Each week during the 2025-26 NBA season, we will take a deeper dive into some of the league’s biggest storylines in an attempt to determine whether trends are based more in fact or fiction moving forward.

Last time: The Golden State Warriors are cooked

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Fact or Fiction: Nikola Jokić’s Denver Nuggets will be just fine

Nikola Jokić, the NBA’s best player, is hurt, and he is rarely so.

The ripple effects of a hyperextension to his left knee, which will cost him at least four weeks of the season, will be many. Because the NBA requires its players to appear in 65 games to be eligible for its postseason awards, Jokić’s quest to join Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Michael Jordan, Bill Russell, LeBron James and Wilt Chamberlain as the sixth player ever to win four MVP awards may be on hold for another year.

(The 65-game rule is revealing itself to be ridiculous, as both Jokić and Victor Wembanyama — once favorites to win the MVP and Defensive Player of the Year awards, respectively — may no longer be in the conversation for either honor before we reach the season’s midway point. The media is fully capable of weighing the entire scope of a player’s candidacy, including missed time, without an arbitrary cutoff.)

Here, though, we are more concerned with Jokić’s Denver Nuggets and what this injury means for them.

After all, the Nuggets, when healthy, or when healthier (we’ll get to their additional injury woes), looked every bit as good as the team that won the 2023 NBA championship, if not better. Certainly deeper. Because of Jokić they felt like the biggest threat to the Oklahoma City Thunder in a seven-game series, even as Wembanyama’s San Antonio Spurs beat the defending champs three times in a two-week span.

The Nuggets are, as we speak, in third place in the Western Conference, owners of a 23-10 record, comfortably on another side of the bracket where they would not have to face the Thunder until the Western Conference finals. It is right about where they wanted to be and where we expected them to be.

That was a big deal, too, because Jokić had maintained a 56-win pace in the absences of three starters — Aaron Gordon, Cam Johnson and Christian Braun — all of whom remain on the injury report. That is right: Jamal Murray, who could be in line for his first All-Star selection, is now the team’s sole healthy starter.

With the newly acquired Jonas Valančiūnas in place of Jokić and homegrown talents Peyton Watson, Spencer Jones and Jalen Pickett in tow, Murray led the Nuggets to a 106-103 victory against the Toronto Raptors in their first game without their offensive hub. Denver head coach David Adelman was visibly pleased with his team’s performance, knowing how difficult it is going to be to win at all without Jokić.

“It’s gonna be like this every night,” he said. “We’re gonna have to find a way to get to the fourth quarter.”

That will not be easy. When Jokić has been on the bench this season, the Nuggets have been outscored by 5.3 points per 100 possessions, operating at a 26-win pace. In a relatively small sample size, without Jokić, Gordon, Johnson and Braun, the Nuggets have been outscored by 19.8 points per 100 meaningful possessions, according to Cleaning the Glass, or worse than the bottom-dwelling Washington Wizards.

On the bright side, Denver has one of the league’s easiest schedules in January, featuring 11 games against could-be lottery teams, including a pair apiece against both the Wizards and Brooklyn Nets.

Then again, the Nuggets are now without Valančiūnas, too, as he suffered a right calf strain in the win over Toronto, and he too will miss at least four weeks. That leaves DaRon Holmes, a 2024 draft selection who has played a total of 34 minutes in his NBA career, as the team’s lone healthy center. This is bad.

[Get more Nuggets news: Denver team feed]

Just how bad is going to be the question. The Nuggets lead the sixth-place Minnesota Timberwolves by only three games in the loss column. Drop any lower than that, and Denver is in danger of losing its grip on a guaranteed playoff seed. And the seventh-place Phoenix Suns trail the Nuggets by just four losses.

It is likely that Denver takes a tumble down the standings. If they go 4-13 in the month of January — entirely within the realm of possibility — the Suns would only need to play .500 in order to catch them.

Remember, though, that Jokić will be back, as will Gordon, Johnson, Braun and Valančiūnas — all presumably by the All-Star break, when the Nuggets will have two months to play themselves back into championship contention. They should still operate at their 56-win pace, if not even better, and settle somewhere around 50 wins, which was good for anywhere from the third to the fifth seed last year.

Worse-case scenario: The Nuggets fall into a fourth or fifth seed and have to play the Thunder in the second round, where they took Oklahoma City to seven games — despite a similar litany of injuries — last season. Or worst-case scenario: They fall into the play-in tournament, where they would have to win one of two games (does anyone think they wouldn’t?) and could face OKC in the playoffs’ opening round.

Just as likely, the Nuggets could play their way back into the third seed. Or land the sixth seed.

Is either scenario really so bad? They will, in all likelihood, have to face the Thunder anyway, and couldn’t it be advantageous to play them earlier in the postseason, when the wear and tear of the playoffs on Jokić’s knee, Gordon’s hamstring and so on and so on will not be so harsh? And we could either be treated to one of the great first-round series of all time or a Western Conference finals for the ages.

Either way, the Nuggets are not cooked. They are merely on hiatus, as our League Pass watching will be less entertaining without Jokić in rotation. But we have seen enough to know: The Nuggets are capable of winning the title again, capable of beating the Thunder, so long as Jokić is healthy, and with two months still to build chemistry they can still hit the ground running in the playoffs, even if on the road.

And who knows: Maybe this experience for Watson, Jones and Pickett, plus all the other role players who could be called upon in a playoff series, will better prepare them for the moments that actually matter.

Determination: Fact. The Nuggets will be just fine.

Each week during the 2025-26 NBA season, we will take a deeper dive into some of the league’s biggest storylines in an attempt to determine whether trends are based more in fact or fiction moving forward.

Last time: The Golden State Warriors are cooked

---

Fact or Fiction: Nikola Jokić’s Denver Nuggets will be just fine

Nikola Jokić, the NBA’s best player, is hurt, and he is rarely so.

The ripple effects of a hyperextension to his left knee, which will cost him at least four weeks of the season, will be many. Because the NBA requires its players to appear in 65 games to be eligible for its postseason awards, Jokić’s quest to join Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Michael Jordan, Bill Russell, LeBron James and Wilt Chamberlain as the sixth player ever to win four MVP awards may be on hold for another year.

(The 65-game rule is revealing itself to be ridiculous, as both Jokić and Victor Wembanyama — once favorites to win the MVP and Defensive Player of the Year awards, respectively — may no longer be in the conversation for either honor before we reach the season’s midway point. The media is fully capable of weighing the entire scope of a player’s candidacy, including missed time, without an arbitrary cutoff.)

Here, though, we are more concerned with Jokić’s Denver Nuggets and what this injury means for them.

After all, the Nuggets, when healthy, or when healthier (we’ll get to their additional injury woes), looked every bit as good as the team that won the 2023 NBA championship, if not better. Certainly deeper. Because of Jokić they felt like the biggest threat to the Oklahoma City Thunder in a seven-game series, even as Wembanyama’s San Antonio Spurs beat the defending champs three times in a two-week span.

The Nuggets are, as we speak, in third place in the Western Conference, owners of a 23-10 record, comfortably on another side of the bracket where they would not have to face the Thunder until the Western Conference finals. It is right about where they wanted to be and where we expected them to be.

That was a big deal, too, because Jokić had maintained a 56-win pace in the absences of three starters — Aaron Gordon, Cam Johnson and Christian Braun — all of whom remain on the injury report. That is right: Jamal Murray, who could be in line for his first All-Star selection, is now the team’s sole healthy starter.

With the newly acquired Jonas Valančiūnas in place of Jokić and homegrown talents Peyton Watson, Spencer Jones and Jalen Pickett in tow, Murray led the Nuggets to a 106-103 victory against the Toronto Raptors in their first game without their offensive hub. Denver head coach David Adelman was visibly pleased with his team’s performance, knowing how difficult it is going to be to win at all without Jokić.

“It’s gonna be like this every night,” he said. “We’re gonna have to find a way to get to the fourth quarter.”

That will not be easy. When Jokić has been on the bench this season, the Nuggets have been outscored by 5.3 points per 100 possessions, operating at a 26-win pace. In a relatively small sample size, without Jokić, Gordon, Johnson and Braun, the Nuggets have been outscored by 19.8 points per 100 meaningful possessions, according to Cleaning the Glass, or worse than the bottom-dwelling Washington Wizards.

On the bright side, Denver has one of the league’s easiest schedules in January, featuring 11 games against could-be lottery teams, including a pair apiece against both the Wizards and Brooklyn Nets.

Then again, the Nuggets are now without Valančiūnas, too, as he suffered a right calf strain in the win over Toronto, and he too will miss at least four weeks. That leaves DaRon Holmes, a 2024 draft selection who has played a total of 34 minutes in his NBA career, as the team’s lone healthy center. This is bad.

[Get more Nuggets news: Denver team feed]

Just how bad is going to be the question. The Nuggets lead the sixth-place Minnesota Timberwolves by only three games in the loss column. Drop any lower than that, and Denver is in danger of losing its grip on a guaranteed playoff seed. And the seventh-place Phoenix Suns trail the Nuggets by just four losses.

It is likely that Denver takes a tumble down the standings. If they go 4-13 in the month of January — entirely within the realm of possibility — the Suns would only need to play .500 in order to catch them.

Remember, though, that Jokić will be back, as will Gordon, Johnson, Braun and Valančiūnas — all presumably by the All-Star break, when the Nuggets will have two months to play themselves back into championship contention. They should still operate at their 56-win pace, if not even better, and settle somewhere around 50 wins, which was good for anywhere from the third to the fifth seed last year.

Worse-case scenario: The Nuggets fall into a fourth or fifth seed and have to play the Thunder in the second round, where they took Oklahoma City to seven games — despite a similar litany of injuries — last season. Or worst-case scenario: They fall into the play-in tournament, where they would have to win one of two games (does anyone think they wouldn’t?) and could face OKC in the playoffs’ opening round.

Just as likely, the Nuggets could play their way back into the third seed. Or land the sixth seed.

Is either scenario really so bad? They will, in all likelihood, have to face the Thunder anyway, and couldn’t it be advantageous to play them earlier in the postseason, when the wear and tear of the playoffs on Jokić’s knee, Gordon’s hamstring and so on and so on will not be so harsh? And we could either be treated to one of the great first-round series of all time or a Western Conference finals for the ages.

Either way, the Nuggets are not cooked. They are merely on hiatus, as our League Pass watching will be less entertaining without Jokić in rotation. But we have seen enough to know: The Nuggets are capable of winning the title again, capable of beating the Thunder, so long as Jokić is healthy, and with two months still to build chemistry they can still hit the ground running in the playoffs, even if on the road.

And who knows: Maybe this experience for Watson, Jones and Pickett, plus all the other role players who could be called upon in a playoff series, will better prepare them for the moments that actually matter.

Determination: Fact. The Nuggets will be just fine.

• Celtic are winless in their past four league games against Rangers (D2 L2); they had only failed to win four of their previous 12 Old Firm derbies in the Scottish Premiership beforehand (W8 D3 L1).
• Both of the past two league Old Firm derbies have been drawn; Celtic and Rangers haven’t played out three successive league draws since October 2002.
• Celtic are winless in the past three occasions that their first league game of a calendar year has come against Rangers (D1 L2), although each were at Ibrox. When playing their league opener of a year at home to Rangers, Celtic are unbeaten in four (W2 D2) since a 4-2 defeat in 1994.
• Rangers have only lost their opening league match in one of the past 14 calendar years (W11 D2), going down 2-1 away to Kilmarnock in 2019.
• The last league meeting between Celtic and Rangers in August featured just nine shots and 0.34 expected goals. Since Opta have this data in the competition (from 2019-20), it’s the lowest xG on record in a Scottish Premiership match, and also the second-lowest shot tally in this time, ahead of only St Johnstone v Livingston in May 2021 (seven).
• Celtic have lost five of their 19 league games so far this season. It’s already their most defeats in a single campaign since 2020-21 (also five), while they last suffered more defeats in 2012-13 (seven).
• Rangers have won four of their past five league games (L1), just one fewer than they had in their first 14 this term (W5 D8 L1). Both of their defeats so far have been against league leaders Heart of Midlothian.
• This will be the first league Old Firm derby for both Celtic’s Wilfried Nancy and Rangers’ Danny Röhl.

Ex-Grizzlie De’Anthony Melton says Warriors had no business winning 2022 title originally appeared on NBC Sports Bay Area

SAN FRANCISCO – As an opponent in May 2022, De’Anthony Melton had a microscopic view of the Warriors’ last championship team. Now that he is on their payroll, he’s comfortable going public with what many have whispered for 3.5 years.

“In ‘22, they had no business winning the championship,” Melton, then with the Memphis Grizzlies, said during a guest appearance on the “Dubs Talk” podcast, which debuted Friday. “They had no business there. There were so many teams better than them. But they just fought. They just willed their way. And everybody played, they played their role.”

Melton is not alone in that reaction. Former Golden State general manager Bob Myers admitted nobody saw it coming. Coach Steve Kerr says the ’22 NBA Finals win over the Boston Celtics was a case of coming together at the right time – and having Stephen Curry.

The Warriors entered the 2022 playoffs as the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference, with a 53-29 record. The Grizzlies finished at 56-26 to earn the No. 2 seed and homecourt advantage in the conference semifinals against Golden State.

“We wanted to kill the dynasty so bad,” Melton recalled. “You had to show us. You had to come and really show us. It was like ‘OK, why are y’all so good, why are you so great? We’re not going to lay down, let y’all tell us why, but you got to come out here and get it.

“We really felt that day in and day out, and game in and game out, we just take it game by game because you never know what could happen. Next thing you know, you could be up 3-2.”

The Grizzlies, young and impetuous, saw the Warriors as old news that should be discarded from the elite.

“Some (Warriors) got families and kids,” Melton said. “They got paid. They were paid up already. We were all young and hungry. It was like ‘Come on with it.’ ”

The teams split the first two games in Memphis before the Warriors swept Games 3 and 4 at Chase Center. A 3-1 lead is considered “commanding,” but the Grizzlies responded with a 134-95 rout in Game 5. This was, again, a series.

Golden State answered with a 110-96 win in Game 6, banishing the Grizzlies and advancing to the Western Conference finals.

“In ’22, nobody thought the Warriors were going to go on to win, you know what I mean?” Melton said. “But it was crazy to see them having to go through us and that would be one of their tougher series.”

The Warriors had the fourth-best record in the league, but the Celtics entered the playoffs as the hottest team, going 26-6 over their last 32 games. Golden State was a slight favorite because of its postseason experience and championship core.

And Curry, whose spectacular Game 4 performance – 43 points when the rest of the starting lineup combined for 35 – tilted the series and moved him to the doorstep of his first Finals MVP award.

Melton, whose favorite team a decade ago was the Oklahoma City Thunder, had a perception of Curry at that time that matched that of many outside observers: Great shooter.

Melton’s perception of Curry as a teammate much of last season and this season is, well, greatly expanded.

“He’s amazing,” Melton said. “That’s all you could say sometimes. Dudes like that, they continue to put the work in, and they love the game so much that you see them day in and day out. Before, I was seeing him on the outside looking in. Now, I’m on the inside, seeing the work he puts in, the everyday work, the consistency that he has. You can see as to why he’s continued.

“His ability to shoot the ball is out of this world, but it’s his ability to be conditioned and run around, his physicality and just be able to still be able to get open and get a shot off and stuff like that. He’s averaging pretty much 30 (points per game) now – at 37 years old. You’ve just got to admire that type of stuff and just to help as much as possible.”

That admiration, however, does not change Melton’s view of the past, something he occasionally mentions to Gary Payton II, who was a pivotal player in the ’22 Finals.

“I talk to GP still, to this day, like ‘I don’t know how y’all won it ’22,’ ” Melton said. “I don’t. I don’t. I don’t know why or how or for what.”

Download and follow the Dubs Talk Podcast

How Garza’s resurgence is bolstering Celtics’ bench in several ways originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston

Perhaps the most surprising recent storyline as the Boston Celtics flip the calendar to 2026: The Luka Garza resurgence.

There was a point in mid-December where it felt like Garza might stay glued to the Boston bench. The team had struggled so mightily in his floor time through the first 15 games of the season that, even with rebounding woes and a lack of pure size, the Celtics elected to simply go small when Neemias Queta wasn’t on the court. Garza logged just 27 total minutes while piling up seven DNPs over an 11-game stretch.

But on Dec. 20 in Toronto, Joe Mazzulla went back to Garza. And the 27-year-old big man was ready for his opportunity.

Garza is averaging 10.7 points and 5.8 rebounds over 22 minutes per game in his last six games while Boston has posted a 5-1 record in that span. Garza is shooting 55.6 percent beyond the 3-point arc, and 72 percent inside of it, all while making good things happen with a heavy helping of hustle and grit.

Now it feels like Mazzulla is struggling to take Garza off the court. The Celtics’ best basketball in this stretch has often featured Garza alongside an energy-gushing bench unit.

A few numbers that jump off the page:

GARZILLA: A net rating monster

The Celtics are outscoring opponents by a team-best 29.2 points per 100 possessions during Garza’s 132 minutes of floor time in his last six games. What’s more, Boston is being outscored by 5.1 points per 100 possessions in his 156 minutes on the bench, giving him a ridiculous net rating differential of plus-34.3 in that span.

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Boston is putting up wild offensive numbers with Garza on the floor over the last six games with a 127.7 offensive rating. That number drops to 113.1 without him. Boston’s defensive rating is a stingy 98.5 with Garza on the floor and spikes to 118.2 without him.

It’s a rather surprising turnaround considering the Celtics had a minus-6.2 net rating over Garza’s first 15 appearances before he faded from the rotation.

Lean, mean screening machine

Since Garza reentered the rotation on Dec. 20, no one in the NBA has been credited with more screen assists than the 6-foot-10 big man. Garza’s 28 screen assists over the past six games have led to 67 points.

That number doesn’t even begin to explain his screening impact. Garza spends many offensive possessions looking like an offensive lineman trying to pancake opposing defenders. Teammates sprint off his screens, creating space that either leads to clean looks or forces opposing defenses to send help as a Boston player heads to the basket with a head of steam.

On Thursday night in Sacramento, Garza was credited with seven screen assists leading to 19 points. That was more screen assists and screen points than the Kings generated as a team (six assists leading to 13 points).

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We can’t help but wonder what Jayson Tatum is thinking watching Garza’s screening ways. Tatum has thrived in the past with screen-setting big men like Daniel Theis and Luke Kornet. That could be an intriguing combo whenever Tatum is back on the court.

He’s a hustler, baby

Screen assists aren’t the only hustle stat that Garza is piling up. On Thursday night against the Kings, he also totaled a team-high four deflections, his activity routinely disrupting passing lanes.

Garza’s signature move, though, has become his flailing arms when he hits the turbo button while zooming up and down the court. Whether hustling to get back on defense, or breaking out in transition on offense, Garza always seems to be at full throttle.

The NBA’s tracking data suggests Garza’s average speed is 4.7 miles per hour over the last six games. That’s far and away the top speed on the team (next closest: Sam Hauser, 4.53).

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There are still areas for Garza to improve. He has obvious defensive limitations and his defensive rebound rate is among the worst at his position. For the season, Garza has 61 offensive rebounds but only 40 on the defensive end. Over the past six games, he’s grabbed 23 offensive rebounds but only 12 on the defensive side.

But you can’t quibble with the effort. Garza sometimes sacrifices defensive boards while trying to simply put a body on an opposing big. He was credited with six of Boston’s nine box outs in Thursday’s win in Sacramento, including five of Boston’s six on the defensive end.

The Celtics have repeatedly pledged a desire to be the hardest playing team. Garza embodies that. He makes up for his limitations with a full-throttle nature. His finishing around the basket has improved since rejoining the rotation and a 74.2 percent effective field goal percentage in that span is among the best at his position.

As the Celtics try to get more consistency from other bench pieces, Garza is showing that good things can happen if you simply put an emphasis on playing hard.

There is still quite a ways to go in the 2025-26 NBA season, but the Oklahoma City Thunder are off a great start. 

Though they’ve fallen off their scorching pace to start the season, they still could threaten the Golden State Warriors’ single-season wins record of 73.

Only two teams in league history have won more than 70 games in a single season. The first was the Chicago Bulls during the 1995-96 campaign, when they won 72 games. The Warriors broke that record by one in 2016. The Bulls won the NBA championship in their record-breaking season, while the Warriors ultimately fell to the Cleveland Cavaliers during their Finals run.

[Get more Thunder news: Oklahoma City team feed]

The reigning NBA champion Thunder were on a good pace, but a recent loss against the Minnesota Timberwolves, and three losses to the San Antonio Spurs, have left them behind pace to hit the mark.

It’s still early. A lot can change between now and April. But the Thunder’s campaign is definitely something to keep an eye on. Here’s everything you need to know about the Thunder’s quest to set the NBA’s single-season wins record.

OKC’s current pace: 69.9 wins

OKC’s last game

Most wins in NBA history, single season

73: Golden State Warriors, 2015-16
72: Chicago Bulls, 1995-96
69: Chicago Bulls, 1996-97
69: Los Angeles Lakers, 1971-72
68: Oklahoma City Thunder, 2024-25
68: Boston Celtics, 1972-73
68: Philadelphia 76ers, 1966-67

Thunder vs. ‘95-96 Bulls vs. ‘15-16 Warriors

Record after 34 games
‘25-26 Thunder: 29-5 (.844)
‘95-96 Bulls: 31-3 (.906)
‘15-16 Warriors: 32-2 (.934)

Longest win streak
‘25-26 Thunder: 16
‘95-96 Bulls: 18
‘15-16 Warriors: 24

SGA vs. MJ vs. Steph 
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 32.12 PPG, 4.73 RPG, 6.39 APG (34games)
Michael Jordan: 30.4 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 4.3 APG (82 games)
Stephen Curry: 30.1 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 6.7 APG (79 games)

OKC’s upcoming schedule

Jan. 2: at Warriors
Jan. 4: at Suns
Jan 5: vs. Hornets
Full schedule

Tracking Thunder’s historic start

Largest average margin of victory in a season
‘25-26 Thunder: 14.6
‘24-25 Thunder: 12.87
‘71-72 Lakers: 12.28
‘70-71 Bucks: 12.26
‘95-96 Bulls: 12.24

Highest net rating in a season
‘25-26 Thunder: 14.4
‘95-96 Bulls: 13.4
‘24-25 Thunder: 12.8
‘96-97 Bulls: 12.0
‘25-26 Rockets: 11.9

We’re about halfway through the MLB offseason, and about half of the top available free agents are still looking for their next home.

The reliever market heated up first this winter, with Edwin Diaz, Devin Williams and other top arms landing big contracts with new teams. Dylan Cease signed a megadeal with the Blue Jays before Thanksgiving, but otherwise the starting pitcher market had been relatively quiet until Tatsuya Imai signed with the Astros before the end of his posting window. Among position players, Kyle Schwarber and Pete Alonso found the big paydays they were looking for, but many of the top hitters remain available, including our No. 1 free agent, Kyle Tucker. Also, four players accepted qualifying offers: Trent Grisham (Yankees), Shota Imanaga (Cubs), Gleyber Torres (Tigers) and Brandon Woodruff (Brewers).

As the calendar turns to 2026, there’s still a lot of offseason business yet to be done. Here’s a look at the 2025-26 free-agent class, headlined by Tucker and full of fascinating cases of star players at a variety of positions.

Note: An asterisk indicates a player received a qualifying offer. Ages listed are for the 2026 season (age on June 30, 2026). You can find a full list of free agents here.

The best player

1. *Kyle Tucker, OF, 29 years old

Tucker is the consensus No. 1 player in this free-agent class and should command a contract north of $350 million. That’s a product of his age — he doesn’t turn 29 until January — and long track record of offensive impact. Since 2020, Tucker’s first full MLB season, he is one of just six hitters to post an OPS above .800 every year. The others are all well-paid superstars: Freddie Freeman, Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge, José Ramírez and Juan Soto. Based solely on the bat, Tucker undoubtedly belongs in that group. Hitters like this don’t hit the open market often, and when they do, they make a killing.

That said, the low-talking Floridian is reaching free agency after an oddly paced walk year with the Cubs. Tucker was dealt from Houston, where he’d spent his entire career, to Chicago in a blockbuster deal last offseason. He got off to a scorching start with the Cubs, was named an All-Star starter and looked like a legit MVP candidate. As late as June 28, he sported a .933 OPS.

Then things got weird. Tucker’s power production cratered in July and August, as he managed just four homers across 211 plate appearances. It turned out he was playing through a hairline fracture in his hand for most of the summer. Just as he appeared to be shifting back into gear, he suffered a calf strain that kept him sidelined until the final week of the regular season.

It marked the second straight year Tucker was significantly limited by injuries, a development that raises a yellow flag or two for a player expected to command a gargantuan contract. Tucker also tends to employ a more laid-back pregame routine that prioritizes preserving energy. That less-is-more approach has helped him ascend to All-Star status, but it raises a few concerns around the league about how he might age and how he’ll adapt if his body starts to need more maintenance. Signs of that physical decline have popped up in Tucker’s sprint speed and defensive metrics, areas in which his skills have dwindled precipitously over the past few seasons.

Then again, that’s probably much too nitpicky. Some very rich team is going to give Tucker gobs of money to rake in the middle of its lineup. His sauceless personality, injury concerns and defensive limitations will combine to make his sweepstakes less of a frenzy than Soto’s were last winter. But don’t get it twisted: This dude is a big prize.

Great hitters with flaws

2. Alex Bregman, 3B, 32

A free agent last winter, Bregman ended up in Boston on a three-year, $120 million deal with opt-outs after each season. And now, after a productive season at Fenway, he’ll reenter the market. A quad issue robbed him of two months over the summer and intensified concerns about Bregman’s gradually deteriorating lower half, but the offensive profile remains incredibly strong. From a swing-decision standpoint, he’s about as good as anybody in the sport. And while the contact quality has dropped off since his MVP contender days, it’s more than good enough to make this version of Bregman an All-Star-level player.

So where does he end up? The Red Sox will certainly be gunning for a reunion; Bregman was heralded for his influence on Boston’s bevy of young players. Perhaps the Tigers, silver medalists for his services last winter, reengage after a disappointing October exit. One could see the Phillies moving on from Alec Bohm via trade and making a play for Bregman. Most contenders have somebody entrenched at the hot corner, but nobody saw the Red Sox moving Devers to DH and snagging Bregman. That’s a good reminder that everything is on the board for a player such as this.

3. *Kyle Schwarber, DH, 33

UPDATE: Schwarber and the Phillies agreed on a 5-year, $150 million deal.

What a season it was for one of the best true power bats of his generation: 56 home runs, 132 RBI and a .928 OPS. Sure, Schwarber is a flawed player — he’s limited to DH, strikes out a ton, doesn’t offer much on the bases and turns 33 in March — but it’s not worth overthinking this. The guy went deep 56 times. People don’t do that too often. For what it’s worth, Schwarber is also regarded as one of the few game-changing locker room presences in the sport. The Phils were front-runners to retain Schwarber’s services and ultimately got it done.

4. *Bo Bichette, SS, 28

A knee sprain kept Bichette on the shelf from early September to the World Series, for which he came back and batted .348. Late-season injury woes aside, 2025 was an extremely successful campaign for the sweet-swinging shortstop. Bichette rebounded from a disastrous 2024 to post numbers more in line with his career norms, swatting 18 homers to go with a .311 batting average that ranked second in baseball. 

Let’s get the elephant out of the way: Bichette is a bad shortstop. This year, he ranked as the game’s worst every-day glove at the infield’s most important spot. A prudent team would probably move him to second or third, but Bichette probably wants to stick at short. His defensive inadequacies don’t overwhelm the value of his bat — this dude rakes — but it adds a wart to the profile.

Still, Bichette’s track record of performance and his age will make him worth it for whichever team lands him. That he managed to return to Toronto’s lineup for the World Series despite not being 100 percent and contributed multiple meaningful hits, including his jaw-dropping blast off Shohei Ohtani in Game 7, lent further credence to his toughness and talent. Optimistically, he should have at least a half-decade of prime left; that’s worth paying for.

5. Pete Alonso, 1B, 31

UPDATE: Alonso and the Orioles agreed on a 5-year, $155 million deal.

Last winter, the Polar Bear and the only club he’d ever known engaged in a protracted stare-down that included a public besmirching from Mets owner Steve Cohen. In the end, Alonso’s market never materialized, and he returned to Queens on a lucrative, two-year deal with an opt-out that everyone expected him to exercise.

Unsurprisingly, that’s what happened after Alonso posted an OPS nearly 100 points higher than his 2024 total. The underlying numbers also rebounded, particularly his average exit velocities and his optimal launch angle percentages. Was that enough to reorient his value as a free agent and earn him the longer-term pact he was looking for a year ago? The Orioles answered with a resounding yes.

Alonso remains a horrid defender at first and a real liability on the bases. Still, he’s generally underrated, the type of needle-moving bat that would make every roster — including Baltimore’s — significantly better.

6. Munetaka Murakami, 1B/3B, 26

UPDATE: Murakami and the Chicago White Sox agreed on a 2-year, $34 million deal.

An unbridled force-of-nature at the plate since he became an every-day player in NPB at age 19, Murakami entered the posting system after seven seasons of legendary slugging in Japan. In 2022, Murakami made history by smashing 56 home runs in 141 games, an NPB record that stands as the most in a single season by a Japanese-born player. Having set an unthinkable standard of Barry Bonds-esque dominance in that 2022 season, with a mind-blowing 225 wRC+, Murakami’s merely outstanding encores in 2023 (31 HR, 150 wRC+) and 2024 (33 HR, 155 wRC+) were viewed as minor disappointments, despite still ranking as some of the best offensive seasons in the league.

The spotlight grew brighter in 2025, as a potential move to MLB came into focus, but an oblique injury cost Murakami multiple months, shrinking the opportunities to scout him. Yet even in an abbreviated sample, Murakami put on a show, nearly returning to his 2022 power peak with a ridiculous .663 SLG% and a whopping 22 home runs in 56 games.

So what’s the catch? Why isn’t this left-handed slugger with prodigious power ranked closer to Tucker on this list? It’s simple: Murakami strikes out a lot. His 29% K rate over the past three seasons is exceptionally high relative to his NPB peers, and while that number might not stand out in MLB right now, it’s difficult for teams to be optimistic that he’s going to make more contact against superior arms stateside. If anything, the concern is that the opposite could occur, with the whiffs piling up to the point that Murakami’s power production is undermined, and he becomes a flawed slugger with volatile ups and downs, a la Joey Gallo. 

It’s also entirely realistic to suggest that Murakami is young and talented enough to make the necessary adjustments to become a classic, power-and-patience superstar in the mold of Matt Olson or Max Muncy, with the high volume of walks and homers compensating for the sky-high strikeout totals. That Murakami is not considered especially likely to stick at third base adds even more pressure on his bat to live up to the hype in Chicago. His issues making contact likely spooked some teams in free agency, negating the upside of his youth and nearly unrivaled NPB résumé. As it turned out, there wasn’t a significant bidding war for his services, giving the White Sox an opportunity at a bargain in their rebuild.

7. Cody Bellinger, OF, 30

No matter how you slice it, glassy-eyed Cody was the second-best position player on the 2025 Yankees behind Aaron Judge. After the Cubs essentially contract-dumped him for nothing last winter, Bellinger responded with the best all-around season of his career since his 2019 MVP campaign. His offensive profile has changed quite a bit since then, but this version of Bellinger — allergic to strikeouts, hitting the ball in the air to the pull side just enough — is a really valuable player.

Add his superb defense in an outfield corner and his relative youth, and you’ve got a legitimate second or third option on a World Series team. Bellinger enjoyed his year in pinstripes, and the Yankees loved what he brought to the table. A reunion there makes a lot of sense, but it would put more pressure on Bellinger’s ability to play center field, where he’s more average than great at this point.

The Big Three arms

8. *Framber Valdez, SP, 32

You could make a strong argument that Valdez belongs in a category all his own, above this other group of arms. The dreadlocked lefty finished top-10 in Cy Young voting in 2022, ‘23 and ‘24. He’s also incredibly durable, as one of just two pitchers to toss at least 175 innings in each of the past four seasons (Logan Webb is the other). Then there’s the October experience: Valdez has 16 career postseason outings. The point is Valdez has been one of the more valuable starting pitchers of this decade. And while his numbers took a half-step back in 2025, he still boasted an elite groundball rate and kept hitters from squaring up the ball.

Valdez’s bizarre interaction with catcher Cesar Salazar in early September, in which Valdez appeared to purposefully cross-up Salazar with a fastball, amplified some previously held concerns about Valdez’s conduct as a teammate. That incident won’t tank his free agency, far from it, but it’s a data point worth noting.

9. *Ranger Suárez, SP, 30

Ranger’s sinker — his most used offering — averages a frosty 90.1 mph, firmly in the bottom 10% league-wide in velocity. Yet Suárez gets outs. A lot of ‘em. After missing the start of the year due to a back issue, the Venezuelan southpaw posted the best numbers of his career, finishing with a 3.20 ERA and just below a strikeout per inning. His postseason track record is notably robust, with a 1.48 ERA across 42 2/3 career innings. Do you feel excited about him starting Game 1 of a playoff series? Probably not. But Game 2 or 3? Definitely. There are some concerns about how he’ll age, particularly if the fastball velocity dips under 90 mph, as there simply aren’t many guys throwing this soft who get outs. But Suárez has been doing this schtick for a few years now, and at some point, the results have to mean something.

10. *Dylan Cease, SP, 30

UPDATE: Cease and the Blue Jays agreed on a 7-year, $210 million deal.

Unlike the southpaw groundball specialists such as Valdez or Suárez fronting their rotations, Cease represents an appealing alternative at the top of the starting pitching market. And a Toronto team fresh off a World Series appearance liked what it saw. While his run-prevention skills have fluctuated more in recent seasons than the two lefties in this tier, Cease has been one of the game’s premier strikeout artists for his entire career, thanks to a tremendous fastball-slider combo. His bouts of ineffectiveness are the product of too many walks and far more hard contact surrendered than you’d expect for someone with Cease’s swing-and-miss stuff, but Cease has been worth at least 3.0 fWAR for five consecutive seasons. 

That consistency is rooted in nearly unrivaled durability: Cease leads all MLB pitchers in starts over the past five years and has never been on the injured list due to an arm injury. Pitcher health is fickle, of course, so there’s no guarantee Cease will remain uninjured for the duration of his Blue Jays contract; it’s also possible some teams viewed the mileage on his arm as problematic. But Toronto saw that longstanding reliability as worthy of committing heavily to him in free agency, and Cease’s demonstrated peaks — including top-four Cy Young finishes in 2022 and ‘24 — likely helped his cause.

Henry Russell/Yahoo Sports

The closer

11. *Edwin Díaz, RP, 32

UPDATE: Díaz and the Dodgers agreed on a 3-year, $69 million deal.

The Mets’ embarrassing collapse does not fall on Díaz’s shoulders, as the lanky Puerto Rican was brilliant once again this year. Now that Emmanuel Clase has effectively been banished for his gambling-related malfeasance, there’s a strong argument that Díaz is the undisputed best reliever in the game. After a catastrophic leg injury during the World Baseball Classic robbed him of his entire 2023 season, Díaz is, amazingly, all the way back to his rip-roaring best.

That’s why, despite having two years and $37 million left on his deal, Díaz opted out to become a free agent. A reunion with the Mets remained likely, but there was no reason for Eddie-D not to try to squeeze out every last dollar that he has earned over the past few years, and the Dodgers were willing to pay Díaz like the elite closer he is.

Tier 2 starter

12. *Zac Gallen, SP, 30

It has been a troubling and confounding decline for Gallen since his third-place NL Cy Young finish in 2023. His first-half struggles in the final year of his Snakes contract were bad enough that no team was willing to meet the price to trade for him in July, despite the right-hander’s widely reported availability, and considering his 5.60 ERA at the deadline, it was tough to blame them. 

Funnily enough, once the trade rumors were behind him and Gallen knew he was going to remain a D-back for the rest of the season, he started to pitch much better, posting a 3.32 ERA in 65 innings over his final 11 outings and restoring some optimism that he could warrant a sizable payday in free agency. It’s not like Gallen’s stuff and velocity are markedly different than during his peak, but regression with his command has caused all five of his pitches to perform worse, a trend that will need to be corrected if he is to reestablish himself as a quality starter whom teams are excited to have on the mound in important games.

NPB stars, part 2

13. Kazuma Okamoto, 3B, 30

A franchise staple for one of the most prominent organizations in NPB, the Tokyo-based Yomiuri Giants, Okamoto’s prospects of coming to MLB had long been clouded by Yomiuri’s longstanding reluctance to post its players. But Yomiuri will honor Okamoto’s desire to make the jump to the big leagues now, enabling the team to receive some financial compensation for his departure, rather than likely watching him leave for nothing after the 2026 season, when he’d reach the requisite nine years of NPB service to become an unrestricted international free agent. 

Okamoto has been one of the best hitters in Japan for a while — he homered against Team USA in the 2023 World Baseball Classic championship — but he leveled up in a meaningful way in 2025. Although he missed two-plus months in the middle of the season due to a left elbow injury, Okamoto was tremendously productive at the plate when healthy.

He hit .327/.416/.598 with 15 HR in 293 plate appearances across 69 games, good for an astonishing 214 wRC+ that ranked first among NPB hitters with at least 200 plate appearances — yes, even ahead of Murakami (208 wRC+). Okamoto’s 11.3% strikeout rate and 90% in-zone contact rate were both career-best marks, and he is exceptionally adept at pulling the ball in the air, enabling his power to manifest regularly in games. 

He’s also a better bet to stick at third base long-term than Murakami, and he has experience at first base and in left field, offering several paths for him to fit on a big-league roster. While he’s four years older, right-handed and doesn’t possess quite the eye-popping raw power of Murakami, it’s entirely reasonable to suggest that Okamoto is more likely to succeed in MLB right away and possibly in the long term as well.

14. Tatsuya Imai, SP, 28

UPDATE: Imai and the Astros reportedly agreed on a 3-year, $54 million deal.

Joining Murakami and Okamoto in this winter’s class of Japanese stars making the jump to MLB is Imai, who was posted by the Seibu Lions following a monster season in which he led all NPB starters in WHIP (0.89) and strikeout rate (27.8%) while posting a 1.92 ERA in 163 ⅔ innings. Relative to nearly every other NPB pitcher who has come to MLB in recent years, Imai’s pitch mix is notably more shallow — for now, anyway. His 95-mph four-seam fastball (48%) and 86-mph slider (33%) accounted for more than three-quarters of his pitches thrown in 2025, with the changeup (9%), splitter (5%) and sinker (4%) usage lagging behind. 

That’s not to say there aren’t successful MLB starters deploying a heavy dose of heaters and sliders — Cease, Hunter Greene, and Spencer Strider say hello — but it remains to be seen if Imai’s stuff is good enough at present for him to follow suit or if his arsenal will need adjusting once he arrives stateside. Age is on Imai’s side — he doesn’t turn 28 until May — but there are enough questions that the financial outlay is closer to what Kodai Senga got than Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Also of note: While Murakami is represented by Casey Close of Excel Sports Management (the same agency that represents Kyle Tucker and Kyle Schwarber), Imai and Okamoto are Scott Boras clients.

Rock-solid position players

15. Josh Naylor, 1B, 29

UPDATE: Naylor and the Mariners agreed on a 5-year, $92.5 million deal.

Traded by Cleveland last winter after his first All-Star appearance, Naylor raked for the D-backs before being dealt to Seattle at the deadline and becoming a key contributor during the Mariners’ postseason run. Don’t be fooled by his burly build and high-effort hacks into thinking that Naylor is a one-dimensional slugger; there’s a lot more finesse to his game than meets the eye.

That was most evident in his shocking success stealing bases in 2025, despite his third percentile sprint speed, but it’s also relevant in the batter’s box, where Naylor’s excellent contact ability keeps his strikeout totals low while enabling his power to play to all fields and against various pitch types. He has also turned himself into a rock-solid defender at first base. It appears Naylor’s relative youth and positive recent trajectory helped land him a deal longer than the three-year, $60 million contract Christian Walker secured last offseason as one of free agency’s top available first basemen. By getting Naylor into that fifth year, the Mariners got a manageable $18.5 million AAV.

16. *Trent Grisham, OF, 29

UPDATE: Grisham accepted the one-year qualifying offer from the Yankees at $22.025 million.

Arguably no player climbed these rankings more dramatically over the course of the season than Grisham, who exploded into relevance as a key member of the Yankees’ position-player group after being a virtual afterthought in his first season in the Bronx. To wit: Despite being on the roster for the entire season and every round of the postseason during New York’s run to the World Series in 2024, Grisham appeared in just 76 regular-season games and zero in October. 

This year, Grisham’s 581 plate appearances marked a career high and ranked fourth on the team. Center fielders with Grisham’s power (34 HR) and patience (14.1% walk rate) are rare, and that he’s still just 29. It’s possible some teams viewed him in a fairly skeptical light, considering his timely career year follows a much longer major-league track record of mediocrity, but there are real skills to be excited about here for the Yankees.

17. *Gleyber Torres, 2B, 29

UPDATE: Torres accepted the one-year qualifying offer from the Tigers at $22.025 million.

Torres hit free agency last winter as one of the youngest position players available but ultimately settled for a one-year deal with Detroit, with hopes of bolstering his value with a stronger 2025 showing than in his last hurrah as a Yankee. He generally succeeded, exhibiting elite plate discipline while improving both his hard-hit and barrel rates. He was especially terrific early on for the Tigers (.284/.386/.437 in 72 games through the end of June) but notably faded as the season went on, a decline perhaps explained by a hernia Torres revealed he was playing through after Detroit’s season ended in October.

He underwent surgery to address the issue, and that rehab is not projected to impact his availability to start 2026. Although his defense continues to rate as comfortably below-average, Torres gives an offensive boost at the keystone for Detroit.

18. Jorge Polanco, 2B, 32

UPDATE: Polanco and the Mets agreed on a 2-year, $40 million deal.

Polanco entered free agency a year ago on a decidedly dour note, having just endured the worst campaign of his career in his first year as a Mariner before undergoing knee surgery at the outset of the offseason. Even still, Polanco’s longstanding track record of production before his injury-marred 2024 earned him a spot toward the end of our free-agent rankings, with the idea that a bounce-back could be in store if he could get healthy. 

After staying in Seattle on a one-year deal, Polanco did exactly that, turning in an excellent regular season at the plate (26 HR, 132 wRC+) and delivering several of Seattle’s biggest swings during its run to Game 7 of the ALCS. That strong showing was enough to garner a multiyear deal from the Mets for Polanco in his second trip to the open market. Still, he is a poor defender with a troubling injury history, an indicator of why the deal was relatively short.

Starting pitchers with questions

19. *Michael King, SP, 31

UPDATE: King and the San Diego Padres agreed on a 3-year, $75 million deal.

A breakout 2024 had King primed for a massive platform year in 2025, and his first 10 starts of the season (2.59 ERA in 55 ⅔ innings) suggested he was firmly on track to pitch his way into the top tier of free-agent starters. Then a shoulder injury put him on the shelf for all of June and July, and a left knee injury derailed him shortly after he returned to the mound in August. King was healthy enough to make four September starts and a one-inning relief appearance in the wild-card series, but with just one fully healthy season as a major-league starting pitcher on his résumé (2024), his durability remains a considerable red flag for the Padres, who nonetheless decided to keep him around.

20. *Shota Imanaga, SP, 32

UPDATE: Imanaga accepted the one-year qualifying offer from the Cubs at $22.025 million.

The complex, four-year contract Imanaga signed with the Cubs two years ago featured a crucial decision point following the 2025 season, when Chicago could opt to guarantee Imanaga three more seasons at $57 million or decline to do so, instead affording Imanaga the opportunity to exercise a $15 million player option for 2026. On Nov. 4, Chicago declined to extend Imanaga for three more years, and Imanaga then declined his own one-year option, briefly adding him to the intriguing pool of free-agent starting pitchers before he accepted his QO.

Brilliant as a 30-year-old rookie in 2024, Imanaga regressed in his second major-league season in terms of both durability and effectiveness, missing several starts due to a hamstring strain midsummer and seeing his ERA rise from 2.91 to 3.73. While Imanaga remains an elite strike-thrower who doesn’t allow a boatload of baserunners — his WHIP actually improved in his second season — he’s troublingly susceptible to opponents’ slugging, with a 1.93 HR/9 that ranked second-highest among pitchers with at least 100 innings thrown in 2025. That bugaboo proved costly in the postseason, when he surrendered two key long balls against Milwaukee in NLDS Game 2.

It’s an imperfect profile, but there is still a lot to like about what Imanaga brings on and off the field for the Cubs.

21. Lucas Giolito, SP, 31

Giolito was one of baseball’s most durable starting pitchers until elbow surgery wiped out the entirety of his first year with the Red Sox in 2024. He bounced back with a 3.41 ERA in 145 innings in 2025 but finished the year on a sour note when he reported elbow discomfort that made him unavailable for Boston’s wild-card series against the Yankees. The Red Sox didn’t rule Giolito out for future postseason rounds, but their early elimination left his status uncertain at the outset of the offseason. 

By reaching 140 innings in the regular season, Giolito converted his $19 million team option for 2026 into a player option, which he declined. If he is fully healthy, Giolito remains an alluring option for teams searching for stability in the rotation, though without sizable upside.

22. *Brandon Woodruff, SP, 33

UPDATE: Woodruff accepted the one-year qualifying offer from the Brewers at $22.025 million.

Before shoulder surgery put him on the shelf for a year and a half, Woodruff was one of the best starers in MLB: His 2.93 ERA in 595 innings from 2019 to 2023 was fourth-lowest among qualified starters. But returns from major shoulder injuries tend to be more tenuous than returns from elbow surgery, and the results of Woodruff’s reacclimation to the Brewers’ rotation were extraordinary and unusual. Despite his fastball velocity averaging closer to 93 mph than the 96 he sat at pre-surgery, Woodruff was as dominant as ever, registering a career-high strikeout rate (32.3%) and career-low walk rate (5.4%) while posting a 3.20 ERA in 64 ⅔ innings. He ditched his slider in favor of a cutter, both his two-seam and four-seam fastballs continued to perform well even with diminished velocity, and his changeup remained an excellent swing-and-miss offering. 

The catcher

23. J.T. Realmuto, C, 34

Thirty-one catchers compiled at least 1.0 FanGraphs WAR in 2025. Only two of them, Realmuto and Danny Jansen, are set to hit free agency. So despite Realmuto’s advanced age, he’s still far and away the best backstop available this winter. The muscled Oklahoman isn’t what he once was — the best catcher in the world — but he’s still a valuable player. He was essentially a league-average hitter this year and remained impressively durable, leading the league in games started behind the dish. A reunion with the Phillies feels like the most likely outcome here; he’s simply too valuable a cog in their pitching operation to let him walk. Realmuto will want a three-year deal, but he’ll probably end up with two.

Hitters with difficult markets to project

24. Eugenio Suárez, 3B, 34

Suárez hit 49 home runs in 2025 for the second time in his career and returned to the Mariners via midseason trade after a year-and-a-half as a D-back, enabling him to take part in Seattle’s memorable October run, which included one of the biggest swings in franchise history: his go-ahead grand slam in ALCS Game 5. For as feel-good of a story as the Suárez-to-Seattle reunion was, it’s difficult to ignore his sharp decline in production post-trade, and that sours some of the optimism for his market as he enters free agency for the first time. 

Suárez’s issues making consistent contact likely aren’t going to magically improve as he enters his mid-30s, which puts immense pressure on his prodigious slugging to continue if he is to remain a viable every-day player, especially if his defense at third base continues to trend in the wrong direction. That said, Suárez’s overwhelmingly positive clubhouse reputation should earn him some additional interest from clubs looking for a quality veteran presence in addition to the high-end slugging he offers.

25. Ha-Seong Kim, SS, 30

UPDATE: Kim and the Braves agreed on a 1-year, $20 million deal.

Kim played only 48 games this year — 24 each for Tampa Bay and Atlanta — after signing a two-year free-agent deal with the Rays last winter. Tampa left him on waivers, and the Braves pounced, despite being light-years out of contention, hoping Kim wouldn’t activate his opt-out and they could scoop up an every-day shortstop for 2026 on the cheap. The South Korean infielder declined his $16 million option to reenter the market. He ended up back with the Braves, but for a bit more money. Kim is the only true shortstop in this class, even though he projects to be a well-below-average hitter.

26. Luis Arraez, INF, 29

Arraez promises to inspire a wide array of opinions as one of baseball’s most unique players. Traditionalists might look at his multiple batting titles and microscopic strikeout rates as outstanding and appealing outliers in an era defined by swing-and-miss, but the modern game prioritizes players who are far more multidimensional than what Arraez currently offers. It’s not just that Arraez rarely produces extra-base hits; it’s that he barely reaches. His walk rates have plummeted recently, and his defense doesn’t seem to be getting any better.

While there still will (and should) be an appetite for a player with one truly elite skill, it’d be misleading to suggest that Arraez’s hitting alone is worth a massive long-term contract. He’s an exceptionally fun and singular player but also a limited one. How his free agency unfolds will be one of the more intriguing storylines of the winter.

Tier 2 relievers

27. Devin Williams, RP, 31

UPDATE: Williams and the Mets agreed on a 3-year, $51 million deal.

It was a tumultuous year for Williams, who was dealt to the Bronx last winter after spending the entirety of his career in Milwaukee. Handed the closer role out of spring training, Williams and his airbender changeup had a cataclysmic April, in which he was booed multiple times by the Yankees faithful and booted from the ninth inning by skipper Aaron Boone.

Things gradually got better over the summer, as Williams regained his manager’s trust and slotted back into a high-leverage role by the playoffs. In fact, he didn’t allow a run in 22 of his final 23 outings, postseason included. With Edwin Diaz leaving Queens, the Mets are likely paying Williams to close, and the airbender is still a special pitch, but Williams’ stock has fallen significantly since this time last year.

28. Robert Suarez, RP, 35

UPDATE: Suarez and the Braves agreed on a 3-year, $45 million deal.

The flame-throwing Venezuelan had two years and $16 million left on his deal with the Padres, a nice haul for a reliever his age, but opted out. He got a higher AAV from the Braves after posting another dominant season for the Padres. That 2.97 ERA looks great, not spectacular, but if you overlook two disaster outings in which Suarez recorded one out and surrendered five runs, that figure drops to 1.70.

There are certainly concerns about whether Suarez’s elite fastball velocity (98.5 mph) will sustain as he creeps closer to 40, especially because of how much he leans on that pitch (60% usage), but this is one of the truly elite relievers in the game.

Deadline bats who played well

29. Ryan O’Hearn, 1B/OF, 32

UPDATE: O’Hearn and the Pirates reportedly agreed on a 2-year, $29 million deal.

The first-time All-Star tailed off slightly after a deadline deal sent him from Baltimore to San Diego, but the overall numbers were unavoidably impressive for a guy who was left to rot on the waiver-wire scrap heap just a few years ago. O’Hearn’s peripheral numbers were strong for a third straight season and secured him a two-year deal with a Pirates team trying to upgrade this winter. After missing out on the upper crust of Alonso, Schwarber and Naylor, O’Hearn is a perfectly competent consolation prize for Pittsburgh. He also earns rave reviews for his clubhouse presence.

30. Harrison Bader, OF, 32

When Bader went from Minnesota to Philadelphia at the deadline, it wasn’t even the biggest Twins-Phillies deal of the week. But the luscious-locked center fielder energized the Phillies’ lineup, offering a much-needed contact-oriented profile. His groin injury in Game 1 of the NLDS turned out to have an enormous impact on that series, as the Phillies sorely missed his presence in the lineup. Given the likelihood that the team moves on from right fielder Nick Castellanos, Bader could make some sense as a versatile fourth outfielder. But a two-year deal might be in order for the 32-year-old, who just posted the best offensive season of his career. Bader will find a sturdy market for his services.

31. Mike Yastrzemski, OF, 35

UPDATE: Yastrzemski and the Braves agreed on 2-year, $23 million deal.

Having not debuted in the big leagues until age 28 with the Giants, Yastrzemski finally entered free agency at age 35 coming off a sneaky stellar post-trade run with Kansas City, during which he slugged .500 with more walks (25) than strikeouts (22) across 50 games. His raw power is modest, but Yastrzemski has a knack for pulling the ball in the air and just had a career year from a plate-discipline standpoint, making more contact than ever and drawing walks at a 12.9% clip. He remains subpar against left-handers, but Yastrzemski should be quite productive if deployed properly by the Braves.

Tier 3 relievers

32. Luke Weaver, RP, 32

UPDATE: Weaver and the Mets agreed on a 2-year, $22 million deal.

Weaver was handed the ninth inning after his teammate Williams hit the schneid in April. He was magnificent through the season’s first two months, with just two earned runs to his name on May 26. Then he hit the shelf due to a hamstring injury that derailed his year. Weaver returned in late June but wasn’t the same, posting a 5.31 ERA the rest of the way before rough outings in AL wild-card Game 1 and ALDS Game 1 pushed him out of Boone’s bullpen trust circle. Just a year ago, this guy was the most trusted arm on a World Series team, so the Mets will be hoping that he bounces back and that his late-season struggles were injury-based, rather than a more concerning harbinger.

33. Ryan Helsley, RP, 31

UPDATE: Helsley and the Orioles agreed on a 2-year, $28 million deal.

The hard-throwing closer had an ERA of 3.00 when he was traded from St. Louis to Queens on deadline day. Helsley had a multiyear track record of high-leverage success, built on one of the hardest heaters in the sport. But his Mets tenure will go down as one of the all-time reliever disasters, as Helsley posted an abhorrent 7.20 ERA in 22 outings in blue and orange. His late-summer implosion was crucial in the Mets’ shocking tumble down the standings.

Helsley compiled the second-most fWAR among relievers between 2022 and ‘24 — 5.7, with a 1.83 ERA in 167 2/3 innings — but his 2025 was so weird, bad and ugly that it might’ve scared some teams off. In the end, though, he got a two-year contract as projected, with a reported opt-out after the first year.

Deadline bats who played poorly

34. Cedric Mullins, OF, 31

UPDATE: Mullins and the Rays agreed on a 1-year, $7 million deal.

Mullins spent a decade in the Orioles organization before being dealt to the Mets at the deadline. His production had been closer to league average in the years since his star-level 2021 campaign, in which he hit 30 homers, stole 30 bases and finished ninth in AL MVP voting. His particularly poor showing with New York (.565 OPS including a brutal 6-for-55 skid to finish the season) pushed Mullins much further down these rankings than we expected him to be a few months ago.

35. Willi Castro, UTL, 29

An All-Star in 2024 known for his unrivaled defensive versatility, Castro was having another stellar season before he was shipped to Chicago as part of Minnesota’s epic fire sale at the trade deadline. And while he continued to provide value as a competent defender at multiple positions, Castro’s bat completely disappeared as a Cub, posting a paltry .485 OPS and not registering a single plate appearance across Chicago’s eight postseason games. His relative youth and flexibility with the glove should still make him a fairly alluring free agent.

A bunch more starting pitchers

36. Merrill Kelly, SP, 37

UPDATE: Kelly and the Diamondbacks agreed on a 2-year, $40 million deal.

That the Rangers were willing to send three solid prospects to Arizona for two months of Kelly suggests that he is still well-regarded within the industry, but free agency is a different equation, especially for a pitcher this old. Without plus velocity, Kelly gets by on great command of a six-pitch repertoire, headlined by an excellent changeup. Like most of the pitchers in this tier, he’s more likely to provide value in the regular season than as a no-doubt postseason starter, but that’s not something to sneeze at. Clearly, the Diamondbacks had enough faith in Kelly, based on his previous stint with the team, to bring him back on a two-year pact.

37. Tyler Mahle, SP, 31

UPDATE: Mahle and the Giants reportedly agreed on a 1-year, $10 million deal.

Mahle was absolutely brilliant through the end of May (1.64 ERA in 66 innings across 12 starts) before fading in June and landing on the injured list due to shoulder fatigue, which kept him out until mid-September. It was encouraging to see him finish the season healthy, but Mahle hasn’t thrown more than 100 innings since 2022.

38. Zach Eflin, SP, 32

UPDATE: Eflin and the Orioles agreed on a 1-year, $10 million deal.

Recurring back injuries limited Eflin to 14 ineffective starts (5.93 ERA) for Baltimore in 2025, but he was a mid-rotation workhorse the previous two seasons (3.54 ERA in 343 innings) and could prove to be a nice buy-low option for an Orioles team that needed rotation reinforcements. We’re only two years removed from Eflin finishing sixth in AL Cy Young voting — let’s not forget about this guy.

39. Zack Littell, SP, 30

The good: Littell’s 3.73 ERA ranks 17th out of 37 qualified starters over the past two seasons, his 1.65 BB/9 is bested only by Tarik Skubal over that same timeframe, and among free-agent pitchers, only Framber Valdez and Zac Gallen threw more innings in 2025 than Littell’s 186 2/3 frames. 

The bad: Whiffs are hard to come by for Littell (17.1% strikeout rate ranked 47th out of 52 qualified starters in 2025), and he’s particularly susceptible to the long ball, making his next home ballpark a crucial variable when projecting his effectiveness moving forward.

40. Griffin Canning, SP, 30

After allowing the most earned runs in the American League with the Angels in 2024, Canning was enjoying a nice bounce-back season in his first year with the Mets, leaning heavily on his slider and changeup to keep hitters off-balance. But his season ended abruptly when he ruptured his left Achilles on a non-contact play in June, starting a rehab process that could stretch into 2026. A team that believes in Canning’s revamped form with New York and his ability to rebound from serious injury could target the right-hander as a low-cost rotation option.

Hitters who confuse us

41. Max Kepler, OF, 33

Kepler struggled badly out the gate in his first year as a Phillie but settled into being a useful contributor and finished the regular season strong, hitting .262/.322/.505 with seven home runs over his final 30 games. Kepler still exhibits decent power and plate discipline, but his earning potential will depend on whether teams view him as a viable every-day player or more in a predominantly platoon role, like Philadelphia did.

42. Miguel Andujar, OF/DH, 31

Albeit in a smaller sample, Andujar quietly posted one of the better offensive seasons of any free-agent bat available. Among hitters with at least 300 plate appearances in 2025, Andujar’s .318 average ranked second in MLB behind only Aaron Judge, and he was one of the most productive trade-deadline acquisitions in the league after being dealt by the A’s to the Reds. He remains a poor defender who doesn’t draw walks, but he crushes lefties and makes a ton of contact. He’s a sneaky target for teams on a tight budget looking for offense.

43. Rob Refsnyder, OF, 35

UPDATE: Refsnyder and the Mariners agreed on a 1-year, $6.25 million deal.

This isn’t just any platoon bat. The degree to which Refsnyder demolishes left-handed pitching puts him in some truly outrageous company. Among hitters with at least 250 plate appearances against southpaws over the past two seasons, Refsnyder’s .949 OPS ranks fifth behind Aaron Judge, Ketel Marte, José Ramírez and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. That’s ridiculous. He’s essentially unplayable against right-handers and a below-average corner-outfield defender, but his special skill still makes Refsnyder an appealing pickup for the Mariners.

Tier 4 relievers

44. Brad Keller, RP, 30

UPDATE: Keller and the Phillies agreed on a 2-year, $22 million deal.

An unremarkable starting pitcher for the first six years of his career, Keller broke out in a big way in the Cubs’ bullpen in 2025, throwing harder than ever and posting a sterling 2.07 ERA in 69 2/3 innings with underlying data that strongly supports his performance as legitimate. Keller cost considerably less than the top relievers who already have a boatload of saves on their résumés, but he could offer similar or even greater upside for the Phillies if he can sustain the gains he made in Chicago.

45. Raisel Iglesias, RP, 36

UPDATE: Iglesias and the Braves agreed on a 1-year, $16 million deal.

Iglesias had a catastrophic start to his season, allowing seven home runs across his first 25 appearances after allowing four total in 66 games pitched in 2024. That left him with an unsightly 6.75 ERA in early June, but after that, Iglesias got back on track and was generally the elite game-ender we’ve long known him to be, posting a 1.25 ERA over his final 43 1/3 innings, a dominant stretch that went somewhat unnoticed amid a lost Braves season.

Iglesias and Keller are our picks to squeeze into the end of our Top 50 among a deep free-agent class of accomplished righty relievers that also includes Kenley Jansen, Kyle Finnegan, Emilio Pagán, Phil Maton and Tyler Rogers.

Veteran starters

46. Chris Bassitt, SP, 37

After another year of sturdy work in the rotation — Bassitt is one just seven pitchers to make at least 30 starts in each of the past four seasons — the 36-year-old right-hander made a successful transition to the bullpen for Toronto’s World Series run. He allowed just one run across his eight relief outings in October, demonstrating versatility that could prove valuable as teams project his role as he enters the latter stages of his career. 

It’s also worth a mention that the Blue Jays’ clubhouse absolutely adores this guy, and Bassitt has not been shy in expressing his desire to stay put. Sentimentality and postseason bullpen cameos aside, Bassitt’s durability would seem to be his most appealing trait as a free agent for teams looking to solidify their rotations. Whether that leads him back to Toronto remains to be seen..

47. Jose Quintana, SP, 37

Quintana has delivered a better-than-league-average park-adjusted ERA in 12 of his 14 major-league seasons, including 2025, when he helped stabilize an injury-ravaged Brewers rotation. The stuff unsurprisingly isn’t getting any better — he just posted a career-low 16% strikeout rate — but he still seems to have the guile to get outs in a bulk role and thus deserves a nod toward the end of this list.

48. Justin Verlander, SP, 43

It took until mid-July for Verlander to record his first win as a Giant, but he managed to find his groove down the stretch, posting a 2.60 ERA in 72 ⅔ innings over his final 13 starts. Even at age 42 (his birthday is in February), Verlander is still innovating, adding an 80-mph sweeper to complement his traditional slider and curveball, a pitch that performed as his most effective by run value. While his goal of reaching 300 wins feels farfetched at this point (he’s at 266), he pitched well enough in 2025 to earn the chance to continue that chase.

A probably washed guy who used to rake

49. Marcell Ozuna, DH, 35

For the first two months of the season (.883 OPS), Ozuna resembled the impactful slugger he was the previous two years in Atlanta. But in early June, the burly Dominican revealed that he’d been battling a tear in his right hip. He never ended up on the injured list, but his performance plummeted as the season went on, with a .673 OPS after June 1.

While Ozuna’s overall offensive résumé should garner some interest, there are ample reasons for teams to find production elsewhere: He’s a full-time DH in his mid-30s with lingering injuries issues, and he has a history of multipleoff-field incidents.

Overseas stars seeking MLB comeback

50. LHP Anthony Kay, SP, 31

UPDATE: Kay and the Chicago White Sox agreed on a 2-year, $12 million deal.

A first-round draft pick by the Mets in 2016, Kay was dealt to Toronto in the Marcus Stroman trade in 2019 and appeared with the Blue Jays in parts of four seasons. After brief cameos with the Cubs and then back with the Mets in 2023, Kay took his talents overseas, where he became an impact starter for the Yokohama Bay Stars in NPB.

Kay was solid in his first year in Japan but really leveled up in 2025, adding an equally effective two-seamer to complement his 94-mph four-seam fastball and three solid secondary offerings (slider, cutter, changeup). Among qualified NPB starters, Kay ranked fifth in ERA (1.74), fifth in WHIP (0.98), and first in ground-ball rate (55.8%), a stellar résumé of dominance in the second-best league in the world that could earn him a much more significant opportunity stateside than he got earlier in his major-league career.

Kay is one of several pitchers with MLB experience who have blossomed overseas recently ahead of making a return to the majors. Right-hander Cody Ponce (1.89 ERA in 180 ⅔ innings with 252 strikeouts for the Hanwha Eagles in the Korean Baseball Organization) landed a three-year, $30 million deal with Toronto. And left-hander Foster Griffin (2.57 ERA in 315 ⅔ innings for the Yomiuri Giants the past three seasons) signed a one-year, $5.5 million deal with the Nationals.

The Denver Nuggets are, to use a clinical phrase, going through it right now.

In November, the team lost starting guard Christian Braun to an ankle strain, then starting forward Aaron Gordon to a hamstring strain. Last week, starting forward Cam Johnson joined them on the shelf due to a bone bruise in his knee.

Then MVP front-runner Nikola Jokić sustained a hyperextended knee that will keep him out for at least four weeks. Oh, and the team’s only remaining starter, Jamal Murray, is currently dealing with a sprained right ankle, but he remains probable for Friday’s game against the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Somehow, the situation just got even worse.

Jokić’s backup, Jonas Valančiūnas, has been ruled out for at least four weeks due to a right calf strain, according to ESPN’s Shams Charania.

That’s the backup the Nuggets least want to lose. Valančiūnas is the fifth-highest paid player on the team after joining Denver in the offseason via a trade with the Sacramento Kings.

[Get more Nuggets news: Denver team feed]

Any game plan with Jokić out was likely to involve abundant minutes for the Lithuanian, as rookie DaRon Holmes and Zeke Nnaji are the only players left on the roster who resemble a center.

In the Nuggets’ first full game without Jokić, Valančiūnas posted a season-high 17 points on 5-of-6 shooting, plus 9 rebounds, 4 assists and 3 blocks, in a 106-103 win over the Toronto Raptors. It was in that game that he sustained the calf strain after 23 minutes of play.

The good news for Denver is that while both of its rotation centers are out, head coach David Adelman said last weekend that Gordon and Braun could both return during the team’s current seven-game road trip, which runs through next Wednesday. The coming weeks are still likely to be a challenge for a team currently third in the West with a 23-10 record.