Missouri defeats Arkansas 6-1 for first SEC home win since 2024

It had been 715 days since Missouri baseball had last tasted a Southeastern Conference victory at Taylor Stadium. 1,491 days marked the last time the Tigers had bested Arkansas. Both of those streaks ended in Mizzou’s 6-0 victory on Saturday afternoon at Taylor Stadium.

Another monkey off the Tigers’ back? Their recent nine-game losing streak, which included eight losses in SEC play and one to in-state opposition, SIUE, reached its ultimate conclusion.

Based on this series alone, it would be easy for Tigers fans to anticipate or even triangulate what could go wrong after the first inning. After all, the Tigers’ 5-4 defeat in the series opener came after an early inning that included a pair of homers from Jase Woita and Blaize Ward. This game was different.

Right out of the blocks, Missouri’s offense sprinted out like Usain Bolt, starting with back-to-back singles from Woita and Durnin. A walk surrendered to Blaize Ward loaded the bases with nobody out, and Mateo Serna was hit by a pitch, which was not the most conventional way to put the first run of the game.

Kaden Peer reached base on a fielder’s choice, and Donovan Jordan’s groundout drove two more runs across the plate, giving the Tigers more hits and runs than they accumulated all of Friday evening against the Razorbacks pitching.

SEALS AND MAISONET MAKING IMPACT IN STYLE

The second inning came along, starting with an infield single by Eric Maisonet. Then walked up Pierre Seals. It had been one month and three days since the last time he had gone yard. That changed two pitches into his at-bat against Colin Fisher.

Seals watched, stood, and flipped his bat, and he slowly moved down the first-base line, knowing he had gotten much more than enough of the ball for it to travel out of Taylor Stadium. 425 feet over the left field wall to be exact, giving Mizzou a 5-0 cushion in the bottom half of the second.

“We all come up with all of these cool celebrations to do, and that’s great,” Jackson said. “The thing that was most important for me, he finally got the barrel on it. He’s a guy who’s constantly hitting things to the backside. When you have that power that he does and the bat speed he does, if he can get the barrel out more consistently, you’re gonna see more of that.”

As Jackson pointed out post-game, Seals, despite having hit four homers this year, has proven to be a power bat for the Tigers in Blue, Memphis. 10 home runs, 65 hits, and 33 RBI prove Seals can be a potent hitter when aggressively hitting towards the middle of the field.

On a day where the Tigers broke lots of negative streaks, Seals’ home run drought ended, as well as collecting a hit a piece over the last two games. after previously going hitless in his previous five.

“[Hitting the homer] was definitely big, because I feel like I’ve been hitting balls hard in the past couple of weeks and I didn’t have anything to show for it,” Seals said. “I kept going and kept my approach, and it was good to see it pay off.”

Eric Masionet, who wasn’t necessarily high in the home run column for Missouri this season coming into Saturday afternoon, made his mark in the bottom of the fourth. After connecting on a 1-0 pitch from Gabe Geckle, which admittedly didn’t look like it was leaving the yard, kept carrying.

Damian Ruiz jumped at the left field wall, the ball hit the top of the padding, and then the left field scoreboard. The Tigers were well and truly in the driver’s seat, up 6-0 in the bottom half of the fourth and hitting like a team that hadn’t been at the plate in nine games. No trepidation in the box, aggressive and having nothing to lose and everything to gain from besting a top-25 team in the country.

GONZALEZ AND VILLAREAL PUT UP ZEROS OVER 7.2 INNINGS

Gonzalez and Villareal stepped up not to the plate, but to the mound after an early re-aggravated injury occurred to Missouri’s starting pitcher JD Dohrman in the top of the second inning. 

“Its a groin injury,” Jackson said. “If it’s something you keep messing with it’ll never heal and he wasn’t quite feeling 100 percent so it’s better for us to pull him out and try to continue to put him on that rehab stretch and get him completely healed.” 

Gonzalez took Mizzou fans back to his outing earlier this month against an offensive powerhouse in Missouri State. Similar to his performance against the Bears, Gonzalez allowed zero earned runs and struck out a multitude of batters.

Gonzalez also became a U.S citizen earlier in the week and earning the victory after tossing five shutout innings capped off the series of good events for the right-hander.

“Its been a long process, Gonzalez said ”I came from Cuba, and, you know, got here to United States, and it was a long process, but being able to become a US citizen, it’s great. This country’s giving me everything, so I’m super happy and proud.“

Villarreal took over for Gonzalez after the sixth inning and continued the dominant outing from the Tigers relief staff. Villareal struck out three Razorbacks and pitched into the bottom of the ninth inning before surrendering a run and the bases being full of runners.

Jackson made the switch to the right-hander Sam Rosand, who’strikeout officially ended the long negative runs but not the work of playing more consistent baseball for Jackson.

“The relief for me is that we played good baseball, ”That’s the relief, regardless of if we would have not won or, like, I felt good on Thursday night because I thought we played good baseball. For me its ultimately it did we play good baseball, and by playing good baseball, can we continue to play good baseball… Yes I’m glad the streak is over but at the end of the day you can’t control whether you win or lose. If we do this consistently we’re going to win more than we lose.“

Missouri defeats Arkansas 6-1 for first SEC home win since 2024

It had been 715 days since Missouri baseball had last tasted a Southeastern Conference victory at Taylor Stadium. 1,491 days marked the last time the Tigers had bested Arkansas. Both of those streaks ended in Mizzou’s 6-0 victory on Saturday afternoon at Taylor Stadium.

Another monkey off the Tigers’ back? Their recent nine-game losing streak, which included eight losses in SEC play and one to in-state opposition, SIUE, reached its ultimate conclusion.

Based on this series alone, it would be easy for Tigers fans to anticipate or even triangulate what could go wrong after the first inning. After all, the Tigers’ 5-4 defeat in the series opener came after an early inning that included a pair of homers from Jase Woita and Blaize Ward. This game was different.

Right out of the blocks, Missouri’s offense sprinted out like Usain Bolt, starting with back-to-back singles from Woita and Durnin. A walk surrendered to Blaize Ward loaded the bases with nobody out, and Mateo Serna was hit by a pitch, which was not the most conventional way to put the first run of the game.

Kaden Peer reached base on a fielder’s choice, and Donovan Jordan’s groundout drove two more runs across the plate, giving the Tigers more hits and runs than they accumulated all of Friday evening against the Razorbacks pitching.

SEALS AND MAISONET MAKING IMPACT IN STYLE

The second inning came along, starting with an infield single by Eric Maisonet. Then walked up Pierre Seals. It had been one month and three days since the last time he had gone yard. That changed two pitches into his at-bat against Colin Fisher.

Seals watched, stood, and flipped his bat, and he slowly moved down the first-base line, knowing he had gotten much more than enough of the ball for it to travel out of Taylor Stadium. 425 feet over the left field wall to be exact, giving Mizzou a 5-0 cushion in the bottom half of the second.

“We all come up with all of these cool celebrations to do, and that’s great,” Jackson said. “The thing that was most important for me, he finally got the barrel on it. He’s a guy who’s constantly hitting things to the backside. When you have that power that he does and the bat speed he does, if he can get the barrel out more consistently, you’re gonna see more of that.”

As Jackson pointed out post-game, Seals, despite having hit four homers this year, has proven to be a power bat for the Tigers in Blue, Memphis. 10 home runs, 65 hits, and 33 RBI prove Seals can be a potent hitter when aggressively hitting towards the middle of the field.

On a day where the Tigers broke lots of negative streaks, Seals’ home run drought ended, as well as collecting a hit a piece over the last two games. after previously going hitless in his previous five.

“[Hitting the homer] was definitely big, because I feel like I’ve been hitting balls hard in the past couple of weeks and I didn’t have anything to show for it,” Seals said. “I kept going and kept my approach, and it was good to see it pay off.”

Eric Masionet, who wasn’t necessarily high in the home run column for Missouri this season coming into Saturday afternoon, made his mark in the bottom of the fourth. After connecting on a 1-0 pitch from Gabe Geckle, which admittedly didn’t look like it was leaving the yard, kept carrying.

Damian Ruiz jumped at the left field wall, the ball hit the top of the padding, and then the left field scoreboard. The Tigers were well and truly in the driver’s seat, up 6-0 in the bottom half of the fourth and hitting like a team that hadn’t been at the plate in nine games. No trepidation in the box, aggressive and having nothing to lose and everything to gain from besting a top-25 team in the country.

GONZALEZ AND VILLAREAL PUT UP ZEROS OVER 7.2 INNINGS

Gonzalez and Villareal stepped up not to the plate, but to the mound after an early re-aggravated injury occurred to Missouri’s starting pitcher JD Dohrman in the top of the second inning. 

“Its a groin injury,” Jackson said. “If it’s something you keep messing with it’ll never heal and he wasn’t quite feeling 100 percent so it’s better for us to pull him out and try to continue to put him on that rehab stretch and get him completely healed.” 

Gonzalez took Mizzou fans back to his outing earlier this month against an offensive powerhouse in Missouri State. Similar to his performance against the Bears, Gonzalez allowed zero earned runs and struck out a multitude of batters.

Gonzalez also became a U.S citizen earlier in the week and earning the victory after tossing five shutout innings capped off the series of good events for the right-hander.

“Its been a long process, Gonzalez said ”I came from Cuba, and, you know, got here to United States, and it was a long process, but being able to become a US citizen, it’s great. This country’s giving me everything, so I’m super happy and proud.“

Villarreal took over for Gonzalez after the sixth inning and continued the dominant outing from the Tigers relief staff. Villareal struck out three Razorbacks and pitched into the bottom of the ninth inning before surrendering a run and the bases being full of runners.

Jackson made the switch to the right-hander Sam Rosand, who’strikeout officially ended the long negative runs but not the work of playing more consistent baseball for Jackson.

“The relief for me is that we played good baseball, ”That’s the relief, regardless of if we would have not won or, like, I felt good on Thursday night because I thought we played good baseball. For me its ultimately it did we play good baseball, and by playing good baseball, can we continue to play good baseball… Yes I’m glad the streak is over but at the end of the day you can’t control whether you win or lose. If we do this consistently we’re going to win more than we lose.“

Nationals score at their Leasure in the 10th, beat White Sox, 6-3

Often a good number, but not when it’s how many walks you issued.

Perhaps the most memorable thing about this game from a White Sox perspective is that, according to the TV folks, it was only the second time since 1901 that four switch-hitting catchers appeared in the same game. Not much to that, you say? Well, it’s better than considering what happened on the field.

Want another anomaly? In the sixth inning, the Sox struck out not once, not twice, not thrice, but four times, the first a case of Miguel Vargas getting on via a third strike passed ball.

Noah Schultz pitched well, but not well enough. He did a terrific job getting out of a jam in the third, following a leadoff walk and double with two strikeouts and a grounder to short. But when Schultz started the fourth with two more walks and a wild pitch, both runners scored on a single by .179 hitter Nasim Nuñez to give Washington a 2-0 lead.

Schultz made it through six innings on a (very short) career-high 85 pitches, giving up four bases on balls and an equal number of hits and just the two runs while striking out a (very short) career-high eight. Meanwhile, though, Jake Irvin, who came into the game with an ERA of 6.00, was even better, walking none and allowing four hits and no runs while whiffing 10. He even had the first three K’s of the four-whiff inning.

Three Sox relievers kept it close, including new call-up Tyler Davis, who got two strikeouts in his first major league appearance. He did walk one, but maybe he just wanted to be part of the group. The fourth Sox reliever? Uh, well, we’ll get to that.

Nationals relievers did their best to try to hand the game back to the Sox via walks and hit batters and misplaying a bunt, which was to no avail until the eighth. It was then that Mitchell Parker walked Vargas and hit Colson Montgomery. Ex-Sox Gus Varland came in to give up an RBI single to Everson Pereira.

Chase Meidroth followed with a sac fly to knot the game, 2-2.

The Sox got two on via walks in the ninth — another attempted gift by the Nationals pen — but Montgomery struck out to end the threat. No matter how many gifts you’re offered, going 1-for-12 with runners in scoring position won’t help you much.

Then we arrive at the 10th, with Jordan Leasure on the mound. This is an apt time to scream, as usual, “Oh, no! Not him!” Leasure issued a walk and a single to load the bases, Manfred Man pushed to third. A passed ball by Drew Romo (just up from Charlotte to replace the DFAed Reese McGuire), on what looked like a cross-up from Leasure, let in one run. An intentional walk loaded the bases again. Leasure then walked Joey Weimer to force in a second run and make it 4-2, then gave up a two-run single to Nuñez, giving the shortstop (and No. 8 hitter) four RBIs on the afternoon.

Down 6-2, the Sox scored the free runner without any Washington effort to stop him, and 6-3 it ended.

It was a jammed house despite very cold weather thanks to a really cool jacket giveaway, but by the bottom of the 10th everybody had headed for warmth.

Thus, the White Sox are 11-16 and the series is tied at 1-1, with the decider at 1:10 p.m. Central tomorrow, Sean Burke and lefty Foster Griffin the scheduled starters.


Nasim Nunez is the unlikely hero in the Washington Nationals extra inning win

WASHINGTON, DC – APRIL 20: Nasim Nuñez #26 of the Washington Nationals bats against the Atlanta Braves at Nationals Park on April 20, 2026 in Washington, DC. (Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images) | Getty Images

For the last few weeks, the Nationals offense has been heavily reliant on James Wood and CJ Abrams. However, with Abrams out of the lineup, and Wood not having the best game, it was on the supporting cast to get the job done. Led by Nasim Nunez, the Nats were able to put six runs on the board and win the game in extra innings.

Nasim Nunez does a lot of great things on the baseball field. He is an incredibly smooth defender and is one of the best baserunners in the league when he gets on base. However, he is not known for his bat, and has gotten off to a pretty dreadful start at the plate. Even after this game, he is just hitting .195 with a .505 OPS. 

The great thing about this Nats offense though is that different guys have stepped up when needed. Today was Nunez’s time to shine. He drove in four runs on two ultra-clutch hits, including one in the 10th inning to break the game open. 

There have been times this season where Nunez seemed like he was trying to do too much. After shockingly hitting four home runs last September, Nunez may have fallen in love with his power too much. You could tell during some at bats that he really wanted to lift the ball. Today, he was not trying to do too much, which is when he is at his best. 

Nunez should be trying to get on base whatever way he can. Whether that is bunting or selling out for contact, putting the ball in play should be Nunez’s main focus. He still struck out twice today, but in the biggest moments, Nunez was staying within himself.

This game was not all about Nunez though. The other big hero was Jake Irvin, who had his best start of the season. Coming into this game, Irvin had an ERA of 6.00, but I thought he was pitching a lot better than he was last year. Today, the results matched his improved stuff. He had 16 whiffs, the most he has had in a game since June of 2024.

Seeing those whiffs is a great sign for Irvin. When he was at his best in the first half of 2024, he was getting solid whiff numbers. He was not overpowering, but he had enough in the tank for hitters to respect him. Irvin has actually been a big strikeout guy to start this season, with 34 in 29.2 innings. He was not even striking guys out like that in his big first half a couple years ago.

Today, his curveball was a whiff monster. He got 11 of his 16 whiffs on the hook. You do not see a ton of big slow curve’s like Irvin’s anymore, but they are so nice to watch. Irvin’s command of the curveball was absolutely outstanding today. He was putting it right at the bottom of the zone or putting it slightly out of the zone. It was just too much for hitters not to swing at and he had White Sox batters fishing all afternoon.

Honestly, I think Blake Butera’s hook for Irvin was pretty quick. After a disastrous sequence from Keibert Ruiz turned a strikeout into having a guy on second, Irvin buckled down. He got two more strikeouts, but Butera had seen enough. With a lefty coming up, he went to Mitchell Parker. While Parker got out of the inning, I would have preferred to see Butera stick with his starter.

It was another shaky game for Butera today. He stuck with Mitchell Parker for a bit too long and Cionel Perez almost gave me a heart attack. However, I do like that he went to Brad Lord for a single inning high leverage spot in the 10th inning. Lord is more than a long man, and should be treated as such.

It was a gritty win for the Nats. They drew 10 walks, and consistently had guys on base. The floodgates did not truly open until the 10th inning, but the Nats pressure eventually paid off. It was a nice win, and now they will go for the series win tomorrow.

With walk rate exploding, which starting pitchers could be most impacted in fantasy baseball?

A big talking point across MLB this season is that walks are way up across the league. Walks per game are up at 3.69, which is the highest rate since 1951 and the only time since 1999 it’s been over 3.50. I tried to figure out why that was and what impact it would have on the game, both from a real-life and fantasy standpoint.

My initial thought, since horizontal movement is also up this year, is that there may be a difference in the seams on the ball, but that idea seems less plausible after I spoke to a few pitchers. Tobias Myers of the New York Mets suggested that it may be weather: “Maybe colder weather…I know here we’ve had a lot of wind, which a lot of guys are getting crazy movements on their pitches, but it’s more on like the sinkers and the sweepers.”

That could certainly be a component of it, and we know that offense is going to heat up when the weather heats up (more on that later).

The other common hypothesis is that it’s ABS-related. However, ABS hasn’t added any walks when you look at specific challenges overturned. A look at Statcast’s detailed breakdown would seem to refute that. So far, league-wide, batters have gained 50 walks on challenges. However, catchers/pitchers have eliminated 60 walks on challenges. Now, this doesn’t mean that at-bat didn’t end in a walk, but it’s telling us that ABS challenges alone have not led to more walks.

But what if the ABS is impacting pitchers in another way?

“I think it’s probably more guys thinking about it a little bit more,” suggested Myers. “Maybe guys are pushing, pressing a little bit, trying to throw strikes.” That was a theory that was supported by Twins ace Joe Ryan: “Maybe because you’re thinking about it too much, that makes sense…That might be something subconscious. People are thinking about a little bit. Maybe guys who are living on the edges a lot, or maybe trying to make the perfect pitch.”

It might be worth an article looking into pitchers who have previously gotten the most called strikes on pitches outside of the zone, but that may have been a better focus in the offseason. Still, I may come back to that idea.

Another component of how ABS could be impacting the walk rate is in how it’s changed the strike zone, specifically the top of the strike zone, which many pitchers believe is lower this year. The Athletic’s Cody Stavenhagen wrote a great article specifically about that, so I’d encourage you to check that out.

What that means for us is that this increased walk rate is likely here to stay. So if pitchers are going to be walking more batters, it’s logical to ask which pitchers are going to be most impacted by it. Especially since we know that offense in baseball always improves across the league as the weather gets warmer. With that in mind, I wanted to look at pitchers who ALREADY have an elevated walk rate, so pitchers who are giving hitters free bases, but haven’t been hurt by it yet.

I took all starting pitchers with over 20 innings pitched who have a walk rate that’s higher than the league average. Then, I looked at which of them also had BABIPs, HR/FB rates, and Left On Base Rates (LOB%) that were much better than the league average. The theory behind this is that, since these pitchers are walking more guys than most, if home runs or balls in play or inherited runners start to move towards the league average, these pitchers are going to be allowing far more runs than they currently are, and we’re going to see regression in WHIP and ERA.

So, which pitchers might be most impacted by this as the season goes on?

All data is BEFORE games on Saturday, April 25th

Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Regression Candidates

Pitchers with unsustainable left on base rates

As of Friday, April 24th, the league average LOB% for all starting pitchers is 72.3%

Name Team BB% LOB%
José Soriano LAA 0.092857 1
Gavin Williams CLE 0.147826 0.942623
Robbie Ray SFG 0.096491 0.916667
Chase Burns CIN 0.099099 0.901639
Jameson Taillon CHC 0.094737 0.87963
Chad Patrick MIL 0.085106 0.877863
Matthew Liberatore STL 0.08547 0.870968
Taj Bradley MIN 0.084746 0.861111
Eduardo Rodriguez ARI 0.1 0.859873
Connelly Early BOS 0.121495 0.843373
Casey Mize DET 0.08547 0.833333
Seth Lugo KCR 0.086207 0.827586

You’re going to see Jose Soriano up here as the first name and say, “When are you just going to believe?” The truth is that I do believe. It shouldn’t be a surprise to suggest he is going to regress because he’s clearly not going to have a 0.24 ERA. One big reason he’s going to regress is this 100% left on base rate (LOB%). That’s just not sustainable. Soriano also has an above-average walk rate, and that has always been a bit of an issue for him, so I expect it to hang around. However, the top four names on this list (Gavin Williams, Robbie Ray, Chase Burns) are not pitchers I’m “worried” about or dropping. But we should acknowledge that they’re running high walk rates right now, and their LOB% is not sustainable. There will be regression, but that doesn’t mean they’ll become bad.

Taj Bradley is another pitcher who will appear multiple times in this list. You’ll notice later that he has an HR/FB% of 0%. Yeah, that’s not going to sustain. Now, I have not been a huge Bradley believer in the past. The command simply hasn’t been good enough, and that’s not to say that he walks a lot of hitters; it’s more than he struggles to consistently hit his spots, which leads to those stretches where he gets lit up a bunch. He has been better this year, and the changes to the pitch mix are ones that I buy. Also, his .333 BABIP is really high, so that should be in for some positive regression. That being said, his LOB% is 14% above league average, the HR/FB rate is going to go up, and he has struggled to maintain consistency in the past, so I remain a little wary.

We should note that the TaJ Bradley and Gavin Williams paragraphs were written on Friday afternoon, so their stats have not been updated since their poor starts on Friday night. But, I guess maybe we were onto something here.

I am less enthusiastic about Chad Patrick. I know he has a 2.35 ERA right now, and I’m sure you can’t sell him to anybody, but you should look to jump off this train at the first sign of trouble. The walk rate is only slightly above-average, but the LOB% is well above-average, the BABIP is .260, which is well below the league average, and his HR/FB% is .05%. There’s an argument that he should have appeared in all of these sections. I should also note that, of the pitchers in this article, Patrick has the largest gap between his SIERA (5.51) and his ERA (2.35).

I was high on Matthew Liberatore in spring training because of the modifications he made to his changeup, but the whiffs have not been there, and I don’t think they’re coming. So even if the walk rate isn’t that bad, the LOB% is 15% above league average, and the .267 BABIP is below the league average of .285. I just think the tight rope is so hard to walk when you don’t really miss bats, and I think Liberatore is going to be more of a 4.50-ERA type of arm.

Connelly Early also appears in this section, and I don’t love the 12% walk rate. I think Early is one of those pitchers we alluded to above who nibbles and likes to hit the edges of the strike zone and is not getting those calls or chases right now. His LOB% is also 12% above-average, which will be tough to maintain, but the HR/FB rate and BABIP are close to the league average, so there is some solace there. I don’t love that he has a 9.6% SwStr% this year after posting much higher marks last season. The way he is pitching now is much closer to his 4.40 SIERA, but I just think he’s also a better pitcher than this and will settle somewhere in the mid-3.00 ERA range.

Pitchers With Low BABIPs

As of Friday, April 24th, the league average BABIP for all starting pitchers is .285

Name Team BB% BABIP
Gavin Williams CLE 0.147826 0.166667
J.T. Ginn ATH 0.093023 0.192982
José Soriano LAA 0.092857 0.204819
Grant Holmes ATL 0.102804 0.208333
Jack Kochanowicz LAA 0.139344 0.214286
Robbie Ray SFG 0.096491 0.223881
Chase Burns CIN 0.099099 0.227273
Michael King SDP 0.125 0.238806
Jameson Taillon CHC 0.094737 0.241379
Seth Lugo KCR 0.086207 0.24359
Eduardo Rodriguez ARI 0.1 0.244186
Landen Roupp SFG 0.109091 0.246154
Andre Pallante STL 0.120879 0.25

Even as somebody who digs J.T. Ginn, I don’t think he’s necessarily a 3.73 ERA arm. The sinker is a good pitch, and that will keep the BABIP low, but not .193 low. Those hits are going to start falling. I also don’t love his home park, so that worries me.

I was out on Grant Holmes coming into the season because I didn’t believe the talk that his elbow was fine. What we’re seeing is a pitcher who really only has a slider, and that slider has far worse command this season than it did last season. The .208 BABIP that Holmes is running is never going to stay, and he’s just not missing enough bats in general for me to be overly optimistic. I think he’s closer to his 4.55 SIERA than his 3.41 ERA, and I’d be looking to deal him if I could.

Michael King has been super inconsistent this season, and I don’t love that his strikeout rate is only 22%. That being said, the sinker is still a good pitch, and the sweeper and changeup combination should work well off of it. I’m shocked that he has a 2.28 ERA with how he’s pitched, but I also think he can pitch better than this. So, on one hand, a 12.5% walk rate with a .239 BABIP and a 0.37% HR/FB rate likely means that more damage is coming; yet, I think he can clean up the walk rate and also start missing more bats, so I’d still project a low 3.00-ERA from King.

Jameson Taillon and Seth Lugo are veterans who we know will give us runs of solid production during a season. Yet, we also know that Lugo is not going to have a 0% HR/FB rate, and both of them should see some BABIP regression. Taillon has a career .283 BABIP, while Lugo has a .282 mark, so both of them will inevitably start giving up some more hits, which will lead to some more runs with the walk rates. Lugo has a 1.15 ERA, so regression coming for him makes some sense.

I’m sure most of you viewed Eduardo Rodriguez and Andre Pallante as streamers who are due for regression, so this shouldn’t surprise you.

Pitchers with Depressed HR/FB Rates

As of Friday, April 24th, the league average HR/FB% for all starting pitchers is 10.7%

Name Team BB% HR/FB
Seth Lugo KCR 0.086207 0
Landen Roupp SFG 0.109091 0
Edward Cabrera CHC 0.092087 0.671372
Taj Bradley MIN 0.084746 0
Carmen Mlodzinski PIT 0.092593 0
Dylan Cease TOR 0.126126 0
Jack Flaherty DET 0.185185 0.033333
Michael King SDP 0.125 0.037037
José Soriano LAA 0.092857 0.04
Jack Kochanowicz LAA 0.139344 0.041667
Chad Patrick MIL 0.085106 0.052632
Casey Mize DET 0.08547 0.058824

Obviously, the pitchers who have a HR/FB rate of 0% are due for some regression here; that shouldn’t be a shock. That includes Taj Bradley, Seth Lugo, and Landen Roupp again, plus Edward Cabrera, Carmen Mlodzinski, and Dylan Cease.

José Soriano also shows up on here, which is the third time we’ve seen him on these lists (regression is coming). That’s also relevant to Cease because both pitchers are due for regressions, but, again, should not be considered “grenades” or “landmines” or whatever term you want to use. As we discussed above, you know Soriano isn’t posting a 0.24 ERA, just like you know Cease isn’t posting a 2.10 mark. I will say, I still think Cease is a better bet for a lower ERA than Soriano based on track record and this research. Cease will allow home runs this season, but his BABIP against is .365, so he’s going to allow fewer baserunners as the season goes on, and his LOB% is right around league average. Plus, Cease has more strikeout upside than Soriano, so I think he has less regression coming his way.

I’m a big fan of Landen Roupp, but we can’t ignore the 10.9% walk rate and 0% HR/FB rate. Roupp has also shown the ability to miss bats more consistently this season, so I’m still a fan of his, but I do think the walks will begin to hurt, especially since his BABIP is pretty low at .246. But Roupp has a 2.78 ERA right now, so a little bit of regression doesn’t mean you should move on.

Edward Cabrera‘s stats have been adjusted after his last start, but he did have a 0% HR/FB. He also started using his sinker more in his last start, so his walk rate fell from 12% to 9.2%. If he continues to use the sinker more often, his walk rate will fall, but he has always walked more hitters than average. If he goes back to using his four-seamer a lot, I’m going to be open to trading Cabrera away. The walk rate will just be too high to sustain a 2.73 ERA.

Carmen Mlodzinski has been a bit of a fantasy darling because of his potential strikeout upside, but he’s also sporting a 9.3% walk rate, which is higher than the league average. He’s one of the few 0% HR/FB ratio pitchers on here. I know he’s not giving up tons of hard contact and just a 27% flyball rate overall, but some of them are going to leave the yard. However, he’s also sporting a .352 BABIP, so digging in for this exercise has actually made me think that Mlodzinski could still produce in this range as the season goes on. Maybe more of a 3.70 or 3.80 ERA arm and not a 3.28 guy, but you’ll take that

I’m not as optimistic about Tigers teammates Jack Flaherty and Casey Mize (sorry, Sporer). Nothing about Flaherty supports a 3.47 ERA. His strikeout rate is down to 22%, his HR/FB% is due for clear regression, and did you see that walk rate? 18.5%!? There is just no way you can pitch to a usable ERA with that mark, and his WHIP is already killing you. Mize is in a much better situation with his walk rate (8.6%), but he’s also due for some ratio regression, with his 5.9% HR/FB rate and 83% left-on-base rate. Mize is missing more bats this year, which is great, but he has also allowed a 47% fly-ball rate, so balls are going to leave the yard when the weather warms up. Expect something closer to his 3.49 SIERA; I’d probably say he winds up a bit higher than that.

I like Jack Kochanowicz. I’ve written a lot about the changes to his pitch mix. However, I’ve also said that I like him as a streamer now, when I would not have streamed him ever last season. I do not believe he is a 3.10 ERA pitcher. His 13.9% walk rate is a major concern, but as you saw with Soriano, the Angels are OK walking guys this season. They have made the biggest improvement in baseball in keeping pitches out of the heart of the plate and have some of the biggest gains in pitchers thrown in the waste and chase zones. They are trying to limit hard contact and make hitters chase, and they are OK walking guys if they need to. That can work for Soriano because he has better pure stuff than Kochanowicz and will induce chases that Kochanowicz won’t. Kochanowicz is rocking a .214 BABIP that will absolutely go up and a .04 HR/FB that will go up, even though it will remain low because he’s a sinker baller. This is a mid-4.00 ERA arm that you can use in good matchups.

Aaron Gordon set to return to Nuggets lineup for Game 4 vs. Timberwolves after missing Game 3 with calf injury

With an uphill battle ahead, the Denver Nuggets are getting some help back in the lineup. Aaron Gordon, who missed Game 3 of the Nuggets’ series against the Minnesota Timberwolves, with a calf injury, is set to return for Game 4 on Saturday.

Shortly before tipoff, the team announced Gordon would be available for the matchup after suffering from tightness in his left calf. It is unclear whether Gordon will be on limited minutes for the game.

Gordon was ruled out shortly before Denver’s 113-96 loss to Minnesota on Thursday, which gave Timberwolves a 2-1 series lead. Gordon’s absence was clearly felt in the loss: the Nuggets slotted in Spencer Jones as a starting forward, but Jones only pitched in six points across 28 minutes. Denver star center Nikola Jokić led the team with 27 points, but struggled from beyond the arc, going 2-of-10 from 3.

With Gordon back in the lineup, though, Denver will try and snatch a win on Minnesota’s home court.

Aaron Gordon set to return to Nuggets lineup for Game 4 vs. Timberwolves after missing Game 3 with calf injury

With an uphill battle ahead, the Denver Nuggets are getting some help back in the lineup. Aaron Gordon, who missed Game 3 of the Nuggets’ series against the Minnesota Timberwolves, with a calf injury, is set to return for Game 4 on Saturday.

Shortly before tipoff, the team announced Gordon would be available for the matchup after suffering from tightness in his left calf. It is unclear whether Gordon will be on limited minutes for the game.

Gordon was ruled out shortly before Denver’s 113-96 loss to Minnesota on Thursday, which gave Timberwolves a 2-1 series lead. Gordon’s absence was clearly felt in the loss: the Nuggets slotted in Spencer Jones as a starting forward, but Jones only pitched in six points across 28 minutes. Denver star center Nikola Jokić led the team with 27 points, but struggled from beyond the arc, going 2-of-10 from 3.

With Gordon back in the lineup, though, Denver will try and snatch a win on Minnesota’s home court.

Jalen Brunson injury update: Knicks star goes to locker room in Game 4

With their backs against the wall, the New York Knicks have played fairly well in Game 4 against the Atlanta Hawks.

But after an apparent injury scare, fans can breathe easier.

In New York’s eventual 114-98 victory Saturday, April 25, All-Star point guard Jalen Brunson, New York’s best player and captain, went into the locker room in the third quarter after getting banged up on a loose ball.

During the play, Brunson was getting defended by Hawks guards Dyson Daniels and CJ McCollum. Brunson appeared to tweak his right ankle before going down, but also may have also drawn contact to his head and neck area, as Daniels and McCollum wrapped Brunson up for a jump ball. Daniels also appeared to land on Brunson’s left ankle.

Brunson did take the jump ball, but lost it. Moments later, he asked for a substitution and jogged into the locker room with 10:29 left to play in the period. Brunson did not appear to have any notable limp as he walked down the tunnel.

The Knicks did not issue an immediate update about his status. They were up 58-49 at the time Brunson left the game.

Through 19:49 on the court, Brunson shot 4-of-11 for 10 points, though he had committed 6 turnovers.

Brunson returned to the floor with 6:53 left to play in the period, though he initially remained on the bench; he didn’t appear to have any additional wraps around his ankle.

Brunson checked back into the game with 5:38 left in the third, and continued to play with no apparent limitation.

Midway through the fourth quarter, however, Brunson got banged up once more, when Hawks center Onyeka Okongwu fell backwards and made contact with Brunson’s left knee. He immediately grabbed at it and appeared to be in discomfort, but Brunson stayed in the game.

Finally, with the game out of hand with 3:35 left to play, the Knicks emptied their bench to rest starters, and Brunson sat for the rest of the game.

He finished with 19 points on 7-of-18 shooting, adding 3 assists and 1 steal. Brunson also committed 6 turnovers.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Jalen Brunson briefly leaves Knicks’ Game 4 playoff against Hawks

Red Sox fire Alex Cora, and most of the coaching staff

Boston, MA – April 7: Boston Red Sox manager Alex Cora returns to the dugout in the sixth inning. The Red Sox played the Milwaukee Brewers at Fenway Park on April 7, 2026. (Photo by Barry Chin/The Boston Globe via Getty Images) | Boston Globe via Getty Images

The Civil War that’s been bubbling beneath the surface between Alex Cora’s and Craig Breslow’s philosophies on how to run the Boston Red Sox finally came to a head on Saturday evening. The rumbles started with this tweet from Jared Carrabis …

… And were confirmed within the hour across the baseball universe.

Noticeably not on this list is pitching coach Andrew Bailey, who aligns with the Breslow / Sabermetrics side of the coin.

The timing of this seismic shakeup is very much worth noting. It comes just hours after the club’s most complete win of the year — A 17-1 beatdown over Baltimore — and has shades of the Rafael Devers trade, which occurred right after a sweep of the Yankees last June.

Zooming out a little more, the horrific 10-17 start the Red Sox got off to also feels like the perfect opportunity for those in the front office to clean house of the guys who didn’t see eye to eye with them. Despite all the struggles, the strong starting pitching is still very much in tact, and eventually that’s going to start to matter. So this could be a very tactical move from the front office to time Cora’s departure with what they see as the nadir of the early season. If so, it will be viewed as both brilliant and diabolical, depending on which side of the war you find yourself.

In the meantime, the Red Sox still have another game to play tomorrow in Baltimore, and taking the helm will Chad Tracy, who is getting promoted from his post in Worcester to interim manager. This makes sense as the roster is both filled with young guys who are very familiar with Tracy (Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer, Connelly Early, Payton Tolle, ect), and Tracy also seems very dialed into the in game details. Just today in Worcester he caught the Mets batting out of order:

We’ll have much more on this and everything else that comes with it here at Over The Monster in the coming hours and days.

The next big item appears to be a press conference scheduled for tomorrow morning that will include both Sam Kennedy and Craig Breslow. (Have your spiked coffee ready!)

Long-term, only time will tell if today marks the turning point in a fun, memorable season, or the beginning of a total circus act.

Cardinals UDFA tracker 2026: Full list of undrafted rookie signings

GLENDALE, ARIZONA – SEPTEMBER 25: A detailed view of a rivalry helmet worn by the Arizona Cardinals prior to the game against the Seattle Seahawks at State Farm Stadium on September 25, 2025 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images) | Getty Images

With the 2026 NFL Draft coming to a close we head into the undrafted free agency period.

For the Arizona Cardinals there are not a lot of spots where they can add players, as even General Manager Monti Ossenfort said they have space for 6-8 signings.

Yet, the undrafted free agency for the Cardinals has delivered some nice talent throughout the years and hopefully 2026 will be no different.

We will update the names as they come along with hopefully a solid source and keep everyone up to date on what the Arizona Cardinals are doing, and as always, we will do a deep dive into every undrafted free agent after they have officially signed with the team.

Tre Wallace, WR, Ole Miss per Jordan Schultz

Elijah Culp, CB, James Madison per Jordan Schultz

Cameron Robertson, Edge, SMU per Aaron Wilson