The calendar has turned to May, and still, we hardly know a darn thing about the 2026 MLB season. Everybody in the NL Central is good. The Phillies and Mets are collecting losses like stamps. The Athletics are leading the AL West, and they don’t even have a first name! What a world!

But as the weather warms, it’s never too early to think about cold weather baseball activities — namely, the 2027 free-agent class.

This will be the first in a series of monthly check-ins. Much will change between now and the offseason. Injuries, underperformance and unexpected breakouts are yet to come. At this point, we don’t know what we don’t know. As such, this list will change a great deal over the coming months.

Before we begin, a few big-picture notes about this class:

1. This could be an all-time bad crop of position-player free agents.

In every single offseason since 2015, at least one hitter received a contract with a total value of $100 million or more. That run might very well be snapped this winter. A strong walk year from Jazz Chisholm Jr. or Seiya Suzuki could lead to a nine-figure deal, but it’s far from a given. Why the shallow group? Extensions for Cal Raleigh and Nico Hoerner kept those shoo-in $100 million talents off the open market. And the 2020 rookie class was particularly light, for whatever reason.

2. There’s tons of pitching.

Whatever you’re shopping for on the mound, this market has it: Game 1 playoff starters, mid-rotation innings-eaters, lefties, righties, velocity, control, reliability, upside. It’s all here.

3. The labor situation will impact things.

It’s a near certainty that a work stoppage of some sort — probably the owners locking out the players — will happen when the current CBA expires on Dec. 1. When that transpired in the winter of 2021-22, there was a flurry of free-agent activity right before the CBA deadline. Things might happen that way again, they might not, but know that zero transactional activity is allowed during a work stoppage. Get ready to get bored.

With all that out of the way, let’s get to the rankings.

Notes: Whenever you see a number, a slash and another number, that’s a reference to contract years and total earnings. For instance, the shorthand for Bryce Harper’s 11-year, $330 million deal would be “11/330.” Ages listed below are for the 2027 season.

1. Tarik Skubal, Tigers SP, age 30

It’s difficult to envision Skubal getting knocked from the top spot. He’s the best pitcher in the world, fresh off two consecutive Cy Youngs and gunning for a third. Barring injury, he will break the record for the largest contract ever handed to a pitcher: Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s 12/325. That Skubal is represented by mega-agent Scott Boras will only add to the drama.

Skubal did have a weird moment in his most recent outing, when he shook his arm out and massaged his elbow after throwing a pitch. His next offering was a 97-mph fastball dotted on the edge. So while that moment didn’t become anything bigger, it was a reminder that every hurler in the sport is always one pitch away from catastrophe. If Skubal dodges disaster, the payday will be nuts.

2. Freddy Peralta, Mets SP, 31

Think of Peralta as the best of the rest. Dealt from the Brewers to the Mets over the winter, the ebullient Dominican has been just OK through his first seven starts. But Peralta’s numbers should inch back to his career norms as the season goes along. This guy finished fifth in the NL Cy Young last year and has a career K/9 north of 11. He might not be an ace, depending on your definition, but Peralta is undoubtedly a very good No. 1 starter and will get paid as such.

3. Seiya Suzuki, Cubs OF, 32
4. Jazz Chisholm Jr., Yankees 2B, 29

As mentioned, these are the only two position players with a fighting shot at a nine-figure deal. Despite being notably older, Suzuki ranks over Chisholm for his offensive consistency. The Japanese outfielder has tallied at least 580 plate appearances with an adjusted OPS 30% above league average in each of the past three seasons. Suzuki hits the ball hard, in the air, very often. That’s a crucial, repeatable skill. He’s also a better athlete and outfielder than you might expect — Team Japan had him playing center in the WBC — even if those skills will decline over time.

Chisholm, though, could leapfrog Suzuki with a monster season. The gregarious Bahamian clanked 30 homers and swiped 30 bags last season but has gotten off to a slow start in 2026. He’s walking less, swinging slower and barreling the ball less often. Still, Chisholm is talented enough to catch fire at any time. His defense at the keystone is stellar, as is his baserunning. Those attributes give him a decently high floor. If the offense bounces back, watch out.

5. Kevin Gausman, Blue Jays SP, 36

Age is but a number. Gausman was initially much lower on this list, but he kept climbing higher with each edit. His performance, in the end, was simply too good to ignore. The Jays’ righty has thrown at least 174 innings in each of the past five seasons and is on pace to do so again. He’s no longer quite as dominant as he was from 2021 to ‘23, but this guy was the ace of a Jays team that was inches from winning it all last fall. The underlying metrics still love him, and his heater-splitter combo remains one of the game’s best. He won’t earn a lengthy pact because of his age, but some team (maybe the Jays) will pay big money over the short term to secure his services.

6. Ian Happ, Cubs OF, 32
7. Randy Arozarena, Mariners OF, 32
8. Taylor Ward, Orioles OF, 33

This is a weird one. Three left fielders, all of them nearly the same age, with very similar offensive production over the past three seasons. Happ gets the edge in the early going because he has the longest track record, and he’s merely average defensively, whereas Arozarena and Ward are active detriments in the outfield.

But if steals are your thing, Arozarena is your guy. He has 112 bags since 2022 (Happ has 43, Ward 20). And, of course, the Cuban-born Mexican goofball always brings a flair for the dramatic. Ward is off to a scorching start in 2026, with a batting average over .300 and a league-leading 13 doubles. He also owns the single lowest chase rate in MLB.

9. Michael King (opt-out), Padres SP, 32
10. Trevor Rogers, Orioles SP, 29
11. Kris Bubic, Royals SP, 29
12. Shota Imanaga, Cubs SP, 33

King has a $28 million player option for 2027, but we think he’ll end up reentering free agency if he stays healthy. Despite an injured-plagued 2025, he got a three-year, $75 million deal last offseason. He should be able to beat that if he makes 30 starts. So far, so good.

Rogers and Bubic can be grouped together as younger-than-typical southpaws with short track records. The O’s lefty was one of the best pitchers in baseball after the All-Star break last year. Bubic was an All-Star himself. That’s more or less where the résumés end. Both have been good, not great so far in ‘26. Depending on how this season plays out, you could envision this duo as high as Nos. 3 and 4 — or way down the rankings.

Imanaga is coming off a bizarre foray through free agency in which he and the Cubs played contractual ping-pong before reuniting on a qualifying offer. His fastball velocity so far this season is back up to where it was during his stellar 2024. If that holds, Imanaga should get a nice multiyear deal.

13. Luis Arraez, Giants 2B, 30
14. Brandon Lowe, Pirates 2B, 32
15. Gleyber Torres, Tigers 2B, 30

Arraez is good at defense now? The 30-year-old Venezuelan settled for a one-year deal with the Giants last winter, in part because he was intent on moving back to the keystone from first base. Some teams were spooked by that, but the Giants were willing to take on the experiment. That has paid off so far, with Arraez grading out phenomenally on most defensive metrics. Offensively, he’s up to his old tricks. If the defensive improvement sticks, Arraez is a markedly different player and should get a better look this time around.

Lowe is a bad defender but has a much higher offensive ceiling and sturdier track record than Arraez. He has already gone deep eight times in his first season with the Pirates. Only Marcus Semien has more home runs among second basemen over the past five seasons. That’s all the more impressive considering Lowe has missed a ton of games over the years due to injuries. Perhaps that ends up dampening his free-agent case.

Torres was one of a record four players to accept the qualifying offer this past winter. For whatever reason, his exit velocity and bat-speed numbers are down precipitously compared to 2025. That hasn’t impacted his output just yet, but it’s something to monitor as the season unfolds.

16. Ryan Jeffers, Twins C, 30

Easily the top catcher on the market, Jeffers has quietly been one of the best-hitting backstops in the game over the past few seasons. His framing and throwing numbers are very poor, which probably takes him out of the running for a team that prioritizes defense behind the dish. As he ages, Jeffers probably works best in a hybrid catcher/DH role in which he can spend a bit more time focusing on hitting. He rakes, though, and is off to a magnificent start.

17. Daulton Varsho, Blue Jays CF, 30
18. Trent Grisham, Yankees CF, 30

Here we have two occasionally electric, extremely flawed center fielders. Varsho gets the edge based on his glove, an area in which Grisham has curiously declined. The Jays’ center fielder has also cut his strikeout rate by more than 10 percentage points, one of the biggest drops in the sport this year. How that impacts his power production remains to be seen, but the bar is lower for Varsho just because he’s capable of brilliance in the grass.

Grisham was another of the qualifying offer acceptors from last winter. He’s off to a slow start with the Yankees, though the underlying metrics think a rebound is inevitable. Grisham does a few very important things — walk, not chase, square up the ball, hit it hard — very well. That gives him a high floor … as a center fielder. A bounce-back in his defense would go a long way; it was telling that Grisham was wary of testing the open market this past offseason.

19. Casey Mize, Tigers SP, 30
20. Zac Gallen, Diamondbacks SP, 31
21. Robbie Ray, Giants SP, 35
22. Clay Holmes, Mets SP, 34

Lets call this “Starting Pitching Tier 3.” Mize was off to the best start of his career but just went on the injured list due to a lower-body issue. That’s less concerning than a shoulder or an elbow and shouldn’t influence his free agency too, too much. Gallen returned to Arizona on a one-year deal after dipping his toe in the free-agent waters last winter but looks pretty similar to the pitcher he was in 2025. He’s throwing more sliders and getting more chase as a result, but that’s pretty much it.

Ray, an All-Star last season, looks like a perfectly reliable mid-rotation type right now — somebody you’d start in Game 3 of a playoff series. Maybe he becomes more than that as he gets further away from elbow surgery. Holmes’ transition from the ‘pen to the rotation has gone better than most anybody thought possible. He has a $12 million option for next year, which he’ll probably decline if he continues pitching this well. The Mets have problems; Holmes is not one of them.

23. David Bednar, Yankees RP, 32 (26)
24. Ryan Helsley (opt-out), Orioles RP, 32
25. Raisel Iglesias, Braves RP, 37

Relievers are volatile things. Helsley, Luke Weaver and Devin Williams spent last season pinballing up and down these rankings with the whims of the wind. This trio here, though, represents the clear upper crust of the free-agent relievers to be. There’s an argument that Bednar belongs higher, given his long track record and current dominance. Let’s give it some time and reassess later.

The next 25

26. Ramon Laureano, Padres OF, 32

27. Isaac Paredes (opt-out), Astros IF, 28 

28. Jeff McNeil (opt-out), Athletics 2B, 35

29. George Springer, Blue Jays DH, 37

30. Adrian Morejon, Padres RP, 28

31. Michael Soroka, D-backs SP, 29

32. Foster Griffin, Nationals SP, 31

33. Brady Singer, Reds SP, 30

34. Nick Martinez, Brewers SP, 37

35. Alec Bohm, Phillies IF, 30

36. J.P. Crawford, Mariners IF, 32

37. Carson Kelly, Cubs C, 32

38. Sonny Gray, Red Sox SP, 37

39. Matthew Boyd, Cubs SP, 36

40. Jeffrey Springs, Athletics SP, 34

41. Chris Bassitt, Orioles SP, 38

42. Ha-seong Kim, Braves SS, 31

43. Edmundo Sosa, Phillies 3B, 31

44. Mauricio Dubon, Braves SS, 32

45. Jason Adam, Padres RP, 35

46. Jose Alvarado, Phillies RP, 32

47. Eugenio Suarez, Reds 3B, 35

48. Adolis García, Phillies OF, 33

49. Jameson Taillon, Cubs SP, 35

50. Jake Bauers, Brewers 1B, 31

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New York Mets manager Carlos Mendoza should be able to worry less about his future with the team now, after he received backing from president of baseball operations David Stearns.

Despite a 10-21 start, which included a 12-game losing streak, the organization isn’t pinning the current state of the team on the manager.

“We know our record is not what we want, and we know we are capable of more,” Stearns told MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo. “We don’t view this as a manager problem, and we don’t intend to make a change.”

Through 31 games, the Mets have scored the second-fewest runs (106), recorded the fifth-fewest hits (235), posted the worst OPS (.631) and are tied for the third-worst batting average (.227) in MLB. Injuries have played a part in the dismal start, with shortstop Francisco Lindor, outfielder Luis Robert Jr, infielder Jorge Polanco, starting pitcher Kodai Senga and reliever A.J. Minter currently on the injured list. Juan Soto also missed 15 games due to a calf strain.

While the Boston Red Sox and Philadelphia Phillies recently dismissed their managers, Stearns and team owner Steve Cohen have reportedly not discussed moving on from the 46-year-old Mendoza, who was hired in 2004 and led the team to the NLCS the following year.

Stearns and the front office are hoping for a repeat of 2024, Mendoza’s first season in charge, when the Mets began the season 24-35 and finished 89-73 to earn one of the NL wild cards.

Ahead of spring training in February, Cohen said he gets more “annoyed” each year that the team doesn’t win and that “table stakes is making the playoffs” in 2026 and missing out two straight seasons is “not good.”

Mendoza, who is in the final guaranteed year of his contract, is getting this lifeline as the team begins a nine-game road trip on which it will play the Los Angeles Angels, Colorado Rockies and Arizona Diamondbacks. The Mets will return home May 12 to face the Detroit Tigers before the first Subway Series of the season against the New York Yankees.

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After a little over a month’s worth of baseball games, we’re slowly seeing how the season could potentially shape up based on those who are leading and those disappointing in their respective divisions. While there are some teams leading the way that aren’t entirely shocking—looking at you, New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers—there are quite a few surprises as well.

On this episode of the Baseball Bar-B-Cast, Jake Mintz and Jordan Shusterman play their annual standings golf draft and try to determine how much stock they’re putting into the current standings. With surprising teams like the New York Mets and Boston Red Sox at the bottom of their divisions, will they actually stay there for the whole season or will things shake up as they normally do over the 162-game grind?

Later, Jake and Jordan talk about the St. Louis Cardinals becoming the first team to get a mop on the road this year, as well as the Philadelphia Phillies sweeping their doubleheader against the struggling San Francisco Giants. The guys then take a look at the mess that was the month of April for the New York Mets, highlight an incredible achievement by Nick Kurtz and make their picks for this week’s edition of The Good, The Bad & The Uggla.

2:21 – The Opener: Division standings draft

37:57 – Around The League: Cardinals doing some mopping

44:41 – Miserable month for Mets

52:43 – Nick Kurtz knows how to walk

54:44 – The Good

1:00:28 – The Bad

1:07:22 – The Uggla

Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images Photo by David Berding/Getty Images

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If the Toronto Raptors are going to stave off elimination Friday, they’ll have to do it without Brandon Ingram. The All-Star forward was ruled out for Friday’s Game 6 vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers due to a heel injury.

Ingram left the team’s Game 5 loss to the Cavaliers on Wednesday due to the injury. He finished with one point and two assists in 11 minutes of play during the 125-120 loss.

Ingram originally sustained the injury during the regular season, missing a few games down the stretch with a heel issue. While he returned for the team’s final six games of the regular season — and first five games of the playoffs — Ingram apparently aggravated the injury Wednesday.

Raptors head coach Darko Rajaković confirmed as much after Game 5, per ESPN.

“He re-aggravated the heel on one play. We tried to re-tape him. At halftime, he tried to activate to see if he could be ready for the second half, and he was not ready to come and play in the second half. Tomorrow we’ll know more when we do more evaluations.”

With Ingram out for Game 6, the Raptors will need to lean more on Scottie Barnes, who dealt with his own injury issues coming out of Wednesday’s game. Despite injuring his quad during the contest, Barnes is available to play in Game 6.

“He’s feeling good,” Rajaković said of Barnes pregame, per TSN’s Josh Lewenberg. “It’s awesome to be young and recover quickly.”

Cavaliers-Raptors has been among the most exciting first-round playoff matchups so far. After taking a 2-0 lead in the series, the Cavaliers dropped the next two games, tying things up. Cleveland came away with a close victory in Game 5.

While the Raptors have shown a willingness to hang around with the Cavaliers all series, picking up a win Friday will prove difficult. Ingram was the team’s leading scorer in the regular season, averaging 21.5 points per game.

The calendar has moved to May, which means it’s time to get some positional Shuffle Ups your way. We have enough data to form some actionable opinions (in some cases), or at least educated guesses (in some other cases).

The players below are salaried and ranked as if I were entering a fresh draft tonight. What’s happened to this point is an audition, nothing more. Don’t get hung up on the salaries in a vacuum, which are just comparison tools. Players at the same salary are considered even.

Most of the players who have 1B or 3B eligibility in Yahoo leagues are on this list. I excluded anyone currently on the IL (Eugenio Suárez, for example) and anyone with catcher eligibility (we’ll rank those guys with the catchers). I also ignored anyone in the minors, with one late exception.

Have some respectful disagreement? That’s good, that’s why we have a game. Share your thoughts anytime on social media: catch me on Twitter/X or on Bluesky.

And away we go.

The Big Tickets

• $36 José Ramírez

• $30 Sal Stewart

• $29 Matt Olson

• $28 Nick Kurtz

I was concerned about the Cleveland offense to begin the year and that’s been valid, as the Guardians stand 24th in runs. But Ramírez has more walks than strikeouts and is still swiping bases aggressively, even in his age-33 season. He’s already a walk-in Hall of Famer.

Maybe this salary looks high for Stewart, but I was tempted to go even higher. He’s a five-category contributor and he’s controlling his at-bats, with a decent walk rate and an acceptable strikeout rate. All of his hard-hit sliders are Kool-Aid red. I wonder if the Reds regret not fast-tracking him last year, but Stewart is here to stay now.

Some Confusing Veteran Stars

• $27 Vladimir Guerrero

• $26 Manny Machado

• $25 Junior Caminero

• $24 Bryce Harper

• $22 Jazz Chisholm Jr.

• $22 Freddie Freeman

Guerrero is paid like a superstar and there’s plenty to like on his profile. The .354 average speaks for itself and it’s mostly supported through his hard-hit rate. He’s almost impossible to strike out and he’s also carrying a plus walk rate. But Guerrero’s bat tricks don’t include a power profile — he’s still carrying a major ground-ball bias, and his pull rate is under the league average, too. It’s hard to remember a world where Kid Guerrero led the majors in home runs (five years ago, with 48); at this point, it will feel fortunate if he makes it back to last year’s 23.

Chisholm still carries a strikeout problem despite acceptable walk and chase rates. There’s two ways to slice that — you appreciate his respectable zone judgment, but it also means he’s getting beat inside the strike zone more than you’d like. Normally, when you see a .202 average and a .334 slugging tied to a presumable star, you assume the bad-luck signs must be flashing, but Chisholm’s hard-hit metrics support those puny stats. Alas, we can’t go too low on Chisholm, as he’s on pace for about 15 homers and 50 steals.

Harper is a better real-life player than fantasy option these days, not that 2026 Harper is a treat in either column. His running game might be shut down for good and his slugging percentage has snuck below .500 the last two years. The disappointing Philly lineup (he’s part of it, obviously) hasn’t helped his run production. And Harper will likely need maintenance at some point; he hasn’t made it to 150 games since 2019.

The Kids Are Alright

• $20 JJ Wetherholt

• $20 Austin Riley

• $19 Kevin McGonigle

• $19 Peter Alonso

• $18 Christian Walker

• $18 Alec Burleson

• $18 Munetaka Murakami

• $18 Josh Naylor

• $17 Yandy Diaz

• $17 Maikel García

• $17 Alex Bregman

• $15 Liam Hicks

• $15 Ryan O’Hearn

• $15 José Caballero

• $15 Jonathan Aranda

• $14 Willson Contreras

• $14 Max Muncy

• $14 Bo Bichette

I’m over the moon for both Wetherholt and McGonigle, but Wetherholt gets a slightly better rank because he’s offering immediate category juice. Both players have been tabbed as future batting champions, and McGonigle might have the chops to do it as a rookie. We also love that both kids are carrying multiple positions in Yahoo leagues.

I enjoy a good Murakami novel and I’ve enjoyed the first chapter of Chicago’s Murakami — 12 homers, 25 walks. He’s losing 78 batting-average points to left-handed pitching but his power has played against all handedness. The strikeout rate is a mess, of course, but at least he’s swinging at strikes and making loud contact when he does connect. Adam Dunn was a fun player for several seasons, a man defined by the Three True Outcomes. Maybe that’s in Murakami’s range.

I was hoping Alonso had a history of poor starts, but his month-by-month profile is rather balanced. Last year, he pushed off to a .343 open, with seven homers and 28 RBI. This lousy start is new territory, so perhaps it’s just another case of a big-name player changing teams and struggling to immediately justify a meaty contract. The expected stats won’t comfort you much with Alonso, but he’s still just 31, he deserves some patience.

The Two Vargases

• $13 Rafael Devers

• $13 Vinnie Pasquantino

• $12 Josh Jung

• $12 Matt Chapman

• $11 Miguel Vargas

• $11 Colson Montgomery

• $11 Brendan Donovan

• $10 Jac Caglianone

• $8 Ildemaro Vargas

• $8 Carlos Correa

• $7 Jake Bauers

• $7 Jeremiah Jackson

• $7 Nolan Arenado

• $7 Daniel Schneemann

• $7 Dominic Smith

• $7 Casey Schmitt

• $7 Tyler Soderstrom

• $7 Ernie Clement

Devers has now played around five months of baseball with the Giants and the returns are in: .228/.323/.414, with 22 homers. He’s obviously a zero on the bases. His roomy home park doesn’t do him any favors, where the slash is .221/.316/.430. It’s fair to criticize the Red Sox for the timing of the Devers trade, and the meager return. But it’s also possible Boston was shrewd to get out from a Devers contract that’s likely to become an albatross soon. Keep in mind, Devers offers no defensive value.

A lot of fantasy managers will see Chicago’s Vargas hitting .215 and automatically discount him, which is a mistake. The category juice is here — six homers, five steals. And he’s been mildly unlucky with his outcomes; his batted-ball profile suggests a .240 average and .467 slugging, roto-worthy stats. All of his plate-discipline metrics are above code, and he’s still just 26. This is a hitter on the rise.

Arizona’s Vargas is a much trickier mystery to solve. Everything he’s done this year has been wonderful and metric-supported; his expected batting average is .351, his expected slugging .520. But we’re talking about a 34-year-old journeyman who’s been a below-average offensive player almost every step of the way (a mediocre 86 OPS+). I’m rooting for Vargas because I love players who swing at anything but make contact anyway, not to mention he covers multiple positions and he’s become a recent pickup of mine. But this is the type of player you extend a tiny leash towards; be ready to bail at the first sign of extended trouble. Root with your heart, but make decisions with your head.

Bargain Bin

• $6 Troy Johnston

• $6 Luis Arráez

• $6 Isaac Paredes

• $6 Spencer Torkelson

• $6 T.J. Rumfield

• $5 José Fernandez

• $5 Oswald Peraza

• $5 Mauricio Dubon

• $5 Luis García Jr.

• $5 Matt Shaw

• $5 Jake Burger

• $5 Spencer Steer

• $5 Nathaniel Lowe

• $5 Kazuma Okamoto

• $5 Colt Keith

• $4 Brooks Lee

• $4 Josh Bell

• $4 Nolan Gorman

• $4 Brady House

• $4 Luke Raley

• $4 Nolan Schanuel

• $4 Royce Lewis

• $3 Nick Gonzales

• $3 Willi Castro

• $3 Chase Meidroth

• $3 Alec Bohm

• $3 Noelvi Marte

• $2 Edouard Julien

• $2 Gavin Sheets

• $2 David Hamilton

• $2 Amed Rosario

• $2 Brett Baty

• $2 Caleb Durbin

• $2 Marcelo Mayer

• $1 Curtis Mead

• $1 Kyle Karros

• $1 Mark Vientos

• $1 Yoan Moncada

• $1 Jake Cronenworth

• $1 Kyle Manzardo

• $0 Ke’Bryan Hayes

Torkelson’s start felt worse to me than it actually is — he has the same OPS+ as last year, with some extra walks mitigating the drop in power. He’s still on pace to flirt with 30 homers, too. But the Tigers have justly moved him down in the lineup, and it’s likely Torkelson will never truly live up to being a No. 1 overall pick. Sometimes you have the top pick in the wrong year — the top three offensive players from that first round so far are Pete Crow-Armstrong (a legit star, largely due to his defense), Jordan Westburg (held back by injuries) and Garrett Mitchell (useful player). Timing can be cruel sometimes. 

Marte is the only minor-leaguer I included here. He’s a former rated prospect and perhaps the Reds were hasty in sending him to the minors after just 11 games. Marte’s mashed at Triple-A, predictably (.404/.466/.615), and should eventually get another chance in the majors. Ke’Bryan Hayes is a defensive wizard, but he’s never going to hit much.

Talk about a wide open Kentucky Derby.

When the starting gate opens at 6:57 p.m. Saturday at Churchill Downs in Louisville, 20 3-year-olds will race in the 152nd running of the Derby, the first leg of the Triple Crown.

The morning line favorite is 4-1, the longest shot is 50-1 and there are 18 other horses at various odds. Based on their past performances, the unpredictability of 3-year-olds running 1 1/4 miles before more than 100,000 screaming fans, probably means half of the field has a legitimate chance of winning the Derby.

So who will win the “Run for the Roses,” America’s most complex and fascinating horse race?

That’s my job today. Here are Rick’s Picks:

First: Chief Wallabee, 8-1Trainer Bill Mott and jockey Junior Alvarado won the 2025 Derby with Sovereignty and I see them repeating this year. If it happens, they will be the first trainer/jockey combo to win consecutive Derby races since trainer Lucien Laurin and jockey Ron Turcotte in 1972 and 1973 with Riva Ridge and Secretariat.

Chief Wallabee finished third in the Florida Derby despite a terrible trip. He was only a half-length behind Commandment and The Puma, two other Derby horses I like.

Mott, a two-time Derby winner, has added blinkers for this race, probably to keep Chief Wallabee focused. Mott has his horse ready.

Second: Commandment, 6-1Commandment won the Grade 1 Florida Derby on March 28 at Gulfstream Park by a nose over The Puma.

He broke his maiden Nov. 1 at Churchill Downs, starting his four-race winning streak.

Luis Saez, 0 for 12 in the Derby, will ride Commandment for the first time in the Kentucky Derby, as previous riders Irad Ortiz Jr. (Renegade) and Flavien Prat (Emerging Market) will be on other horses.

Commandment is trained by Brad Cox, 1 for 12 in the Derby, winning with Mandaloun (via disqualification) in 2021.

Third: The Puma, 10-1Trained by Gustavo Delgado, who won the 2023 Derby with Mage, and ridden by Javier Castellano, The Puma lost the most competitive Kentucky Derby prep (Florida Derby) by a nose.

I’m concerned that The Puma has only one win in four starts. He always seems to be close.

The same thing will happen in the Derby.

Fourth: Renegade, 4-1If Renegade, trained by Todd Pletcher, a two-time Derby winner, drew any post position besides the rail, he probably would be my Derby selection.

It’s been 40 years (Ferdinand in 1986) since a horse won the Kentucky Derby from the No. 1 post.

He’s ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr. , the best jockey in the United States. Despite his career success, Ortiz never has finished in the money in nine Derby mounts.

While Pletcher has two Derby wins, he has had 65 Derby starters, a record.

Because of his post position, I see Renegade immediately falling back at the start, then making a late charge down the stretch.

The Philadelphia Eagles have signed rookie wide receiver Makai Lemon to a fully guaranteed contract on Thursday.

The 20th overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft has signed a rookie four-year deal with the Philadelphia Eagles. NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport confirmed the deal Thursday: a four-year, fully guaranteed arrangement carrying an $11.5 million signing bonus.

#Eagles first-round WR Makai Lemon signed his rookie contract today. He gets a 4-year fully guaranteed deal that includes a $11.5 million dollar signing bonus. Deal was done by Ian Grutman and David Ben-Zaken of GSE Worldwide. pic.twitter.com/tQ8cF0Lo7X

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) April 30, 2026

The deal is worth roughly $5 million per year and totals just over $20.8 million over the course of the contract.

During the draft, the Eagles traded the No. 23, 114, and 137 to the Dallas Cowboys to move into the 20th slot to select Lemon, while also giving up a 2027 seventh rounder. During the draft, it was reported that Lemon had been receiving calls from the Pittsburgh Steelers, who had interest in taking him.

At the post-draft news conference, Eagles general manager Howie Roseman would say, ” He has the ability to separate in man coverage, out of the slot, he can play outside. Really good with the ball in his hands,” Roseman said. Head coach Nick Sirianni added simply, “Insane ability to catch the ball in contested situations. I love his toughness.”

The Eagles’ WR1, A.J. Brown, is expected to be dealt over the course of the next few months, so the Eagles were hot on the trail to sign another weapon behind DeVonta Smith.

This article originally appeared on Touchdown Wire: Eagles Makai Lemon gets a fully guaranteed contract worth $20 mill