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After an exciting four-team battle for seeding in the Western Conference throughout the second half of the season, all but two teams are locked into their spot playoff spots heading into the final day.
Results on Friday, namely Minnesota beating Houston, means that all that is up for grabs on Sunday is the No. 3 seed between the Lakers and Nuggets.
The Wolves will be the No. 6 seed and the Rockets will be the No. 5 seed, the latter only being able to tie LA’s record on the final day with the purple and gold holding the tiebreaker. At the top, OKC and San Antonio will be the No. 1 and No. 2 seed, respectively.
That leaves the No. 3 seed Denver (53-28) and the No. 4 seed Los Angeles (52-29) as the only sides that can end the day in a different spot than where they started. That also makes it pretty simple to lay out the scenarios for where the two teams can finish.
Let’s dive into them.
Lakers win, Nuggets win
If both teams win, then it’s simple math. The Lakers would finish one game behind the Nuggets and in the No. 4 seed.
LA plays the Jazz, who are tied for the fourth-best in the draft lottery. That means they certainly are going to end the season as they navigated it: by tanking.
On the flip side, the Nuggets play the Spurs, who are likely to rest their starters and key rotation players, with nothing at stake for either team. That being said, Denver has already done some weird things this weekend, resting all of its starters against the Thunder on Friday with far more uncertainty in the playoff seeding.
If this scenario plays out, the Lakers would play the Rockets and the Nuggets would play the Wolves.
Lakers win, Nuggets lose
If Denver loses to what will likely be the skeleton Spurs while the Lakers beat the tanking Jazz, that means LA jumps to the No. 3 seed and Denver falls to No. 4.
Outside of being able to laugh at the Nuggets for still finishing above them in the standings, it would set up a familiar, if not difficult, playoff match-up with the Wolves. While Minnesota has limped to the finish, figuratively and literally, they still will likely have Anthony Edwards and much of the same team that smacked around a healthier version of LA last year.
Denver, meanwhile, would face the Rockets in the first round with a second-round series against the Thunder looming for the winner.
Lakers lose
If the Lakers lose, it matters not what the Nuggets do as LA would finish in the fourth seed and face the Rockets. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that the purple and gold opt to rest many of it’s own key players to avoid any more injuries this season and settle into the fourth seed.
In that case, they would face a Houston team that has had a rocky season, even though it’s ending strong. The Rockets had their eight-game win streak snapped on Friday by Minnesota. It’s not been smooth sailing in Kevin Durant’s first season with the Rockets and the team has looked on the brink of a meltdown multiple times, setting up an intriguing potential upset bid for the Lakers in the first round.
Victor Wembanyama’s numbers are absurd. The 22-year-old, 7-foot-4 San Antonio Spurs center is averaging 25 points, 11.5 rebounds and a league-leading 3.1 blocks per game.
But maybe more impressive are the numbers in his head.
Because the French native wowed with lightning-quick math Friday night while discussing the NBA’s 65-game minimum required for awards eligibility.
“Of course, the alien gets all of it right,” a reporter said as Wembanyama made a series of calculations on the fly while mulling his stance on the subject.
The exchange began in the wake of Wembanyama’s 40-point, 13-rebound performance, which helped his now-62-win Spurs defeat the Dallas Mavericks 139-120. While securing his fifth 40-piece of the season, Wembanyama logged his 65th qualifying appearance, meaning he’ll officially be eligible for yearly awards, including NBA MVP.
In a postgame discussion with reporters, Wembanyama processed the fact that Detroit Pistons guard Cade Cunningham, Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards and Los Angeles Lakers guard Luka Dončić are all currently ineligible for this season’s NBA awards (Dončić, though, is challenging the rule).
“If those three aren’t — I mean, especially Cade and Luka — in the end-of-season awards, for sure it’s not going to reflect their impact on the season,” Wembanyama said, via The Athletic’s Jared Weiss. “But, at the same time, in my opinion, it’s good to have a threshold, a limit. Where do we need to put it? I don’t know. It’s a good question.”
Then Wembanyama asked the assembled media a question.
“What percentage of the season … do you think should be the limit?” he said.
One reporter suggested 75-80%. Another countered with two-thirds, in other words around 67%. Some said 70%. One chimed in that they don’t think there should be a minimum.
That’s when a contemplative Wembanyama became a human calculator.
“If a guy plays 50 games, 35 minutes a game, that’s 50 times 35 — that’s 1,750 [minutes], right? Is that about right?” Wembanyama said. “If a guy plays 75 games at 20 minutes, it’s 1,500 [minutes]. So it’s a good view, in my opinion, to not have a limit. It’s one opinion.
“Seventy-five percent of the games, in my opinion, would be a logical thing, and that would be 61.5 games, right? So, 62 games.”
You can do the math yourself if you want, but it all checks out. The reporters in the room informed Wembanyama of that as well, and he chuckled.
Soon after, he snapped back into analysis mode.
“So, there’s some interesting questions,” Wembanyama said, via Weiss. “But I think, obviously, I don’t think there’s going to be an exception made for this year. I think it’d be somewhat unfair, but we’ll see how it turns out.”
Victor Wembanyama’s numbers are absurd. The 22-year-old, 7-foot-4 San Antonio Spurs center is averaging 25 points, 11.5 rebounds and a league-leading 3.1 blocks per game.
But maybe more impressive are the numbers in his head.
Because the French native wowed with lightning-quick math Friday night while discussing the NBA’s 65-game minimum required for awards eligibility.
“Of course, the alien gets all of it right,” a reporter said as Wembanyama made a series of calculations on the fly while mulling his stance on the subject.
The exchange began in the wake of Wembanyama’s 40-point, 13-rebound performance, which helped his now-62-win Spurs defeat the Dallas Mavericks 139-120. While securing his fifth 40-piece of the season, Wembanyama logged his 65th qualifying appearance, meaning he’ll officially be eligible for yearly awards, including NBA MVP.
In a postgame discussion with reporters, Wembanyama processed the fact that Detroit Pistons guard Cade Cunningham, Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards and Los Angeles Lakers guard Luka Dončić are all currently ineligible for this season’s NBA awards (Dončić, though, is challenging the rule).
“If those three aren’t — I mean, especially Cade and Luka — in the end-of-season awards, for sure it’s not going to reflect their impact on the season,” Wembanyama said, via The Athletic’s Jared Weiss. “But, at the same time, in my opinion, it’s good to have a threshold, a limit. Where do we need to put it? I don’t know. It’s a good question.”
Then Wembanyama asked the assembled media a question.
“What percentage of the season … do you think should be the limit?” he said.
One reporter suggested 75-80%. Another countered with two-thirds, in other words around 67%. Some said 70%. One chimed in that they don’t think there should be a minimum.
That’s when a contemplative Wembanyama became a human calculator.
“If a guy plays 50 games, 35 minutes a game, that’s 50 times 35 — that’s 1,750 [minutes], right? Is that about right?” Wembanyama said. “If a guy plays 75 games at 20 minutes, it’s 1,500 [minutes]. So it’s a good view, in my opinion, to not have a limit. It’s one opinion.
“Seventy-five percent of the games, in my opinion, would be a logical thing, and that would be 61.5 games, right? So, 62 games.”
You can do the math yourself if you want, but it all checks out. The reporters in the room informed Wembanyama of that as well, and he chuckled.
Soon after, he snapped back into analysis mode.
“So, there’s some interesting questions,” Wembanyama said, via Weiss. “But I think, obviously, I don’t think there’s going to be an exception made for this year. I think it’d be somewhat unfair, but we’ll see how it turns out.”
The New York Mets are calling up veteran reliever Craig Kimbrel, according to multiple reports. The team officially announced the move before Saturday’s game versus the Athletics.
Kimbrel, 37, signed a minor-league deal with the Mets for spring training. During Grapefruit League play, he allowed three runs and four hits in six innings with five strikeouts and five walks.
Concerns about his velocity and control kept Kimbrel off the Mets’ Opening Day roster. The right-hander could have opted to become a free agent but instead stayed with the Mets to build himself up at the team’s spring complex in Port St. Lucie, Florida.
Is that? Could it be? IT IS!
Craig Kimbrel — now a member of the @Mets! — brings some of his signature high heat to record his first K of the season during a rehab outing for the @stluciemets. pic.twitter.com/UJKJMELVpR
Kimbrel made an appearance for the Mets’ Single-A affiliate on Tuesday and reached 94.2 mph with his fastball, which apparently compelled all sides to consider him ready. Adding him to the major-league roster will boost the value of Kimbrel’s contract up to $2.5 million.
The Mets’ bullpen has been effective early on, compiling a 2.85 ERA in 14 games. But with 43 strikeouts in 53 2/3 innings, perhaps the belief is that the relief corps needs more strikeout stuff behind closer Devin Williams.
“We continue to believe he can help us this year; he wants to help us,” said Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns, via SNY.
“We have a stable pen so far. We haven’t made a move, but eventually we will,” he added. “He’s certainly a candidate when we have an opportunity.”
Last season, Kimbrel appeared in 13 games for the Houston Astros and one for the Atlanta Braves. He totaled a 2.25 ERA with 17 strikeouts and seven walks in 12 innings.
For his career, Kimbrel has a 3.58 ERA with a strikeout rate of 14 batters per nine innings. With 440 career saves, he ranks fifth among MLB’s all-time leaders. Among active pitchers, he’s second to Kenley Jansen, currently with the Detroit Tigers at 478 career saves.
However, Kimbrel didn’t record a single save last season after earning 23 in each of the previous two seasons, one with the Philadelphia Phillies and the other with the Baltimore Orioles. That isn’t likely to change with Williams established as the Mets’ closer.
An electric regular season is nearing its end, which means two things:
1) We’re about to flow into an even crazier postseason, and 2) it’s time to put the finishing touches on award races.
Chief among them is the MVP award, the NBA’s most prestigious regular-season honor. There have been plenty of great individual campaigns this season, but the MVP race has largely dropped to a four-player group: the reigning winner Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, a multi-time winner in Nikola Jokić, and a pair of megastars in Victor Wembanyama and Luka Dončić hunting for their first.
This week, I’m breaking down the cases for all of them — or at least I planned to before Dončić suffered a hamstring injury that may make him ineligible for any awards. This series is less about who I think should win — I revealed that on Friday’s episode of The Dunker Spot — and more about helping others either bolster their arguments for their favorite candidate, or understand the legitimacy of the other cases.
After examining the Jokić case on Tuesday and SGA on Thursday, we’re going to talk about Wemby today.
Let’s dig in, shall we?
All stats are updated through games played on April 10.
Tale of the tape
Record: 50-14 (78.1% win rate, 64-win pace); 12-5 without him (58-win pace)
Notable per-game rankings (min. 50 games): 13th in scoring, 4th in rebounds, 1st in blocks
The basic case: Who’s providing more per-possession impact?
The framing here is important.
Wemby, due to a combination of early injuries, preventative maintenance (nine games as a reserve), and the Spurs’ own dominance in 2026, simply will not play more than Jokić or SGA. He’s trailing both by nearly 400 total minutes, and that’s just not a gap that’s going to close in any significant way on Sunday.
Despite the minutes gap, Wemby has driven winning to an insane degree. The Spurs have won at a 64-win pace in the games he’s appeared in, and have outscored opponents by a whopping 682 pointsin his minutes — that ranks second behind SGA (+788).
(Hayden Hodge/Yahoo Sports Illustration)
The largest portion of that equation is what Wemby does on the defensive end. To be frank, we’ve never seen a defender like this: 7-foot-4 with an 8-foot wingspan that isn’t stuck in quicksand as a mover.
It’s hard to comprehend, much less actually quantify, what his presence alone does to opposing offenses. He covers an insane amount of real estate, amplified by the Spurs essentially using him as a one-man zone to make the paint inaccessible.
We can start with the easy stuff: Wemby leads the NBA in blocks (3.1, 197 total) by a landslide, and opponents convert only 53.6% of their shots at the rim when he challenges them — third behind Chet Holmgren (47.7%) and Brook Lopez (53% in the Big 2026!) among high-volume rim-protectors.
You’d guess that someone with his dimensions would have a wide “block radius,” but some of the swats from this season are video game-like. His block against Heat guard Norm Powell, in which Powell did the “right thing” by using the rim as a shield on a reverse layup attempt only to get it swatted anyway, is one I’m still struggling to wrap my mind around.
There’s a quieter highlight from the Spurs’ showdown against the Nuggets last weekend where he’s battling with Jonas Valančiūnas on the block. Wemby reaches for a steal, Valančiūnas tries to take advantage of that failed aggression with a swipe-through, and Wemby is able to both retract his arm to avoid a foul and get the block in one fluid motion.
Those are just two (of his 197) from memory that stuck with me; you can choose from a bevy of post-up blocks, floater rejections, top-of-the-backcourt swats and feel the absurdity. Because he has great timing, instincts and historic length, teams don’t generally like attacking when the big fella’s in the paint.
To that end, opponents take only a paltry 26.2% of their shots at the rim with Wemby on the floor, a mark that would rank second only to Boston’s absurd 24.1% figure. With Wemby off the floor, that jumps to 31.6% (equivalent to 18th).
The effect on overall rim efficiency isn’t as loud — 60.8% (would rank second) with Wemby on the floor, 64.6% (would rank sixth) with him off — but that represents an 87th percentile differential.
But notice, I started this by referencing Wemby in the paint, not just near the rim.
With him on the floor, opponents don’t take as many floater-range shots (-8.3%, 98th percentile) or long middies (-10.1%, 92nd percentile). Teams do take way more corner 3s (+3.6%, 23rd percentile), but that’s literally baked into the keep-Wemby-low plan.
(It’s been interesting to see teams get more intentional about who they’re spacing in the corner in light of that plan. It’s worth tracking its effectiveness in the postseason.)
Trying to directly engage Wemby — putting him in action, if you will — has its merits logically. Pulling him out of the paint should, in theory, open up avenues to attack behind him. And while he’s grown with his footwork and space-navigation in drop coverage, there’s still room for him to get better. Drivers (or strong rollers) are still able to dislodge him a bit with shoulder bumps to the chest.
In practice, though? Teams still haven’t had fun.
Among 31 players to defend at least 1,000 ball screens, Wemby’s 0.85 PPP mark ranks first; Jalen Duren (0.88) and Holmgren (0.89) are the only other players under 0.9. Even with growth areas present, he’s been absurd in drop coverage (0.84 PPP) and more than serviceable on switches (0.94; league average is 0.96).
The only thing to really poke at with Wemby’s defensive case, fun blocks notwithstanding, is how he’s fared on post-ups. A 1.57 PPP mark looks like a typo; it’s telling, though, that this has only come on 23 reps all season.
Of those, 13 have come from either Jokić or Alperen Şengün — two strength-based post options that coincidentally rank first and second in total post-ups this year.
Zoom out, and you have a Spurs defense that defends at an absurd, league-leading level with Wemby on the floor (105.1 defensive rating; OKC is first at 106.9), and falls off a cliff (117.1, would rank 20th) when he sits. That 12-point differential also ranks first, edging out Rudy Gobert (-11.8) and Derrick White (-10.3) among players to log at least 1,500 minutes.
Let’s talk about the offense
You know how good your defense has to be for 25.0 points on 59/35/83 shooting splits (62.6 true shooting, 4.1 points above league average) to be your secondary case?
That’s where we are with Wemby, a guy that’s objectively in the midst of figuring things out while managing to drop [checks notes] three 40-point games in his last five outings.
I understand the risk of sounding repetitive by saying variations of “it’s not supposed to look like this” but, I mean, it just isn’t supposed to look like this.
His handle, while poke-able, is still good enough to win 1v1s in a way that defies logic. His grab-and-go sequences in transition are electric; you don’t know if he’s truly going coast-to-coast with dunk gathers starting at the 3-point line, or if he’s legitimately going to take a pull-up 3. (I, for one, have enjoyed the trend of him blocking shots and almost immediately taking a pull-up 3 as a treat to himself.)
If you’ll allow me a cross-league comparison, there have been shades of A’ja Wilson in Las Vegas and Satou Sabally in Phoenix when it comes to the Wemby experimentation.
To the A’ja portion, there’s a clear desire to give their big star more freedom. That’s where you see the uptick in Wemby bringing the ball up (5.9 per game, up from 5.3 last year), initiating ball screens (185, career-best 0.98 PPP), and receiving more off-ball screens (334, a ridiculous 1.16 PPP mark on those possessions) in the flow of their offense.
I’ve had a great deal of fun watching the Spurs hit opponents with early flare screens to give their guys a running start. Wemby has received 54 flares this year after receiving 22 across his first two seasons. The Spurs have generated over 1.3 points per possession on those trips; please keep mixing those in!
But then there’s the Sabally portion of the equation; Wemby can do a little bit of everything, but the Spurs are still trying to figure out the right dosage (and location) of everything.
One of the early storylines of the season was Wemby essentially cutting his 3-point volume in half, though that volume has grown (6.2 attempts post All-Star break, 5.0 attempts before it) as the season has unfolded.
He grades out below average in self-creation situations: 0.94 PPP (league average is 1.03) on post touches, 0.96 PPP (league average is 0.98) in isolation. But when either of those touches have come in the middle of the floor, complicating an opponent’s ability to send help, you’ve gotten dominant flashes of what this could turn into.
The most impactful piece of Wemby’s game right now is his work as a roller in ball screens. The Spurs have generated a whopping 1.12 points per possession on trips featuring Wemby as an on-ball screener. That easily leads the league among high volume rollers (min. 750, 60 players), outpacing Lakers center Jaxson Hayes (1.08).
He’s grown as a screener (though there’s still room), but, as my illustrious Dunker Spot co-host Steve Jones Jr. would note, he’s really gotten better at angling his body in a way to force defenders to navigate higher on the floor regardless of the amount of contact Wemby actually levies.
Giving any of those ball-handlers — De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, Devin Vassell to a lesser extent — some variation of two-on-the-ball while Wemby rolls has largely spelled trouble for defenses. The same way Wemby high-points shot attempts for highlight blocks, he does so for lob attempts.
Even when he doesn’t get the ball, his roll gravity opens up opportunities for everyone else on the floor. Despite ranking outside the top-40 in screen-setting volume, he’s in the top-20 in terms of how often he’s been tagged on his rolls. Those tags open up weakside skips to shooters in the corners. And even with a tag, Wemby is so large that he can muscle through and get lob opportunities anyway.
Related: the Spurs generate 1.2 points per possession on ball screens where Wemby is tagged, best in the league among 58 players with at least 100 reps.
Also related: the Spurs shoot 40.5% on corner 3s when Wemby’s on the floor, and only five players have a more positive impact on corner 3 frequency than Wemby does.
This is all before digging into Wemby’s growth as a passer. The assist number (3.1) may not wow you, but I’ve been impressed with the way he’s mapped out the floor. The inverted ball screens with him pop in part because he’s gotten really good at slipping in passes to whoever his screener is. There have been quite a few corner skips in his film that have legit wowed me in terms of the timing and placement.
His turnover rate has dropped considerably from last year. The aggressive double teams that the Suns and Nets were able to disrupt him with earlier in the year don’t seem to phase him as much.
That’s not to say he’s completely solved them, but he has done a much better job of diagnosing when and where the doubles are coming from and delivering counter-passes as a result.
Here is how he’s fared on touches where he’s seen a second defender (or hard double) throughout the season:
This is how an imperfect offensive player can still average 25 points per game on high efficiency while managing to throw defenses for schematic loops. When you add that with legitimate game-breaking defense — he’s winning DPOY, folks — it’s easy to map out an MVP case despite the minutes gap.
