The questions that will decide the winner of a thrilling Raptors-Cavaliers series

There’s an excitement attached to the unknown, particularly when it comes to basketball. It’s a big reason why I was initially drawn to the first-round matchup between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Toronto Raptors. 

There’s an inherent style clash between the two teams. The Raptors with an aggressive, versatile defense and a half-court offense (10th during the regular season) that can hit more notes than you think; the Cavaliers with an electric, star-led offense with a defense that can hit real high notes depending on the personnel.

Normally, when prepping for a playoff matchup, you can glean some insights based on their regular-season meetings. You couldn’t really do that this time around; while the Raptors won all three games, all of those games occurred before Thanksgiving. Multiple key pieces were missing in each matchup; heck, the James Harden trade was nearly three months away. 

In short, we were flying blind heading into this series — at least compared to others. We got a real look at Hawks-Knicks two weeks before the playoffs started, for example.

I’m pleased to announce that this best-of-seven has become a best-of-three, with a pivotal Game 5 on the horizon. 

The Cavs took care of business at home behind their coverage-breaking sets and nuclear shot-making (124.7 offensive rating). The Raptors returned the favor during their homestand, leaning on their defensive versatility to flip matchups and bog down the Cavaliers’ high-powered attack (99.5 defensive rating). 

As we enter the final sprint of this series, we’re going to examine the subplots that will ultimately decide the winner.

Let’s dig in, shall we?

During the regular season, the Cavaliers were one of seven teams to generate at least one point per possession (1.01 PPP) on trips featuring a pick-and-roll. Filter for just the Harden Era (Feb. 7 onward) and that remains true, with a slight bump (1.02 PPP).

At their best in this series (the wins), the Cavaliers have been able to manipulate the matchups they want for Harden or Donovan Mitchell to face, then putting the Raptors in no-win situations with their collective skill level and spacing principles. 

An early favorite for me was the Cavaliers spacing a shooter in a corner and having them relocate to the wing during the drive so there would be no help present on the roller.

Mitchell was able to boogie his way into pull-ups and impressive drives; Harden put pressure on the Raptors with his drives and (late) playmaking. Even if the Raptors were able to handle the initial action, the Cavaliers did a good job of slowing into secondary attacks and winning later in the clock. 

That has completely flipped during the last two games. 

There have been loud lineup and matchup changes from the Raptors. They’ve upsized against the Cavaliers’ star backcourt: Ja’Kobe Walter replaced Jamal Shead ahead of Game 3 to assume the Mitchell assignment, while Scottie Barnes has increasingly spent more time on Harden.

The most notable downstream effect of Barnes guarding “down” the positional spectrum is RJ Barrett having to guard “up” in his place. He spent some time on Evan Mobley in Game 2 — that didn’t go well — but has largely assumed the Jarrett Allen assignment over the past two games.

That adjustment has taken the wind out of the sails of the Harden-Allen partnership. Allen set roughly 14 on-ball screens per game for Harden during the regular season; he set a total of 16 during the Raptors homestand.

With size on the guards and a wing on the Cavs’ most frequent on-ball screener, it’s become more of a chore to run their pet actions. In their worst moments, it’s been an absolute slog for the Cavaliers to generate anything positive.

On a quieter note, the Raptors have also dialed back their pickup points compared to earlier in the series. Instead of meeting (and attempting to pester) a ball-handler behind half-court — opening up some half-court screening and giving said-ball-handler a full head of steam — they’ve largely waited for those guys to cross half-court before ramping up their pressure. 

Even when the Cavaliers have tried to tap into higher screens, the Raptors have done a better job of navigating and rotating.

Here’s the average pickup distance per game and the percentage of possessions there was a backcourt pickup from the Raptors, courtesy of Second Spectrum:

  • Game 1: 45.3 feet, 15.5% of possessions

  • Game 2: 40.8 feet, 11.3%

  • Game 3: ~38 feet, 5.3%

  • Game 4: 40.6 feet, 12.7%

  • First two games: 43.1 feet, 13.4%

  • Last two games: 39.3 feet, ~9%

Those adjustments, in addition to the Cavaliers’ off-the-dribble shooting falling off a cliff, has led to a massive dip in efficiency. 

Here’s the game-by-game split of their pick-and-roll effectiveness:

  • Game 1: 73 picks, 1.24 PPP

  • Game 2: 81 picks, 1.14 PPP

  • Game 3: 78 picks, 0.88 PPP

  • Game 4: 79 picks, 0.93 PPP

Obviously, pick-and-rolls aren’t the only way to generate efficient half-court offense. But the easiest way for the Cavaliers to regain their half-court flow will be to flip some of these adjustments on their heads.

It could be as simple as introducing more Ram screens into their offense — with Mobley and Allen screening for each other in hopes of throwing off the defense behind the play, or forcing a switch altogether before screening for Harden or Mitchell. 

Here’s an example from a matchup with the Knicks, with Dean Wade setting the Ram screen for Allen before the Mitchell-Allen pick-and-roll:

It may just be more intention in transition or early offensive looks; all four (you read that right) of Allen’s screens for Harden in Game 4 came in those situations. Either way, something has to flip on that front for the Cavaliers.

The volume scorer is an easy archetype to understand, but a difficult one to contextualize at times. The game is about getting a bucket; the players who can do so without assistance become incredibly valuable during this time of year. Being able to take over — for a half, a quarter, or even a two-minute stretch — can genuinely flip a game on its head.

Ask Brandon Ingram.

It’s been a wonky series for Ingram overall. He clearly has the respect of the Cavaliers, primarily being defended by Wade in this series and even getting Mobley, the 2024-25 Defensive Player of the Year, for stretches. 

Off-ball physicality and face-guarding have made his touches more difficult to come by, and slower to get into. Ingram received 38 off-ball screens (20 in Game 1, 18 in Game 2) during the Cleveland stretch; he received 16 total (5 in Game 3, 11 in Game 4) while in Toronto. 

Per Second Spectrum, he’s seen at least one help defender on 34 of his 39 drives (87.2%) in this series. That 87.2% clip ranks sixth among the 41 players to log at least 30 drives this postseason; that’s also a substantial increase from his regular season figure (75.2%).

Already a midrange heavy scorer, the added layers of help have made forays to the rim less accessible. His regular season rim/middy/3 split — the percentage of shots he takes at the rim (20%), midrange (55%), and from deep (25%) — is already one of the more extreme ones we have in the league; it’s at 19-58-23 so far in this series.

I’m going to be keeping an eye on how the Raptors work to get him touches. Seeking him out in transition — or him getting busier on the defensive glass (3.3 defensive rebounds per game in this series) to jump-start those opportunities himself — could be a way to get him going against a tilted defense.

I want to give a quick hat-tip to the Raptors for sprinkling in more flat spacing looks (example here) for Ingram to isolate against less help. If he’s going to hunt shots in the midrange anyway, you might as well clear the wings to give him more room to work with. 

While the off-ball volume has lowered over the past two games, the combination of back screens to set up seals or low-block touches, and the wide pindowns set lower on the floor have been fruitful in spots. I’d like to see them sprinkle in more of those compared to their usual Iverson screen setups. 

Beyond that, as basic as it sounds, what do the next two or three games look like if Ingram simply knocks down jumpers?

The playoffs are inherently smaller samples to suss through, so there is a world where the cold streak simply continues. Them’s the breaks, and all that. But if this flips at all, it could be the half-court jolt in the arm the Raptors need to take a firm hold of this series.

  • The possession battle is going to loom large in this one. In Cleveland’s two wins, the Cavaliers won the turnover battle, rebounding battle, or both. In Toronto’s two wins, the Raptors won the turnover battle, rebounding battle, or both. I’m sure Kenny Atkinson is still having nightmares about Collin Murray-Boyles; he had five offensive rebounds in both Game 3 and Game 4 — including some pivotal ones in the fourth quarter of Game 4. Who’s going to tighten the screws there?

  • Speaking of Murray-Boyles, can the Cavs find a way to poke at the lineups that feature him and Barnes together? The Raptors are plus-12 in 74 minutes with that duo on the floor, with the Raptors boasting a stingy 112.5 defensive rating in those minutes. I was intrigued by one of the late-game possessions in Game 4 where Murray-Boyles, taking on the Harden assignment, was caught being a little too aggressive off the ball. Could that be a way to carve out some space and neutralize some of his ability?

  • Which version of Jaylon Tyson are we going to get moving forward? His blend of shooting, defense and overall athleticism provided real value to the Cavaliers during the regular season. His minutes have increased over the past two games; in light of how small the Cavs have been at times in their single-big lineups, he could be a real swing factor moving forward. They’ve lost the Mobley-only minutes in this series (-19 in 80 minutes) overall, but I wonder if we see more of the Dennis Schröder-Mitchell-Sam Merrill-Tyson-Mobley group (+4 in nine minutes) moving forward.

Fantasy Baseball Trade Tips: These 8 batters are off to hot starts — should you sell or buy high?

After looking at buy-low options in the previous two editions, this week’s article focuses entirely on hitters who are off to excellent starts. Wise fantasy baseball managers will use advanced stats to differentiate those who are earning their high levels of success vs. those who have been fortunate with batted-ball luck. As you’ll see, the players listed below have similar surface production but wide variance in underlying data.

Ozzie Albies, 2B, Braves: A 29-year-old who is on pace to threaten his career-best marks in homers and batting average, Albies should be easy to hype on the trade market. Unfortunately, his batted-ball tendencies forecast major regression, as his 86.5 mph average exit velocity and 2.9% barrel rate correspond to a .250 hitter, even when factoring in his strong strikeout rate (12.5%). It’s also concerning that despite earning more trips to first base than he has deserved, Albies has yet to swipe a base (he has been caught stealing twice).

Xavier Edwards, 2B/SS, Marlins: At the plate, this is the best version of Edwards that we have seen. He is hitting the ball harder than ever (89.7 mph average exit velocity) and has a 5.3% barrel rate after previously logging a rate below 2.0% in each season. My concern is that he isn’t running the bases aggressively, as he has turned all these trips to first base into just four steals. His sprint speed is slightly lower than in previous seasons, and even with the improved batted-ball tendencies, Edwards won’t make a significant fantasy impact without swiping 30 bags.

Hunter Goodman, C, Rockies: Thanks to the depth at the catcher position, I will often recommend cashing out on overvalued catchers and using the waiver wire to find a replacement. Such is the case with Goodman, who seems like he is on his way to a worthy follow-up to his breakout 2025 season. However, his .250 average has been propped up by a .360 BABIP, which is overshadowing a 38.7% strikeout rate that is second worst among qualified players. Goodman could cut back on the whiffs, but I would be happy to swap him for a useful player at a different position before adding the likes of Dillon Dingler, Francisco Alvarez or Carter Jensen.

Andy Pages, OF, Dodgers: Here comes the latest Dodgers superstar. After all, Pages ranks eighth in baseball with a .324 average and sixth with 25 RBI while also on pace for roughly a 30-25 season. Not so fast. The elite batting mark stems from an unsustainable .380 BABIP. And even with the homer-happy nature of Dodger Stadium, Pages will struggle to maintain a 15.2% HR/FB rate unless he improves his 6.0% barrel rate. He could be swapped for a more established outfielder who is off to a less impressive start.

Michael Harris II, OF, Braves: After years of teasing fantasy managers, Harris may finally be ready for a breakout season. And really, we are at a sensible time for a major leap, given that he is just 25 years old and is already playing in his fifth season. Harris has quickly gone from someone with an average quality of contact to posting elite marks in average exit velocity (94.5 mph) and barrel rate (18.5%). He has also cut his strikeout rate to 16.3%. Harris could be a .300 hitter with 30 home runs. And although his steals total (2) is unimpressive, he already has a trio of 20-steal seasons on his résumé.

Freddie Freeman, 1B, Dodgers: Wise fantasy managers may be able to market Freeman as a veteran in decline. After all, the 36-year-old is posting his lowest OPS (.774) since 2010. He has been terrific this year, as his 11.4% strikeout rate is a lifetime-best mark, and his batted-ball data points, including a 92.1 mph average exit velocity and a 14.4% barrel rate, are the second-best marks of his illustrious 17-year career. The Dodgers’ vaunted offense has yet to kick things into high gear, and Freeman could collect counting stats in bunches when they do.

Dillon Dingler, C, Tigers: I promise this is the last time I’ll write about Dingler, who I have found various ways to mention on a weekly basis this season. The 27-year-old leads all catchers in xBA, xSLG and xwOBA. His actual stats are decent, but they don’t fully represent how well he’s playing. I would like to get Dingler, who is just 43% rostered, as a throw-in from a trade where I part with a top-shelf catcher for a significant player at a different position.

Daylen Lile, OF, Nationals: Lile is a solid all-around talent who doesn’t dominate one category but contributes across the board. The career .291 hitter maintains the necessary strikeout rate and quality of contact to consistently post a helpful batting mark. He has enough power to produce 15-20 homers and enough speed to swipe 10-15 bases. And at his age (23), his skills should continue to improve. The icing on the cake is that the Nats, who rank fourth in baseball in runs scored, seem to have turned the corner as an offense. Like Dingler, Lile (63% rostered) can be thrown into a larger deal.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander trolls Dillon Brooks with ‘Cancun on 3’ jersey after Thunder sweep

Phoenix Suns forward Dillon Brooks has a history of getting under his opponent’s skin. Throughout the team’s series against the Oklahoma City Thunder, Brooks tried his best to do that with Thunder star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, but his attempts didn’t seem to land.

After the Thunder swept the Rockets, Gilgeous-Alexander went so far as to compliment Brooks, saying the Rockets instigator was a “really good guy.” The two even shared an embrace on the court and some friendly words when the series was over.

But that friendliness didn’t last long. On Tuesday, Gilgeous-Alexander dropped a photo dump on Instagram which featured an image of Brooks wearing a “Cancun on 3” jersey.

Gilgeous-Alexander’s caption was also a nod to Brooks’ villain persona.

Brooks definitely took notice of the post, responding to it by saying, “Sounds like a ghost writer.” Brooks signed that comment with “The Villain.” Rapper Drake also commented, because of course he did.

Overall, this feud — if you can call it that — feels pretty tame, especially considering Brooks’ history.

Despite Brooks’ presence, Gilgeous-Alexander still managed to put up some excellent numbers in the Thunder’s four-game sweep of the Suns. Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 33.8 points in the series … and refused to engage in Brooks’ trolling tactics.

With the Thunder moving on, Gilgeous-Alexander can now focus on leading the team to back-to-back titles. After dominating in the regular season and the playoffs last year, the Thunder turned in a similarly strong performance this season, once again earning the top seed in the Western Conference.

While Brooks and the Suns turned in a good year, the team wound up as the No. 8 seed in the playoffs, meaning the road will only get tougher for Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder from here.

USDA and EXIM Announce Historic Partnership to Put American Farmers First and Boost Exports

(Washington, D.C., April 29, 2026) – Today, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced an expanded partnership with the Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM) to increase domestic agricultural production and exports, while reducing the agricultural trade deficit. Alongside this partnership, USDA is formally launching the Financial Assurance to Revitalize Markets, or FARM, Initiative, a comprehensive effort to strengthen and modernize its export credit guarantee program in support of U.S. agricultural competitiveness.

Tigers’ Javier Báez carted off field after ‘scary’ injury on awkward slide into first base

The Detroit Tigers are holding their breath on Javier Báez after a freak play at first base.

The veteran utilityman had to be carted off the field in the fifth inning of Detroit’s 5-2 defeat against the Atlanta Braves. The injury occurred on a grounder to Braves shortstop Mauricio Dubón, whose throw to first went wide.

Braves first baseman Matt Olson caught the errant ball and went for the tag on Báez, who tried to twist away from Olson’s glove and ended up sliding late into first with his right leg under his body.

Báez was in clear pain and couldn’t put walk on his right foot after the play, leading the Tigers’ athletic training staff to call in the cart.

Tigers manager A.J. Hinch confirmed it was a right ankle injury to reporters after the game, via Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press, saying, “That one looked scary.” Báez will reportedly undergo imaging on the ankle Wednesday.