We wrote about sleeper starting pitchers, and now we’ll discuss potential breakouts heading into the 2026 fantasy baseball season. Sometimes there’s overlap in sleepers and breakouts, but the main difference involves confidence in a player breaking out in the following season. To define breakout starting pitchers, we’re looking at players who could drastically outperform their draft cost in the following season. 

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The draft market could be discounting this player, or we found skills to support a repeat or an improved level heading into the 2026 season. Here, we’ll provide five breakout candidates at the starting pitcher position based on the advanced data and underlying metrics. 

MacKenzie Gore, TEX

MacKenzie Gore was the only starting pitcher with three pitches eliciting a swinging-strike rate at 18% or higher. That includes Gore’s slider (19.5%), changeup (20%) and cutter (18.8%). It’s worth noting that Gore introduced a cutter in 2024, which he primarily threw to right-handed hitters (6%) in 2025, as his fourth-most thrown pitch. It was a small sample of Gore’s cutters, but they were effective for whiffs against righties and weaker contact (.253 wOBA, .259 xwOBA).

Gore changed his pitch mix against left-handed hitters, showing he understands that he needs to throw his best pitch (slider) more often. That’s evidenced by Gore throwing his slider 44.3% of the time against left-handed hitters (2025), up from 4.9% in 2024. Historically, Gore relied heavily on the four-seamer against lefties in 2024 (52.3%) and 2023 (57.1%).

Gore’s pitch mix change against lefties should continue to be fruitful because hitters destroyed the four-seamer in 2025 (.451 wOBA, .387 xwOBA) and 2024 (.385 wOBA, .373 xwOBA). Theoretically, Gore’s four-seamer should generate more whiffs and better results, given the movement profile. Gore’s four-seamer has above-average induced vertical break (IVB) with elite extension (89th percentile).

That suggests Gore’s four-seam locations could improve since he tends to throw it in the zone too often. When Gore threw the four-seamer in the zone in 2025, it led to a 12.6% swinging-strike rate, .367 wOBA and .382 xwOBA. Unfortunately, that’s not much better than when Gore throws the four-seamer outside the zone (.364 wOBA, .371 xwOBA). That hints at Gore’s four-seamer being unable to elicit weak contact, partially because it lacks arm-side fade. 

Thankfully, Gore likely knows that and continues to evolve his pitch mix to lower the four-seam usage. Beside the whiffs, Gore’s control can be an issue, with a 37% ball rate in 2025. The wild card in Gore’s favor involves the significantly better defense behind him on the Rangers. Last season, the Rangers’ team defense ranked first in defensive runs saved (DRS), while the Nationals (Gore’s former squad) ranked 27th. In Outs Above Average, the Rangers ranked sixth and the Nationals ranked 29th. 

Gore should provide plenty of strikeouts and a potentially improved WHIP, which could be better than his career norm (1.40). If Gore posts a 1.25 WHIP, there will be tons of value in the improved team context in 2026, as a starting pitcher breakout and sleeper. It’s a low-risk, high-reward draft selection. 

Ryan Weathers, NYY

Injuries have been a problem for Ryan Weathers, who hasn’t logged 100 innings throughout his five MLB seasons. In a small sample of 38 innings, Weathers posted a career-best swinging-strike rate (13.6%) after missing nearly 150 days (144) on the injured list for a strained forearm and lat strain. We saw Weathers’ four-seam velocity reach 96.9 mph in 2025, a career high. During a recent spring training outing, Weathers threw his four-seam harder, averaging 98.5 mph against the Nationals.

It might be scary for a pitcher with an extensive injury history to be ramping up their velocity early in spring training. However, we know that increased velocity can be beneficial from a whiff and weak contact standpoint. Notably, Weathers’ changeup and sinker were thrown over 1.5 mph harder in his recent spring training performance. Weathers made a pitch mix change by lowering his four-seam usage and bumping up sweeper usage. Monitor that adjustment, though it could be small-sample noise. 

The main concern for the changeup would be losing downward movement with the additional velocity. Theoretically, it could lead to fewer whiffs, especially to right-handed hitters. For context, Weathers’ changeup elicited a 20.7% swinging-strike rate, over five percentage points above the league average.

In Weathers’ spring training outing, he tinkered with throwing more sweepers, particularly to lefties (45%). Weathers threw sweepers 27.8% of the time in 2025, but we saw him experiment with heavy sweeper usage at 35.1% in 2024 against left-handed hitters. That would be an optimal approach because Weathers’ sweeper remains one of his best pitches, allowing a .221 wOBA (.153 xwOBA). Interestingly, the changeup was relatively effective against lefties (.250 wOBA, .184 xwOBA). Weathers threw his changeup more against left-handed hitters in 2025 (18.3%) across a small sample, up from 10.8% in 2024. 

Weathers has been going past pick 200 as one of the final picks in drafts. Expect his ADP to rise, but the price bakes in the injury risk for a potential breakout season in 2026. The increased velocity, pitch mix change and improved team context support the upside scenario. 

Trevor Rogers, BAL

We need to go back to 2021, when Trevor Rogers had an ERA under 4.00, before the 1.18 ERA in 2025. There will be a regression for Rogers, given his 3.56 xERA. The four-seam velocity improved to 93.1 mph in 2025, up from 91.9 mph in 2024 and much closer to the 93-95 mph before that. Rogers boasts an above-average 12.7% swinging-strike rate, headlined by his slider (17.6%) and changeup (14.3%).

The changeup used to be nastier, with peak seasons generating a 20% swinging-strike rate (2023) compared to a career average at 15.4%. Rogers’ changeup possesses an above-average movement profile, similar to the peak seasons for whiffs. That suggests there’s a good chance Rogers’ changeup whiffs bounce back to the near-elite levels in 2026.

Interestingly, his changeup has been decent but not dominant against right-handed hitters, particularly in terms of contact quality. That’s evident in Rogers’ changeup, which allowed a .248 wOBA (.308 xwOBA) in 2025, slightly better than in 2024 (.334 wOBA, .300 xwOBA). We typically find changeups being effective against opposite-handed hitters, especially if they can generate whiffs. Overall, Rogers tends to locate the changeup well, low and below the zone against righties.

However, it’s worth highlighting Rogers’ changeup found success against left-handed hitters (.166 wOBA, .244 xwOBA, 17% swinging-strike rate) in the small sample of 136 changeups over the past two seasons (2024-2025). Since Rogers throws from a low arm angle (22 degrees), his sinker seems to tunnel with the changeup and fade toward his arm side at an above-average rate. However, Rogers tends to struggle with the sinker command, given the sporadic heatmaps and inconsistent outcomes over the past two seasons. 

Rogers added a sweeper in 2025, throwing it 11% of the time versus left-handed hitters and 6.4% of the time against righties. The sweeper is a slower version of the slider, with downward movement that’s nearly identical, yet sweeps over two inches toward his glove side compared to the slider. Although it’s Rogers’ fifth-most-used pitch against either side of the plate, it provides something different, more toward his glove side than the rest of his arsenal. 

Rogers already showed us the potential ace-like upside in 2025 across 109 innings. Assuming the outcomes regress, there are still above-average strikeout skills. We could argue that Rogers already broke out in 2025, but the draft price around pick 150 suggests drafters don’t believe in sustainable success in 2026. Prioritize Rogers as a potential full-season breakout starting pitcher where he significantly outperforms his projected value. 

Emmet Sheehan, LAD

Like Rogers, some might say Emmet Sheehan already broke out in 2025 after a 73-inning sample with a 2.82 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 23% K-BB%, and 16.2% swinging-strike rate. That’s near-elite upside for a starting pitcher, though it’s a limited sample throughout his MLB career. We can’t emphasize enough how rare it is to find a starting pitcher with a swinging-strike rate at 16% or higher. In 2025, Sheehan trailed Tarik Skubal (16.8%) as the only two starting pitchers with a 16% swinging-strike rate, with a minimum of 50 innings pitched.

For context, Blake Snell (16.3%) and Garrett Crochet (16.2%) reached that mark in 2024, with Spencer Strider (18.9%) and Tyler Glasnow (16.4%) as the only two in 2023 with a swinging-strike rate at 16% or higher. During Sheehan’s debut season, his slider (19.6%) and changeup (22%) were nasty pitches in terms of swinging-strike rate. For context, the slider and changeup were 3-7 percentage points above the league average in swinging-strike rate.

However, we saw Sheehan’s slider take a step forward, eliciting a 23.3% swinging-strike rate. Meanwhile, Sheehan’s changeup regressed to a 13.6% swinging-strike rate in 2025. Sheehan threw from a higher arm angle (35 degrees) in 2025 compared to 30 degrees in 2023. That coincided with Sheehan’s changeup losing over 4 inches of arm side fade. Thankfully, Sheehan continued to find success via the changeup against left-handed hitters, allowing a .155 wOBA (.201 xwOBA) in 2025.

If Sheehan’s slider and changeup can be above-average pitches for whiffs and weak contact, that would unlock another level. That’s mainly because he already throws a four-seamer that added over 2 inches of induced vertical break (17.9 inches). Sheehan’s four-seam went from mediocre to above-average in IVB in 2025, as a heater he locates in the upper third of the zone. 

Sheehan’s strikeout skills can reach those near-elite levels, though it’s a matter of health and volume for him in 2026. Assuming the ratios regress, Sheehan should have a breakout season where he hits career highs across most categories, even if it’s on a per-inning basis. That said, drafters haven’t been sleeping on Sheehan, as he currently holds an ADP of 155.3, and that could climb.

Nick Lodolo, CIN

Nick Lodolo had his best season in 2025, but the draft market has been cautious on him heading into 2026. Maybe it’s because Lodolo’s skills have been consistent (boring) and his home park remains in Cincinnati (one of the best hitter’s parks in MLB), but there are several aspects to like in Lodolo as an SP2 or SP3 with upside. Lodolo lowered his arm angle in 2025 (15 degrees) compared to around 19-22 degrees. That leads to Lodolo’s pitch movement profiles being heavier into horizontal movement. 

Lodolo’s changeup (14.1%) and curveball (19.5%) have been key pieces of his arsenal from a swinging-strike standpoint in 2025, similar to his career averages. Interestingly, Lodolo started throwing more changeups to right-handed hitters in 2025 (27.5%) compared to 2024 (20.2%). The changeup continued to be one of his better pitches against righties (.246 wOBA, .301 xwOBA) as one of three pitches, allowing a wOBA under .300, including the four-seam (.258 wOBA, .249 xwOBA) and curveball (.259 wOBA, .233 xwOBA).

Lodolo’s curveball has been his only pitch that moves toward his glove side, coming from a lower arm angle. He relied heavily on the curveball in 2025 (43.8%) compared to 2024 (37.3%) and 2023 (49.5%) against left-handed hitters. That aligns with the quality outcomes via the curveball against left-handed hitters, leading to a .263 wOBA (.166 xwOBA) in 2025 compared to a .271 wOBA (.180 xwOBA) in 2024. 

Interestingly, Lodolo continued to lower his arm angle when throwing the curveball from 18.8 degrees (2024) to 15.9 degrees (2025). He has been using a slightly lower vertical release point with the horizontal release fluctuating throughout his career. Although it’s unusual, Lodolo’s curveball has been his best pitch, ranking 13th in Stuff+ for curveballs among pitchers with 100 innings pitched. 

Chase Burns (127 ADP) has been garnering tons of love in the Reds’ starting rotation. However, don’t forget about Lodolo, who goes later in drafts, but hasn’t been valued as a potential breakout starting pitcher in 2026.

There were 24 relief pitchers who saw an increase by five or more save opportunities while converting five or more saves in 2025 compared to 2024. When we filter down to which relievers had 15 or more saves in 2025 than in 2024, the list shrinks to eight players. Relievers that met those thresholds include Andrés Muñoz, Aroldis Chapman, Cade Smith, Carlos Estévez, Daniel Palencia, Emilio Pagán, Jeff Hoffman and Will Vest. We have a mixture of relievers with closer experience seeing a higher workload and pitchers who consistently earned save chances with success in 2025.

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The visual below shows the relievers who met the previous threshold of five or more save opportunities and five or more saves in 2025 than in 2024:

On the flip side, the list of relievers who saw their save opportunities and conversions drop by five or more includes Camilo Doval, Emmanuel Clase, José Alvarado, Josh Hader, Kyle Finnegan, Mason Miller and Ryan Helsley. Alvarado was the only reliever with single-digit saves. Doval was leading the Giants in saves (15), though Ryan Walker ate into his save chances, with 10 in the first half of the season before Doval was traded to the Yankees.

Meanwhile, Clase missed the final two months after being investigated for alleged gambling charges, so Cade Smith took on a heftier load. Similar to Doval, Helsley was traded to another team (Mets), and he didn’t convert a save in the second half out of four chances. Helsley signed with the Orioles and should slide into the primary closer for the new team (more on him below). Similarly, Finnegan was traded from the Nationals to the Tigers. Finnegan logged four saves out of five chances in the second half of the season with the Tigers. 

This data reminds us that the closer market can have consistent players to target while understanding there can be volatility with trades, injuries and player struggles. We have several potential reliever targets, fades and sleepers to consider during draft season. 

More positional previews

• Catcher

• First Base

• Second Base

• Third Base

• Shortstop

• Outfield

• Starting Pitcher

• Relief Pitcher

Proactive Picks

Ryan Helsley, Orioles (Yahoo ADP 140.5)

Ryan Helsley signed with the Orioles, filling a void with Félix Bautista undergoing shoulder surgery in August 2025. After a career season of 49 saves in 2024, the Cardinals traded Helsley to the Mets, leading to a significant role change. The 2025 ratios were awful for Helsley, though his 4.03 xERA and 15% swinging-strike suggested the skills still existed, with poor luck. Regression was expected for Helsley, though, after a 2.04 ERA, 3.52 xERA and an 18% swinging-strike rate in 2024.

Helsley’s slider was nasty, eliciting a 23.1% swinging-strike rate, as a pitch he throws often to right-handed hitters (52.7%) and lefties (41.8%). He throws a high-velocity, gyro-like slider that makes hitters chase it outside the zone, with a career 40.3% chase rate. We want at least one dominant pitch for a closer, which Helsley possesses. 

Meanwhile, Helsley’s four-seamer has been crushed against right-handed hitters (.526 wOBA, .455 xwOBA) and left-handed hitters (.471 wOBA, .375 xwOBA). That’s concerning because Helsley’s four-seam generates above-average induced vertical break while paired with above-average extension that comes from a high arm slot (62 degrees). He might be trying to pound the heater in the zone, expecting to find success, though he may benefit from lowering the zone rates. For context, Helsley threw the four-seamer in the zone 60 to 61% of the time over the past two seasons. 

If Helsley makes a small tweak to the four-seam locations, we will have more confidence in his dominance. Regardless, Helsley should be the leading closer option for the Orioles after they relied on Keegan Akin (8 saves), Dietrich Enns (2 saves), and Corbin Martin (2) with Bautista sidelined. 

Ryan Walker, Giants (Yahoo ADP 192.3)

Once Doval was traded, Ryan Walker had seven saves with Spencer Bivens (3) and Tristan Beck (2) being the other relievers with save conversions in the second half of the season. Walker comes at hitters from a low arm and cross-body approach, which likely involves volatility in his command. Interestingly, Walker’s swinging-strike rate fell to 9% in 2025 after being around 12-13% in the previous two seasons. That’s slightly concerning to have a reliever earning save chances with below-average stuff from a whiff standpoint.

Walker’s slider typically had been filthy, inducing an 18% swinging-strike rate throughout his career. Unfortunately, Walker’s slider swinging-strike rate fell to 12.8% in 2025. The slider’s pitch movement profiles hadn’t changed much, with 14-15 inches of glove-side sweep. There’s a good chance that the slider’s whiffs and results regressed based on the pitch locations.

When Walker left the slider in the zone, right-handed hitters were crushing it in 2025. That’s evident by Walker’s slider allowing a .294 wOBA (.307 xwOBA) in 2025 and a .256 wOBA (.271 xwOBA) in 2024 against right-handed hitters when thrown in the zone.

Nonetheless, with Doval gone, Walker should eat up the majority of the Giants’ save chances.

The one wild card involves the Giants having a new manager in Tony Vitello, who comes from the college ranks formerly as the coach at the University of Tennessee. Will Vitello rely on Walker or make it somewhat of a closer committee in San Francisco? Walker’s draft price is somewhat discounted, making him an interesting mid-round second closer to target.

Fades

Daniel Palencia, Cubs (Yahoo ADP 171.1)

The Cubs tried to lean on veteran Ryan Pressly as their closer in 2025, but he struggled and they turned to Daniel Palencia, who was one of the waiver-wire gems at the closer position in 2025. He dealt with a shoulder strain in early September, then returned later that month. There’s a chance Palencia could take another step forward in 2026, given the above-average 13.6% swinging-strike rate. Like other relievers, Palencia struggled with control, though his ball rate improved to 34% after being around 39-40% in the previous two seasons.

Palencia’s slider continues to headline his arsenal, with a 19.6% swinging-strike rate in 2025, compared to a career average of 21.5%. The slider added nearly three inches of downward movement in 2025, as a breaking ball that he throws low and away to right-handed hitters. Palencia’s slider generates whiffs and weak contact (.231 wOBA, .175 xwOBA) against right-handed hitters in 2025.

Unfortunately, left-handed hitters crushed Palencia’s slider (.383 wOBA, .313 xwOBA) and four-seamer (.352 wOBA, .366 xwOBA). That suggests Palencia needs an offering to suppress left-handed hitters or they’ll continue to do damage. He sprinkled in a splitter 38 times (8.6%) that allowed a .147 wOBA (.225 xwOBA) against lefties in 2025. It’s easier said than done, but it would benefit Palencia to work on developing a splitter to attack lefties.

That said, if Palencia struggles to find another pitch to address the issues against left-handed hitters, we could see the Cubs turn toward Phil Maton or Hunter Harvey. 

Trevor Megill, Brewers (Yahoo ADP 158.1)

Trevor Megill (6) and Abner Uribe (5) shared save chances in the second half of the 2025 season. Megill dealt with an elbow strain in late August, causing him to miss over one month before returning in late September. It’s concerning when a pitcher ends the season injured; hard to have injury optimism heading into the following season. That’s especially true with Megill, who averaged over one month on the injured list in four of the past five seasons.

Megill has been successful, compiling 51 saves over the past two seasons. The skills support Megill’s save chances, evidenced by a 32% ball rate and a nearly 15% swinging-strike rate over the past two seasons. Megill saw the ratios improve late in the 2025 season, with a slight uptick in his swinging-strike rate. We’re not denying Megill’s skills and recent track record, but there’s a good chance Megill misses time again in 2026, opening the door for Uribe. 

Uribe’s stuff finally led to save chances in 2025, though there should be some ratio regression, since he had a 2.80 xERA, over one run higher than his actual ERA (1.67). With Uribe’s sinker and slider mix, he provides that optimal groundball and strikeout approach. That’s evident in Uribe’s sinker generating a 64% groundball rate and the slider inducing a 19% swinging-strike rate. 

The draft market has been torn on Megill and Uribe, but we prefer to take a chance on Uribe since he possesses the stuff to generate whiffs and weak contact, without the injury history of Megill. 

Sleepers

Dennis Santana, Pirates (Yahoo ADP 181.9)

In the second half of the season, Dennis Santana had 10 of the 12 saves for the Pirates. They traded David Bednar to the Yankees, aligning with Santana earning save chances. Bednar struggled in 2024, and Aroldis Chapman stole save opportunities. Santana has been waiting for his chance, and he performed relatively well in 2025. 

He might be due for regression since he outperformed his expected ERA (3.96), with an actual ERA of 2.18. Santana showed better control, with a 30% ball rate in 2025 compared to a career ball rate at 34%. Meanwhile, Santana’s swinging-strike rate was above 13% again in 2025, suggesting there’s above-average stuff, but not near-elite. However, Santana does have one near-elite pitch for whiffs via the slider, given a 20.1% swinging-strike rate. 

As Santana should, he increased his slider usage to 46.4% in 2025, up from 32.3% in 2024. Santana made a 10 percentage point increase in usage to right-handed hitters (49.3%) with a 20-point jump to lefties (42.5%). Interestingly, Santana’s slider doesn’t have an above-average movement profile, yet it generates weak contact against righties (.207 wOBA, .222 xwOBA) and lefties (.225 wOBA, .270 xwOBA). 

That could suggest Santana commands his slider well since it doesn’t have a filthy movement profile. Or Santana’s slider keeps hitters guessing with another pitch having a similar profile, which can be seen via the induced movement profiles above. It’s probably a mixture of both factors, with the cutter being a harder-thrown version of the slider. Santana’s cutter elicits weak contact (.265 wOBA, .322 xwOBA) to right-handed hitters. However, Santana’s cutters tend to be less effective against lefties (.313 wOBA, .317 xwOBA) in 2025. 

Besides Bednar, Santana had the highest game leverage index on the Pirates, showing the team trusts him in high-leverage situations. Santana fits nicely as an RP2 for around 25 saves at a cheaper draft cost.

Pete Fairbanks, Marlins (Yahoo ADP 163.7)

Pete Fairbanks logged 20 or more saves for three consecutive seasons, though he earned 77% of the team’s saves in 2025, which was unusual. For context, Fairbanks had 45% of the team’s saves in 2024 and 60% of the team’s saves in 2023. It’s worth noting that Fairbanks has dealt with his fair share of injuries in 2023 and 2024, causing him to miss over one month in both seasons. Meanwhile, Fairbanks was healthy in 2025.

He signed with the Marlins in December on a one-year deal worth $13 million, so it’s a low-risk investment for the Marlins that they could move at the trade deadline. When healthy, Fairbanks typically performed well with the strikeout skills to support the outcomes. Fairbanks had a 12.8% swinging-strike rate in 2025, with a career low in 2024 (9.5%). However, Fairbanks boasted a swinging-strike rate north of 13% throughout his career. 

Interestingly, Fairbanks’s slider took a slight step back from a whiff standpoint, with a 13% swinging-strike rate in 2025 and 10.3% in 2024. That aligns with the overall dip in swinging-strike rate during the past two seasons. The slider’s movement profile suggests more whiffs on breaking pitch that generates 6.5 inches more downward movement than the average slider. Typically, we find pitches that possess more vertical movement tend to elicit more whiffs.

My guess would be slider locations might be an issue, though a reliever’s pitches can be volatile in smaller samples. Based on the slider heatmaps, it looks like he might be throwing it too often in the heart of the zone, which leads opposing hitters to wait on the slider. We’ve heard rumors that the Rays’ pitchers have been instructed to throw their best pitches in the heart of the zone, to see whether opposing hitters can hit them. Fairbanks may want to focus on a location adjustment for the slider if the high-end downward movement isn’t generating the expected whiffs.

The other concern involves Fairbanks having potential left-handed hitter problems. Left-handed hitters have been doing damage and making loud contact against the four-seamer over the past two seasons, with the slider being decent, but not dominant. That’s especially true since left-handed hitters have been crushing the heater, evidenced by a .341 wOBA (.376 xwOBA) in 2025 and a .379 wOBA (.369 xwOBA) in 2024. Fairbanks may want to develop the changeup that he hardly uses, with a career 18% swinging-strike rate. Furthermore, Fairbanks’s changeup allowed a .204 wOBA (.232 xwOBA) against left-handed hitters in a small sample of 40 pitches in 2025. 

The Marlins have been rotating relievers as their primary closer. A.J. Puk (15), Tanner Scott (12) and Dylan Floro (7) led the Marlins in saves in 2023. Scott (18) and Calvin Faucher (6) were the only two Marlins’ relievers with five or more saves in 2024. Then Faucher (15) led the team in saves with Ronny Henriquez (7) sneaking into the mix in 2025. Faucher still remains on the Marlins, but Fairbanks showed he can handle the majority of the team’s save opportunities with the Rays across multiple seasons. 

Griffin Jax/Edwin Uceta, Rays (Yahoo ADPs: 204, 203.3)

The Rays value stuff, as they rank second in Stuff+ behind the Phillies. Griffin Jax possesses near-elite stuff, evidenced by two primary pitches eliciting a swinging-strike rate above 21% via the slider (21.1%) and changeup (27%). Jax’s sweeper is nasty against right-handed hitters, allowing a .149 wOBA (.168 xwOBA). On the flip side, Jax’s changeup serves as a deadly option to lefties, with a .146 wOBA (.150 xwOBA).

Edwin Uceta could be in the mix for saves with Jax, making this a muddy reliever room to figure out. Uceta’s arsenal doesn’t grade well in Stuff models, likely because he throws from a lower arm angle (14 degrees), giving him a Luis Castillo-type arm slot. He throws two pitches with an above-average swinging-strike rate, including the four-seam (17.6%) and changeup (19.1%). 

With the lower armslot, Uceta’s changeup and four-seam seem to have reverse splits, where the changeup performs better against right-handed hitters (.191 wOBA, .258 xwOBA) and four-seam is better against lefties (.221 wOBA, .227 xwOBA).

Uceta’s draft price has been slightly lower than Jax’s. We’ll want to take shots at the Rays’ closer options, but don’t over-invest in either one.

Top-12 RP rankings

1. Mason Miller, Padres

2. Edwin Díaz, Dodgers

3. Cade Smith, Guardians

4. Andrés Muñoz, Mariners

5. Jhoan Duran, Phillies

6. Devin Williams, Mets

7. David Bednar, Yankees

8. Aroldis Chapman, Red Sox

9. Jeff Hoffman, Blue Jays

10. Ryan Helsley, Orioles

11. Raisel Iglesias, Braves

12. Ryan Walker, Giants

We’re in the age of advanced metrics, Statcast data and pitcher “stuff” being the top headlines in real-life and fantasy baseball. Fastball velocity has been increasing each season, with an average velocity of 93.6 mph — the highest in the Statcast era (since 2008). We’ve seen fastball velocity gradually rise, averaging over 93 mph for four straight seasons after hovering between 92-93 mph throughout the 2013 to 2021 seasons.

With more “stuff” models and advanced data telling us non-fastballs might be more optimal, we’ve seen the percentage of fastballs fall to 54.8% in 2025, with a consistent decline since 2019. For context, 2019 was the first season where the league-wide fastball usage was below 60%.

So, what pitch types increased the most over the past few seasons? 

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1. Tarik Skubal, Tigers

2. Paul Skenes, Pirates

3. Garrett Crochet, Red Sox

4. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers

5. Hunter Brown, Astros

6. Cristopher Sánchez, Phillies

7. Jacob deGrom, Rangers

8. Logan Gilbert, Mariners

9. Chris Sale, Braves

10. Max Fried, Yankees

11. George Kirby, Mariners

12. Logan Webb, Giants

You can find our complete starting pitcher rankings for the 2026 fantasy baseball season here.

Shortstop is the fun zone of fantasy baseball, the donut shop with endless variety. Everything you want is here, just choose your own adventure. A whopping 16 players with shortstop eligibility finished in the top 100 fantasy players last season, assuming a 5×5 scoring system.

[Draft your Yahoo Fantasy Baseball team for the 2026 MLB Season]

In an earlier era, the shortstop position was seen as “glove first, hitting a bonus” situation, but that’s gone the way of the dinosaur now. MLB clubs understand you need offense and defense at this critical spot.

Because the position has so many good options, you don’t really need a specific strategy for filling the shortstop spot. You’re going to draft these guys by accident because you’re focused on getting the offensive stats you need. Take note that if your league requires starting a utility middle in addition to a second baseman and shortstop, that UM player will probably be a shortstop because that position is considerably deeper.

More positional previews

• Catcher

• First Base

• Second Base

• Third Base

• Shortstop

• Outfield

• Starting Pitcher

• Relief Pitcher

Proactive Picks

Zach Neto, Angels (Yahoo ADP 39.0)

Neto won’t be a screaming bargain, but he’s likely undervalued simply because he missed 36 games last year and it slightly muted his counting stats. Neto has improved his average every season and already has the category juice you demand in the early rounds. Even with a pedestrian Anaheim lineup supporting him, I’ll consider Neto in the second round and pounce on him in the third. You want players on the escalator, and Neto steps into his age-25 season.

Geraldo Perdomo, Diamondbacks (ADP 62.9)

Perdomo was the No. 11 player in 5×5 value last year but his ADP is nowhere near that for the fresh season. This presents an attractive “regress and win” opportunity where Perdomo can actually give back a significant amount of last year’s stats and still be a fantasy profit. Perdomo is a high-percentage base stealer, just entering his age-26 season, so I’m not worried about that column. And he’s the rare player who had more walks than strikeouts last year, and those players are always attractive targets. Maybe the 20 homers won’t come back, but there’s enough broad profile here to make Perdomo a cornerstone player.

Colson Montgomery, White Sox (ADP 160.9)

It’s fair to worry about the average, which was .239 with the White Sox last year and just .246 during 376 games in the minors. But Montgomery at least does exciting things when he does make contact, conking 21 homers in just 255 at-bats with Chicago. His Baseball Savant page is full of validation, with plus marks in expected slugging, hard-hit rate, barrel rate and bat speed. Montgomery feels like a cinch for 30-plus homers and he’ll get extra volume as the No. 3 hitter in Chicago. Picking him might require some batting average care later, but we can manage that.

[Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Baseball league for the 2026 MLB season]

Likely Fades

Mookie Betts, Dodgers (ADP 38.5)

I’ve often stated that you never lose money on a player like Betts, but maybe the loss years are here. It’s his age-33 season. The steals have all but evaporated. He’s playing a more demanding defensive position. His OPS+ last year was merely 104, slightly above the league mean. He’s also coming off his worst season in all three slash columns. Player ascension isn’t always linear, but player decline almost always is. I take no joy in writing any of this, because Betts himself is a joy. 

Corey Seager, Rangers (ADP 65.9)

It hurt me to fade Betts above and the same applies to Seager, one of the best hitters in baseball. Seager’s plate discipline is so perfect that there’s a popular zone-judgment metric that’s named after him. But the reality is that Seager has played just one full season out of the last seven (ignoring the 2020 truncated year) and that’s not a trend to swim against as he turns 32. Seager’s average has dropped into the .270s the last two years and he’s never been interested in stealing bases. I’ll stay open-minded if his price slips in my rooms, but I can’t consider him at current ADP.

Carlos Correa, Astros (ADP 200)

Esteemed colleague Fred Zinkie listed Correa as one of his third base sleepers, and I know from experience that disagreeing with Fred is not a +EV strategy. But I’d like to point out that Correa’s Yahoo ADP is about 60 spots higher than his global ADP, and he’s always going to carry batting-average and injury risk, in addition to the zero you’ll get in the stolen base column. This is also the weakest Houston lineup we’ve seen in a while; the Astros were 21st in runs scored last season.

Sleepers

Otto Lopez, Marlins (ADP 213.1)

Lopez already showed us category juice last year (15 homers, 15 steals), and his .246 average is somewhat misleading. Lopez gets plus marks for his contact rate and zone discipline, and his expected average based on contact data was a solid .269. The typical Miami discount applies, too; it’s a fairly pedestrian roster, which often makes players like Lopez a few rounds cheaper in drafts than is justified.

Ezequiel Tovar, Rockies (ADP 197.7)

Let’s play some Occam’s Razor with the Tovar case. He plays in Colorado. He was a 26-homer guy two years ago. The 2025 mess is mostly excused by injury. Tovar will swing at just about anything but he’s maintained a career .258 average despite that approach. He also has a reasonable chance at double-digit steals over a full season.

2026 top-12 shortstop rankings

1. Bobby Witt Jr., Royals

2. Elly De La Cruz, Reds

3. Gunnar Henderson, Orioles

4. Francisco Lindor, Mets

5. Zach Neto, Angels

6. Trea Turner, Phillies

7. Mookie Betts, Dodgers

8. Geraldo Perdomo, Diamondbacks

9. Corey Seager, Rangers

10. Jeremy Peña, Astros

11. Bo Bichette, Mets

12. Maikel Garcia, Royals

You can find our complete shortstop rankings for the 2026 fantasy baseball season here.

Kennesaw State survived the drama of a midseason point shaving scandal to return to the NCAA Tournament.

Its best player will not make the trip. Simeon Cottle, who was among four active players exposed in the scheme, remains suspended from all team activities.

The preseason Conference USA Player of the Year, Cottle started the year hot by averaging 20.2 points, 3.8 assists and 1.5 steals over 17 games. Then came the bombshell report that Cottle underperformed in exchange for money, resulting in federal charges and a screeching halt to his basketball career.

When the news first broke, however, Kennesaw State coach Antoine Pettway put the blame on “predators” who influenced Cottle.

“You’re being a predator online and you’re reaching out to them, getting these dudes to mess up,” Pettway said, per ESPN. “Because there’s a lot of dudes on that list that you feel bad for, that they’ve got a long road ahead of them because, in the dark, a grown-up reached out to them and led them down the wrong path.”

Credit to Kennesaw State’s focus to make it to March Madness despite all the noise.

This article originally appeared on For The Win: Will Simeon Cottle play in March Madness after point shaving scandal?

It only took Kennesaw State two seasons in Conference USA to win the league title — even after a 10-10 run through conference play. The Owls rolled through the C-USA Tournament, winning three games in the gauntlet structure all by six points or more.

That gives Kennesaw State the chance to win its first-ever Division I NCAA Men’s Tournament game when it takes on Gonzaga late on Thursday night. The Owls were 2004’s national champion, but that was back at the Division II level (and came via a series of blowouts. Hoooo, buddy.). Toppling the Bulldogs would open the next chapter of the program’s hardwood success, but it won’t be easy.

So how far is Kennesaw State’s trip to its first round game in Portland, Oregon?

Kennesaw State is in the Atlanta metropolitan area

Kennesaw State has two campuses. One is in, unsurprisingly, Kennesaw, Georgia. That’s about 25 miles northwest of Atlanta or, given Atlanta traffic, about an hour’s drive. That’s where the school’s athletic facilities are located.

The other location is in nearby Marietta. That’s roughly 18 miles northwest of Atlanta.

This article originally appeared on For The Win: Where is Kennesaw State located as Owls play in March Madness?

The Golden State Warriors have had over 600 players don the more than 60 jersey numbers used by their players over the more than 75 years of existence the team has enjoyed in its rich and storied history.

Founded in 1946 during the Basketball Association of America (BAA – a precursor league of the NBA) era, the team has called home the cities of Philadelphia, San Francisco, Oakland, and even San Diego.

To commemorate the players who wore those numbers, Warriors Wire is covering the entire history of jersey numbers and the players who sported them since the founding of the team. For this article, we begin with the second of nine players who wore the No. 55 jersey for the Warriors.

That player would be Golden State big man alum Chris Engler. After ending his college career at Wyoming, Engler was picked up with the 60th overall selection of the 1982 NBA Draft by the Golden State Warriors.

The Stillwater, Minnesota native played the first two seasons of his pro career with the Dubs before he was cut in 1984.

During his time suiting up for the Warriors, Engler wore only jersey No. 55 and put up 1.6 points and 1.3 rebounds per game.

All stats and data courtesy of Basketball Reference.

This article originally appeared on Warriors Wire: Warriors jersey history – No. 55 – Chris Engler (1982-84)

A night game – and this one was actually scheduled this way, rather than being pushed back to the night to avoid the heat! Can’t say I blame anyone though. A high of 103 F today is just… wrong for mid-March, and it’s only a couple of degrees cooler than that now. Forecast high of 105 F tomorrow. Dear lord. I’m starting the countdown to the annual declaration by Mrs. SnakePit that she can’t take it any more, and we need to move. Don’t think we’ve ever previously had that discussion before Opening Day. Speaking of which, a week from now, things will be under way in games that matter…

Under the lights in Glendale. pic.twitter.com/iJLLWGRPwt

— Arizona Diamondbacks (@Dbacks) March 19, 2026

Definitely an A-bullpen kinda day, with all the scheduled pitchers after Michael Soroka being ones with a non-zero chance of making the Opening Day roster. Specifically: RHP Kevin Ginkel, RHP Ryan Thompson, LHP Brandyn Garcia, RHP Jonathan Loaisiga and RHP Andrew Hoffmann. Garcia might be the one on thinnest ice, after a pair of spectacularly bad outings. Eleven batters faced, two outs – three hits, four walks and two hit batters. One more appearance like that and there’ll almost be no way back for him, considering there are only a handful of spring games left.

No broadcast apparently for this one, so you are on your own. Recappage should follow, but I’ll be on my phone, so it may be short and/or misspelled.

And, for the nightcap, here’s your major league spring training lineup for the Guardians: