It’s official. No player in NBA history has played in more regular-season games than LeBron James.

The Los Angeles Lakers’ star tied a three-decade-old record on Thursday with his appearance in a game against the Miami Heat. It was his 1,611th career game, matching Boston Celtics great Robert Parish atop the NBA leaderboard. James started in all but two of those games. He was already the record-holder when factoring in his 292 playoff appearances, which bring his total up to 1,903 games.

James honored the occasion by posting a 19-point, 15-rebound, 10-assist triple-double in

James’ place in history is obviously secure. The question now is how many games he has left in him. There is rampant speculation about what he’ll do this offseason, with his choices including retirement, a return to the Lakers or perhaps a reunion with the Cleveland Cavaliers.

This season has seen James post some of the lowest numbers of his career and miss more than a few games to injury, including a 14-game stretch to open the season due to sciatica. He has already ended his All-Star starting streak, his All-NBA streak and his 10-point streak, all unprecedented in league history.

Brooklyn Nets forward Michael Porter Jr. will be out for two to three weeks after being diagnosed with a left hamstring strain, the team announced on Thursday. He will be reevaluated after that period.

By then, however, the Nets’ season could be over. Only 13 games remain on the regular-season schedule for Brooklyn and the team has been playing for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft. The Nets currently hold the third-worst record in the NBA at 17-52.

Yahoo Fantasy Bracket Mayhem: Make your picks for $50K in total prizes

Traded to the Nets from the Denver Nuggets in exchange for Cam Johnson, Porter was putting up the best numbers of his career. The seven-year veteran averaged 24.2 points (tied for 14th among NBA scorers), 7.1 rebounds, 3 assists and 1.1 steals, while shooting 36% on 485 3-point attempts this season.

However, Porter appeared in only 52 games due to ankle injuries and a chronic nerve condition (called “foot drop”) in his left foot. He had missed the Nets’ past four games with his left hamstring issue.

If Porter is able to return in two weeks, that would leave five or six games in the Nets’ season. However, both the Nets and Porter might question if there’s any point in him playing those games — especially if the team is playing for the No. 1 overall pick. Right now, the Nets share the best chance to win that selection with the Indiana Pacers and Washington Wizards at 14%.

Porter, 27, also has one year remaining on his contract and both he and the Nets may want to show that he’s healthy for a possible offseason trade. He’s set to be paid $40.8 million next season, a salary slot that non-contending teams would love to open on their caps. Of course, that could apply to the Nets as well.

Terry Rozier hasn’t appeared in a game for the Miami Heat this season. In October, he was arrested and indicted as a result of an expansive federal gambling investigation that unearthed two separate cases that altogether feature 34 total defendants.

But the 32-year-old guard is still on the Heat’s roster with just 13 games remaining in the regular season. He reportedly won’t be for much longer, however.

The Heat are expected to waive Rozier before the end of the regular season, in order to make room for a playoff roster spot, according to reports from the Miami Herald and ESPN on Thursday.

Rozier was charged with conspiracy to commit wire fraud and money laundering. He pleaded not guilty in December.

Prior to a March 2023 game, in which he played a mere nine minutes and change for the Charlotte Hornets due to a foot injury, Rozier is alleged to have shared inside information about his early exit, allegedly leading to his co-conspirator bettors wagering more than $200,000 on his under prop bets.

Rozier is one of six defendants, along with former NBA guard and Cleveland Cavaliers assistant Damon Jones, in the illegal gambling case, which is centered around the trading of non-public information about the health and availability of NBA players.

The other case, which focuses on a rigged poker ring backed by the Mafia, also includes Jones as a defendant as well as several others, most notably Portland Trail Blazers head coach and Pro Basketball Hall of Famer Chauncey Billups.

The NBA placed both Billups and Rozier on leave, but Rozier won his salary dispute with the league in February. While his $26.6 million salary for the 2025-26 season was initially placed in escrow, it was reportedly released to him. That change came when an arbitrator determined that, under the terms of the NBA’s collective bargaining agreement, players can’t be placed on unpaid leave, unless they are involved in cases of domestic or child abuse, per a Feb. 2 ESPN report. 

Rozier is in the final year of a four-year, $96.2 million deal. Since that contract is expiring, he has to be waived by 5 p.m. on April 9 to clear waivers prior to the end of the regular season on April 12, as reported Thursday by both the Herald and ESPN.

The Heat acquired Rozier in January 2024, before it learned about the unusual betting activity involving Rozier. The NBA, which eventually cleared Rozier in its own investigation of him, didn’t give the Heat a heads-up, and reportedly neither did the Charlotte Hornets, who declined to comment in October when faced with questions about if they knew of the NBA’s investigation at the time of the transaction, per the Herald.

To resolve that issue, the Hornets agreed earlier this month to send a 2026 second-round pick to the Heat. More than two years ago now, Miami traded Charlotte veteran guard Kyle Lowry and a first-round pick in exchange for Rozier.

Rozier appeared in 31 games for the Heat after being dealt ahead of the deadline during the 2023-24 season. Last season, he played in 64 games, starting 23 of them, and averaged 10.6 points, 3.7 rebounds and 2.6 assists per contest.

With Rozier currently still on the roster, the Heat have a maximum 15 players on standard contracts. Although Miami won’t eclipse the luxury tax threshold if it waives Rozier and signs a replacement player right now, waiting to do so allows the Heat to remain flexible if a player is lost to injury down the stretch, as reported by the Herald, which noted another benefit of keeping Rozier in that 15th spot. Teams with fewer than 15 players on standard contracts can have two-way contract players on the active list for only 90 total NBA games in the regular season, 60 fewer than if a team is at that 15-player standard contract mark.

Regardless, Miami is reportedly expected to waive Rozier in the lead-up to the postseason and, in effect, will be able to fill his roster spot with either a signee or a promoted two-way player.

Just like targets and sleepers, fades are a part of fantasy life during the draft season. Often it’s the ADP that cools us to a candidate, or surrounding factors. Sometimes it’s more directly tied to the player himself.

Let’s examine a few players I’m unlikely to write tickets on this month. And if these are your favorite guys, no worries — that’s why we have a game. It’s a marketplace of opinions.

Draft your Yahoo Fantasy Baseball team for the 2026 MLB Season

Plenty of name players are listed in this column, and that’s also standard for a useful fades piece. What’s the point of telling you not to draft someone outside the top 200?

The ground rules set, let’s steer into some fades.

3B José Ramírez, Guardians (7.3 ADP)

Ramírez has been remarkably consistent into his 30s, and he’s coming off his two busiest seasons with respect to stealing bases. He also plays a thin fantasy position, so what’s not to like? Well, his supporting cast, for one. The Guardians ranked 28th in runs per game last year and Ramírez is the only top-150 player in the current Cleveland batting order. You want your early picks to be insulated by their lineups.

3B Junior Caminero, Rays (16.3 ADP)

Although Caminero’s homer output was evenly split home and away last year, we can’t ignore that he slashed .313/.358/.595 at stand-in Steinbrenner Field, but just .218/.266/.477 at home. The Rays are returning to their refurbished dome for 2026, generally a poor park for offense, and Tampa Bay’s lineup around Caminero is also underwhelming. Regression feels likely, but the ADP remains in a lofty area.

OF Corbin Carroll, Diamondbacks (17.9 ADP)

Carroll was a first-round staple in early drafts before suffering a broken bone in his right hand a month ago. It’s possible he could be ready for Opening Day, but does the power return right away? Will the hand issue discourage Carroll from stealing bases? I never want to be the injury optimist in my leagues, and it’s not like Carroll’s draft price has fallen that far anyway.

OF Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cubs (37.3 ADP)

PCA was a god in the first half last year (.847 OPS, 25 homers, 27 steals) and a slump-ridden player in the second half (.216 average, six homers, eight steals). Left-handed pitching was a problem all year, too (.188/.217/.376). While Crow-Armstrong’s outstanding defense should keep him in the lineup every day, it’s possible he could downshift to the bottom third of a deep Chicago lineup. And given how poor his plate discipline metrics are (high strikeout count, low walk rate, poor chase rate), you worry about collapse risk with his batting average.

SS Mookie Betts, Dodgers (38.5 ADP)

Betts already has a Hall of Fame resume punched and the depth of the LAD lineup will buoy his run production. But Betts is also coming off a pedestrian offensive season (104 OPS+, an eyelash over league average) and his stolen-base rate was the lowest in 11 seasons. Betts shows signs of decline entering his age-33 season, and I’d like most of my early picks to be on front-nine players.

OF Yordan Alvarez, Astros (36.9 ADP)

He has the batting eye of an angel but the knees of an old man, costing him chunks of time for five straight years. The current Houston lineup is probably its weakest in a decade, especially with Jeremy Peña now hurt.

SP Chris Sale, Braves (38.9 ADP)

He’s rebuilt his career nicely since joining Atlanta, but he’s also moving into his age-37 season, which makes me nervous. And although starting pitchers are asked to work less throughout baseball, Sale in particular is difficult to trust for a full season. He’s qualified for the ERA title (162 innings or more) just once in the past seven years (excluding the pandemic year). I need more workload upside if I’m drafting an early pitcher. 

SP Dylan Cease, Blue Jays (70.8 ADP)

His last three seasons are remarkably similar — tons of strikeouts, and an ERA that’s significantly above what the ERA-estimators suggest. When a pitcher does that ERA trick once, we call it bad luck. For three straight years, maybe it’s simply part of Cease’s profile. His walk and homer rates were also moving in the wrong direction last year, and he no longer has Petco Park to hide some of his mistakes (although Toronto should support him with a plus defense).

There were 24 relief pitchers who saw an increase by five or more save opportunities while converting five or more saves in 2025 compared to 2024. When we filter down to which relievers had 15 or more saves in 2025 than in 2024, the list shrinks to eight players. Relievers that met those thresholds include Andrés Muñoz, Aroldis Chapman, Cade Smith, Carlos Estévez, Daniel Palencia, Emilio Pagán, Jeff Hoffman and Will Vest. We have a mixture of relievers with closer experience seeing a higher workload and pitchers who consistently earned save chances with success in 2025.

[Draft your Yahoo Fantasy Baseball team for the 2026 MLB Season]

The visual below shows the relievers who met the previous threshold of five or more save opportunities and five or more saves in 2025 than in 2024:

On the flip side, the list of relievers who saw their save opportunities and conversions drop by five or more includes Camilo Doval, Emmanuel Clase, José Alvarado, Josh Hader, Kyle Finnegan, Mason Miller and Ryan Helsley. Alvarado was the only reliever with single-digit saves. Doval was leading the Giants in saves (15), though Ryan Walker ate into his save chances, with 10 in the first half of the season before Doval was traded to the Yankees.

Meanwhile, Clase missed the final two months after being investigated for alleged gambling charges, so Cade Smith took on a heftier load. Similar to Doval, Helsley was traded to another team (Mets), and he didn’t convert a save in the second half out of four chances. Helsley signed with the Orioles and should slide into the primary closer for the new team (more on him below). Similarly, Finnegan was traded from the Nationals to the Tigers. Finnegan logged four saves out of five chances in the second half of the season with the Tigers. 

This data reminds us that the closer market can have consistent players to target while understanding there can be volatility with trades, injuries and player struggles. We have several potential reliever targets, fades and sleepers to consider during draft season. 

More positional previews

• Catcher

• First Base

• Second Base

• Third Base

• Shortstop

• Outfield

• Starting Pitcher

• Relief Pitcher

Proactive Picks

Ryan Helsley, Orioles (Yahoo ADP 140.5)

Ryan Helsley signed with the Orioles, filling a void with Félix Bautista undergoing shoulder surgery in August 2025. After a career season of 49 saves in 2024, the Cardinals traded Helsley to the Mets, leading to a significant role change. The 2025 ratios were awful for Helsley, though his 4.03 xERA and 15% swinging-strike suggested the skills still existed, with poor luck. Regression was expected for Helsley, though, after a 2.04 ERA, 3.52 xERA and an 18% swinging-strike rate in 2024.

Helsley’s slider was nasty, eliciting a 23.1% swinging-strike rate, as a pitch he throws often to right-handed hitters (52.7%) and lefties (41.8%). He throws a high-velocity, gyro-like slider that makes hitters chase it outside the zone, with a career 40.3% chase rate. We want at least one dominant pitch for a closer, which Helsley possesses. 

Meanwhile, Helsley’s four-seamer has been crushed against right-handed hitters (.526 wOBA, .455 xwOBA) and left-handed hitters (.471 wOBA, .375 xwOBA). That’s concerning because Helsley’s four-seam generates above-average induced vertical break while paired with above-average extension that comes from a high arm slot (62 degrees). He might be trying to pound the heater in the zone, expecting to find success, though he may benefit from lowering the zone rates. For context, Helsley threw the four-seamer in the zone 60 to 61% of the time over the past two seasons. 

If Helsley makes a small tweak to the four-seam locations, we will have more confidence in his dominance. Regardless, Helsley should be the leading closer option for the Orioles after they relied on Keegan Akin (8 saves), Dietrich Enns (2 saves), and Corbin Martin (2) with Bautista sidelined. 

Ryan Walker, Giants (Yahoo ADP 192.3)

Once Doval was traded, Ryan Walker had seven saves with Spencer Bivens (3) and Tristan Beck (2) being the other relievers with save conversions in the second half of the season. Walker comes at hitters from a low arm and cross-body approach, which likely involves volatility in his command. Interestingly, Walker’s swinging-strike rate fell to 9% in 2025 after being around 12-13% in the previous two seasons. That’s slightly concerning to have a reliever earning save chances with below-average stuff from a whiff standpoint.

Walker’s slider typically had been filthy, inducing an 18% swinging-strike rate throughout his career. Unfortunately, Walker’s slider swinging-strike rate fell to 12.8% in 2025. The slider’s pitch movement profiles hadn’t changed much, with 14-15 inches of glove-side sweep. There’s a good chance that the slider’s whiffs and results regressed based on the pitch locations.

When Walker left the slider in the zone, right-handed hitters were crushing it in 2025. That’s evident by Walker’s slider allowing a .294 wOBA (.307 xwOBA) in 2025 and a .256 wOBA (.271 xwOBA) in 2024 against right-handed hitters when thrown in the zone.

Nonetheless, with Doval gone, Walker should eat up the majority of the Giants’ save chances.

The one wild card involves the Giants having a new manager in Tony Vitello, who comes from the college ranks formerly as the coach at the University of Tennessee. Will Vitello rely on Walker or make it somewhat of a closer committee in San Francisco? Walker’s draft price is somewhat discounted, making him an interesting mid-round second closer to target.

Fades

Daniel Palencia, Cubs (Yahoo ADP 171.1)

The Cubs tried to lean on veteran Ryan Pressly as their closer in 2025, but he struggled and they turned to Daniel Palencia, who was one of the waiver-wire gems at the closer position in 2025. He dealt with a shoulder strain in early September, then returned later that month. There’s a chance Palencia could take another step forward in 2026, given the above-average 13.6% swinging-strike rate. Like other relievers, Palencia struggled with control, though his ball rate improved to 34% after being around 39-40% in the previous two seasons.

Palencia’s slider continues to headline his arsenal, with a 19.6% swinging-strike rate in 2025, compared to a career average of 21.5%. The slider added nearly three inches of downward movement in 2025, as a breaking ball that he throws low and away to right-handed hitters. Palencia’s slider generates whiffs and weak contact (.231 wOBA, .175 xwOBA) against right-handed hitters in 2025.

Unfortunately, left-handed hitters crushed Palencia’s slider (.383 wOBA, .313 xwOBA) and four-seamer (.352 wOBA, .366 xwOBA). That suggests Palencia needs an offering to suppress left-handed hitters or they’ll continue to do damage. He sprinkled in a splitter 38 times (8.6%) that allowed a .147 wOBA (.225 xwOBA) against lefties in 2025. It’s easier said than done, but it would benefit Palencia to work on developing a splitter to attack lefties.

That said, if Palencia struggles to find another pitch to address the issues against left-handed hitters, we could see the Cubs turn toward Phil Maton or Hunter Harvey. 

Trevor Megill, Brewers (Yahoo ADP 158.1)

Trevor Megill (6) and Abner Uribe (5) shared save chances in the second half of the 2025 season. Megill dealt with an elbow strain in late August, causing him to miss over one month before returning in late September. It’s concerning when a pitcher ends the season injured; hard to have injury optimism heading into the following season. That’s especially true with Megill, who averaged over one month on the injured list in four of the past five seasons.

Megill has been successful, compiling 51 saves over the past two seasons. The skills support Megill’s save chances, evidenced by a 32% ball rate and a nearly 15% swinging-strike rate over the past two seasons. Megill saw the ratios improve late in the 2025 season, with a slight uptick in his swinging-strike rate. We’re not denying Megill’s skills and recent track record, but there’s a good chance Megill misses time again in 2026, opening the door for Uribe. 

Uribe’s stuff finally led to save chances in 2025, though there should be some ratio regression, since he had a 2.80 xERA, over one run higher than his actual ERA (1.67). With Uribe’s sinker and slider mix, he provides that optimal groundball and strikeout approach. That’s evident in Uribe’s sinker generating a 64% groundball rate and the slider inducing a 19% swinging-strike rate. 

The draft market has been torn on Megill and Uribe, but we prefer to take a chance on Uribe since he possesses the stuff to generate whiffs and weak contact, without the injury history of Megill. 

Sleepers

Dennis Santana, Pirates (Yahoo ADP 181.9)

In the second half of the season, Dennis Santana had 10 of the 12 saves for the Pirates. They traded David Bednar to the Yankees, aligning with Santana earning save chances. Bednar struggled in 2024, and Aroldis Chapman stole save opportunities. Santana has been waiting for his chance, and he performed relatively well in 2025. 

He might be due for regression since he outperformed his expected ERA (3.96), with an actual ERA of 2.18. Santana showed better control, with a 30% ball rate in 2025 compared to a career ball rate at 34%. Meanwhile, Santana’s swinging-strike rate was above 13% again in 2025, suggesting there’s above-average stuff, but not near-elite. However, Santana does have one near-elite pitch for whiffs via the slider, given a 20.1% swinging-strike rate. 

As Santana should, he increased his slider usage to 46.4% in 2025, up from 32.3% in 2024. Santana made a 10 percentage point increase in usage to right-handed hitters (49.3%) with a 20-point jump to lefties (42.5%). Interestingly, Santana’s slider doesn’t have an above-average movement profile, yet it generates weak contact against righties (.207 wOBA, .222 xwOBA) and lefties (.225 wOBA, .270 xwOBA). 

That could suggest Santana commands his slider well since it doesn’t have a filthy movement profile. Or Santana’s slider keeps hitters guessing with another pitch having a similar profile, which can be seen via the induced movement profiles above. It’s probably a mixture of both factors, with the cutter being a harder-thrown version of the slider. Santana’s cutter elicits weak contact (.265 wOBA, .322 xwOBA) to right-handed hitters. However, Santana’s cutters tend to be less effective against lefties (.313 wOBA, .317 xwOBA) in 2025. 

Besides Bednar, Santana had the highest game leverage index on the Pirates, showing the team trusts him in high-leverage situations. Santana fits nicely as an RP2 for around 25 saves at a cheaper draft cost.

Pete Fairbanks, Marlins (Yahoo ADP 163.7)

Pete Fairbanks logged 20 or more saves for three consecutive seasons, though he earned 77% of the team’s saves in 2025, which was unusual. For context, Fairbanks had 45% of the team’s saves in 2024 and 60% of the team’s saves in 2023. It’s worth noting that Fairbanks has dealt with his fair share of injuries in 2023 and 2024, causing him to miss over one month in both seasons. Meanwhile, Fairbanks was healthy in 2025.

He signed with the Marlins in December on a one-year deal worth $13 million, so it’s a low-risk investment for the Marlins that they could move at the trade deadline. When healthy, Fairbanks typically performed well with the strikeout skills to support the outcomes. Fairbanks had a 12.8% swinging-strike rate in 2025, with a career low in 2024 (9.5%). However, Fairbanks boasted a swinging-strike rate north of 13% throughout his career. 

Interestingly, Fairbanks’s slider took a slight step back from a whiff standpoint, with a 13% swinging-strike rate in 2025 and 10.3% in 2024. That aligns with the overall dip in swinging-strike rate during the past two seasons. The slider’s movement profile suggests more whiffs on breaking pitch that generates 6.5 inches more downward movement than the average slider. Typically, we find pitches that possess more vertical movement tend to elicit more whiffs.

My guess would be slider locations might be an issue, though a reliever’s pitches can be volatile in smaller samples. Based on the slider heatmaps, it looks like he might be throwing it too often in the heart of the zone, which leads opposing hitters to wait on the slider. We’ve heard rumors that the Rays’ pitchers have been instructed to throw their best pitches in the heart of the zone, to see whether opposing hitters can hit them. Fairbanks may want to focus on a location adjustment for the slider if the high-end downward movement isn’t generating the expected whiffs.

The other concern involves Fairbanks having potential left-handed hitter problems. Left-handed hitters have been doing damage and making loud contact against the four-seamer over the past two seasons, with the slider being decent, but not dominant. That’s especially true since left-handed hitters have been crushing the heater, evidenced by a .341 wOBA (.376 xwOBA) in 2025 and a .379 wOBA (.369 xwOBA) in 2024. Fairbanks may want to develop the changeup that he hardly uses, with a career 18% swinging-strike rate. Furthermore, Fairbanks’s changeup allowed a .204 wOBA (.232 xwOBA) against left-handed hitters in a small sample of 40 pitches in 2025. 

The Marlins have been rotating relievers as their primary closer. A.J. Puk (15), Tanner Scott (12) and Dylan Floro (7) led the Marlins in saves in 2023. Scott (18) and Calvin Faucher (6) were the only two Marlins’ relievers with five or more saves in 2024. Then Faucher (15) led the team in saves with Ronny Henriquez (7) sneaking into the mix in 2025. Faucher still remains on the Marlins, but Fairbanks showed he can handle the majority of the team’s save opportunities with the Rays across multiple seasons. 

Griffin Jax/Edwin Uceta, Rays (Yahoo ADPs: 204, 203.3)

The Rays value stuff, as they rank second in Stuff+ behind the Phillies. Griffin Jax possesses near-elite stuff, evidenced by two primary pitches eliciting a swinging-strike rate above 21% via the slider (21.1%) and changeup (27%). Jax’s sweeper is nasty against right-handed hitters, allowing a .149 wOBA (.168 xwOBA). On the flip side, Jax’s changeup serves as a deadly option to lefties, with a .146 wOBA (.150 xwOBA).

Edwin Uceta could be in the mix for saves with Jax, making this a muddy reliever room to figure out. Uceta’s arsenal doesn’t grade well in Stuff models, likely because he throws from a lower arm angle (14 degrees), giving him a Luis Castillo-type arm slot. He throws two pitches with an above-average swinging-strike rate, including the four-seam (17.6%) and changeup (19.1%). 

With the lower armslot, Uceta’s changeup and four-seam seem to have reverse splits, where the changeup performs better against right-handed hitters (.191 wOBA, .258 xwOBA) and four-seam is better against lefties (.221 wOBA, .227 xwOBA).

Uceta’s draft price has been slightly lower than Jax’s. We’ll want to take shots at the Rays’ closer options, but don’t over-invest in either one.

Top-12 RP rankings

1. Mason Miller, Padres

2. Edwin Díaz, Dodgers

3. Cade Smith, Guardians

4. Andrés Muñoz, Mariners

5. Jhoan Duran, Phillies

6. Devin Williams, Mets

7. David Bednar, Yankees

8. Aroldis Chapman, Red Sox

9. Jeff Hoffman, Blue Jays

10. Ryan Helsley, Orioles

11. Raisel Iglesias, Braves

12. Ryan Walker, Giants

If readers have been following along with how I typically operate when researching team and player-level data, it usually leads us toward an unexpected path. To peek behind the curtain, often the research leads us toward questions that may or may not have data to support the hypothesis. Though the plan was to examine one stat from every MLB team for fantasy baseball purposes, it turned into a few stats for every team, especially since we examined some player-level information. 

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Brewers

The Brewers threw the third-most cutters (11.3%), behind the Rangers (12%) and Red Sox (11.5%). Unfortunately, their cutters allowed the fourth-highest wOBA (.379). Notable Brewers’ pitchers who threw cutters often include Chad Patrick (41.1%), Quinn Priester (20.5%), Tobias Myers (19.5%), Jared Koenig (17.4%), DL Hall (17.3%) and Brandon Woodruff (15.7%) among players with 150 or more cutters thrown in 2025.

Priester is dealing with a wrist injury, so his sleeper appeal might be less exciting. However, Priester’s cutter was successful against right-handed hitters, allowing a .241 wOBA (.234 xwOBA).

Woodruff ended the 2025 season injured (lat), so there are some concerns about him ramping up in 2026. His cutter was silly, giving up a .126 wOBA (.118 xwOBA) against right-handed hitters in 2025. Myers was sent to the Mets, but Patrick warrants some intrigue as a backend rotation arm. Patrick relies heavily on the cutter (41.1%), specifically 43.5% to right-handed hitters (.332 wOBA, .297 xwOBA) and 38.5% to lefties (.330 wOBA, .352 xwOBA). If a Brewers’ pitcher starts throwing cutters, we’ll want to pay attention.

Mets

The Mets had the second-highest bat speed (72.5 mph) behind the Yankees (73.2 mph). That aligned with the Mets ranking third in barrel rate (10.6%) as one of five teams boasting a double-digit barrel rate, including the Yankees (11.8%), Angels (10.8%), Dodgers (10%) and Cubs (10%). The Mets lost Pete Alonso, who led the team with a 75.3 mph bat speed. However, they had a few under-the-radar hitters who had high bat speeds, including Brett Baty (74.8 mph), Francisco Alvarez (74 mph) and Ronny Mauricio (73.8 mph). Baty and Alvarez might be the most actionable from a draft standpoint since the Mets added Bo Bichette, Jorge Polanco, Marcus Semien and Luis Robert Jr. in the offseason to beef up their lineup. 

Phillies

The Phillies ranked first in Stuff+ and Location+. They were one of three teams with a 101 Stuff+ and 101 Location+ in 2025, including the Marlins and Tigers. Cristopher Sánchez (114 Stuff+, 101 Location+), Zack Wheeler (112 Stuff+, 107 Location+), Aaron Nola (105 Stuff+, 104 Location+) and Jesús Luzardo (102 Stuff+, 112 Location+) had a 101 Stuff+ and Location+ in 2025 for the Phillies. Sánchez has been drafted like an ace with Wheeler recovering from a significant injury. Meanwhile, Luzardo has been valued as a high-end starting pitcher after throwing the most innings (183.2) in his career, with Nola being undervalued after having a career-worst ERA (6.01). Nola maintained his 11.2% swinging-strike rate while still showing above-average skills with the lowest draft price in a while, going around pick 200. 

Pirates

The Pirates’ starting pitchers have been throwing the fifth-most four-seamers (22.9%), trailing the Cubs (26.6%), Nationals (24.9%), Rockies (24.1%) and Twins (23.6%). As starting pitchers, Bailey Falter (45%), Andrew Heaney (40.6%), Paul Skenes (38.9%), Johan Oviedo (37%) and Mike Burrows (35.3%) led the team in four-seam usage. Mitch Keller (34.8%) and Bubba Chandler (34.5%) were close behind in four-seam usage in 2025. We’ve seen Skenes and Keller use a diverse arsenal, so they’ll likely have a lower four-seam usage relative to the other starting pitchers.

Chandler’s four-seam averages over 17 inches of induced vertical break while coming with above-average extension (61st percentile). Since Chandler locates his four-seam up in the zone, we could see improved outcomes and whiffs in 2026. Don’t forget about Braxton Ashcraft, who throws sliders (39.3%), sinkers (24.4%) and four-seamers (24.2%) against right-handed hitters. However, Ashcraft pumps four-seamers (35.9%) to left-handed hitters to lead the arsenal, with curveballs (31.4%) and sliders (21.9%) rounding out the primary offerings. Skenes (45.8%), Keller (41.6%), Chandler (51.4%) and Ashcraft (35.9%) all rely significantly upon their four-seam most often to left-handed hitters. That’s something to monitor in 2026 as a team-level approach. 

Padres

The Padres love their four-seam and slider combinations. Their starting pitchers threw the 11th-most four-seamers (34.2%) and the 10th-most sliders (16%). Dylan Cease probably skewed the data because he threw four-seamers 42.1% of the time, with sliders at 41%. Nick Pivetta loved throwing four-seamers 48.5% of the time, with Yu Darvish having a diverse arsenal. JP Sears threw four-seamers 40.2% of the time in 2025, primarily against right-handed hitters (41.6%). With Cease joining the Blue Jays, it’s murky in the Padres rotation with Michael King, Pivetta and Joe Musgrove having injury concerns at the top of their rotation. Be cautious investing in any Padres’ starting pitchers, though Pivetta projects as the best option, with some ratio regression. 

Giants

The Giants don’t run. They ranked 29th in stolen bases (68) in 2025, 29th (68) in 2024 and last (57) in 2023. They had managers Gabe Kapler, Kai Correa and Bob Melvin over the past handful of seasons. These low totals of stolen bases may reflect managerial tendencies related to personnel. Willy Adames (12) and Jung Hoo Lee (10) led the team with double-digit stolen bases in 2025. Tyler Fitzgerald (17) and Matt Chapman (15) were the Giants’ stolen base leaders in 2024, with Thairo Estrada (23) stealing the most in 2023.

The Giants hired Tony Vitello, formerly of the University of Tennessee. Vitello eventually led them to a National Championship in 2024 before Buster Posey hired him as the manager. There’s a chance Vitello follows the mold of not having players run often, since Tennessee had few players with double-digit stolen bases, including none reaching that mark in 2025. The only players with 10 or more steals in a season were Blake Burke with 11 (2024) and Christian Moore (16) of the Angels and Christian Scott (12) in 2023. Seth Stephenson (25) and Luc Lipcius (14) in 2022, then Max Ferguson (15) and Drew Gilbert (10) in 2021. 

Harrison Bader (13), Adames (11), Lee (9), Chapman (9) and Luis Arráez (8) project to lead the Giants in stolen bases in 2026. Be cautious when expecting high stolen base totals for the Giants’ hitters. 

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Cardinals

The Cardinals’ starting pitchers ranked fifth in Location+ in 2025, suggesting they tend to rely upon their command and pitch location more than their stuff. That’s further evident by their starting pitchers ranking 29th in swinging-strike rate ahead of the Rockies. Among the pitchers with 75 or more innings, Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde, Matthew Liberatore, Michael McGreevy, Andre Pallante and Miles Mikolas led the way with an above-average Location+ in 2025. They have notable new additions to their pitching staff, including Dustin May, Richard Fitts and Hunter Dobbins.

May had a 105 Stuff+ mark, with Fitts close behind at 103, but Dobbins fit the Cardinals’ starting pitcher mold with a 98 Stuff+ and 106 Location+ with the Red Sox. The whiffs haven’t been there for May with an 8.7% swinging-strike rate, yet the Stuff models love him, given the velocity and pitch movement profiles. Fitts doesn’t project to begin in the Cardinals’ rotation, but he’ll be a name to remember when he earns a chance. 

Nationals

Will the Nationals run wild in 2026? They had quite a rollercoaster in stolen bases with 132 in 2023 (No. 12), 223 in 2024 (No. 1) and 127 in 2025 (No. 10). The major difference in 2025 involved the Nationals losing Lane Thomas’ 28 steals in 2024 while seeing Jacob Young’s 33 fall to 15 in 2025 due to injuries and playing time concerns. Meanwhile, CJ Abrams (31), James Wood (15) and Luis García Jr. (14) chipped in, with Dylan Crews struggling at the plate, yet stealing 17 across 322 plate appearances (they optioned him to Triple-A ahead of Opening Day). The Nationals hired Blake Butera, the youngest manager in baseball. 

Theoretically, the Nationals have the athletes to run wild again in 2026. That includes the additional stolen bases from Crews (25), Nasim Nuñez (21) and Daylen Lile (14) based on the projections, though there might be concerns with Nuñez’s playing time. If there’s consistent playing time for Nuñez, we could have a José Caballero-type season where there’s utility-value in real-life 30-40 stolen base upside. Crews, Lile and García look like cheaper sources of stolen bases, with Nuñez being a deep sleeper.

It’s key to any successful fantasy baseball season to correctly identify sleepers and breakouts. Below, we break down some of the top sleepers and breakouts at outfield.

Daylen Lile, Nationals (214.5 ADP)

The market is giving you a giveaway draft price here; please take advantage. Lile wasn’t overmatched in his first run through the majors, slashing .299/.437/.498 with nine homers and eight steals over 91 games. And the steal count is going to rise — he possesses a speed score in the 92nd percentile, and he had a silly 11 triples in 91 games last year. Some say the triple is a dying play in modern baseball — Lile is single-handedly bringing it back. His stolen-base success rate will rise as he gains experience.

The Nationals were patient with Lile at the front of his debut, but he was hitting cleanup at the end of last season. This year, he’s slotted in the No. 3 spot, after James Wood and CJ Abrams and ahead of Dylan Crews. I probably can’t sell you on the bottom of the Washington lineup, but the top needs little defense.

Lile was far from the fantasy radar at this time last year and arrived at the 2025 All-Star break having hit .234 with two homers in his initial 111 career at-bats. But things clicked over the summer, as he improved in each of the final three months and loudly broke out in September (.391 BA, 6 HR, 19 RBI, 20 R, 1.212 OPS). Lile has strong contact skills and a line-drive stroke, and his overall .299 batting average was well-supported by a .302 xBA. Although he lacks the ceiling of the more heralded Crews, Lile is a more polished hitter and is nearly a full year younger. He’s also faster, as Lile hasn’t yet put his 92nd percentile sprint speed to full use. As mentioned, the rebuilding Nats will likely make their outfield trio of Lile, Crews and James Wood the foundation of their lineup.

Ramon Laureano, Padres (213.9 ADP)

Laureano was probably the most underrated outfielder in fantasy baseball last year — he was the No. 29 outfielder in 5×5 value — and I initially had him as a double-digit value on my tiered rankings. I’m a little concerned the Nick Castellanos signing could create a logjam in the San Diego outfield, and ultimately, I decided to be prudent with Laureano’s ranking, mindful that he’s in his 30s and has never logged 500 at-bats in a season. Still, he’s an above-average hitter, and hopefully the Padres will give him some leash.

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Nobody picked outside the top 200 is a sure thing, but Laureano has already shown upside to be excited about.

Kerry Carpenter, Tigers (203.4 ADP)

Carpenter doesn’t take many walks and he’s never hit left-handed pitching much — the Tigers have generally platooned him — so at first glance, you’re thinking he’s a capped-ceiling player. But Carpenter showed some progress in limited work against lefties last year (three homers, .400 slugging) and Detroit is considering giving him more exposure to southpaws this season.

So you have two paths to make your money on Carpenter this year. If he approaches 500 at-bats, 30-plus homers and 85-plus RBI are reachable targets. And if the platoon sticks, at least he can focus on what he normally does: mashing right-handed pitching. Carpenter is also in the prime part of his career arc, stepping into his age-28 season. Carpenter is probably a better pick for leagues that allow for regular lineup tinkering, but no matter your format, consider his positives.

Wilyer Abreu, Red Sox (208.3 ADP)

I’m not going to cheat and call Abreu a breakout player, because we’ve seen growth the last two years (and he was great in limited action for the WBC champion Venezuelan team).

If he doesn’t get hurt in the second half of 2025, Abreu likely gets home with 30 homers and 100 RBI. His .256 career average isn’t a problem, and although Boston’s outfield is congested — this roster is still begging for one more trade — Abreu’s Gold Glove defense marks his spot in the lineup. If Abreu didn’t get hurt last year, his ADP would surely be 30-50 slots higher this spring.

Justin Crawford, Phillies (203.5 ADP)

The ADP is on the rise but it’s still going to be reasonable all spring, so consider the upside case with this intriguing rookie. Crawford hasn’t developed power yet, but he was a .334/.411/.452 player at Triple-A last year, with 46 steals in 112 games. And that came while navigating his age-21 season; time is on his side.

Crawford is in camp as a non-roster invitee, given a chance to win the bigger half of Philly’s center field platoon. But with Johan Rojas facing a PED suspension, Crawford has a shot to take this job all for himself. Crawford’s defense is MLB-ready — the Phillies will appreciate having a good defender join their outfield, for once — and he’s not going to have the bat knocked out of his hands.

Crawford also checks the pedigree box, as he’s the son of former All-Star Carl Crawford. You’ll see similarities in their games.

Alec Burleson, Cardinals (173.9 ADP)

I’m putting Burleson towards the bottom of today’s list because he might be more of a value pick than a true sleeper. Again, amigos, I’m not hung up on definitions. I’m just trying to give you some appealing players to target in your drafts, guys you can make a profit on. Burleson applies.

Burleson figured out lefties in 2025 and no longer has any worry about being platooned. His contact skills are excellent and he still might grow into a 25-30 homer guy. He also qualifies at first base, which has quietly become a difficult fill in recent seasons. The Cardinals will probably have Burleson in the No. 3 slot all year, ideal for volume and run production.

Dylan Crews, Washington Nationals (ADP 200)

Editor’s Note: The Nationals optioned Crews to Triple-A, but you can expect that to be short-lived as we head into the season.

Once one of baseball’s best prospects, Crews has thus far sputtered in the majors, logging a .634 OPS in 412 at-bats over two seasons. But this youngster has such a fantasy-friendly skill set that even with little success at the dish, he has still managed to produce 13 homers and 29 steals. The No. 2 overall pick of the 2023 MLB Draft has been hamstrung by a .248 BABIP, and the combination of better luck and improved skills will lead to a breakout campaign. For the cost of a late-round pick, managers could find themselves with a 24-year-old who hits .260 with 20 homers and 35 steals.

Dominic Canzone, Mariners (Undrafted)

Despite doing some excellent things at the plate last season, Canzone is a complete afterthought in most drafts. The slugger hit .300 with 11 homers in 269 at-bats, thanks to elite marks in average exit velocity (92.4 mph) and barrel rate (14.5%). His success at the dish was well-supported by his expected marks, and his .533 xSLG was even higher than his .481 SLG.

The left-handed hitter also put himself in position to be considered for a full-time role by posting a respectable .712 OPS against southpaws. The Mariners have a top-heavy lineup and could really use someone to emerge as the No. 6 hitter. Canzone currently looks like their best bet.

Evan Carter, Rangers (Undrafted)

After breaking out by posting a .917 OPS during the Rangers’ World Series run in 2023, Carter has dealt with significant injuries over each of the past two seasons. But he is healthy right now, and with 15 homers and 19 steals over 400 career at-bats, the 23-year-old has already proven to have the diverse skill set that is coveted in category formats. Despite going undrafted in practically all Yahoo leagues, Carter has 20-20 potential if he can stay off the injured list. Additionally, he should immediately improve on his career .235 average, since he made massive improvements on his strikeout rate last year.

Matt Wallner, Twins (Undrafted)

Wallner is the definition of an all-or-nothing masher, as is evidenced by his career 32.3% strikeout rate and 15.7% barrel rate. He dealt with terrible luck last season, as his .228 BABIP seemed nearly impossible for someone who hits the ball so hard.

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Even in a down year, he still managed to produce 22 homers in 336 at-bats, thanks to his penchant for producing pulled fly balls. Wallner also logged some time on the IL last year, and this time around he will use better durability and improved luck to hit .250 with 30 home runs.

Jesús Sánchez, Blue Jays (Undrafted)

A Sánchez breakout may not be as spectacular as that of the others on this list, but it still could happen for someone who has become an afterthought in fantasy drafts. By being traded twice since last summer and ultimately moving from Miami to Toronto, Sánchez received an upgrade in both supporting cast and home ballpark. A poor finish to the 2025 season with the Astros hid the fact that he improved his walk rate last year, while maintaining strong marks in average exit velocity (91.3 mph) and barrel rate (11.1%). The Blue Jays made a point of acquiring Sánchez on the eve of spring training, and he should occupy a premium lineup spot against righties. He has averaged 14.5 steals over the past two years and should finally produce a 20-homer season.

It’s key to any successful fantasy baseball season to correctly identify sleepers and breakouts. For more of each, check out our infield breakouts story here and our infield sleepers story here.

Andrew Vaughn, 1B, Brewers (216 ADP)

Expectations were high when the White Sox tabbed Vaughn with the third overall pick in the 2019 MLB Draft, but his progress was stalled in Chicago — and he hit a .189/.219/.314 wall on the South Side last summer. But Vaughn’s bat magically healed after a trade to Milwaukee — he gave the Brewers a .308/.375/.493 slash, with nine homers and 46 RBI in 64 games. He was a top-65 fantasy hitter over the final three months of the year.

Sometimes players need a change of scenery or a new set of guideposts, and the Brewers have been so shrewd with their under-the-radar player evaluations in recent years, I want to give them the benefit of the doubt. A decade ago, we’d regularly talk about backlining Tampa Bay — the Rays didn’t have a ton of resources but they seemed to use them smarter than anyone else. That’s how I feel about the Brewers now.

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Even if you fall short of my Milwaukee optimism, you can at least rally behind a post-hype sleeper who’s settling into his age-28 year. The timing appears right for Vaughn to take a step forward, and the cost is absurdly low.

Sal Stewart, 1B, Reds (205 ADP)

The Reds always seem to have too many options for too few offensive slots, so it’s generally a nervous exercise to promote one of their less-established players. But Stewart got our attention during an 118-game romp through the minors last year (.309/.383/.524, with 20 homers at two levels). The Reds used him off-and-on during a September call-up, and although Stewart had 15 whiffs against just three walks, at least his connections were loud (five homers, .545 slugging).

I’d like to hear some Terry Francona confirmation on Stewart’s role and batting slot before I jump into this recco with both feet, but Stewart at least carries plenty of plausible upside entering his age-22 season.

Shea Langeliers, C, Athletics (66 ADP)

Coming off a pair of productive seasons, Langeliers is a step away from a Cal Raleigh-esque campaign. The slugger was dominant in the second half of 2025, when he used improvements in fly ball rate and pull rate to hit .328 with 19 homers and 45 RBI in 57 games.

He boosted his year-over-year batting average by more than 50 points, thanks to a vastly improved 19.7% strikeout rate. Langeliers barrels up the ball often, is part of a rapidly improving lineup and calls home to a hitter-friendly venue.  He could produce 35-40 homers and 100 RBI.

Miguel Vargas, 1B/3B, White Sox (206 ADP)

For the deep-league crowd, I offer Vargas as a late-round breakout candidate. The 26-year-old who debuted way back in 2022 finally played a full season in 2025. The results were respectable but not impressive. Still, we saw some improvements, most notably major strides with a strikeout rate that was cut to 17.6%. Vargas has always produced many fly balls (career 50.3% rate) and respectable exit velocities but has been saddled by a lowly lifetime 7.3% HR/FB rate. That mark will finally push past 10% this year, which will give Vargas 25-homer potential.

Here’s a one-man mock draft for the first round, as we look to get those drafting muscles back in shape.

More Mock Drafts

• Mock Draft 1.0

• Mock Draft 2.0 (first three rounds)

• Mock Draft 3.0 (full draft from Fred Zinkie’s favorite picks!)

• Mocking from every pick in a 12-team league: No. 1| No. 2| No. 3| No. 4| No. 5| No. 6| No. 7| No. 8| No. 9| No. 10| No. 11| No. 12

1. Aaron Judge, OF, Yankees

2. Shohei Ohtani, UT, Dodgers

There are no wrong answers at the top of the draft, and these two guys will go one-two in most leagues. Judge is three years older, but Ohtani also carries the strain of his side pitching assignments. Both men are supported by deep lineups behind them. Ohtani’s 59 steals from two years ago proved to be an outlier; he did it for fun once, but probably now recognizes it doesn’t make sense to run that aggressively in the regular season. More than any other club in baseball, the Dodgers start each year with October health in mind.

3. Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Royals

In what can fairly be termed an off year, Witt still led the majors in hits and doubles and was the seventh-most valuable hitter for 5×5 leagues. The Kansas City lineup has an upgraded feel to it, with eight of its primary starters expected to be league average or better. Witt likely hasn’t peaked yet, about to enter his age-26 season.

4. Juan Soto, OF, Mets

Announcer Keith Hernandez has said for years that any ballplayer could probably steal 15 bases or so if he merely put in the effort. Soto took it a step further, leading the National League with 38 swipes in 42 attempts, after seven full seasons of station-to-station baseball. Even if Soto’s steals take a reasonable step back, he’s a multi-category monster entering his age-27 season. The timing could be right for his first MVP year.

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5. Tarik Skubal, SP, Tigers

His last two seasons have been remarkably similar, although Skubal was less unlucky with wins last year. The voters didn’t seem to mind — he’s been the runaway Cy Young winner in the AL two straight seasons. Starting pitchers are the running backs of fantasy baseball — you always worry about health risks, but if you land on the right ones, you probably rule the world. The top of this position should be considered in any first round.

Fantasy Baseball Draft Rankings

• Top 250

• Catcher

• First Base

• Second Base

• Shortstop

• Third Base

• Outfield

• Starting Pitcher

• Relief Pitcher

6. José Ramírez, 3B, Guardians

He keeps cranking out near-identical seasons, and he’s also taken his base stealing up a notch in his 30s. I don’t love the lineup around Ramírez, but six straight years of durability and production earns him an obvious seat at this table. Third base is also not a deep fantasy position.

7. Corbin Carroll, OF, Diamondbacks

The batting average has bounced around for his three full seasons, but players with this type of power-speed potential will always demand early fantasy picks. Last season was partially muted by a wrist problem; imagine what Carroll might be able to accomplish if he’s healthy in his age-25 campaign.

8. Paul Skenes, SP, Pirates

Wins can be fluky for even the greatest pitchers, which is why it’s reasonable to consider something other than wins to fill out your league structure. However you play, Skenes belongs here, sitting on a 1.96 ERA and 0.948 WHIP through 55 MLB starts. Appointment viewing.

Henry Russell

9. Elly De La Cruz, SS, Reds

For all the strikeouts, the average hasn’t really been a problem — his career .255 mark is more than good enough, given how he fills the other categories. And with Elly stepping into his age-24 season, we still have to view him as a player on the escalator.

10. Julio Rodríguez, OF, Mariners

You know you’re a special ballplayer when you hit 32 homers and steal 30 bases and chart as the No. 11 overall hitter . . . and the world collectively shrugs. It would be nice if Rodríguez played in a more favorable offensive park, but you have to grab these five-category contributors while you can. Rodríguez cut his strikeout rate to a career low last year, a subtle sign of growth.

11. Garrett Crochet, SP, Red Sox

We’ve seen this movie before with Chris Sale, the last time the Red Sox plucked a Chicago lefty ace in his prime and reaped instant benefits. Crochet’s first Boston season was much more effective on the road (2.25 ERA, versus 3.02 at Fenway), but his power arsenal is capable of dominating anywhere. If Skubal gets tired of winning Cy Young Awards, Crochet is a logical next pick, readying for his age-27 season.

12. Kyle Tucker, OF, Dodgers

Fantasy baseball sages Glenn Colton and Rick Wolf will remind us that it’s somewhat risky to pay up for a fantasy baseball pick who’s starting a big contract and on a new team. It’s also been frustrating to see Tucker navigate injuries the last two years. On the plus side, Tucker is still just 29 and he’s now insulated by the Los Angeles lineup, one of the deepest in baseball. And given the star-power in L.A. and the reasonable expectation that the Dodgers are already in the playoffs, it’s not like Tucker arrives in camp with absurd pressure on his shoulders. He’ll be a first-round pick in some leagues and an early-second round pick in others.

Others Considered: Ronald Acuña Jr., Gunnar Henderson, Francisco Lindor, Fernando Tatis Jr.