In 2006, former NBA commissioner David Stern and the league rolled out new synthetic basketballs that were made with a composite material instead of leather. They didn’t bounce right. They didn’t feel right. It got so bad that they made the players’ hands bleed. It became a legitimate health concern.
Three months later, the NBA reversed course and rolled back the balls.
It’s time for the NBA to do the same with the 65-game rule. It was a foolish idea to begin with, thinking load management was the root cause of player absences and not a symptom of an increasingly taxing game. It’s time to admit it solved nothing and created more problems than the one it tried to address. Like the ill-fated synthetic balls, the NBA may have a larger player health concern on its hands.
(Grant Thomas/Yahoo Sports Illustration)
Will Cade Cunningham rush back?
By all accounts, Cade Cunningham has been one of the best players in the NBA this season, leading the Detroit Pistons to the top seed in the Eastern Conference and being the face of one of the feel-good stories in the league.
And then he collided with Tre Johnson early in Tuesday’s game against the tanking Washington Wizards. Before the game, Cunningham had been averaging 24.9 points, 10.1 assists and 5.6 rebounds. He was set to become the first Eastern Conference player since Oscar Robertson to average at least 24 points, 10 assists and 5 rebounds per game. He currently leads the NBA with 603 assists and no one is particularly close to eclipsing his total.
And yet, despite an incredible resumé throughout the season, Cunningham may not be eligible to earn an All-NBA spot or receive any MVP votes this season.
That’s because in 2023, the NBA implemented a 65-game rule intended to motivate players to play more. Instead, the rule has only exacerbated the NBA’s perception problem, artificially drawing more attention to the player health epidemic and unfairly penalizing players for injuries out of their control.
Like, for instance, Cunningham’s scary medical issue. On Thursday, it was announced that Cunningham is suffering from a collapsed lung, or what’s known in the medical community as a pneumothorax, that will sideline him for the foreseeable future. The team indicated he would be re-evaluated in two weeks, a mark in the schedule that — coincidentally or not — allows him to return juuuuust in time to still be eligible for season-long awards.
If Cunningham is cleared in two weeks, in time for an April 2 tilt against Minnesota, there would be six games left in the Pistons’ season. With 60 games on his ledger — his most recent game doesn’t count because his five minutes played fall short of the league-mandated 15 — Cunningham would have to play a sufficient number of minutes in five of the Pistons’ remaining six regular-season games.
Let’s hope the timetable was determined purely for his health and not out of concern for his award eligibility under the 65-game rule. For what it’s worth, the quickest return of a collapsed lung in recent NBA history is two weeks by Terrence Jones in 2015, but players like CJ McCollum and Gerald Wallace needed between three and six weeks. The last thing the NBA wants to do is incentivize players to risk serious medical harm in order to fulfill the core tenets of its Player Participation Policy. But unfortunately, Cunningham’s case raises legitimate questions about the incentives the league unnecessarily laid in front of the players.
As I wrote in January, the 65-game rule is a cure worse than the disease. Because of the NBPA-ratified rule that was issued in order to promote player health, Cunningham now has more incentive to potentially rush back against medical advice and put his lungs in danger. Surely, medical professionals will have the final say and Cunningham’s long-term health will be prioritized above all else, right?
Let’s hope so. Thankfully for Cunningham, this medical concern arose this season and not last season when he qualified for a $45 million bonus by earning All-NBA status. He signed for the maximum 30% maximum and therefore is not eligible for any additional bonuses this season.
In the case of Cunningham and the 65-game rule, we’re left to believe that Cunningham’s shortcoming is that he didn’t play through injuries enough. Except this injury is not a rub-some-dirt-on-it affliction. A trauma pneumothorax isn’t something the NBA wants a player to “tough out.”
What is clear is that if the goal of the 65-game rule was to encourage stars to play more, it’s not working.
NBA stars are missing more games
Your eyes aren’t deceiving you. NBA stars really are more absent than ever. The NBA’s official Player Participation Policy defines a star player as one who has been named to the All-Star or All-NBA team in any of the previous three seasons. By this definition, star players have been sidelined to an extent we have not yet seen.
Through every teams’ first 68 games in the schedule, NBA stars have played just 67.5% of their games. In other words, stars are missing about one out of every three games. And we haven’t even gotten to the final stretch in the season when playoff teams begin to rest stars ahead of the playoffs. It will likely get worse before it gets better.
To put this in perspective, 67.5% through 68 games is a massive drop from last season. At the same juncture last season, the play percentage for stars was 79.5%, a rate of playing four out of five games. Again, now it’s just two out of every three. The season before that, in 2023-24, the inaugural season of the 65-game rule, star players played a tick more at this point, suiting up in 80.4% of their games.
Trends are going in the wrong direction, and it’s creating a lot of unhappy fans and battered stars. The only star who may be happy about the 65-game rule is Karl-Anthony Towns. Believe it or not, he’s the only member of last year’s All-NBA team who is currently eligible for awards. That’s right: the other 14 members of the All-NBA team are either already disqualified for missing too many games or in jeopardy of missing the criteria altogether.
Among All-NBA First Team members, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jayson Tatum have already been eliminated from postseason award qualification. Nikola Jokić can miss only one more game. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Donovan Mitchell are one moderate injury away from being ruled ineligible.
Elsewhere on the 2024-25 All-NBA list, Stephen Curry, LeBron James, Tyrese Haliburton and Jalen Williams have already been disqualified. Jalen Brunson and James Harden are on track to make the cut, but Anthony Edwards, Evan Mobley and Cunningham will need luck on their side.
As of Friday morning, only seven players from the 2024-25 All-NBA squad are on pace to be eligible for awards. Seven of the 15. That means more than half of the team is positioned to miss the cut. And that’s not even considering other All-Stars from last year who have been too injured to qualify for All-NBA. Damian Lillard, Pascal Siakam, Trae Young, Darius Garland, Tyler Herro, Jaren Jackson Jr., Anthony Davis and Kyrie Irving would also miss the All-NBA cut as well.
Towns being the only eligible reigning All-NBA player is a fitting face to the NBA’s conundrum. The Knicks big man has seen his scoring plummet to levels unseen since his rookie season and his productivity measures are down across the board. Without the 65-game rule, he’d have little to no shot of making the team again. But with the 65-game rule, he might fall backwards onto the first-team honors and take the spot of more-deserving players like Cunningham.
What a difference a month makes. A few weeks ago, Cunningham was seen as the default MVP as a result of his star peers like Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokić falling prey to injury. Now, after a fluke elbow to his back, it’s Cunningham who is in jeopardy of losing eligibility status for both MVP and All-NBA. Cunningham’s trauma pneumothorax is a cold reminder that a player’s health status can change instantly without their control.
Towns making All-NBA First Team by default is one thing, but there are trickle-down effects of these star-crossed injuries. We’re not far away from a world in which Payton Pritchard or Towns’ teammate Mikal Bridges make All-NBA simply because all the more deserving players caught the injury bug here and there. The Pritchards of the world certainly deserve praise for avoiding injuries that captured their peers. So, here’s an idea: instead of a 65-game rule, why not go the other way and establish an Iron Man team?
Before we know it, the league awards will become a copy-and-paste Iron Man team across the board rather than celebrating greatness. Before the league incentivizes Cunningham or a future star to aggravate a serious medical condition, the 65-game rule should take its rightful place alongside the composite ball and go on the shelf of ill-fated NBA ideas.
The Washington Wizards are already getting the full Anthony Davis experience. Over a month after Davis was aquired by the team in a trade with the Dallas Mavericks, the 14-year veteran has yet to suit up with his new team due to an injury.
That injury — ligament damage in his left hand — will keep Davis sidelined at least through March, the team announced Friday.
The Wizards say Anthony Davis (left hand ligament damage) will remained sidelined at least through the end of March. He has yet to make his Washington debut. pic.twitter.com/BLZmMeJrNw
The team said an evaluation revealed that, while Davis “continues to progress positively,” his injury isn’t healed just yet. Because of that, the team will continue to let Davis rest and re-evaluate him at the end of the month.
Davis has not played in a game since Jan. 8, when he was still a member of the Mavericks, due to the injury. He has played in 20 games this season, averaging 20.4 points and 11.1 rebounds.
Under the team’s current plan, Davis will miss at least five more games before being re-evaluated. At that point, the Wizards would have seven regular-season games left on the schedule.
Given that, it might be in the team’s best interest to hold Davis out the rest of the season even if he’s able to fully recover. While the Wizards were initially optimistic about Davis returning to make his debut this season, conflicting reports in February suggested Davis was going to sit out the rest of the season in an attempt to get fully healthy for next year.
The latter scenario may be the most likely at this point considering the team’s current plan for Davis. The veteran is under contract with the Wizards for the 2026-27 NBA season, but then has a $62.8 million player option for the following year.
When drafting and playing fantasy baseball, it can align with how we invest in anything. If we are more risk-averse, we’ll avoid risky players because of injury and skill concerns. However, the average draft position (ADP) and market have been more efficient, where it becomes sharper. Risk can be relative, and the risk probability tends to be higher if the draft price is higher. Often, we’ll hear a high-risk, high-reward player, which indicates a player with a high cost who possesses tons of upside.
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Raisel Iglesias, RP, Braves (ADP: 125.1)
Admittedly, I’ve been a sucker for Raisel Iglesias because of his consistent role, skills and team context. Iglesias was shaky in the first half, with nine saves, 5.28 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and a 14.8% swinging-strike rate. However, he turned up the heat in the second half, with 20 saves, 1.47 ERA, 0.68 WHIP and 15.8% swinging-strike rate. Iglesias still throws a nasty changeup that elicits a 25.1% swinging-strike rate, with the slider generating a 17.5% swinging-strike rate in 2025. That’s within 1-2 percentage points of Iglesias’s career norms in swinging-strike rate via the changeup and slider.
Here’s a look at Iglesias’ 15-game rolling averages over the past three seasons.
Beyond Iglesias’ role and skill, there have been concerns about the Braves adding Robert Suárez, who saved 76 games over the past two seasons as the Padres’ closer. We don’t expect Iglesias to share save opportunities with Suárez to begin the season. However, we could speculate that Suárez could eat into the save percentage if Iglesias struggles again in 2026.
The Slovenian star posted 60 points in a 134-126 win over the Miami Heat, the highest scoring total of his Lakers career and tied for the second-highest mark of his career. It’s also the Lakers’ first 60-pointer since Kobe Bryant’s legendary “Mamba Out” farewell game in 2016.
The last Laker to score more than 60 points was Bryant with 61 on Feb. 2, 2009.
Between Thursday and Dončić’s 40 points in the first night of the back-to-back, he posted 100 points in the span of 25 hours. He has averaged 40.9 points in his past eight games.
His full line: 60 points on 18-of-30 shooting from the field (9-of-17 on 3-pointers and 15-of-19 on free throws), 7 rebounds, 5 steals, 3 assists and 2 turnovers.
Players to score at least 60 points on the second night of a back to back:
Wilt Chamberlain x14 Michael Jordan x2 Stephen Curry Shaquille O’Neal Jerry West Allen Iverson Devin Booker Elgin Baylor Tracy McGrady George Mikan Damian Lillard Tom Chambers
Dončić had only 21 points at halftime, at which point the Lakers were down 65-59 and seemingly feeling the effects of the back-to-back. They came alive with a 15-1 run midway through the third quarter, and then Dončić scored 20 points to put the game away in the fourth.
And because some people might care about this now, Bam Adebayo had 28 points and 10 rebounds while making 7-of-10 free throws.
This win is the Lakers’ eighth straight and 11th in their past 12 games. That has improved their record to 45-25, still good for third in the Western Conference.
That run of success has seen Dončić enter the conversation for his first career NBA MVP award. He now has the second-best odds of any player on BetMGM at +1500, though that’s a distant second behind the favorite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is -1000 to win the award for the second straight year.
Regardless of what hardware Dončić receives, this is good as he’s looked since the inexplicable trade that sent him to Los Angeles. And it remains to be seen what else the Lakers accomplish this season.
Victor Wembanyama drained a game-winner to lift the San Antonio Spurs past the Phoenix Suns on Thursday night. The 101-100 win was enough to secure the franchise its first playoff spot since the 2018-19 campaign, when Gregg Popovich was still the head coach.
With the Spurs down by a point in the final seconds at the Frost Bank Center, Wembanyama caught an inbounds pass and stalled a bit on the wing. With time ticking down, he dribbled once and hit a bucket over an outstretched Oso Ighodaro just outside of the lane. That shot, which fell with 1.1 seconds left on the clock, was enough to lift the Spurs to the one-point win and spark a huge celebration on the court.
After the game, Spurs sixth man Keldon Johnson led teammates and the arena’s fans in serenading Wembanyama with an “M-V-P” chant.
The Spurs entered halftime in a seven-point hole, and slowly crawled back into the game in the second half. After Jordan Goodwin hit a 3-pointer for the Suns with 73 seconds left, San Antonio held Phoenix scoreless the rest of the way to spark the comeback win. Wembanyama hit a pair of free throws and then De’Aaron Fox made an easy bucket to cut the deficit back to a point. Rasheer Fleming missed a pair of free throws, which set up Wembanyama’s game-winner.
Collin Gillespie led the Suns with 24 points and six assists in the loss, which dropped them to 39-31 on the season. Devin Booker finished with 22 points, and Ighodaro had 15 points, 7 rebounds and 7 assists.
Fox added 23 points and seven rebounds for the Spurs. Julian Champagnie finished with 14 points, and Devin Vassell had 12. The win was the team’s fourth straight and its 20th in a 22-game stretch that has launched the Spurs up the Western Conference standings. They are now second, three games back from the Oklahoma City Thunder and more than seven games ahead of the Los Angeles Lakers.
While a playoff appearance was almost certainly going to happen this season based on how the Spurs have been playing in recent weeks, it’s now a done deal. The Spurs are in.
There’s no bigger payday than the one awaiting baseball players on the other side of free agency. We saw nine players this offseason take home contracts worth north of $100 million over the course of the deal. Nearly 20 free agents got deals worth $20 million annually or more. Some of those names who got paid big were top fantasy baseball assets in 2025, including Dylan Cease, Pete Alonso, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker and Cody Bellinger.
We all know money talks, so here are some of the most notable soon-to-be free agents in 2027, playing for their next contract, who are worth keeping an eye on going into the 2026 fantasy baseball season.
Note: We’re excluding players with opt-out clauses (Bo Bichette) and those with club options (Ozzie Albies, Luis Robert Jr., William Contreras), sticking to unrestricted free agents, per Sportrac.
Batters
Jazz Chisholm Jr., 2B/3B, Yankees
Jazz is a true UFA in 2027 and enters this season making just under $12 million. His market value should land him above $20 AAV, so long as he has another strong season in the Bronx. Last year, Chisholm finished with career highs in homers (31) and RBI (80) while stealing over 30 bags with an .813 OPS. The 28-year-old made his second All-Star appearance and ranked fourth in WAR among second basemen at 4.2.
Chisholm has solid placement in a Yankees lineup that should finish toward the top in terms of scoring. There’s no reason he can’t duplicate his numbers from last season and has even stated his lofty expectations for himself publicly going into free agency in 2027. Right now, Jazz is a consensus second-round pick at a weak 2B position, so you aren’t getting much value in terms of ADP. But if Chisholm wants that big payday, he should duplicate or exceed his numbers from 2025.
Randy Arozarena, OF, Mariners
The 2021 AL Rookie of the Year was dealt to the Mariners from Tampa Bay prior to the deadline back in 2024. We all remember his magical run during 2020 with 10 HRs in 20 games before the Rays lost to the Dodgers in the World Series. His career trajectory has been slowly on a downward angle since then, though he did set a career high with 27 HRs last season in Seattle.
Arozarena’s borderline 30-30 season may get fantasy managers and GMs a bit hype but his underlying numbers aren’t that great. He set another career high with 191 strikeouts in 160 games and is on the other side of 30 years old. Still, Arozarena has that next contract in mind, giving him plenty of motivation along with the M’s World Series hopes. As the OF24 on Yahoo, Arozarena isn’t the worst outfield target in the middle rounds of your draft.
Alec Bohm, 1B/3B, Phillies
Bohm once looked like the future at one of the corner infield positions for the Phillies. But after 2025, there’s a good chance this is his last chance to prove himself in Philly. Bohm only played 120 last season after a strong 2024 in which he had 15 HRs and 97 RBI. His power went down from a .168 ISO to .123 last season, when he missed time due to a fractured rib.
He has three homers in 10 games this spring and has a lot to prove to get paid this upcoming offseason. If Bohm can get his power back and hit 20+ dingers, there’s a good chance he becomes a strong sleeper pick late in your fantasy draft. His ADP right now on Yahoo is 196.4, meaning he’s going undrafted in plenty of leagues. Bohm isn’t a bad final pick given the depth at 1B and 3B this season.
Honorable mentions: Adolis García, Brandon Lowe, Gleyber Torres, Luis Arráez, Taylor Ward
Pitchers
Tarik Skubal, Tigers
As the SP1 overall on Yahoo, there’s not much that needs to be covered with Skubal’s pending free agency. There’s a good chance the Tigers opt to deal the ace prior to the deadline this season, before he could potentially walk in free agency before 2027. The two-time back-to-back AL Cy Young winner doesn’t have much else to prove but we also know he wants to get that big contract.
Skubal should set the market with the biggest SP contract in MLB history, which could be in the $45 million per season range. The highest-paid pitcher on an AAV basis is Phillies ace Zack Wheeler at $42 million per season. You could make a case for Paul Skenes or Garrett Crochet as the top pitching option in fantasy baseball. But if you need a tie-breaker of sorts, you could look at Skubal’s pending free agency.
Freddy Peralta, Mets
The Mets acquired Peralta from the Brewers this offseason to shore up the rotation. He should operate as New York’s ace, set to pitch on Opening Day vs. the Pirates against Skenes. Peralta will turn 30 years old this summer but has been one of the more consistent pitchers in baseball over the past three seasons. He’s coming off a career-high 17 wins for Milwaukee in 2025, finishing with a sub-3.00 ERA for the second time in his career.
If all goes well in his first season in Queens, Peralta should see over 170 innings, 200+ strikeouts and be in the NL Cy Young race. He’ll have one of the best offenses in baseball backing him up and has plenty of incentive to perform at a high level again. As the SP15 on average in Yahoo drafts, Peralta presents plenty of value if he can replicate last season’s effort for the Brewers.
David Bednar, Yankees
The 31-year-old pitched well in New York as the closer after being dealt by the Pirates prior to the deadline last season. He posted 10 saves with a 12.8 K/9 and sub-1.00 WHIP over 22 appearances for the Yanks. With Devin Williams and Luke Weaver across town in Queens this season, Bednar takes over as the no-doubt closer for a Yankees team that is the favorite to win the AL East.
Bednar is being drafted as the RP6 on Yahoo but would it surprise anyone if he led the American League in saves? He led the NL in saves with 39 back in 2023 for a Pirates team that won just 76 games. There’s also a good chance the Yanks cut Bednar loose after 2026 to make room for promising young prospect, Carlos Lagrange. Bednar is a great closer target in the mid-rounds of drafts this season playing for a new deal.
With the 2026 MLB season approaching, you’re in the heat of your drafts. Yahoo analysts Scott Pianowski, Fred Zinkie and Corbin Young go around the table, sharing the batter and pitcher they’re most excited to draft this season.
Batters were most excited to draft
Plenty of value in Milwaukee
I’m glad I already have some Juan Soto shares, a fun and automatic pick if he’s there at fourth overall. He’s in the prime of his career, now stealing bases and insulated by a deep New York lineup. Maybe the timing is right for an MVP run.
For some of my value picks, I’ll gravitate to Milwaukee, the best value-driven franchise in baseball. Brice Turang is one of those underrated players who does everything well. Andrew Vaughn has post-hype sleeper written all over him. And the quality of the Milwaukee defense will also push several of their pitchers to ADP-winning seasons as well. — Scott Pianowski
I’m predicting a Keaschall breakout and am trying to draft him on all of my teams. He showed last year that he has plenty of plate patience (9.2% walk rate) and can limit whiffs (14.0% strikeout rate). The infielder has a terrific batting eye, as his 20% chase rate is an excellent mark. He makes up for a mediocre quality of contact by keeping his batted ball on a low trajectory (45.8% ground ball rate, 20.3% line drive rate) and utilizing his 85th percentile average sprint speed.
From a premium spot in the Twins lineup, Keaschall will hit .285 with 90 runs, 35 steals and a double-digit homer total. The icing on the cake is that Keaschall is eligible at second base, which is one of the weakest fantasy positions this season. I see him as a clone of Cubs’ Nico Hoerner, with the added bonus of being available 2-3 rounds later in drafts. Some managers may be scared off by the amount of time Keaschall missed in 2025, but his fractured forearm was a fluke injury and not a reflection on the 23-year-old’s durability. Managers in category leagues can prioritize power hitters and balanced contributors in the early rounds before grabbing Keaschall as their primary speedster in Round 10. — Fred Zinkie
If I’m feeling risky, it’s Luis Robert Jr. Robert joins the Mets after being on one of the worst franchises in baseball. On a per-plate appearance basis, Robert would average 18 home runs and 36 stolen bases over the past two seasons if we projected him for 550 plate appearances. Injuries have been a concern, but there’s a chance that Robert puts in extra work to remain healthy with an improved team context.
Besides 2023, Robert hasn’t hit 20 home runs, though the power skills exit with a career 10.1% barrel rate and 75.6 mph bat speed, both above the league norm. Furthermore, the Mets’ home park ranked 7th in Home Run Park Factors compared to 18th for the White Sox. That should boost Robert’s home run chances in a more hitter-friendly venue for right-handed hitters.
Making contact can be an issue for Robert, but he crushes the ball when he hits it. What’s somewhat impressive involves Robert showing improved plate discipline by chasing less often over the past two seasons. He went from a 38.6% chase rate in 2023 to 35.6% in 2024 and 32.1% in 2025. That coincided with Robert’s zone swing rates dipping to 71.7% in 2024 and 74.3% in 2025, four percentage points below the league average. Robert looks like he made an actionable approach to improve plate discipline, which can be challenging, while continuing to hit the ball hard.
If I’m looking for a discount on a solid player, it’s Bryan Reynolds, who averaged 24 home runs and five or more stolen bases for four straight seasons. He had his worst season from a production standpoint since his rookie year in 2019 when we toss out the 2020 season. From a skills standpoint, most of Reynolds’s advanced metrics look similar. Reynolds had a 73.5% contact rate, 10.1% barrel rate and 72.2 mph bat speed, all within 1-2 percentage points of his career norms.
He expressed frustration with the outcomes in 2025 after feeling like he was hitting the ball well, which the underlying metrics indicate. Buy the dip on Reynolds because there’s a good chance he makes a mechanical adjustment and the skills point to a similar player moving forward. — Corbin Young
Pitchers were most excited to draft
A Tale of Two Logans
I hope a handful of my pitching staffs are helmed by either of the two Logans — Gilbert and Webb. Both righties are in big parks and tied to good defenses and competitive teams. I also like how both have proven the ability to succeed without maxing out on velocity, which could give them an assist in staying healthy (I acknowledge that Webb did have a Tommy John surgery, but it was 10 years ago). I’ll have both names on speed dial as I navigate the third and fourth rounds. — Scott Pianowski
Don’t ‘Mis’ out on this potential
I’ll take all of the Jacob Misiorowski shares. Remember the 2025 MLB All-Star Game and the controversy surrounding the decision to name Misiorowski as the NL starter? If you told me at that time that he would be available past pick 100 in 2026 drafts, I would have thought you were crazy. Misiorowski struggled at times in the second half (5.36 ERA) but still recorded a ridiculous 12.1 K/9 rate and solid 3.93 FIP over that stretch. And when many fantasy managers had turned their attention to football, he was one of the stars of October. In the NLDS, the flamethrower earned two wins while allowing one run over seven innings. He followed up that performance by striking out nine Dodgers over five innings in his lone NLCS appearance.
Among starting pitchers, only Hunter Greene logged a higher average fastball velocity than Misiorowski, who has 200-strikeout potential in his first full season. Managers who are passing on Misiorowski in favor of boring veterans such as Kevin Gausman or Sonny Gray are making a big mistake. He’s one of the most talented youngsters to enter the Majors in recent years and benefits from being part of an organization that consistently maximizes the effectiveness of their starters. After all, if Milwaukee pitching coach Chris Hook and turn Chad Patrick and Quinn Priester into effective starters, he can make Misiorowski a superstar. — Fred Zinkie
Don’t sleep on Cease
This is the year that I’m planning to wait on starting pitchers to attack those breakout picks in the middle and sleepers late in the draft. Trust the skills of Dylan Cease, though we have WHIP concerns. Cease was unlucky from a BABIP perspective, yet maintained a strong 20% K-BB% and 15.6% swinging-strike rate. A reminder from an advanced stats piece that K-BB% strongly correlates with Skill Interactive ERA or SIERA. Cease had a 3.58 SIERA in 2025, similar to 2024 (3.46).
He has a dominant slider that generates a swinging-strike rate above 20% (21.3%), which he relies on heavily to right-handed hitters (45.3%), leading to positive outcomes (.273 wOBA, .233 xwOBA). The challenge comes against left-handed hitters, with the slider and curveball performing well when he finds success. Cease toyed with a changeup, but look for him to throw more sinkers or make a small tweak to the arsenal against left-handed hitters. He provides volume and strikeout upside at the price. — Corbin Young
The beauty of baseball involves extensive data and advanced stats available for us as fans and fantasy baseball managers. The downside, if we can call it that, involves over 200 players being drafted in most Yahoo leagues, with some deeper formats drafting 450 or more. If you’re like me and love diving into players, it takes time. Instead of digging into every fantasy-relevant player on all teams, we want to take the time to find outliers.
Sometimes these outliers can win or lose us weeks (in head-to-head formats) or win or lose us leagues. Breakout players and busts come from situations where the luck factors and skills either aligned in a positive or negative way. One of the biggest questions we ask heading into the following season is whether a player can replicate their success or we should ignore their struggles from the previous year.
We’ll touch on luck factors for hitters and pitchers to keep in mind, plus examine several hitters and pitchers; the goal for the player-level examination is to provide a path for how we might decide whether a player can replicate their success or if we can ignore the struggles from the previous season.
During the season, we should be able to follow a similar path, though the sample might be smaller, which makes the decisions more difficult.
Be Mindful of Hitter Luck Factors
BABIP or Hit Rate
As we mentioned in the introduction to the advanced stats article, we want to examine a player’s data and compare it to their career norms instead of the league average. The same goes for skills, advanced metrics and luck factors. One luck factor is batting average on balls in play (BABIP) or hit rate. Often, we can find hitters have outlier-level (high or low) batting averages related to their high or low BABIP. A player’s BABIP qualifies as a luck factor, meaning there will be variance, but sometimes it isn’t as controllable.
However, we have some hitters who run higher BABIPs because they put the ball in play often, especially with fewer home runs since BABIP removes homers and strikeouts. Speed becomes a factor because faster players may have better batting averages when they put the ball into play. Examples would be José Caballero, Chandler Simpson, Oneil Cruz and Trea Turner, all of whom have high stolen base totals while running higher BABIPs because they’re fast athletes.
Since BABIP doesn’t include home runs, hitters who have higher flyball rates tend to have lower BABIP since flyballs that aren’t home runs tend to be outs. Think about Cal Raleigh, Kyle Schwarber or other elite power hitters who put the ball in the air often; they tend to have lower batting averages and BABIPs. Sure, they could have a higher batting average like Nick Kurtz, but many might be skeptical of a repeat based on the plate discipline and hitter profile.
Home Run to Flyball Rate (HR/F)
Another luck factor is the home run to flyball rate, which is the percentage of home runs per flyball. Like BABIP, check how a hitter fares in HR/F based on their career averages instead of the league norm. If hitters post higher exit velocities, their median projection for HR/F should be around 15-20%. In the near-elite to elite power range, we find hitters post HR/F at 18% or significantly above 20%. However, hitters with a 20% HR/F tend to be the 75th to 90th percentile outcomes.
Often, breakout performances come from players who combine luck and skill. For example, Aaron Judge posted a 30% HR/F over the past four seasons, with over 50 home runs in three out of four seasons. That coincides with Judge’s elite and outlier power metrics. Besides the power skills and exit velocities, the consistent launch angles to hit flyballs matter. Think about some hitters that hit the ball hard, but most often on the ground, like Christian Yelich, Cruz, James Wood and Yandy Díaz. That said, we’ll look at hitters who could see their HR/F rate regress in 2026.
Hitter Skills
The skills for hitters involve plate discipline, power and speed. Plate discipline includes chase, swing, and contact rates. It’s somewhat more difficult to make more contact or improve plate discipline for hitters, though sometimes we find slight variations. That’s notable because hitters can hit the ball hard via bat speed training and strength programs. An example would be Brice Turang, who started hitting the ball harder with better bat speeds, separating himself from the likes of Steven Kwan.
We can typically trust that a hitter can sustain the power skills, especially if they’ve shown it over a decent sample. The idea that it’s unsustainable for a hitter to repeat involves situations where there are mediocre or below-average power skills, yet a hitter’s outcomes (home runs) were higher than expected. Of course, there are instances where the home park factors into the hitter’s outcomes like in Cincinnati, Colorado, Seattle and New York (Yankees). If a hitter typically hit the ball hard, and it fell in a recent season or parts of the season, we could speculate on an injury, assuming it was reported. That’s especially true for back, oblique, lower body, and hand injuries since all components have a key role in swinging hard.
It helps to have hitters who have above-average speed and athleticism when we’re looking at stolen bases. A minor-league track record for stolen bases can give us a slight signal, though the team contexts matter more. It’s probably a bit harder to track which teams tend to run, though we can figure that out via stolen base opportunities. We’ve seen some managers, like Dan Wilson and Dave Martinez, have their players run more often on the base paths, especially with the new stolen base rules in recent seasons. However, it’s not a perfect correlation because the players on the team matter. As we mentioned with injuries, we find hitters stealing less often if there was an injury, especially a lower-body one.
We’ll focus on four hitters who can replicate their previous season or decide whether we should ignore them.
Can These Hitters Replicate the Previous Season or Should We Ignore?
Can Jonathan Aranda Replicate the High Batting Average?
When a hitter like Jonathan Aranda posts a .409 BABIP, we should expect regression. Aranda was fortunate in 2025 from a batting-average standpoint, especially since he hit a ton more line drives after being groundball-heavy. Line drives can be fluky to rely on, though he showed a strong hit tool in the minors and decent plate discipline with a league-average contact rate (77.1%) in 2025. Aranda doesn’t have the speed or athleticism to maintain high BABIPs, so expect Aranda’s to regress in 2026, closer to .250 or .260 like the projections suggest, instead of something over .300.
Here’s a look at Aranda’s 15-game rolling average over the past three seasons.
Will Nick Kurtz Replicate 2025?
There’s no denying Nick Kurtz’s power, given his 77.2 mph bat speed and 72.6% fast swing rate. Kurtz struggles to make contact (64%), yet we would take his .278 xBA since he crushes the ball. When hitters like Kurtz have elite power skills, they can sustain higher home run rates (HR/F). The 90th percentile HR/F for hitters with his type of power was around 25%, so Kurtz lives in the elite range of outcomes. It’s weird to see Kurtz have a high BABIP (.364) given his high flyball (43%) approach. It helps that Kurtz plays his home games in Sutter Health Park again in Sacramento because it tends to boost hitting, with 40 expected home runs in their home park.
Here’s a look at Nick Kurtz’s bat speed and swing% and his bat speed and contact% from 2025.
We could see his BABIP regress, meaning his batting average will shift somewhere between his xBA and around .260, as the projections suggest. Since Kurtz struggles to make contact, we might expect his batting averages to be below .250. However, it’s worth noting that Kurtz used a patient approach with a 22.2% chase rate, nearly six points below the league average. There was a similar trend with Kurtz’s swing rates, hinting at him being patient and selective.
Kurtz can replicate 2025, though it will come over a large sample of plate appearances, meaning the per-plate appearance data likely won’t sustain. When hitters struggle to make contact, we want them to punish the ball with their bat speed and exit velocities. That’s what Kurtz does. Kurtz’s luck factors should regress slightly, making him a high-risk, high-reward hitter given the skills and price.
Will Oneil Cruz’s Batting Average Bounce Back?
When on the clock, sometimes Oneil Cruz will tease you in the draft after going 21/22 with a .259 BA in 2024, which dipped down to 20/38 and a .200 BA in 2025. Like Kurtz, Cruz struggles to make contact with his massive 6-foot-7 frame. On the surface, Cruz’s luck factors impacted the batting average, evidenced by a .347 BABIP in 2024, down to a .262 BABIP in 2025.
Here’s a look at the Pirates Shortstop’s 15-game rolling average over the past three seasons.
Interestingly, Cruz maintained his contact rates yet seemed to attempt for a more patient approach. That’s evident in Cruz’s chase, swing and zone swing rates dropping by 3-5 percentage points in 2025, compared to 2024. Groundballs have been an issue, with a 47-48% groundball rate. However, Cruz crushes flyballs and line drives when he elevates the ball, ranking third in average exit velocity on flyballs and line drives (EV on FB/LD) at 99.4 mph behind Shohei Ohtani (100.4 mph) and Kyle Schwarber (99.5 mph). That’s nearly 1 mph harder than Cruz’s EV on FB/LD in 2024 (98.5), ranking fifth.
Cruz’s batting average should bounce back since he hits the ball hard while possessing elite speed (93rd percentile) and athleticism. However, Cruz’s batting average might be closer to his career xBA (.233) than his 2025 batting average. For what it’s worth, Cruz is currently hitting a clean 1.000 with two home runs in three at-bats in the World Baseball Classic.
Will George Springer Replicate 2025?
George Springer focused on swinging faster last season, with a 73.7 mph bat speed and a 40.2% fast swing rate. Furthermore, Springer boasted a career-best barrel rate per plate appearance (10.8%), over three percentage points higher than his career norm (7.2%). He went from mediocre power skills from 2022 to 2024 to ballooning to above-average in 2025. We should expect home run regression because Springer’s 32 home runs likely overperformed based on expectations. It’s a matter of regression to what, though, because Springer’s home run projections have been just under 25 home runs for most.
Here’s a look at the Blue Jays OFers barrel/PA percentage by season.
Springer’s home run projection feels like a reasonable outcome, with the stolen bases a sneaky part of his profile. There’s still above-average speed and athleticism for Springer, though he remains efficient with a 94% stolen base conversion rate over the past two seasons with a decent 11-12% stolen base opportunity percentage.
Bake in some home run regression, but 23-25 home runs and 12-15 stolen bases remain a probable outcome to somewhat replicate the 2025 season.
Can These Starting Pitchers Replicate Last Season or Should We Ignore?
There have been mixed thoughts on whether pitchers can control BABIP and hits. Like a hitter’s BABIP, pitchers can be fortunate if they strand runners at a high rate, compared to their career averages. However, high-end pitchers will strand runners because of their strikeout skills. We heard similar conversations about whether pitchers can control the contact quality. However, there’s enough research to show us that pitchers can generate whiffs and weak contact based on the pitch movement profiles and locations.
Generally speaking, pitches with plenty of downward movement should generate more whiffs and ones with more horizontal fade and sweep can elicit weak contact. Skilled pitches can prevent hits and hard contact. Typically, these skilled pitchers elicit swings and misses, making them priority targets in drafts. We’ll examine four pitchers and their stats from 2025 to decide whether they can replicate their previous season or whether we should ignore them.
Can Cade Horton Replicate 8th-Best ERA (2.53)?
Cade Horton posted elite ratios in his rookie season. However, Horton might have one of the bigger gaps between his ERA and xERA, suggesting to be cautious on him replicating his 2025 season. Horton’s skills were mediocre, not mind-blowing, evidenced by a 13% strikeout minus walk rate (K-BB%), 34% ball rate and 11.5% swinging-strike rate. In the minor leagues, we saw Horton post 13-15% swinging strike rates, so there could be more whiffs in the future.
That’s especially true when we consider Horton nearly had two pitches with a 20% swinging-strike rate. Horton’s slider (19%) and changeup (21.5%) led his arsenal from a swinging-strike rate, theoretically helping him against either side of the plate. The sweeping slider possesses above-average downward movement, but the changeup lacks an above-average movement profile.
Here’s a look at the Cubs SP’s expected wOBA against right-handed batters by month last season.
Thankfully, Horton’s sweeper (.209 wOBA, .219 xwOBA) performed well against right-handed hitters, with the four-seam allowing a wOBA under .300 (.255), yet a .374 xwOBA. Besides the sweeper and four-seamer, no other pitches fared well with a wOBA under .300 against right-handed hitters. We saw similar outcomes against left-handed hitters, with his changeup allowing a .163 wOBA (.237 xwOBA) and the curveball giving up a .231 wOBA (.233 xwOBA).
The data points to being cautious on Horton replicating his rookie season.
Will Yoshinobu Yamamoto provide ace-like outcomes again?
After shoulder injuries in 2024, Yoshinobu Yamamoto pitched like an ace, with a 2.49 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 20% K-BB% and a 13% swinging-strike rate across 173 innings. He continued that dominance into the playoffs, throwing an additional 37 innings, with a 1.45 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 18.8% K-BB% and a 3.05 Skill Interactive ERA (SIERA). There have been some with concerns about Yamamoto’s workload of over 200 innings when combining the regular and postseason, especially since many of the Dodgers’ starting pitchers have injury concerns.
Here’s a look at the Dodgers SP’s pitch percentage against right-handed batters by month over the past two seasons.
Yamamoto’s 3.04 xERA suggests some regression, but the skills point toward a near-elite starting pitcher. He maintained his pitch mix against left-handed hitters, but made a slight adjustment to right-handed hitters by lowering his four-seam usage by nearly 10 percentage points (32.1%). That coincided with Yamamoto throwing more sinkers (14.5%) and cutters (11.1%) against right-handed hitters in 2025. Both the sinker and cutter were thrown 8-9 percentage points higher in 2025 against righties.
Here’s a look at the Reds SP’s 10-game rolling averages for ERA, BABIP and FIP the past three seasons.
There’s a good chance Abbott might give up more home runs, especially since there’s a small margin for error when pitchers like him rely on their command. Abbott averaged a 104 Location+, with all five pitches having a Location+ at 103 or higher, aligning with the command we see in the heatmaps. The slider is the only pitch with an above-average swinging-strike rate (18.4%), with his changeup (12.9%) and cutter (13.9%) being the other two offerings missing bats at a double-digit rate.
Be cautious with Abbott, though 2024 might be a more reasonable outcome (3.72 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) while giving up more home runs. Abbott’s draft cost bakes in the regression, so we don’t need to overcount it for 2026. We shouldn’t ignore the success because Abbott profiles as a command-over-stuff starting pitcher.
Should or Shouldn’t We Ignore Shane Baz’s Rough Patch in 2025?
Shane Baz was recovering from Tommy John surgery in 2024 and pitched well with a 3.06 ERA and 1.06 WHIP across 79 innings. There was optimism for Baz heading into 2025, but the outcomes didn’t align with expectations. Baz threw 166 innings, with awful results (4.87 ERA, 1.33 WHIP), yet Baz’s 3.84 xERA suggests poor luck. That’s notable because Baz’s skills sustained from 2024 into 2025, evidenced by a 34% ball rate and 12% swinging-strike rate.
Here’s a look at Baz’s 10-game rolling averages for ERA, HR/FB and Swinging Strike% over the past two seasons.
Besides Baz’s BABIP and strand rate regression in an unfavorable way, he gave up more home runs, with a 15% HR/F in 2025, up from 9% in 2024. It’s worth noting that Baz played in George Steinbrenner Field in 2025, which ranked sixth in home run park factor, tying them with the Athletics’ home park. Baz pitched in a hitter-friendly home park in 2025, which looks similar in 2026 while playing in Camden Yards (5th-best home run park factor).
Here’s a look at Baz’s pitch percentage vs. right-handed batters by month from the past three seasons.
Baz added a cutter in 2025, which looked like a harder version of his slider with gyro-slide movement. For context, Baz’s cutter had very little horizontal movement, yet lost 10 inches of downward movement (25.6 inches) compared to the slider (35.6 inches). Baz’s cutter hasn’t been dominant against right-handed hitters, allowing a .325 wOBA (.283 xwOBA) in 2025 as his third-most used pitch (14.3%) behind the four-seam (46.3%) and knuckle curve (32.3%).
Here’s a look at Baz’s swing and miss percentage since 2021.
Baz’s slider used to be his best pitch for whiffs with a 21-23% swinging-strike rate in 2021 and 2022. However, those were smaller samples and Baz made adjustments to the arsenal after recovering from Tommy John surgery in 2024. Baz tends to have some reverse splits, with poorer results against right-handed hitters than left-handed hitters. That’s evident in his knuckle curve being the primary quality offering against righties (.268 wOBA, .270 xwOBA). However, Baz has multiple quality pitches against left-handed hitters, including the changeup (.270 wOBA, .245 xwOBA) and knuckle curve (.255 wOBA, .214 xwOBA).
Baz will be a stuff (107 Stuff+) over command (98 Location+) starting pitcher. That suggests we should chase pitchers like Baz, as a low-risk, high-upside option. Don’t ignore Baz in drafts based on the poor results from 2025.
After looking at ballpark effects on hitters on Tuesday, we will turn our attention to hurlers. Overall, the impact on pitchers will be the exact opposite as the impact on hitters. For example, if Coors Field is a hitter’s paradise, it’s also a death blow to the fantasy baseball value of any pitcher. But there is more nuance in some circumstances.
For example, strikeout tendencies by ballpark matter more for pitchers, as those totals are more directly tied to their fantasy production. And although home run tendencies matter greatly for hitters, the impact on pitchers is more closely tied to pure run production, unless the pitcher is especially prone to allowing homers.
Here are some ballpark tendencies from 2025 that fantasy managers will want to know before drafting and setting their lineups.
Best Overall Park Factors (2025)
Worst Overall Park Factors (2025)
T-Mobile Park (SEA) 91
Coors Field (COL) 115
Globe Life Field (TEX) 91
Sutter Health Park (ATH) 108
Progressive Field (CLE) 95
Comerica Park (DET) 105
Petco Park (SD) 95
Dodger Stadium (LAD) 104
PNC Park (PIT) 96
Oriole Park at Camden Yards (BAL) 103
Kauffman Stadium (KC) 97
Fenway Park (BOS) 103
loanDepot park (MIA) 97
Rogers Centre (TOR) 103
Daikin Park (HOU) 97
Busch Stadium (STL) 97
Classic Pitchers Parks
T-Mobile Park
Although the Mariners have several pitchers who are coveted in fantasy circles, it’s fair to wonder if their home park embellishes their true talent. After all, last season Seattle hurlers produced a 3.28 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP at home, in comparison to a 4.50 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP on the road. That’s the difference between being the baseball pitching staff in baseball and a bottom-10 group. Fortunately, fantasy managers can bake in the T-Mobile advantage to the long-time Seattle starters who remain with the team this year.
Globe Life Field
Life is tough for hitters in the AL West, as Globe Life Field has quickly separated from the pack to join T-Mobile in their own tier of offense-suppressers. In fact, Globe Life could be the worst park for hitters, as it is not only tied with T-Mobile in overall park factor, but it ranked 28th (ahead of Busch Stadium and PNC Park) in terms of producing home runs.
Although the durability of Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi remains in question, they are both likely to be excellent on a per-game basis. And MacKenzie Gore has a good chance for a breakout season now that he has been moved from the Nats to the Rangers. Finally, although Jack Leiter has not yet shown exciting skills, he is still a former notable prospect who will continue to benefit from his home venue.
The best of the rest
The next tier of pitcher-friendly parks includes several venues that are well-known for aiding hurlers, including Petco Park (Padres), PNC Park (Pirates), Busch Stadium (Cardinals), Kauffman Stadium (Royals), loanDepot park (Marlins) and Daikin Park (Astros).
Hitter-friendly parks
Coors Field
There is no need to spend significant time reminding everyone that Coors Field remains undefeated in terrorizing pitchers. The Rockies rarely produce a viable fantasy pitching option, and most opposing pitchers should be benched in Coors Field. Colorado’s deep rebuild and lackluster roster are the only reasons to be a little more liberal with road starters at Coors, especially early in the season when the weather remains cold.
Sutter Health Park
Luis Severino has been vocal about his dislike for the Athletics temporary home. He likely isn’t the only one, as the Athletics logged a 4.96 ERA at home and a 4.42 mark on the road last season. The team has a few pitchers who could be sleepers this season, especially Jacob Lopez and Luis Morales. Unfortunately, the hitter-friendly nature of their home venue makes them less appealing in the final rounds of drafts.
The best of the rest
Comerica Park (Tigers) played surprisingly well for hitters last season, not that Tarik Skubal noticed. It is part of the second tier of hitter-friendly parks, along with Dodger Stadium (Dodgers), Oriole Park at Camden Yards (Orioles), Rogers Centre (Blue Jays) and Fenway Park (Red Sox).
Strikeout superiority
Some fans may not be aware that, in addition to having an impact on batted balls, some parks have qualities that lead to more or fewer strikeouts. Here are the parks at each end of the spectrum.
Best Strikeout Park Factors (2025)
Worst Strikeout Park Factors (2025)
T-Mobile Park (SEA) 113
Coors Field (COL) 89
Daikin Park (HOU) 110
Busch Stadium (STL) 90
Citizens Bank Park (PHI) 107
Kauffman Stadium (KC) 91
Angel Stadium (LAA) 106
Chase Field (ARI) 92
American Family Field (MIL) 106
Fenway Park (BOS) 93
Progressive Field (CLE) 106
Rogers Centre (TOR) 94
T-Mobile Park
Not only does Seattle’s venue suppress scoring, but it also helps with strikeouts to a greater degree than any other venue. The ridiculous benefits of this park is a good reason to choose Logan Gilbert or Bryan Woo from the second tier of aces.
Daikin Park
The park formerly known as Minute Maid is the second-best venue for racking up whiffs. Unfortunately, beyond Hunter Brown, Houston lacks starters who are known for their swing-and-miss abilities. Still, Daikin Park could help newcomer Tatsuya Imai and offseason addition Mike Burrows exceed expectations.
The best of the rest
The second tier of strikeout stadiums includes Citizens Bank Park (Phillies), Angel Stadium (Angels), American Family Field (Brewers) and Progressive Field (Guardians). This would normally be the part where I mention starting pitchers who joined these teams in the offseason, but unfortunately, these four clubs failed to invest heavily in the offseason pitching market.
Strikeout suppressers
Coors Field
Is there any part of pitching that this park doesn’t ruin? The answer is no.
Busch Stadium
The venue in St. Louis is a polarizing one, as it limits scoring but also limits strikeouts. To make the problem even worse, the Cardinals have several starters who already struggle to put batters away. The ceiling is incredibly low for Matthew Liberatore, Dustin May and Michael McGreevy.
Kauffman Stadium
Although Cole Ragans is unfazed by the tendencies of his home park, the rest of the Royals rotation lacks the swing-and-miss ability to overcome this venue. That list includes Michael Wacha, Kris Bubic, Seth Lugo and Noah Cameron.
The worst of the rest
The next tier of venues that reduce strikeout totals includes Chase Field (Diamondbacks), Fenway Park (Red Sox) and Rogers Centre (Blue Jays). The Blue Jays added two notable pitchers (Dylan Cease, Cody Ponce), as did the Red Sox (Sonny Gray, Ranger Suárez). Fantasy managers may wish to knock a few whiffs off their projections.
Throughout the season, fantasy baseball writers will often refer to certain ballparks as hitter-friendly or pitcher-friendly. While we use those broad definitions to save space and maintain the flow of a paragraph, those terms do not always give the full picture of a ballpark. Additionally, some writers use the terms incorrectly, as they cling to impressions of ballparks that are outdated or were never accurate.
Here are the highlights of the 2025 Statcast ballpark data, which should be useful when setting draft rankings and lineups throughout the coming season:
Best Overall Park Factors (2025)
Worst Overall Park Factors (2025)
Coors Field (COL) 115
T-Mobile Park (SEA) 91
Sutter Health Park (ATH) 108
Globe Life Field (TEX) 91
Comerica Park (DET) 105
Progressive Field (CLE) 95
Dodger Stadium (LAD) 104
Petco Park (SD) 95
Oriole Park at Camden Yards (BAL) 103
PNC Park (PIT) 96
Fenway Park (BOS) 103
Kauffman Stadium (KC) 97
Rogers Centre (TOR) 103
loanDepot park (MIA) 97
Daikin Park (HOU) 97
Busch Stadium (STL) 97
Best HR Parks (2025)
Worst HR Parks (2025)
Dodger Stadium (LAD) 137
PNC Park (PIT) 66
Oriole Park at Camden Yards (BAL) 121
Busch Stadium (STL) 77
Rogers Centre (TOR) 118
Globe Life Field (TEX) 80
Citizens Bank Park (PHI) 117
Kauffman Stadium (KC) 83
Comerica Park (DET) 114
loanDepot park (MIA) 84
Sutter Health Park (ATH) 112
Oracle Park (SF) 84
Fenway Park (BOS) 84
Hitter-friendly parks
Coors Field
The hitter’s paradise in Colorado remains the top ballpark by a mile. It enhances home runs and batting average while reducing strikeouts. Most pitchers need to be benched in Colorado. Coors could help Rockies’ offseason additions Willi Castro and Jake McCarthy have their best seasons.
Sutter Health Park
Minor League parks often play well for hitters, which makes it unsurprising that the Athletics temporary home is a bandbox that maximizes power numbers and overall scoring. The time at Sutter Health is the best thing that could have happened to an organization that is flush with emerging offensive stars, such as Nick Kurtz, Jacob Wilson and Shea Langeliers.
Comerica Park
This one is surprising, as Comerica is usually more of a neutral park. In 2025, it was a top-five venue for both homers and runs. Hitters are known to have problems in Detroit during the cold weather in the spring, but the park played very well for hitters during the warmer months. Personally, I’m going to need to see more proof in 2026 before I value Comerica as a true hitter-friendly venue. It’s something to monitor as the season progresses.
Dodger Stadium
Many fans are so busy attributing the Dodgers’ high-scoring offense to their terrific talent that they overlook the contributions of a home ballpark that has become the best in baseball for producing home runs. The homer-happy nature of Dodger Stadium is another reason to want Kyle Tucker on your 2026 roster.
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Camden Yards ranked second in terms of inducing home runs, which led to a fifth-place finish in overall park factor. The changes to the outfield wall had significant effects, which is good news for the newest Orioles, such as Taylor Ward and Pete Alonso.
Pitcher-friendly parks
T-Mobile Park
T-Mobile is annually among the best venues for hurlers, as it not only suppresses run scoring but also accentuates strikeouts. Partly thanks to a historic season from Cal Raleigh, the Mariners ranked ninth in runs scored (766) last season. The club last scored more than 768 runs in 2007, which means that even with a talented group, their offense may be hampered by their park and take a small dip this year.
Globe Life Park
Globe Life has quickly emerged as one of baseball’s toughest parks on hitters. Corey Seager has managed to thrive anyway, but players such as Marcus Semien, Joc Pederson, Jake Burger, Adolis García and Jonah Heim have all had disappointing fantasy seasons as members of the Rangers in recent years. Fantasy managers shouldn’t get too carried away with projections for Texas hitters, including newcomer Brandon Nimmo.
Progressive Field
The combination of Progressive Field and Cleveland’s mediocre lineup should result in the Guardians finishing near the bottom of the league in runs scored for a second straight year. It’s another reason that I suggest being wary of investing too much in José Ramírez, who is supremely talented but needs to overcome some limiting factors this year.
Petco Park
Petco has long been known as a pitcher’s park. There isn’t much to glean from this selection from a fantasy perspective, as the Padres didn’t add many fantasy-relevant players in the offseason.
PNC Park
The Bucs’ home park plays well for doubles and triples, but in 2025, it was the toughest park in baseball to hit a home run. In fact, its HR park factor of 66 was far lower than the 29th total (77, Busch Stadium). The Pirates added a trio of power hitters in the offseason, Brandon Lowe, Marcell Ozuna and Ryan O’Hearn, who may be adversely affected by their new venue.
Myths, dispelled
— American Family Field in Milwaukee is widely regarded as a hitter’s park but leaned slightly to pitchers last year.
— Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati continues to accentuate home runs but was an average park for overall offense. The same thing can be said about Yankee Stadium.
— Oracle Park is regarded as one of the best venues for pitchers but was in the middle of the pack last season. It remains a tough park to hit home runs, though.
Handedness splits
Best Overall Park Factor – RHB (2025)
Worst Overall Park Factor RHB – 2025
Coors Field (COL) 115
Globe Life Field (TEX) 90
Sutter Health Park (ATH) 108
T-Mobile Park (SEA) 91
Chase Field (ARI) 106
Rate Field (CWS) 94
Rogers Centre (TOR) 105
Petco Park (SD) 95
Dodger Stadium (LAD) 105
Wrigley Field (CHC) 95
Citi Field NYM (95)
Best Overall Park Factor – LHB (2025)
Worst Overall Park Factor LHB – 2025
Coors Field (COL) 115
T-Mobile Park (SEA) 92
Sutter Health Park (OAK) 108
Progressive Field (CLE) 92
Oriole Park at Camden Yards (BAL) 108
Globe Life Field (TEX) 93
Comerica Park (DET) 106
PNC Park (PIT) 94
Fenway Park (BOS) 105
Petco Park (SD) 95
Citi Field (NYM) 105
— Citi Field was one of the most favorable parks for left-handed hitters but near the bottom of the list for righty batters. Unfortunately, three of the Mets most prominent newcomers, Bo Bichette, Marcus Semien and Luis Robert Jr., bat from the right side.
— Fenway Park is slightly favorable for right-handed hitters but one of the best parks in baseball for lefty batters, thanks to the pesky pole. Unfortunately, the newest members of Boston’s lineup, Willson Contreras and Caleb Durbin, bat from the right side.
— Chase Field and Rogers Centre had some similarities last year, as both parks were favorable for right-handed hitters and neutral for lefties. Fortunately, Toronto newcomer Kazuma Okamoto and D-backs addition Nolan Arenado bat from the right side.
