The 2025-26 NBA regular season is winding down, which means that the postseason is right around the corner.

Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win another NBA championship? How far can the surprise Detroit Pistons make it? What about Boston Celtics with superstar Jayson Tatum’s shockingly fast return from an Achilles injury?

We’ll find out the answers to those questions in the coming weeks, but the end of the regular season also means we get to see how those preseason over/unders ended up.

Which teams outperformed expectations and which underperformed?

Here’s a list of the NBA teams have clinched their preseason over or under at BetMGM sportsbooks, along with the six teams still undecided with a few games remaining.

Still undetermined

Denver Nuggets: 53.5

New York Knicks: 53.5

Houston Rockets: 52.5

Minnesota Timberwolves: 49.5

Atlanta Hawks: 47.5

Philadelphia 76ers: 43.5

Teams that have clinched their over

Oklahoma City Thunder: 62.5

Detroit Pistons: 46.5

Los Angeles Lakers: 46.5

San Antonio Spurs: 44.5

Boston Celtics: 41.5

Toronto Raptors: 39.5

Miami Heat: 37.5

Portland Trail Blazers: 35.5

Phoenix Suns: 30.5

Charlotte Hornets: 27.5

Brooklyn Nets: 19.5

Utah Jazz: 18.5

Teams that have clinched their under

Cleveland Cavaliers: 56.5

Orlando Magic: 51.5

Los Angeles Clippers: 49.5

Golden State Warriors: 47.5

Milwaukee Bucks 43.5

Dallas Mavericks: 41.5

Memphis Grizzlies: 39.5

Indiana Pacers: 39.5

Chicago Bulls: 33.5

Sacramento Kings: 32.5

New Orleans Pelicans: 30.5

Washington Wizards: 20.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder, with a record of 63-16 and ranked #1 in the Northwest Division, are the favorites with a -275 moneyline in their matchup against the LA Clippers at BetMGM. The Clippers, ranked third in the Pacific Division with a 41-38 record, have a +220 moneyline. Oklahoma City will clinch the No. 1 seed in the West with a win over LA on Wednesday night.

How to watch Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Los Angeles Clippers

• Date: Wednesday, April 8

• Time: 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT

• Where: Intuit Dome | Inglewood, California

• TV Channels: FanDuel Sports Network Oklahoma, FanDuel Sports Network SoCal (local affiliates)

• Live Stream:NBA League Pass | Follow on Yahoo Sports

Team records

• Oklahoma City Thunder: 63-16 (No. 1 in Northwest Division)

• Los Angeles Clippers: 41-38 (No. 3 in Pacific Division)

Thunder-Clippers odds

• Spread: Oklahoma City Thunder -6.5

• Moneyline: Los Angeles Clippers +220, Oklahoma City Thunder -275

• Over/Under: 227.5

Change does not happen overnight. Success is not linear. Setbacks are needed for progress. Patience is the key to success. All of those sound good, yet all of those feel like sentences this year’s version of the San Antonio Spurs have thrown over the top rope. Imagine going back to the offseason and telling someone the Spurs would be 2.5 games behind the Thunder with three games left in the season. You’d see a furrowed brow — a raised one even — and a likely question about what happened to OKC. 

Well, the Spurs happened. 

It’s the Spurs who have won 60 games this season, becoming the fourth team in NBA history to win 60 the season after winning less than 35 (2007-08 Celtics, 2004-05 Suns, 1979-80 Celtics). It’s the Spurs who swept 10 of their 15 back-to-backs this season. Since February, the Spurs have gone 28-3 (yes, you are allowed to read that again). That was the first time in franchise history San Antonio had a stretch of 26 wins in 28 games. The Spurs also became the first team in NBA history to win 26 out of 28 while average 120-plus points and 30-plus assists. No matter how this ends, just know this is not your run-of-the-mill turnaround. It’s a special season. 

It’s been evident the Spurs’ consistency has been tied to their identity. What we on the outside may see as a surprise runs counter to what the Spurs have believed. This has the feel of a team moving closer to it’s internal expectations. The realization of the preparation, effort and hard work to set a standard they knew they could achieve. So the question becomes: How did the San Antonio Spurs become contenders this quickly? 

Ronald Cortes via Getty Images

The Victor Wembanyama Impact

The very obvious, very tall answer is, of course, Victor Wembanyama. He’s led the team on both ends of the floor, banging the drum for the team he wants the Spurs to become. He plays with joy, enthusiasm and a desire to be great. There’s a certain level of moxie on display, a confidence and belief that jumps off the page. A je ne sais quoi, if you will. The Spurs continue to move him around the board offensively. He can initiate, can work in pick and roll, will receive flare screens or pindowns. We’ve seen him grab a rebound in transition, throw ahead to a wing and then cut to the rim. There is always the looming threat of Wemby lurking or cutting in the paint off penetration. The desire to be great and his aggression has really translated on the offensive end of late, a sense that there is more intention behind what he wants to do offensively. Raise your hand if you’ve seen a defender give Wemby space only for him to make the shot and smirk getting back on defense. 

Early in the season we saw more physicality from Wemby when it came to getting post position or working to get catches at the elbow. That has translated to his drives where he’s looking to hit first when he has the opportunity. You really start to feel that in his face-up game. There is a rhythm and patience on display. Ball fakes or jabs to get the defense off-balance. When the ball is put on the ground, Wemby is working to absorb the contact and finish through or over it. 

Physicality from the defense is not going away. The shot selection can still be unbalanced, but there are more moments where it feels like Wemby is working to get to his spot, get to the shots he likes. On the nights those shots are going down, defenses have to spend a little extra time at the dinner table to chew that steak. 

It’s been interesting to watch how defenses work to take things away. How much help are they showing on a Wemby drive or post-up? Is that help early or on the move? Are teams wanting to switch, are teams wanting to double down on that by putting a wing on him? Aaron Gordon delivered a reminder of what physicality can do in a 1v1 situation, however, one thing Wemby has taken off the board is switching small guards on him. Defenses just cannot get away with it anymore. 

The Spurs opened the win over the Warriors on April 1 by running a dribble handoff with Wembanyama and Devin Vassell. The left side of the floor was empty, Draymond Green was in a drop. Wemby popped, so the idea was go with a peel or late switch and recover. The issue is Vassell got the ball right to Wemby, who knew he was driving as the ball was in the air. 

The Spurs mixing in five-out in transition is a sneaky way to find an opening for Wembanyama. In Monday’s win over Philadelphia, he starts in the corner, and it’s a simple exchange with him and Julian Champagnie. Joel Embiid wants to stay low and on the block so he calls for a switch. That puts Tyrse Maxey on Wemby, who once again looks to attack as soon as that ball is swung, hits first and finishes before the defense can load up help. 

Stephon Castle’s development

One of the more underrated parts of this Spurs season has been the consistent growth from Stephon Castle. Over the course of this season he’s taking his playmaking to another level. The journey for young guards is often reading defense, passing after making that right read and making the defense pay. Castle has shown an understanding on how to engage a defense, understand his job and make the right play. The chemistry with Wemby stands out as often times you see Castle attack space, engage the big to force him to make a decision and immediately tap the “Wemby-is-up-there-somewhere” button. You can see that becomes even tougher when the Spurs are able to empty a corner, take away any late help and force a defense’s hand. 

Castle being able to read the defense to open up lobs for Wembanyama is one thing. Seeing that defenses want to help and making those passes is another. Against Miami on March 23, Wemby slips a screen. The lane is open for Castle to turn the corner and drive, but he sees Davion Mitchell coming to the paint to help and gets it right to Vassell in the corner for 3. Against Memphis on March 25, he gets the handoff from Wemby, sees Vassell’s man go to tag and gets it right to Vassell for 3. A young guard who can diagnose a defense quickly is always headed in the right direction. 

Spurs’ movement matters

As a team, the Spurs are at there best when they are sudden. The ball moves from side to side. Actions are random. A swing could lead to a drive. Or a screen. To the Spurs credit they work well together and try to create advantages. If you stop them, they try to create more advantages. All of a sudden you’re defending an inverted P&R with De’Aaron Fox and Wemby, and you recover from that only for Wemby to face-cut to the rim. The more you can force a defense to sustain, the better off you are as an offense. It may not be a direct replica of the “beautiful game” Spurs, but there is a flow that stands out. 

The overall offensive attack has stood out all year. They have 48 minutes of consistent guard play, and Fox deserves a tip of the cap as well. His ability to fit in with the Spurs has made a difference. We have seen what Fox has done in the past, but that should not discount what he has done for this team. Yes, the 1v1 scoring is stil there and the bucket-getting is still there, but it’s worked to fit within the Spurs’ context. He can play on ball and off ball and make quick decisions, and his paint touches are important. 

Spurs’ culture

This all ties into the secret sauce of the Spurs, which is the consistency of their roster. You can count on the guards to open up drive-and-kicks to get paint touches without needing a screen. It’s a team committed to forcing help in order to get a shot or keep a defense in rotation. There’s been limited hesitation from Vassell all year long. Were you aware that Champagnie is the Spurs’ franchise leader in 3-pointers for a season? Do you get how the buy-in from Harrison Barnes and Keldon Johnson has helped lift this team? Carter Bryant just comes in and does his job every single time his name is called. It’s a team effort, and it’s a team that holds itself accountable. It’s a culture.

The real answer to the Spurs ascension likely lies within what they do on the defensive end. I’ve already written about the Wemby Effect, and that continues to hold strong. Teams having to work to decide where to space him, when to attack him and what to do when he is in action will always stand out. He also delivers the reverse card of having a command and control to communicate rotations and not cooperate with teams’ attempts to take him out of a play. The work and commitment from everyone else accentuates what Wemby brings. I chose this imperfect play vs. Golden State because of how the Spurs can recover. It’s full-court pressure from Stephon Castle. What looks like an advantage becomes a 1v1 against Wemby. An opening on the roll is being closed by Wemby rotating, which opens up an extra pass, which gets a close out by — you guessed it — Wemby. 

Here against the Sixers, you can see the decisions the Spurs force offenses to make. Embiid with a dribble handoff to Maxey, only Wemby is in a drop with Dylan Harper showing help. It’s an easy decision to advance it to Quentin Grimes, who looks to drive the closeout, only Wemby is once again there. The ball flows to Embiid, who gets it to Maxey, and Fox fights over without Wemby having to commit. Now you’re in a low-clock situation going 1v1 against Wemby because everyone has done their jobs. 

Postseason questions

So what does all of this mean come playoff time? The Spurs are likely to have people smashing the playoff experience button. On one hand, everyone starts out inexperienced at something. On the other hand, the playoffs are a different animal. The moxie and confidence has been there all year long, but can the Spurs attack the maze we know as the postseason?

The playoffs are different, with teams working to take things away in back and forth basketball. Will the defense have the same impact? Great players can make great plays that can mute the overall impact we have seen from the Spurs defensively. If Nikola Jokić, Anthony Edwards or Kevin Durant get going, does that take away from the impact? Is the Spurs’ defense their best clutch offense? Offensively, will they end up playing slower? Do they have an automatic pressure point? Do they know where they want to go, depending on who has it going?

Against the loss to Denver last Saturday, Wemby poked at the small lineup and poked at Jamal Murray switching until he — checks notes — stopped switching. If opponents’ flow gets slower and defenses are able to toggle their coverage, will the Spurs get the same looks? The Nuggets were able to not just have Gordon defend Wemby 1v1, but they could mix in random doubles without the Spurs knowing they could profit off it. That’s part of the learning process to win in this league, but can the Spurs get their GPA up in time? 

No matter how it ends, this has been a special season from the Spurs. They have been willing to go at every team, including OKC, in a competitive manner. They have defended their tails off, worked to push off stops and worked to keep pressure on teams. They put themselves in a position that no one thought they would be in. For some that’s a weakness. It could very well be their hidden strength because they do not know any better. Either way, there’s zero doubt the Spurs have earned their stripes, earned respect and will continue to pound the rock (and the drum) until someone takes them out. 

Detroit Pistons point guard Cade Cunningham returned to the starting lineup against the Milwaukee Buck on Wednesday. Cunningham played seven minutes in the first quarter, scoring four quick points, including a basket on an alley-op from Ausar Thompson.

Before Wednesday, Cunningham missed the last 11 games with a collapsed lung that he suffered after diving for a loose ball and colliding with Tre Johnson in March 17’s win over the Washington Wizards.

Cunningham was seen shooting around in warmups and was upgraded to questionable for Wednesday’s game against the Milwaukee Bucks after it was initially announced that he would be reevaluated on April 12. Cunningham had previously made his first public appearance since the injury a few weeks prior.

Cunningham is having a breakout season in his fifth year with the Pistons. He is averaging 24.5 points, 9.9 assists (second in the NBA behind Nikola Jokić), 5.6 rebounds and 1.5 steals per game. His assists and steals are career highs. The Pistons have since clinched the No. 1 seed in the East for the first time since the 2006-2007 season and their first Central Division title since the 2007-08 season.

Despite Cunningham’s numbers, he will not be eligible to receive individual accolades because he won’t be able to reach the NBA’s minimum 65-game rule. The rule, which was introduced during the 2023-24 season, requires players to appear in at least 65 games to be eligible for awards such as MVP, DPOY and All-NBA teams.

Cunningham has played in 61 games, and the Pistons will have only two games remaining if he is cleared to play after his evaluation. He was expected to be in the running for honors such as All-NBA and MVP before the injury.

Cunningham’s injury has sparked debate about the 65-game rule.

The National Basketball Players Association issued a statement in March calling for the rule to be “abolished or reformed” following Cunningham’s injury. His agent, Jeff Schwartz, told ESPN’s Shams Charania that the 24-year-old point guard should be granted an exception.

“Cade has delivered a first-team All-NBA season,” Schwartz said. “If he falls just short of an arbitrary games-played threshold due to a legitimate injury, it should not disqualify him from recognition he has clearly earned over the course of the season. The league should reward excellence, not enforce rigid cutoffs that ignore context. An exception needs to be made.”

NBA commissioner Adam Silver backed the 65-game rule, saying it was the league’s solution to load management and players resting during the season.

“I’m not ready to say it’s not working,” Silver said. “It is working. I’m not ready to say that because there is a sense of unfairness for one player, the rule doesn’t work.”

Pistons big man Isaiah Stewart is also questionable to return against the Bucks after missing 13 in a row with a left calf strain. Stewart has played in 55 games this season, making him ineligible for awards such as Defensive Player of the Year or the All-Defensive Team. On Wednesday, he told reporters he considered returning to preserve eligibility but decided not to rush back, believing it was best for both himself and the team.

Pistons All-Star Jalen Duren and the emergence of Daniss Jenkins have helped the team continue to win without Cunningham in the lineup. The Pistons are 13-5 this season without him.

The Pistons are 57-22 and the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference.

Regression has become a misused word in the fantasy space. It’s important to identify things that are unsustainable in sports. Hot starts that will cool, cold starts that will fade away. But we can’t simply yell out “Regression!” and drop the mic. We need to figure out what level things will regress to.

Said another way, regression is a great way to start the conversation. It’s not the end of the conversation.

With all that in mind, today we’ll look at some of the hot starters in MLB through a couple of weeks. All of these players will regress over the balance of the year, because nobody ends a season with a .400 average or a perfect ERA. But let’s try to intelligently guess how real these starts are, and how we might approach these players moving forward.

Andy Pages, OF, Dodgers

Pages had a good year last season, if not a full breakout. His .272/.313/.461 slash worked out to a 115 OPS+, an above-average offensive player. Alas, Pages ran out of hits in the playoffs, mired in a 4-for-42 October slump. He had nine strikeouts against zero walks in October.

Pages has been everywhere for two weeks in 2026, rocking a .452 average and hitting three homers. Improved plate discipline tells a lot of the story. Pages was in the 18th percentile for chase rate last year, but it’s bumped to 43% this year. And when he’s making contact, loud things happen. His expected average is a juicy .322, his expected slugging a robust .533. We know that fortunate .533 BABIP is going to disappear, but Pages is a bona fide hitter.

Pages has a solidified spot in the deep Los Angeles batting order, moving up to fifth and sixth in recent games. His excellent defense also marks his regular spot. Pages had a March ADP in the 140s, but it’s just outside 100 for the past week or so, and I support that market trend. He should end the year with a plus average and 25-30 homers, and he’ll steal a base about every two weeks.

Chandler Simpson, OF, Rays

Tampa Bay has always been a knuckleball organization in MLB, a club that thinks differently. So I guess I wasn’t surprised to see Simpson batting between third and fifth in recent games, despite his lack of power. Simpson doesn’t have a homer in his 120-game career, and his career slugging is a puny .355. But, as stated, Tampa Bay doesn’t mind thinking differently.

Simpson already had elite contact skills, but it’s been otherworldly this season — he’s cut the strikeouts down to 4.4%. He’s also nudged his walk rate up almost 50%. The pretty .405 average is obviously a result of favorable outcomes — a .425 BABIP waves hello. But it’s interesting to note that Simpson had a .295 expected average last year, and that’s also where he’s at today. If Simpson can give us the bankable average boost and mix in 40-plus steals, he’s a credible fantasy commodity, even without the power.

The tiebreaker for Simpson might come down to his batting slot. He opened the year hitting in the lower third more often than not, and his quick start earned him a promotion. He feels miscast as a No. 3 or No. 5 hitter, given his lack of power, but if he can simply stick in the top half of the Tampa Bay lineup somewhere, it will help his run production.

Yahoo’s market has stayed firm on Chandler, still viewing him as a Pick 190-type player. I probably would have passed on that ticket a month ago, not wanting to tie to a limited-category player, but I’m a little more open-minded today, if the lineup promotion is real. You just need a specific type of roster build for a Chandler to make sense.

José Soriano, SP, Angels

It’s nice to see something work out for this organization every now and then. The Angels signed Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton and Anthony Rendon to big contracts in the middle of their careers, and every deal went down as a bust. Pairing Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani looked like a dream scenario, but Trout’s been injury-riddled for several years, and the Angels never had a winning record while Trout and Ohtani were teammates. Now Ohtani is rewriting history with the big-brother Dodgers about 30 miles away, while the Angels are stuck with their non-contending club.

So let’s talk about a fun OC story, like Soriano’s first three starts (three wins, 0.45 ERA, 0.65 WHIP).

Soriano is one of those quirky pitchers who make the radar gun pop but don’t strike out that many batters. Well, perhaps that’s a problem in the past. His strikeout rate has risen through three starts this year (a bump of 8.6%) and his walk rate has come down. And because Soriano’s best pitch is a power sinker, he’s still getting ground balls by the truckload.

Soriano never lacks for options, mixing a sinker, knuckle curve, slider and splitter in with his more traditional four-seam fastball. This year, he’s been getting more swings out of the strike zone (a bump of almost 13%), which explains the strikeout jump. Throw in a big drop in walks and you have an outlier start that, while fortunate, comes in as mostly validated (2.60 FIP, 2.90 xERA). Pitcher breakouts can happen at any time, but there’s a reassuring nature when they’re tied to someone entering their age-27 season, as Soriano is.

Noah Cameron, SP, Royals

I don’t want this piece to be all validation stories, so I’ll reluctantly throw some cold water on Cameron. I say reluctantly because his surprise run last year (2.99 ERA, 1.099 WHIP over 24 starts) was welcome on several of my rosters, and I tried to reacquire him this spring, with mixed success.

Cameron’s first two starts have been dreamy — 1.69 ERA, 1.125 WHIP. His walk rate is down, his strikeout rate is up, for whatever we’ll make of a sample size so small.

I just want to underscore that his xERA is still a robust 4.29. Cameron is a fly-ball pitcher and it’s obviously fortunate that he hasn’t been taken deep yet.

The schedule has also been friendly — Minnesota and Cleveland, unthreatening matchups. Divisional strength doesn’t have as much meaning these days, as MLB tweaked the schedule a few years back. The Royals will play their four division mates 13 times each, for a total of 52 games. The other 110 matchups come outside the soft landing pad, against better opponents.

Cameron had a fastball in the 92s last year; this year it tracks at 91.3 mph. At that speed, he needs to be precise with his location. Being left-handed helps somewhat. I still think Cameron can be a roster-worthy arm at the back of a mixed-league rotation, but I understand why every projection system still calls for an ERA over 4.00 moving forward.

The Atlanta Hawks can secure a playoff berth and no worse than the Eastern Conference’s No. 6 seed with a win over the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Cavs have already secured home-court advantage for the first round of the playoffs, but still have a chance to catch the New York Knicks for the No. 3 seed.

How to watch Atlanta Hawks vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

• Date: Wednesday, April 8

• Time: 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT

• Where: Rocket Arena, Cleveland, Ohio

• TV Channels: ESPN, FDSO, Rock, WUAB

• Live Stream:NBA League Pass | Follow on Yahoo Sports

Team records

• Atlanta Hawks: 45-34 (#1 in Eastern Southeast)

• Cleveland Cavaliers: 50-29 (#2 in Eastern Central)

Odds

• Spread: Cleveland Cavaliers -1.5

• Moneyline: Cleveland Cavaliers -120 (52.2%) / Atlanta Hawks +100 (47.8%)

• Over/Under: 235.5

The New York Mets (7-4) take a four-game winning streak into Wednesday’s game against the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Mets beat Arizona 4-3 on Tuesday in the series opener. Arizona is expected to start Ryne Nelson against New York’s David Peterson.

How to watch Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Mets

• Date: Wednesday, April 8

• Time: 4:10 p.m. ET / 1:10 p.m. PT

• Where: Citi Field, Flushing, Queens, NY

• TV Channels: ARID, SNY

• Live Stream:ESPN+, MLB.TV | Follow on Yahoo Sports

Team records

• Arizona Diamondbacks: 5-6 (No. 2 in NL West)

• New York Mets: 7-4 (No. 1 in NL East)

Odds

• Spread: New York Mets -1.5

• Moneyline: New York Mets -145 (56.6%) / Arizona Diamondbacks +120 (43.4%)

• Over/Under: 7.5

Starting pitchers

Arizona Diamondbacks: Ryne Nelson (0-1, ERA: 5.79, K: 7, WHIP: 1.18)
New York Mets: David Peterson (0-1, ERA: 4.66, K: 8, WHIP: 1.97)

Weather: 47°F at first pitch