• What: Michigan State vs. Northwestern
• When: 6:30 p.m. Thursday
• Where: Breslin Center
• TV/Radio: Big Ten Network/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; SiriusXM Ch. 195 (MSU broadcast), 372 (Northwestern broadcast)
• Records/Rankings: MSU is 13-2 overall and 3-1 in the Big Ten, and enters the week ranked No. 12 in the Associated Press poll and No. 13 USA TODAY Coaches poll, No. 12 in the NET rankings used by the NCAA tournament selection committee, and No. 12 per the college basketball analytics site Kenpom.com. Northwestern is 8-6 overall and 0-3 in the Big Ten, and unranked in both major polls. The Wildcats are No. 82 in the NET rankings and No. 61 per Kenpom.
• Betting line: MSU -11.5
• Coaches:Michigan State — Tom Izzo is 750-304 in his 31st season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Northwestern — Chris Collins is 202-196 in his 13th season as a head coach, all with the Wildcats.
• Series: MSU leads 96-42 all-time and won the only meeting last season, in Evanston.
Projected lineups
MSU
C (15) Carson Cooper (6-11) 9.7
PF (0) Jaxon Kohler (6-9) 14.2
SF (55) Coen Carr (6-5) 11.9
SG (99) Divine Ugochukwu (6-3) 5.5
PG (1) Jeremy Fears Jr. (6-2) 11.9
Northwestern
C (22) Arrinten Page (6-11) 15.0
F (2) Nick Martinelli (6-7) 23.0
F (44) Angelo Ciaravino (6-6) 6.9
G (11) Jordan Clayton (6-2) 2.9
G (4) Jayden Reid (5-10) 11.6
• MSU update: The Spartans play their third Big Ten game in seven days and their second in front of the Alumni Izzone. After an 80-51 win over USC on Monday night, MSU is the No. 2 team in the country in defensive efficiency, per Kenpom. The Spartans are also the second-best defensive rebounding team in the country and are No. 12 in offensive rebounding. They’re also No. 2 nationally in assist-to-made-basket percentage at 69.7%. Jeremy Fears Jr. remains No. 2 in the country in assists at 9.0 per game. Jaxon Kohler is No. 2 in the Big Ten in 3-point shooting percentage at 53.7%.
The Spartans should be as close to fully healthy as they’ve been since Thanksgiving. Sophomore guard Divine Ugochukwu returned Monday after missing a game with an illness. And freshman forward Cam Ward said Tuesday that his injured wrist, which he revealed was a bit more than a sprain, finally has full range of motion again and he’s regaining increasing confidence in his game.
• Northwestern update: The Wildcats are coming off an 84-78 home loss to Minnesota, the sort of defeat they have to avoid if they have any hope of making an NCAA tournament push. Winning at MSU on Thursday night would go a long way toward making up for some of their slip-ups during an 8-6 start. Northwestern’s best wins are at DePaul (108 in Kenpom) and a neutral site game against South Carolina (68). The Wildcats’ losses are to Oklahoma State (58), at Wisconsin (42), Ohio State (37) at home, Butler (56) in Indianapolis and then to the Gophers (91). This is largely a new team from a year ago, outside of one giant piece: forward Nick Martinelli, who, at 23.0 points per game, is one-tenth of a point behind the national scoring lead.
• Matchup analysis: The Wildcats have some good talent and should have a higher floor than they’ve shown this season. Martinelli is a chore to defend, a good player downhill, relentless and crafty and a capable shooter all the way out beyond the 3-point arc, where he shoots 50%. He spends most of his minutes at power forward for Northwestern. I think we’ll see a mix of Jaxon Kohler, Coen Carr and Cam Ward defending him. Overall, Northwestern has really struggled to shoot from the perimeter, hitting less than 32% of 3-point tries. It’s the Wildcats’ most debilitating weakness. They hit 6 of 23 in the loss to the Gophers and were also badly out-rebounded. That’s going to be a problem for them in this game. They’re nationally in the bottom quarter of teams in terms of defensive rebounding, meaning the Spartans are likely to feast on the offensive glass.
Northwestern does make teams work offensively. Opponents average 19 seconds per possession against the Wildcats, which is the most in the nation. South Florida transfer Jayden Reid can be a good point guard. He’s quick, is a decent finisher at the rim and is a more capable outside shooter than the 28% he’s been making this season. Freshman forward Tre Singleton, who’s been starting, was a terrific get for Chris Collins. He’s a powerful young player who’s flashed with some promising performances this season.
• Prediction: Northwestern has been a tricky team for MSU in recent years and Martinelli is worthy of respect. But other than the Wildcats’ potential ability to slow the Spartans’ break, I like this matchup for MSU. Plus, after Monday, MSU is now not only 10-1 against the point spread in its last 11 games in front of the Alumni Izzone, but the Spartans have averaged to win those games by 11 points more than the spread (That stat courtesy of Steve Beckman.). MSU might want to kick the students out and invite the alums back for the Jan. 30 game against Michigan.
• Make it: MSU 81, Northwestern 67
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Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on X @Graham_Coch and BlueSky @GrahamCouch.
This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: MSU basketball vs. Northwestern prediction, preview, TV, betting line