7 are in Denver. Even if they can survive, what chance do they have of competing against San Antonio sans Edwards?

Cavaliers owner Dan Gilbert did not issue an ultimatum, but everyone knows the deal. If this core cannot make the conference finals, it has no chance of staying together next season. The Cavs already flipped 26-year-old Darius Garland for a 36-year-old James Harden, and if that doesn’t work out — especially if the Cavs lose in the first round — that could spell disaster in Cleveland. Yet, three teams have it worse.

Barring the first comeback from a 3-0 series deficit in the NBA, the Rockets will lose to a Lakers team that is missing both Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves. There is shame in losing to a 41-year-old LeBron James, even if Kevin Durant has missed three of the four games in the series. Big changes are on the horizon in Houston. Could head coach Ime Udoka be the first to go in the event of a first-round exit?

The Nuggets lost Game 4 to a Timberwolves team that had lost DiVincenzo and Edwards to injury over the course of the evening, falling behind 3-1 in their series. They still have a shot, but they are too dependent on Aaron Gordon’s health to seriously consider navigating the gauntlet that is Minnesota, San Antonio and Oklahoma City. They are failing Jokić, and that cannot happen. Major shakeup in Denver, too?

The Pistons had a flaw and failed to address it. They could have chased Michael Porter Jr. or Lauri Markkanen or someone who could create when defenses collapse onto Cade Cunningham. But they rode with their roster, and now they’re facing a 2-1 deficit against an Orlando team that has just looked better than them. Might the East pass the Pistons by without them ever getting a chance to compete?

Fantasy Baseball 2-Start Pitcher Rankings: Look for help where you can with slim picking on the waiver wire

This is the weakest group of two-start pitchers to this point in 2026, and many managers will want to instead dip into the one-start list. On the hitting side, the Mets and Orioles should provide short-term help, especially at catcher and in the outfield.

Randy Vásquez, Padres, 60% (vs. CHC, vs. CWS): Armed with an uptick in velocity, Vásquez is having his best season. The 27-year-old has allowed one or zero runs in four of five starts, while compiling an impressive 30:8 K:BB ratio. I normally omit pitchers with a roster rate over 50%, but with a dearth of options this week, I wanted to ensure that those in shallow leagues recognize Vásquez as their top target.

Steven Matz, Rays, 23% (@ CLE, vs. SF): Matz ended a string of three effective starts when he allowed four earned runs over three innings last time out. He did everything in that start that he doesn’t usually do — allow multiple homers and issue too many (4) walks. The lefty has favorable matchups this week, as the Giants rank 29th in baseball in runs scored and the Guardians are an average matchup for southpaws. In a weak group, Matz can be started in 12-team leagues.

Jack Leiter, Rangers, 36% (vs. NYY, @ DET): A former elite prospect who logged solid results (3.86 ERA, 1.28 WHIP) in his first full season, Leiter was expected to take another step forward this year. So far, it hasn’t happened. His strikeout and walk rate are slightly better than they were last season, with his struggles stemming from an unfortunate .338 BABIP. There is reason to believe that Leiter will eventually turns things around, but a pair of challenging matchups makes him a fringe option in 12-team leagues.

Dustin May, Cardinals, 21% (@ PIT, vs. LAD): May hasn’t pitched as poorly as is suggested by his 5.84 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. He has been plagued by a .395 BABIP and a 64.2% strand rate despite allowing normal marks in average exit velocity and barrel rate. The righty has a solid 20:5 K:BB ratio, and his turnaround is already underway, as he has allowed exactly one earned run in each of his past three starts. Although the matchup against the Dodgers is reason for pause, May can still be considered in 12-team leagues.

Tyler Mahle, Giants, 5% (@ PHI, @ TB): Mahle is coming off his best start to the season — seven shutout innings against the mighty Dodgers. This was the second time in five starts that he held an opponent scoreless, but he has also endured outings where he allowed five and eight earned runs. Mahle will need to improve his 26:14 K:BB ratio before he becomes more than a streamer, and his reasonable matchups this week make him a fringe option in 15-team leagues.

Connor Prielipp, Twins, 8% (vs. SEA, vs. TOR): Although he needed 82 pitches to finish four innings in his MLB debut, Prielipp had a successful start by allowing just two runs and producing a 6:0 K:BB ratio. The lefty did not fare well in the minors last year, but he was off to a solid start in Triple-A this season (2.30 ERA, 1.21 WHIP). While it’s too early to add him in most formats, Prielipp can be considered in 15-team leagues.

[Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire: Hitters to target this week]

Chad Patrick, Brewers, 16% (vs. ARI, @ WSH): Wise fantasy managers will look past Patrick’s 2.35 ERA and stay away due to his underlying skills. The right-hander has logged a lowly 11:8 K:BB ratio and has made it through five innings in just two of his five starts. The Nats rank third in runs scored, while the D-backs place ninth, and the difficult matchups are the final reason to leave him on the waiver wire.

Jack Kochanowicz, Angels, 15% (@ CWS, vs. NYM): By getting oodles of groundballs, Kochanowicz can sometimes limit the damage of an inability to record strikeouts (career 5.1 K/9 rate). But as is evidenced by his 5.39 ERA and 1.50 WHIP, his recipe doesn’t usually lead to success. Although his matchups are reasonable, the righty belongs on waivers.

In order, here are the best streamers for the week, with their start date and Yahoo roster rate in brackets.

  • Kyle Harrison @ WSH (Saturday, 32%)

  • Andrew Painter vs. SF (Thursday, 29%)

  • Max Meyer vs. PHI (Saturday, 24%)

  • JR Ritchie vs. DET (Wednesday, 23%)

  • Grant Holmes vs. DET (Thursday, 29%)

  • Davis Martin vs. LAA (Tuesday, 39%)

  • Foster Griffin vs. MIL (Saturday, 28%)

  • Rhett Lowder @ PIT (Saturday, 29%)

  • Carmen Mlodzinski vs. CIN (Friday, 15%)

  • Joey Cantillo @ ATH (Friday, 42%)

  • Nick Martinez @ CLE (Tuesday, 15%)

  • Keider Montero vs. TEX (Saturday, 10%)

Mets vs. Nationals: A series against three subpar right-handed starters from a Washington pitching staff that may be the worst in baseball could be just what the doctor ordered for New York’s disappointing lineup. Left-handed hitters Brett Baty (7%) and Carson Benge (10%) are in prime position to take advantage of this opportunity. Additionally, Francisco Alvarez (33%) is a good option for those who are streaming catchers.

Orioles vs. Astros: Baltimore has good timing, facing a decimated Astros pitching staff that ranks last in baseball in ERA. With Houston starting right-handers in all three games, lefty swinging outfielder Dylan Beavers (2%) should hit in the heart of the lineup. Samuel Basallo (22%) has yet to reach his potential but has a real opportunity to shine in this series.

Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire: Jac Caglianone, Josh Jung and more pickups for Week 6 based on advanced stats

In most instances, hitter pickups can give us a boost, but shouldn’t completely derail our lineups in daily or weekly formats. That’s different than streaming a pitcher, who destroys the ratios, which can become an uphill climb. It looks like we were a week late on Jeremiah Jackson, as he cooled off (0 HR, 1 SB, .217 BA). Thankfully, Jackson currently has consistent playing time. Meanwhile, we hit on Mickey Moniak (3 HR, .435 BA in 23 PA). 

We’ll examine the notable schedule notes, including the teams with seven games. Then we’ll discuss some shallow- and medium-sized leagues, plus deep-league waiver wire hitters to consider. 

Among the teams with the better pitching staffs based on the adjusted score, the Rays, Astros, Tigers and Reds saw a significant decline in their K-BB%. The Rays and Astros might be the most surprising, though struggles and injuries have impacted their rotations. Besides Drew Rasmussen, Steven Matz and Nick Martinez have been the Rays’ best starting pitchers from a skills standpoint. Meanwhile, the Tigers’ starting rotation has been fairly strong, with Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize and Keider Montero boasting a 17% K-BB% or higher. That said, Framber Valdez and Jack Flaherty have shown better skills in the past, which could bolster their rotation if and when they heat up.

Here’s a look at the teams with the best starting pitching so far in 2026.

Detroit faces the Braves for three and the Rangers for three in Week 6. Braves and Rangers hitters could heat up in Week 6, assuming we might not believe in Montero, Flaherty and Valdez. We have more confidence in the Cleveland and San Francisco hitters facing the Rays for three games each. The Guardians project to face Matz, Martinez and Rasmussen with Shane McClanahan, Jesse Scholtens and Matz in the latter half of the week. 

Here’s a look at the teams with the worst starting pitching so far this season.

Somehow, the Nationals, White Sox, Cardinals and Athletics pitchers became worse. All those teams have a single-digit K-BB% in 2026. That aligns with the Nationals, White Sox, Cardinals and Athletics pitchers having poor expected ERA metrics, such as SIERA and xERA. The Mets face the Nationals and Angels, both of which have two of the worst pitching staffs. However, José Soriano and Reid Detmers have been revelations for the Angels in 2026. It still looks like friendly matchups for the Mets’ hitters in Week 6. 

Most of the Dodgers’ hitters have been stable regarding lineup spots. However, they project to face the Marlins (3) and Cardinals (3), two of the worst pitching staffs in 2026. Like Dodgers’ hitters, the Brewers have juicy matchups in Week 6, including three against the Diamondbacks and three at the Nationals. Milwaukee projects to face Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodríguez and Mike Soroka in the first half, then Jake Irvin, Foster Griffin and Zack Littell. 

With only three teams playing seven games in Week 6 and zero teams playing five, most will play six. 

  • Twins (3 vs. SEA, 4 vs. TOR)

    • It’s likely a tough early slate against Logan Gilbert and George Kirby for the Twins. It’s a mixed bag later in the week with Dylan Cease, Patrick Corbin, Kevin Gausman and Trey Yesavage, who expects to return this week. Could be a tough week for Twins’ hitters, though volume will be in their favor. 

  • Pirates (4 vs. STL, 3 vs. CIN)

    • Pirates’ hitters have favorable matchups against the Cardinals’ pitchers, one of the worst in MLB. Maybe this is the week Konnor Griffin heats up after hitting his first home run on his 20th birthday. 

  • Cardinals (4 at PIT, 3 vs. LAD)

    • I initially wanted to recommend picking up a Cardinals’ hitter based on volume. One of them being Masyn Winn. However, Winn lacks some of the fantasy juice we’re looking for, though there could be some batting average and counting stats. The first four games against the Pirates might be challenging, as they project to face Braxton Ashcraft, Bubba Chandler, Paul Skenes and Mitch Keller. There will be some volatility against the Dodgers in the latter half of the week against Emmet Sheehan, Roki Sasaki and Justin Wrobleski. 

  • Blue Jays (3 vs. BOS, 4 at MIN)

    • This looks like a fun week for Blue Jays’ hitters, facing the Red Sox and Twins’ pitchers, who have been struggling in multiple categories. They project to matchup against Ranger Suárez, Peyton Tolle and Brayan Bello in the first part of the week. Look for Blue Jays’ hitters to feast against Connor Prielipp, Simeon Woods Richardson and Bailey Ober. 

The Royals have faced six left-handed starting pitchers in 2026. Caglianone started against two of them. Though we haven’t seen the expected power surge, his .373 BABIP has been fueling the early batting average. The Royals project to face five out of six right-handed starting pitchers in Week 6. The first half of the week will be played away from home at the Athletics, potentially turning into a productive three-game slate, though he faces one lefty. 

Caglianone’s power inputs have been near-elite, hinting at home runs coming soon. That’s evident by Caglianone’s 76 mph bat speed, fourth-best mph Exit Velocity 50 or EV50 and 9.1% barrel per plate appearance rate. EV50 is a better marker for power skills than average exit velocity since it accounts 50% of the player’s hardest hit batted balls. 

Keep being patient and stream him with those right-handed heavy matchups. Or go buy low in a trade. 

This should be a good week for Brewers’ hitters across the board since they face two of the worst pitching teams (ARI and WAS). The Brewers project to face four right-handed starting pitchers out of six games, but the matchups could outweigh the volume for Mitchell and Bauers, as strong-side platoon options. Milwaukee projects to face one lefty in each three-game series against the Diamondbacks and Nationals.

Bauers has been providing power (5 HR) and speed (3 SB) with strong bat speed (76.2 mph) and the 29th-highest EV50. Look for Bauers to hit a couple of home runs in Week 6 with those juicy matchups against the Diamondbacks and Nationals. 

Here’s a look at the top hitters based on EV50 so far in the 2026 MLB season.

There are a few wild stats in Mitchell’s profile, including a .441 BABIP, walk rate north of 20% and 61.4% contact rate. That tells us Mitchell might be luckier, though there has been strong bat speed (76.6 mph) with the 11th-best EV50 in 2026. Meanwhile, Mitchell has five stolen bases with a high stolen base opportunity rate (26%). Injuries have been problematic for Mitchell in the past, but he possesses the tools we like in fantasy. 

Both Bauers and Mitchell can be deep-league streams for power and speed. 

Friedl projects to face five out of six right-handed starting pitchers in Week 6. The Reds play the Rockies in Cincinnati, then three games at Pittsburgh. There’s no denying Friedl has been awful to start (.188 BA, 1 HR, 4 SB). He hit his first home run on Saturday against the Tigers, as his second three-hit game of the season. 

Friedl played in two early games against left-handed starting pitchers, but sat in the last four versus lefties. Thankfully, Friedl remains in the leadoff spot in a strong-side platoon role, helping with potential volume. Friedl has been unlucky from a BABIP (.239) standpoint compared to his .280 career BABIP. 

Friedl should be productive in Week 6 for batting average and speed, especially against the Rockies for the first half of the week.

It’s nice to see Jung healthy after missing significant time in 2023 and 2024. Jung’s 82.7% contact rate increased from 77.1% (2025), coinciding with his swinging-strike rate dipping by three points (8.2%). That helps Jung maintain a better batting average in 2026 (.308) compared to a .258 career BA. If Jung can maintain a higher batting average with league-average power, that’s a sneaky value increase. 

The Rangers face the Yankees for three games and the Tigers for three games. Jung might struggle early in the week since the Yankees have one of the best pitching staffs early in 2026, ranking first in Pitching+. However, Texas will face beatable options for the Tigers (Jack Flaherty, Keider Montero and Casey Mize) in the latter half of the week. 

If you’re struggling at third base or need volume for counting stats and batting average, target Jung off the waiver wire. 

Vargas was an early-season dynasty pickup for me in a deep league, though it felt like a short-term play. This is Vargas’s 10th MLB season (34 years old) and he’s already tied his career high in home runs (6) in 2026. With Diamondbacks’ hitter injuries to Carlos Santana, Pavin Smith and Gabriel Moreno, Vargas has been a stable force in their lineup. Vargas played mostly at first and second base this season, hitting in the middle of the lineup.

Here’s a look at the batting stats for Ildemaro Vargas from 2024-2026.

Vargas’s .365 BABIP has been fueling his .367 batting average. It’s hard to compare seasons because Vargas compiled over 300 plate appearances once in 2024. He does put the ball into play with a strong 86.8% contact rate and a 6% swinging-strike rate throughout his career. The main difference for Vargas involves him pulling the ball in the air (29.2%) in 2026, nearly double his career average (15.6%). Meanwhile, Vargas’s 6.5% barrel per plate appearance rate in 2026 tripled his career average (2.2%).

Continue riding the heat wave with Vargas for batting and power, especially with his projectable volume in the lineup.  

Munetaka Murakami has stolen the highlight show for the White Sox, but don’t sleep on Miguel Vargas. He already has five home runs and five stolen bases, yet only a .204 batting average. Vargas can be a value in leagues that award OBP (.353) and points because of his ability to take walks (16.4% walk rate) and find his way on base. His bat speed increased by over 2 mph (72.9 mph), aligning with a 8.6% barrel rate per plate appearance. Both are career bests for Vargas in 2026.

Here’s a look at the bat speed of Miguel Vargas over the past three seasons.

The White Sox play the Angels and Padres in Week 6, including questionable options like Jack Kochanowicz, Yusei Kikuchi, Germán Márquez and Randy Vasquez. Vargas should be a nice source of power to add off waivers in shallow-to-medium leagues. He tends to be more valuable in leagues that count OBP and points for walks toward their scoring. 

Baty projects to face two of the worst pitching staffs in Week 6, including five out of six right-handed starting pitchers. With the Mets losing often recently, they only have one player with a wRC+ over 100 (Francisco Alvarez). Baty possesses high-end bat speed (75 mph) and struggles to make consistent contact (73.4% contact rate). Though groundballs can be an issue with a career 51.6% groundball rate, Baty crushes the ball when it’s in the air. 

That’s evident in Baty’s 96.1 mph average exit velocity on flyballs and line drives, similar to Pete Alonso, Junior Caminero and Yordan Alvarez. The Mets face the Nationals to begin the week, and the Nationals allow the second-highest home run rate (HR/F). Meanwhile, the Angels limit home runs, ranking 27th in HR/F, mainly because they induce groundballs. 

Baty can be a source of power in Week 6 in deeper formats. 

The Rangers face right-handed starting pitchers in five out of six games in Week 6, including three at home against the Yankees and three at Detroit. Carter has hit a home run and stolen at least one base in each of the past three weeks. He might fare better in points and OBP leagues, given his 15.3% walk rate and weak .207 batting average. Carter could benefit from being less passive, given his 19.6% chase rate, but that pairs well with his plate discipline. 

Volume matters in deeper leagues, which Carter should provide as a strong-side platoon option.

If your team needs steals, Nuñez is the target. The Nationals rank third in stolen bases (31), with Nuñez accounting for 13 of them. Nuñez’s batting average has been brutal, but he puts the ball into play often with a strong 78.4% contact rate. Thankfully, Nuñez ranks high in the defensive metrics (84th percentile Outs Above Average), keeping his bat in the lineup even if he struggles at the plate. 

His elite sprint speed (99th percentile) paired with his ridiculously high 53% stolen base opportunity rate, makes him a viable option to stream stolen bases.