For the second time this MLB offseason, an unexpected team emerged late in the posting process as the landing spot for a Japanese star making the jump from NPB. On Thursday, one day before his posting window was set to expire, the Houston Astros reportedly agreed to sign 27-year-old right-hander Tatsuya Imai to a deal that guarantees him $54 million over three years but is structured in a way that affords him substantial flexibility and upside for greater earnings in the short term, with a maximum value of $63 million and opt-outs after each season.
Before Christmas, it was the rebuilding Chicago White Sox who shocked the industry by signing accomplished slugger Munetaka Murakami, one of the greatest power hitters in Japanese history. Chicago felt like an unlikely destination, considering where it is in its competitive window and that the market for Murakami was expected to outpace what the White Sox would be comfortable pursuing. Ultimately, Murakami’s two-year, $34 million deal was reflective of an industry that was hesitant to invest in him because of his swing-and-miss tendencies and defensive limitations.
In hindsight, the match makes a good amount of sense considering the circumstances, as the short-term pact affords Murakami the opportunity to prove himself on a club with far lower stakes than he might have faced hitting in the middle of the lineup for a contender. And if he excels, Murakami can become a free agent again at age 28 and seek a more lucrative, long-term contract after proving himself in MLB.
As it turns out, a similar sequence has unfolded in the wake of Imai choosing Houston: initial surprise followed by gradual recognition that the Astros could be a perfect fit for the pitcher, especially under the terms of the reported contract.
At first, Imai picking the Astros raised eyebrows. Houston rarely came up in reports as a possible landing spot for him, largely based on the assumption that despite needing starting pitching in the wake of longtime ace Framber Valdez’s expected departure, the Astros were unlikely to replace Valdez by spending aggressively on a different free-agent arm.
A more cost-conscious strategy seemed to be in play when the Astros swung a trade to land a cheap and controllable starter in Mike Burrows from Pittsburgh, a nifty move that strengthened Houston’s starting staff but still left the depth chart wanting. Even so, given a longstanding organizational preference to avoid surpassing the luxury tax line and a projected payroll already well in excess of $200 million, Houston’s flexibility to add another impact arm appeared limited; a more modest add via trade or free agency seemed more plausible.
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The Astros had also never signed a player directly from NPB, having entered the winter as one of three teams with such a distinction, along with the Marlins and Rockies. That said, a few notable Japanese players have played in Houston, from Kaz Matsui to Nori Aoki and, most recently, Yusei Kikuchi. The club is also one year removed from selling the naming rights to its ballpark to Daikin, a Japanese industrial manufacturing conglomerate, perhaps an indication that the franchise was interested in expanding its brand globally. But considering that we had never seen Houston land a player through the posting system, it seemed like a stretch to link the Astros to Imai over teams with substantial histories of signing Japanese players, such as the Cubs, Mets, Yankees or even the Orioles.
However, remove the club’s history and payroll preferences, and the Astros did qualify as a logical fit for Imai as a contending team in dire need of impact starting pitching — especially on a deal of this size. Had Imai’s market ballooned to nine figures and lengthier terms, it’s difficult to envision the Astros being involved. But as it turned out, the market fell into Houston’s range, as some of the expected suitors such as the Yankees and Mets reportedly stayed out of the mix, opening the door for the Astros to swoop in and craft the kind of contract that stands to benefit both sides.
While Imai and his agent, Scott Boras, were unable to secure the nine-figure contract they were reportedly seeking originally, this deal could lead to a more sizable payday down the road. With opt-outs after 2026 and 2027, Imai can reenter the market at age 28 or 29 in the event that he excels immediately and establishes himself as an impact major-league starter. There are also highly attainable escalators based on innings pitched that can raise the contract’s guarantee to $63 million ($3M each year), so there’s financial upside baked into the existing deal as well.
The opt-outs are crucial and likely played a big part in sealing the deal for the Astros. Imai reportedly turned down longer-term offers with lower AAVs in favor of this contract. That would seem to indicate that the 27-year-old is confident he can pitch his way into a bigger payday in a year or two, which on its face would not be an especially favorable outcome for the Astros.
But herein lies a key difference between Murakami’s and Imai’s deals. If Murakami is indeed terrific right away, it’s unlikely that Chicago will be able to retain him when he becomes a free agent again in two years. Even more importantly, it’s difficult to envision the White Sox being competitive over the next two seasons, meaning the club might not benefit from Murakami’s production in a way that alters their place in the standings.
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The calculus is different in Houston. The overarching goal for the Astros is to keep their prolonged window of World Series contention open as long as possible. The 2025 season represented a sobering step back, with the team missing the postseason for the first time since 2016. Meanwhile, the division rival Mariners took a sizable step forward and now look like the team to beat on paper. But for all the dramatic roster turnover in Houston in recent years, there’s still enough talent in place to form a formidable club around franchise anchors Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez and, now, Brown atop the rotation.
So while it’s true that if Imai is fantastic right away, he might opt out in search of a larger deal — likely elsewhere if Houston maintains its aversion to long-term contracts for pitchers — if the Japanese righty is awesome in 2026, that could be the difference between Houston making a return to October and coming up short in a competitive American League. Even if this kind of deal tilts player-friendly, the upside is well worth pursuing for a franchise in Houston’s position.
Imai’s signing likely marks the end of Houston’s search for pitching this winter, having also acquired Burrows and signed Nate Pearson and Ryan Weiss to major-league deals. But that’s not to say general manager Dana Brown is finished doing business. Imai’s $18 million AAV puts Houston’s projected payroll just a touch below the first luxury tax line, according to FanGraphs. That leaves minimal wiggle room for another major addition if staying below the $244M mark is a goal, but another trade of a veteran could be in order, especially considering the crowded position-player group made more complicated by the return of Carlos Correa last summer.
With Correa entrenched at third base alongside Jeremy Peña at shortstop and the club reticent to play Altuve regularly at second base anymore (preferring him in left field or at DH), there aren’t enough spots in the lineup for regular at-bats for Altuve, Christian Walker, Isaac Paredes and Alvarez. And if Alvarez and Altuve are essentially alternating between DH and left field, that leaves just first base for Walker and Paredes. This makes Houston an intriguing team to monitor on the trade market in the coming weeks.
